Sunday’s Bundesliga game between St. Pauli and Union Berlin, which is the second Bundesliga game of the afternoon, rates as a game where goals look generously priced, so much so that two goal-focused bets are worth placing. Here’s why:
For starters, both teams were involved in fairly high-scoring games when last in action, while the goals have typically flowed for the hosts this season, due mainly to a severe lack of defensive solidity. Each of their last six home games in all competitions has produced at least three goals, with three of those six containing four or more goals.
Interestingly, at home, the hosts have scored an average of 1.2 goals, conceding an average of 2.6. They’ve created an average of 1.28 xG, conceding an average of 1.54. On the road, the visitors have scored an average of 1.00 goals, conceding an average of 2.25.
Frankly, both teams look very weak at the back and thus this should be seen as an opportunity by both to score some goals, ultimately promoting an open and attacking game.
Using all key data here, I’ve modelled goal expectancies of 1.66 and 1.53 for this fixture, which then allows me to model fair odds of 1.61 and 1.98 for the two bets above, leaving the available odds looking very generous indeed.
For starters, both teams were involved in fairly high-scoring games when last in action, while the goals have typically flowed for the hosts this season, due mainly to a severe lack of defensive solidity. Each of their last six home games in all competitions has produced at least three goals, with three of those six containing four or more goals.
Interestingly, at home, the hosts have scored an average of 1.2 goals, conceding an average of 2.6. They’ve created an average of 1.28 xG, conceding an average of 1.54. On the road, the visitors have scored an average of 1.00 goals, conceding an average of 2.25.
Frankly, both teams look very weak at the back and thus this should be seen as an opportunity by both to score some goals, ultimately promoting an open and attacking game.
Using all key data here, I’ve modelled goal expectancies of 1.66 and 1.53 for this fixture, which then allows me to model fair odds of 1.61 and 1.98 for the two bets above, leaving the available odds looking very generous indeed.
🇮🇹 Serie A 🇮🇹
Monday 19:45 GMT/20:45 CET/14:45 EST
Sassuolo vs Pisa
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.22
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Monday 19:45 GMT/20:45 CET/14:45 EST
Sassuolo vs Pisa
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.22
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Monday’s aren’t always the best for soccer bettors, but on this particular Monday evening, there are a few interesting games, the first of which is the one between Sassuolo and Pisa, which takes place at Mapei Stadium. Ahead of this clash, Over 2.5 Goals looks like a good bet.
The goals have been going in quite regularly for the hosts in recent games, and let’s face it, they should approach this game feeling very confident indeed having recently scored three goals against Atalanta. When they last played at home, three goals were scored.
Defensively, the Sassuolo boys aren’t too secure, conceding in each of their last three at home, but they certainly pack a punch offensively, which bodes well for the hosts given that the Pisa boys concede lots of goals on the road. Four of Pisa’s last five on the road have contained three or more goals.
Interestingly, away from home, Monday’s visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals, conceding an average of 2.4. Certainly not low-scoring. They’ve also created an average of 1.33 xG, conceding an average of 1.91.
Ultimately, using all essential data, I have modelled goal expectancies of 1.59 and 1.30 for this game, allowing me to model fair odds of 1.79. Basically, odds of 2.22 are very generous indeed.
The goals have been going in quite regularly for the hosts in recent games, and let’s face it, they should approach this game feeling very confident indeed having recently scored three goals against Atalanta. When they last played at home, three goals were scored.
Defensively, the Sassuolo boys aren’t too secure, conceding in each of their last three at home, but they certainly pack a punch offensively, which bodes well for the hosts given that the Pisa boys concede lots of goals on the road. Four of Pisa’s last five on the road have contained three or more goals.
Interestingly, away from home, Monday’s visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals, conceding an average of 2.4. Certainly not low-scoring. They’ve also created an average of 1.33 xG, conceding an average of 1.91.
Ultimately, using all essential data, I have modelled goal expectancies of 1.59 and 1.30 for this game, allowing me to model fair odds of 1.79. Basically, odds of 2.22 are very generous indeed.
🇪🇸 LaLiga 🇪🇸
Monday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Espanyol vs Sevilla
Espanyol to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.16
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Monday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Espanyol vs Sevilla
Espanyol to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.16
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
🔥1
Also on Monday evening, there’s an interesting clash in the Spanish top division, where Espanyol and Sevilla go up against each other at RCDE Stadium. Ahead of this game, Espanyol to Score Over 1.5 Goals is a decent bet.
The hosts haven’t been in superb form of late, losing each of their last two games, but their overall form at home hasn’t been bad at all, let’s be honest. In front of a home crowd, Monday’s hosts have won four out of seven, scoring a very decent average of 1.43 goals. Their expected goals average is even better, standing at an admirable 1.87, so clearly, this is a team that can create plenty on home soil.
Away from home, the visitors haven’t exactly been perfect, which further fuels the fire here. Matías Almeyda’s men have conceded an average of 1.50 goals away from home, also surrendering an average of 1.96 expected goals.
Using all key data, I’ve modelled fair odds of 1.94 for this bet, making odds of 2.16 look a little too generous to ignore.
The hosts haven’t been in superb form of late, losing each of their last two games, but their overall form at home hasn’t been bad at all, let’s be honest. In front of a home crowd, Monday’s hosts have won four out of seven, scoring a very decent average of 1.43 goals. Their expected goals average is even better, standing at an admirable 1.87, so clearly, this is a team that can create plenty on home soil.
Away from home, the visitors haven’t exactly been perfect, which further fuels the fire here. Matías Almeyda’s men have conceded an average of 1.50 goals away from home, also surrendering an average of 1.96 expected goals.
Using all key data, I’ve modelled fair odds of 1.94 for this bet, making odds of 2.16 look a little too generous to ignore.
🇪🇺 Champions League 🇪🇺
Tuesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Dortmund vs Villarreal
Nicolas Pepe to Score @ 4.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Tuesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Dortmund vs Villarreal
Nicolas Pepe to Score @ 4.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
👍1
Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game between Dortmund and Villarreal catches my eye, and there’s a particular player bet, favouring a visiting forward, that stands out. That bet is Nicolas Pepe to Score.
This season, in all competitions, Nicolas Pepe has been one of Villarreal’s standout offensive performers. He’s created plenty, while he’s been finding it quite easy to get himself into regular shooting positions, shooting more times than any other Villarreal player.
Sure, Pepe has only scored two in all competitions this season, but he averages an xG of 0.39 per 90 minutes, which shows how threatening he is. In the UCL, he also averages 2.50 shots per 90 minutes.
We know that the hosts aren’t great at guarding against the break, while we know that they give away chances in these sorts of games, so Pepe really should be excited here.
At the end of the day, Pepe has offered a clear threat for Villarreal this season, especially on the break, both domestically and in the Champions League, and I’m not convinced that the goal threat he carries is being accurately reflected enough by the early market. In other words, he could easily be priced shorter. Take odds of 4.50.
This season, in all competitions, Nicolas Pepe has been one of Villarreal’s standout offensive performers. He’s created plenty, while he’s been finding it quite easy to get himself into regular shooting positions, shooting more times than any other Villarreal player.
Sure, Pepe has only scored two in all competitions this season, but he averages an xG of 0.39 per 90 minutes, which shows how threatening he is. In the UCL, he also averages 2.50 shots per 90 minutes.
We know that the hosts aren’t great at guarding against the break, while we know that they give away chances in these sorts of games, so Pepe really should be excited here.
At the end of the day, Pepe has offered a clear threat for Villarreal this season, especially on the break, both domestically and in the Champions League, and I’m not convinced that the goal threat he carries is being accurately reflected enough by the early market. In other words, he could easily be priced shorter. Take odds of 4.50.
🇪🇺 Champions League 🇪🇺
Tuesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Marseille vs Newcastle
Harvey Barnes to Score @ 4.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Tuesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Marseille vs Newcastle
Harvey Barnes to Score @ 4.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
👍1
In other Champions League news, Marseille have quite a challenge on their hands as they welcome Newcastle, a team on fire both as of late and in the UCL, to Stade Vélodrome. I really like the look of a goalscorer bet for the visiting team, with Harvey Barnes arriving here in red hot form.
What a fantastic position Newcastle are in, sitting comfortably in sixth place, though a win here would make the feel even better, adding security to their top-eight ranking.
Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the home side, though they are sitting just outside the top-24 bracket. Being just one point off, they'll feel that a good finish to the league phase will still see them heading into the next stage. Really, the hosts need to go for this, which should see them leaving space for a very strong counter-offensive Newcastle team to exploit. In their recent matches, the Magpies have scored lots on the break, and that is where Barnes is at his best.
The visitors have scored ten goals in four UCL matches, putting away four goals in their only away game so far, plus their 2-1 victory last time out against Man City will surely give them a boost - with Barnes scoring both of their goals.
In fact, all of The Magpies’ three goals in their last two have come from the winger, who has really stepped up in the absence of the injured Anthony Gordon. Whilst Gordon has travelled to France and should be fit to play, it’s still likely that Barnes will start due to his great contributions as of late.
In the Premier League and Champions League, Barnes has created the second highest expected goals value with 3.90, averaging a very promising 0.49 xG per 90 minutes, as well as a superb 0.64 goals per 90. Moreover, it’s reassuring to see the number 11 shooting lots, with Barnes contributing the second highest number of shots, both in all competitions and in the Champions League. Clearly, he isn't lacking confidence.
All in all, the market is not taking all of the above into consideration enough, meaning that early odds of 4.50 aren’t to be missed.
What a fantastic position Newcastle are in, sitting comfortably in sixth place, though a win here would make the feel even better, adding security to their top-eight ranking.
Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the home side, though they are sitting just outside the top-24 bracket. Being just one point off, they'll feel that a good finish to the league phase will still see them heading into the next stage. Really, the hosts need to go for this, which should see them leaving space for a very strong counter-offensive Newcastle team to exploit. In their recent matches, the Magpies have scored lots on the break, and that is where Barnes is at his best.
The visitors have scored ten goals in four UCL matches, putting away four goals in their only away game so far, plus their 2-1 victory last time out against Man City will surely give them a boost - with Barnes scoring both of their goals.
In fact, all of The Magpies’ three goals in their last two have come from the winger, who has really stepped up in the absence of the injured Anthony Gordon. Whilst Gordon has travelled to France and should be fit to play, it’s still likely that Barnes will start due to his great contributions as of late.
In the Premier League and Champions League, Barnes has created the second highest expected goals value with 3.90, averaging a very promising 0.49 xG per 90 minutes, as well as a superb 0.64 goals per 90. Moreover, it’s reassuring to see the number 11 shooting lots, with Barnes contributing the second highest number of shots, both in all competitions and in the Champions League. Clearly, he isn't lacking confidence.
All in all, the market is not taking all of the above into consideration enough, meaning that early odds of 4.50 aren’t to be missed.
❤1
🇪🇺 Champions League 🇪🇺
Wednesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Atletico vs Inter
Clement Lenglet 1+ Card @ 3.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Wednesday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Atletico vs Inter
Clement Lenglet 1+ Card @ 3.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
On Wednesday, the UEFA Champions League game between Atletico and Inter catches the eye, specifically because Atletico defender Clement Lenglet, who struggles to stay out of trouble, looks a decent bet to be carded.
Lenglet is a sturdy defender, there’s no doubt about that, but he’s not incredibly mobile, while he tends to commit too early and get done for pace, which often leads to him making rash, desperate or cynical challenges, which is why he’s no stranger to going in the book.
Inter have some pacey players on the break and that could be a problem for Lenglet, who has already been booked twice in the UCL this season, which is hard to ignore given that he’s only made two UCL appearances.
No player has made more fouls for Atletico than Lenglet this season, with the French defender averaging 2.29 fouls per 90 minutes. In the Champions League, Lenglet is averaging 2.50 fouls per 90 minutes.
Lenglet also ranks as Atletico’s most prolific player in terms of yellow cards in all competitions, picking up five in total. That’s an average of 0.67 cards per 90 minutes. Such numbers tell us that Lenglet is the leading candidate for a card on a tough UCL night like this, more so than odds of 3.50 suggest.
Lenglet is a sturdy defender, there’s no doubt about that, but he’s not incredibly mobile, while he tends to commit too early and get done for pace, which often leads to him making rash, desperate or cynical challenges, which is why he’s no stranger to going in the book.
Inter have some pacey players on the break and that could be a problem for Lenglet, who has already been booked twice in the UCL this season, which is hard to ignore given that he’s only made two UCL appearances.
No player has made more fouls for Atletico than Lenglet this season, with the French defender averaging 2.29 fouls per 90 minutes. In the Champions League, Lenglet is averaging 2.50 fouls per 90 minutes.
Lenglet also ranks as Atletico’s most prolific player in terms of yellow cards in all competitions, picking up five in total. That’s an average of 0.67 cards per 90 minutes. Such numbers tell us that Lenglet is the leading candidate for a card on a tough UCL night like this, more so than odds of 3.50 suggest.
🇧🇷 Serie A 🇧🇷
Thursday 23:30 GMT/00:30 CET/18:30 EST
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.48
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Thursday 23:30 GMT/00:30 CET/18:30 EST
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.48
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
As current 7th place Fluminense and 8th Sao Paulo battle it out in the Brazilian top flight, both continuing to fight for the top ranks coming into the final three games of the season, Over 2.5 Goals is very inflated and worth taking at odds of 2.48.
In games of this type, Sao Paulo have had difficulty in reducing the number of shots provided to their opponents, resulting in a very large expected goals averaging 1.93 per game. Lots of these have been converted into goals, at an average of 2.00 goals per game, which is quite a chunk out of their total 23 goals conceded.
This doesn’t bode too well seeing as the visiting team are also expecting lots of players out this meeting, due to the number of cards and injuries, with some being their regular, key players for their squad, including their goalkeeper and a few defenders.
In addition, Fluminense have shown lots of enthusiasm going forward when hosting the most relevant teams, averaging an expected goals of 1.62 per game and 1.50 goals scored per game. They found the net twice in their most recent home game against Flamengo, who are the team currently in first and are conceding a lot less.
Fluminense have netted in all of their last seven with three scoring more than once - all of which facing teams that give away less on the road than Sao Paulo. On the flip side, in Sao Paulo’s recent away games, all of their last five have recorded either side scoring multiple goals.
Lastly, Fluzão will still have their sights set on a top five finish, being just three points off, so a win here will be very advantageous. And, although it’s a big ask and they’ll need a flawless finish, Sao Paulo could still be in the running for top-seven, as well as having lots of teams competing for the Copa Sudamericana spots, meaning they can’t afford to be too Blasé. All in all, it should be an interesting game, like their four-goal thriller in the reverse fixture in July.
I model goal expectancies of 1.77 and 0.72 for this meeting, converting into fair odds of 2.14 here. The early market is slightly inaccurate when it comes to a more open game on the cards.
In games of this type, Sao Paulo have had difficulty in reducing the number of shots provided to their opponents, resulting in a very large expected goals averaging 1.93 per game. Lots of these have been converted into goals, at an average of 2.00 goals per game, which is quite a chunk out of their total 23 goals conceded.
This doesn’t bode too well seeing as the visiting team are also expecting lots of players out this meeting, due to the number of cards and injuries, with some being their regular, key players for their squad, including their goalkeeper and a few defenders.
In addition, Fluminense have shown lots of enthusiasm going forward when hosting the most relevant teams, averaging an expected goals of 1.62 per game and 1.50 goals scored per game. They found the net twice in their most recent home game against Flamengo, who are the team currently in first and are conceding a lot less.
Fluminense have netted in all of their last seven with three scoring more than once - all of which facing teams that give away less on the road than Sao Paulo. On the flip side, in Sao Paulo’s recent away games, all of their last five have recorded either side scoring multiple goals.
Lastly, Fluzão will still have their sights set on a top five finish, being just three points off, so a win here will be very advantageous. And, although it’s a big ask and they’ll need a flawless finish, Sao Paulo could still be in the running for top-seven, as well as having lots of teams competing for the Copa Sudamericana spots, meaning they can’t afford to be too Blasé. All in all, it should be an interesting game, like their four-goal thriller in the reverse fixture in July.
I model goal expectancies of 1.77 and 0.72 for this meeting, converting into fair odds of 2.14 here. The early market is slightly inaccurate when it comes to a more open game on the cards.
🇮🇹 Serie B 🇮🇹
Friday 19:30 GMT/20:30 CET/14:30 EST
Cesena vs Modena
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38
Cesena to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.05
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Friday 19:30 GMT/20:30 CET/14:30 EST
Cesena vs Modena
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38
Cesena to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.05
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Two teams with the best starts in the Italian Serie B season, Cesena and Modena, come together this Friday evening, so we should be in for an interesting game. Ahead of kickoff, two bets have been identified offering great value for money: Over 2.5 Goals and Cesena to Score Over 1.5 Goals.
Cesena have the opportunity to close the gap between themselves and Modena, being three points off of their opponents, whilst Modena are just three points off of table leaders Monza. So, it’s easy to assume both will not want to lose this game, especially coming here on the back of winless games - two for Modena now.
Solely on home soil, the hosts are in very good scoring form following a modest start to the season, with five goals netted in their last two. Facing a very solid defensive home team last time out, in which they failed to score and had to accept a 1-0 loss, Cesena will appreciate being back on home soil and will look to get back on track.
Modena both scored and conceded two goals in their last game on the road, in fact up against the team sandwiched between themselves and Cesena, Frosinone. So this game is very relevant, especially as Frosinone are creating a very similar number of chances on home soil as Cesena.
When running the data, I model goal expectancies of 1.26 and 1.20, which again shows this is an evenly matched game and both teams should expect some decent chances. This converts into fair odds of 2.20 and 2.76 for the two bets above, so at such big prices the early odds are hard to turn down.
Cesena have the opportunity to close the gap between themselves and Modena, being three points off of their opponents, whilst Modena are just three points off of table leaders Monza. So, it’s easy to assume both will not want to lose this game, especially coming here on the back of winless games - two for Modena now.
Solely on home soil, the hosts are in very good scoring form following a modest start to the season, with five goals netted in their last two. Facing a very solid defensive home team last time out, in which they failed to score and had to accept a 1-0 loss, Cesena will appreciate being back on home soil and will look to get back on track.
Modena both scored and conceded two goals in their last game on the road, in fact up against the team sandwiched between themselves and Cesena, Frosinone. So this game is very relevant, especially as Frosinone are creating a very similar number of chances on home soil as Cesena.
When running the data, I model goal expectancies of 1.26 and 1.20, which again shows this is an evenly matched game and both teams should expect some decent chances. This converts into fair odds of 2.20 and 2.76 for the two bets above, so at such big prices the early odds are hard to turn down.
👍1
🇮🇹 Serie A 🇮🇹
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Parma vs Udinese
Both Teams to Score @ 1.91
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Parma vs Udinese
Both Teams to Score @ 1.91
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
On Saturday afternoon Parma welcomes Udinese to Stadio Ennio Tardini, where Both Teams to Score offers a key slice of value over the market price.
All of Parma’s last five matches now have recorded goals from either end, with Parma even netting against Roma, Bologna and AC Milan - three of the best defensive teams at this point of the season. In contrast, Udinese are at the other end of the spectrum with 20 goals conceded already in 12 games.
What’s more, both sides are giving away numerous goalscoring chances so far in their respective home and away matches: the hosts are averaging an expected goals shipped of 1.42 per game, conceding 1.33 goals per game; the visitors are averaging a very large xGA of 1.78 goals per game, as a result conceding 1.67 goals per game.
Looking specifically at their home and away performances, we can see that both teams are struggling to stay organised at the back, thus lending itself to more chances given away at both ends.
With all essential data taken into account, I model goal expectancies of 1.33 and 1.20 for this meeting, then displaying fair odds of 1.81 for both teams netting here. Therefore there is a clear edge with the early odds of 1.91.
All of Parma’s last five matches now have recorded goals from either end, with Parma even netting against Roma, Bologna and AC Milan - three of the best defensive teams at this point of the season. In contrast, Udinese are at the other end of the spectrum with 20 goals conceded already in 12 games.
What’s more, both sides are giving away numerous goalscoring chances so far in their respective home and away matches: the hosts are averaging an expected goals shipped of 1.42 per game, conceding 1.33 goals per game; the visitors are averaging a very large xGA of 1.78 goals per game, as a result conceding 1.67 goals per game.
Looking specifically at their home and away performances, we can see that both teams are struggling to stay organised at the back, thus lending itself to more chances given away at both ends.
With all essential data taken into account, I model goal expectancies of 1.33 and 1.20 for this meeting, then displaying fair odds of 1.81 for both teams netting here. Therefore there is a clear edge with the early odds of 1.91.
🇮🇹 Serie B 🇮🇹
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Sudtirol vs Avellino
Avellino to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.50
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.18
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Sudtirol vs Avellino
Avellino to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.50
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.18
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
❤2
At the same time, now in the Italian second division, Sudtirol welcomes Avellino all the way up to the north of the country. In the early market, Avellino to Score Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals are two bets that jump out from a value point of view.
In both their total games and solely on the road, Avellino are averaging some of the highest scoring games in the whole division, averaging 3.14 goals per away game (3.15 home and away).
Out of seven away games, the visitors have conceded multiple goals in five and scored multiple in two - both of the games in which they’ve scored multiple goals have been up against the most similar teams, conceding a very similar number of home goals, as Sudtirol.
Sudtirol are one of only two teams to not yet hold onto a home clean sheet, and up to now they have had lots of gaps in their defence, giving away various chances, with an xGA averaging 1.48 per home game.
Biancorossi had a tough game last time out, travelling to a strong Modena side, so were very focused on keeping tight at the back, not allowing their opposition through - which did work for them - and thus didn’t push forward lots.
In contrast, Avellino have not been coping in holding their structure at the back in recent games, conceding three goals in all of their last three and five in their last six. Evidently, Avellino’s games gravitate to the more open style of play.
When running the data, I have goal expectancies of 1.45 and 1.25, which concur with the above. With fair odds of 2.83 and 1.95 for the two bets above, the market isn’t pricing these two bets accurately.
In both their total games and solely on the road, Avellino are averaging some of the highest scoring games in the whole division, averaging 3.14 goals per away game (3.15 home and away).
Out of seven away games, the visitors have conceded multiple goals in five and scored multiple in two - both of the games in which they’ve scored multiple goals have been up against the most similar teams, conceding a very similar number of home goals, as Sudtirol.
Sudtirol are one of only two teams to not yet hold onto a home clean sheet, and up to now they have had lots of gaps in their defence, giving away various chances, with an xGA averaging 1.48 per home game.
Biancorossi had a tough game last time out, travelling to a strong Modena side, so were very focused on keeping tight at the back, not allowing their opposition through - which did work for them - and thus didn’t push forward lots.
In contrast, Avellino have not been coping in holding their structure at the back in recent games, conceding three goals in all of their last three and five in their last six. Evidently, Avellino’s games gravitate to the more open style of play.
When running the data, I have goal expectancies of 1.45 and 1.25, which concur with the above. With fair odds of 2.83 and 1.95 for the two bets above, the market isn’t pricing these two bets accurately.
🇧🇷 Serie A 🇧🇷
Sunday 19:00 GMT/20:00 CET/14:00 EST
Corinthians vs Botafogo
Corinthians to Win @ 2.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Sunday 19:00 GMT/20:00 CET/14:00 EST
Corinthians vs Botafogo
Corinthians to Win @ 2.50
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
❤1
Corinthians and Botafogo meet for their antepenultimate game of the 2025 season this Sunday evening, where, after looking at all of the data, a home Win is very puffed up in the early betting.
Corinthians faced a big defeat last time out, on the road against third place Cruzeiro, but this time round they’ll have the backing of a home crowd in another tough game against Botafogo. Whilst Corinthians can only make the Copa Sudamericana places, as they can no longer reach the top seven, they still haven’t got too much safety in this zone with lots of teams chasing them, so they cannot afford to drop any points from now on.
From a result point of view, Corinthians have a decent record when hosting the most relevant teams, with three wins and one draw out of six, but from a goal creation and scoring point of view, Corinthians are very much the dominant side in games of this type.
On average, they are creating 1.96 expected goals per game whilst only allowing 1.18, resulting in 1.67 goals scored and just 0.83 goals conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in half. This means they are averaging an expected goals difference of 0.78 per relevant game, which is a big disparity.
On the other hand, when travelling to the most similar sides to Corinthians, Botafogo have lost four and drawn one out of seven - being unsuccessful in finding the net in four. In contrast to a much better start to their away campaign, Botafogo have only won one in their last seven away league matches, failing to net in five.
Unlike the hosts, Botafogo can still make the special top five places, so they too will be pushing for a result here. Plus, the visitors are missing two, potentially three, key players in this game which should be taken into consideration.
Using all key data, I make the goal expectancies 1.45 and 1.01 for this game, translating into fair odds of 2.06 for a home win. Therefore, the early odds of 2.50 offer a huge edge over the market.
Corinthians faced a big defeat last time out, on the road against third place Cruzeiro, but this time round they’ll have the backing of a home crowd in another tough game against Botafogo. Whilst Corinthians can only make the Copa Sudamericana places, as they can no longer reach the top seven, they still haven’t got too much safety in this zone with lots of teams chasing them, so they cannot afford to drop any points from now on.
From a result point of view, Corinthians have a decent record when hosting the most relevant teams, with three wins and one draw out of six, but from a goal creation and scoring point of view, Corinthians are very much the dominant side in games of this type.
On average, they are creating 1.96 expected goals per game whilst only allowing 1.18, resulting in 1.67 goals scored and just 0.83 goals conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in half. This means they are averaging an expected goals difference of 0.78 per relevant game, which is a big disparity.
On the other hand, when travelling to the most similar sides to Corinthians, Botafogo have lost four and drawn one out of seven - being unsuccessful in finding the net in four. In contrast to a much better start to their away campaign, Botafogo have only won one in their last seven away league matches, failing to net in five.
Unlike the hosts, Botafogo can still make the special top five places, so they too will be pushing for a result here. Plus, the visitors are missing two, potentially three, key players in this game which should be taken into consideration.
Using all key data, I make the goal expectancies 1.45 and 1.01 for this game, translating into fair odds of 2.06 for a home win. Therefore, the early odds of 2.50 offer a huge edge over the market.
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