More WC Qualifying action takes place this Tuesday evening, and specifically we’re looking into Scotland and Denmark, clashing in the final round and it’s a massive game for both - with only one point between them, the team that wins this will also claim the winner's title for Group C.
Ahead of kickoff, I have my eyes on Denmark to Score Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals, each price being far too inflated as, since they have the safety net of second place, both teams will surely see this as their last chance to go for it to avoid further qualifying rounds.
The Tartan Army were very close to crawling back to a draw last time out in Greece, they really picked up the pace late on - from being 3-0 down to finishing 3-2 - recording a fantastic expected goal value.
This, as well as their multiple goals scored in each of their last four, shows how Scotland have been doing well in terms of creating and scoring regularly. Moreover, they are also spurred on in front of a home crowd, scoring multiple goals in both qualifying clashes so far, though conceding in both too.
Considering they have had the home advantage in their last two, Denmark have failed to hold out their opponents in both, conceding a total of three goals. Plus, quite unsurprisingly, they have scored multiple goals in all of their last four, including both of their away WCQ games so far, totalling a superb nine goals. They’ve been very willing to be attacking, with an expected goals averaging 2.67 per game.
The early market seems to be favouring a low-scorer here, perhaps focusing on their first meeting. But, with all factors and their recent performances, it’s easy to see how this is a fair bit inaccurate, so we can definitely find value with the odds available, as I model fair odds of 1.37 and 1.48.
Ahead of kickoff, I have my eyes on Denmark to Score Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals, each price being far too inflated as, since they have the safety net of second place, both teams will surely see this as their last chance to go for it to avoid further qualifying rounds.
The Tartan Army were very close to crawling back to a draw last time out in Greece, they really picked up the pace late on - from being 3-0 down to finishing 3-2 - recording a fantastic expected goal value.
This, as well as their multiple goals scored in each of their last four, shows how Scotland have been doing well in terms of creating and scoring regularly. Moreover, they are also spurred on in front of a home crowd, scoring multiple goals in both qualifying clashes so far, though conceding in both too.
Considering they have had the home advantage in their last two, Denmark have failed to hold out their opponents in both, conceding a total of three goals. Plus, quite unsurprisingly, they have scored multiple goals in all of their last four, including both of their away WCQ games so far, totalling a superb nine goals. They’ve been very willing to be attacking, with an expected goals averaging 2.67 per game.
The early market seems to be favouring a low-scorer here, perhaps focusing on their first meeting. But, with all factors and their recent performances, it’s easy to see how this is a fair bit inaccurate, so we can definitely find value with the odds available, as I model fair odds of 1.37 and 1.48.
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🇧🇷 Serie A 🇧🇷
Thursday 00:30 GMT/01:30 CET/19:30 EST
Santos vs Mirassol
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Thursday 00:30 GMT/01:30 CET/19:30 EST
Santos vs Mirassol
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
In the early hours of Thursday for those of us in Europe, we return to Brazil as Santos and Mirassol meet once again, both competing at other ends of the table as we head into the final five games. In the early market, I really like the look of Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.84.
The early market is predicting a high-scorer and this would certainly be valid if the fixture was reversed, since both Santos’ away games and Mirassol’s home games consist of a whole lot more goals than the situation at hand.
Around two-thirds of Peixe’s home games consist of two or less goals recorded, and the same can be said for Mirassol’s games on the road. On average, Santos’ home games witness 2.19 goals scored per game, compared to 2.76 away from home.
This correlates when hosting teams of the most relevance, with two out of five both keeping a clean sheet and failing to net. In games of this type, they’re averaging just 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 goals shipped per game. In their eight most recent home games, Santos have only scored more than one goal in one, with three being unsuccessful in netting at all.
Additionally, Mirassol have blocked their opponents out in half of their four games when travelling to relevant sides, averaging 1.00 goal both for and against per game. Out of their last four away games, the visitors have both struggled to score and conceded just one goal in three.
Lastly, being just one point above the dreaded bottom four, the hosts do need to claim points where possible. But, coming into this game, Santos would have played just three days prior, and tiredness and lack of preparation doesn’t bode well when they have already been having difficulty against relevant teams.
Above all, I model fair odds of 1.68 for this bet here, so it’s easy to see how the early odds of 1.84 are far too inflated with all of the information above.
The early market is predicting a high-scorer and this would certainly be valid if the fixture was reversed, since both Santos’ away games and Mirassol’s home games consist of a whole lot more goals than the situation at hand.
Around two-thirds of Peixe’s home games consist of two or less goals recorded, and the same can be said for Mirassol’s games on the road. On average, Santos’ home games witness 2.19 goals scored per game, compared to 2.76 away from home.
This correlates when hosting teams of the most relevance, with two out of five both keeping a clean sheet and failing to net. In games of this type, they’re averaging just 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 goals shipped per game. In their eight most recent home games, Santos have only scored more than one goal in one, with three being unsuccessful in netting at all.
Additionally, Mirassol have blocked their opponents out in half of their four games when travelling to relevant sides, averaging 1.00 goal both for and against per game. Out of their last four away games, the visitors have both struggled to score and conceded just one goal in three.
Lastly, being just one point above the dreaded bottom four, the hosts do need to claim points where possible. But, coming into this game, Santos would have played just three days prior, and tiredness and lack of preparation doesn’t bode well when they have already been having difficulty against relevant teams.
Above all, I model fair odds of 1.68 for this bet here, so it’s easy to see how the early odds of 1.84 are far too inflated with all of the information above.
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🇧🇷 Serie A 🇧🇷
Thursday 22:30 GMT/23:30 CET/17:30 EST
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo to Score Over 1.0 Goal @ 2.58
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Thursday 22:30 GMT/23:30 CET/17:30 EST
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo to Score Over 1.0 Goal @ 2.58
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Staying with the Brazilian top flight for Thursday evening, as Corinthians and Sao Paulo meet in a Sao Paulo Derby, Sao Paulo to Score Over 1.0 Goal is offering a key slice of value over the market.
Sao Paulo have scored multiple goals in three out of their last four games heading into this clash, and in relation to other teams in the league they don’t have too far to travel for this game. The visitors usually enjoy playing against their Sao Paulo counterparts: they have not only scored one but multiple goals in all of their last seven meetings against Corinthians.
Although Corinthians do have a decent defensive record at home they do often get caught out at the back, even up against teams on the lower end of away goals like Sao Paulo. For example, two from both Internacional and Bahia and failing to keep a clean sheet last time out against Ceara.
With five games remaining, Sao Paulo are within touching distance of the top seven and even the top five, which will definitely be in their sights to make it to Copa Libertadores. Likewise, Corinthians definitely won’t want to drop out of their Copa Sudamericana places, sitting just inside with a safety net of two points.
With both having goals in their sights, and with the trend of open meetings between the pair, don’t be surprised to see opportunities for the away side. When running the data, I display fair odds of 2.30 for this bet, so the early odds are worth backing for at least one away goal here.
Sao Paulo have scored multiple goals in three out of their last four games heading into this clash, and in relation to other teams in the league they don’t have too far to travel for this game. The visitors usually enjoy playing against their Sao Paulo counterparts: they have not only scored one but multiple goals in all of their last seven meetings against Corinthians.
Although Corinthians do have a decent defensive record at home they do often get caught out at the back, even up against teams on the lower end of away goals like Sao Paulo. For example, two from both Internacional and Bahia and failing to keep a clean sheet last time out against Ceara.
With five games remaining, Sao Paulo are within touching distance of the top seven and even the top five, which will definitely be in their sights to make it to Copa Libertadores. Likewise, Corinthians definitely won’t want to drop out of their Copa Sudamericana places, sitting just inside with a safety net of two points.
With both having goals in their sights, and with the trend of open meetings between the pair, don’t be surprised to see opportunities for the away side. When running the data, I display fair odds of 2.30 for this bet, so the early odds are worth backing for at least one away goal here.
🇮🇹 Serie B 🇮🇹
Friday 19:30 GMT/20:30 CET/14:30 EST
Catanzaro vs Pescara
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Friday 19:30 GMT/20:30 CET/14:30 EST
Catanzaro vs Pescara
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
We have two games with great value bets this Friday evening, firstly starting in the Italian second division as Catanzaro and Pescara come together, where Over 2.5 Goals is priced in our favour.
The hosts should be preparing for this game in an attacking manner and see this as a perfect opportunity for both goals under their belt and another win, following the first home wins for their 2025/26 season coming in their two most recent matches.
The reason for this is Pescara’s alarming defensive record, as they’ve struggled to settle into the tier higher, allowing far too many goals, especially on the road. In total, they’ve conceded 25 goals in 12 matches, of which 14 have been recorded in just five away games.
Therefore, I Delfini are averaging the highest number of goals per away game currently standing at 3.60. Not a single of their 12 matches this season have concluded with less than two goals, with two-thirds observing three or more, the highest in the whole division.
With all factors taken into account, I have goal expectancies of 1.94 and 0.93 for this meeting. The early market is underestimating the likelihood of goals in this meeting, as I display fair odds of 1.79 for this bet, so we should take advantage of the value.
The hosts should be preparing for this game in an attacking manner and see this as a perfect opportunity for both goals under their belt and another win, following the first home wins for their 2025/26 season coming in their two most recent matches.
The reason for this is Pescara’s alarming defensive record, as they’ve struggled to settle into the tier higher, allowing far too many goals, especially on the road. In total, they’ve conceded 25 goals in 12 matches, of which 14 have been recorded in just five away games.
Therefore, I Delfini are averaging the highest number of goals per away game currently standing at 3.60. Not a single of their 12 matches this season have concluded with less than two goals, with two-thirds observing three or more, the highest in the whole division.
With all factors taken into account, I have goal expectancies of 1.94 and 0.93 for this meeting. The early market is underestimating the likelihood of goals in this meeting, as I display fair odds of 1.79 for this bet, so we should take advantage of the value.
🇪🇸 LaLiga 🇪🇸
Friday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Valencia vs Levante
Levante to Score Over 1.0 Goals @ 1.92
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Friday 20:00 GMT/21:00 CET/15:00 EST
Valencia vs Levante
Levante to Score Over 1.0 Goals @ 1.92
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Shortly following, in the Spanish premier division, rivals Valencia and Levante clash in the Derby del Turia for the first time since the 21/22 season. One bet offering very friendly odds is Levante to Score Over 1.0 Goals, worth backing in the early Lucky Block betting.
From a goalscoring point of view, newly-promoted Levante haven’t had an awful start to the season, even away from home, in spite of the fact that they’re conceding far too many goals.
In fact, on the road, Levante currently stand as the third-highest number of goals scored with ten in seven games. This is pretty unusual given their status, but it seems that although they can’t seem to hold onto results they've shown lots of ability and confidence going forward.
The Bats had a couple of matches with a spotless record, but they haven’t held onto a clean sheet in their last three home games on the bounce, two of these allowing multiple goals, even when facing teams scoring less on the road than Levante.
Both teams haven’t had a league win in many games, both are sitting in a poor position at the bottom of the table, so they’ll be very hungry for a win, and not to mention that both teams would love a result against their enemy in the first league meeting for a few years.
So all things considered we should be in to see plenty of action in this game, especially in terms of chances, so the early odds are far too appealing for this bet, as I model fair odds of 1.77.
From a goalscoring point of view, newly-promoted Levante haven’t had an awful start to the season, even away from home, in spite of the fact that they’re conceding far too many goals.
In fact, on the road, Levante currently stand as the third-highest number of goals scored with ten in seven games. This is pretty unusual given their status, but it seems that although they can’t seem to hold onto results they've shown lots of ability and confidence going forward.
The Bats had a couple of matches with a spotless record, but they haven’t held onto a clean sheet in their last three home games on the bounce, two of these allowing multiple goals, even when facing teams scoring less on the road than Levante.
Both teams haven’t had a league win in many games, both are sitting in a poor position at the bottom of the table, so they’ll be very hungry for a win, and not to mention that both teams would love a result against their enemy in the first league meeting for a few years.
So all things considered we should be in to see plenty of action in this game, especially in terms of chances, so the early odds are far too appealing for this bet, as I model fair odds of 1.77.
🇪🇸 LaLiga 🇪🇸
Saturday 13:00 GMT/14:00 CET/08:00 EST
Alaves vs Celta Vigo
Over 2.0 Goals @ 1.73
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Saturday 13:00 GMT/14:00 CET/08:00 EST
Alaves vs Celta Vigo
Over 2.0 Goals @ 1.73
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
After an international break, Saturday marks the return of a busy day of domestic football, where we start with Alaves and Celta Vigo battling it out at midday. In the early market, Over 2.0 Goals is supplying a massive wedge of value to us to grab.
Following a couple of wins under their belts, both teams lost last time out and will see this as a game to rebound, to not get into more negative results. The hosts have performed much better at home than on the road, with most of their goals originating from home soil, thus I imagine they will appreciate being back at home.
Moreover, Celta Vigo have not held onto a single clean sheet in 12 games this season, the only team to do so in the whole league. However, they also do well in finding the net on the road, with eight goals in five matches; all of their away games have recorded at least two goals scored, averaging 3.00 goals per game.
In terms of goal scoring, Celta Vigo have been on fire in their recent run of games, scoring multiple goals in all of their last six in all competitions. Their games have been demonstrating lots of intensity and have been very open, especially away from home.
Given all necessary data, I model goal expectancies of 1.60 and 1.11, implying a game full of chances. This displays fair odds of 1.44, so the early market is underestimating the likelihood of goals here.
Following a couple of wins under their belts, both teams lost last time out and will see this as a game to rebound, to not get into more negative results. The hosts have performed much better at home than on the road, with most of their goals originating from home soil, thus I imagine they will appreciate being back at home.
Moreover, Celta Vigo have not held onto a single clean sheet in 12 games this season, the only team to do so in the whole league. However, they also do well in finding the net on the road, with eight goals in five matches; all of their away games have recorded at least two goals scored, averaging 3.00 goals per game.
In terms of goal scoring, Celta Vigo have been on fire in their recent run of games, scoring multiple goals in all of their last six in all competitions. Their games have been demonstrating lots of intensity and have been very open, especially away from home.
Given all necessary data, I model goal expectancies of 1.60 and 1.11, implying a game full of chances. This displays fair odds of 1.44, so the early market is underestimating the likelihood of goals here.
🇮🇹 Serie A 🇮🇹
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Cagliari vs Genoa
Genoa to Score 1.0 Goals @ 2.15
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Saturday 14:00 GMT/15:00 CET/09:00 EST
Cagliari vs Genoa
Genoa to Score 1.0 Goals @ 2.15
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Shortly following, Cagliari and Genoa both haven’t had the most enjoyable start to the season as they meet here at Unipol Domus, one excellent value bet which catches the eye is Genoa to Score 1.0 Goals.
On the road, the Genoa boys can score goals, while they’ve certainly improved offensively under their new manager, getting their first win and going two games without a loss, scoring multiple goals in both of those games, which is very positive. This bodes well ahead of a game against a Cagliari team that is weak at the back.
The hosts have conceded two or more goals in each of their last three at home, while they’ve also conceded two or more goals in four of their last five overall.
When I run the key numbers here, I get a goal expectancy of 1.34 for Genoa, which allows me to model fair odds of 1.69 for this. Therefore, odds of 2.15 look too generous to ignore.
On the road, the Genoa boys can score goals, while they’ve certainly improved offensively under their new manager, getting their first win and going two games without a loss, scoring multiple goals in both of those games, which is very positive. This bodes well ahead of a game against a Cagliari team that is weak at the back.
The hosts have conceded two or more goals in each of their last three at home, while they’ve also conceded two or more goals in four of their last five overall.
When I run the key numbers here, I get a goal expectancy of 1.34 for Genoa, which allows me to model fair odds of 1.69 for this. Therefore, odds of 2.15 look too generous to ignore.
🇪🇸 LaLiga 🇪🇸
Saturday 17:30 GMT/18:30 CET/12:30 EST
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad
Osasuna to Score Over 1.0 Goal @ 1.83
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Saturday 17:30 GMT/18:30 CET/12:30 EST
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad
Osasuna to Score Over 1.0 Goal @ 1.83
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Lastly, on Saturday evening, the LaLiga game between Osasuna and Real Sociedad appeals from a betting point of view, with Osasuna to Score Over 1.0 Goal rating as a standout selection at generous-looking odds of 1.83.
In their home games this season, the hosts have performed quite well, winning three out of five, scoring a pleasing average of 1.60 goals. They’ve also created a decent average of 1.36 xG.
The numbers above become even more appealing when put next to Sociedad’s numbers on the road, where things haven’t gone so well for the Basque team. The visitors are yet to win away from home in LaLiga this season, while they’ve conceded an average of 1.50 goals per game, also conceding an average of 1.51 xG.
When I run all of the key numbers, with a goal expectancy of 1.50 for the hosts, I model fair odds of 1.55 for this bet, rendering odds of 1.83 too big to leave alone. Take the value that is on offer.
In their home games this season, the hosts have performed quite well, winning three out of five, scoring a pleasing average of 1.60 goals. They’ve also created a decent average of 1.36 xG.
The numbers above become even more appealing when put next to Sociedad’s numbers on the road, where things haven’t gone so well for the Basque team. The visitors are yet to win away from home in LaLiga this season, while they’ve conceded an average of 1.50 goals per game, also conceding an average of 1.51 xG.
When I run all of the key numbers, with a goal expectancy of 1.50 for the hosts, I model fair odds of 1.55 for this bet, rendering odds of 1.83 too big to leave alone. Take the value that is on offer.
🇪🇸 LaLiga 🇪🇸
Sunday 13:00 GMT/14:00 CET/08:00 EST
Real Oviedo vs Vallecano
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.24
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Sunday 13:00 GMT/14:00 CET/08:00 EST
Real Oviedo vs Vallecano
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.24
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
LaLiga youths and bottom-of-the-league Oviedo have had a chance to recuperate after a much needed international break, and now must aim to turn their season around before it gets even more bleak as they host Rayo Vallecano this Sunday afternoon. One excellent value bet in the early market is Over 2.5 Goals, and it catches the eye for a few reasons:
Oviedo are showing lots of weakness defensively amongst the quality of the big boys, conceding one the highest number of expected goals on home soil already this season, averaging 2.35 per game, resulting in ten goals shipped in six home games. And, whilst they have scored a meagre two home goals, Oviedo are creating more chances and have either been unlucky or crumbled in the final third.
They should have a slightly easier time finding space and getting into good positions here, if only they hold their nerve, as Vallecano are conceding numerous goals on the road, averaging 1.57 per game, and haven’t been flawless in holding their structure at the back, averaging an expected goals of 1.73 given away per game. So, as we can see, far too many.
Looking at all factors, I model goal expectancies of 1.13 and 1.65, implying both sides should have a couple of key chances in this game at least. Therefore, with fair odds of 1.87, the early market is providing a very appetising edge with odds of 2.24.
Oviedo are showing lots of weakness defensively amongst the quality of the big boys, conceding one the highest number of expected goals on home soil already this season, averaging 2.35 per game, resulting in ten goals shipped in six home games. And, whilst they have scored a meagre two home goals, Oviedo are creating more chances and have either been unlucky or crumbled in the final third.
They should have a slightly easier time finding space and getting into good positions here, if only they hold their nerve, as Vallecano are conceding numerous goals on the road, averaging 1.57 per game, and haven’t been flawless in holding their structure at the back, averaging an expected goals of 1.73 given away per game. So, as we can see, far too many.
Looking at all factors, I model goal expectancies of 1.13 and 1.65, implying both sides should have a couple of key chances in this game at least. Therefore, with fair odds of 1.87, the early market is providing a very appetising edge with odds of 2.24.
🇩🇪 Bundesliga 🇩🇪
Sunday 16:30 GMT/17:30 CET/11:30 EST
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30
Over 3.0 Goals @ 3.60
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Sunday 16:30 GMT/17:30 CET/11:30 EST
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30
Over 3.0 Goals @ 3.60
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Sunday’s Bundesliga game between St. Pauli and Union Berlin, which is the second Bundesliga game of the afternoon, rates as a game where goals look generously priced, so much so that two goal-focused bets are worth placing. Here’s why:
For starters, both teams were involved in fairly high-scoring games when last in action, while the goals have typically flowed for the hosts this season, due mainly to a severe lack of defensive solidity. Each of their last six home games in all competitions has produced at least three goals, with three of those six containing four or more goals.
Interestingly, at home, the hosts have scored an average of 1.2 goals, conceding an average of 2.6. They’ve created an average of 1.28 xG, conceding an average of 1.54. On the road, the visitors have scored an average of 1.00 goals, conceding an average of 2.25.
Frankly, both teams look very weak at the back and thus this should be seen as an opportunity by both to score some goals, ultimately promoting an open and attacking game.
Using all key data here, I’ve modelled goal expectancies of 1.66 and 1.53 for this fixture, which then allows me to model fair odds of 1.61 and 1.98 for the two bets above, leaving the available odds looking very generous indeed.
For starters, both teams were involved in fairly high-scoring games when last in action, while the goals have typically flowed for the hosts this season, due mainly to a severe lack of defensive solidity. Each of their last six home games in all competitions has produced at least three goals, with three of those six containing four or more goals.
Interestingly, at home, the hosts have scored an average of 1.2 goals, conceding an average of 2.6. They’ve created an average of 1.28 xG, conceding an average of 1.54. On the road, the visitors have scored an average of 1.00 goals, conceding an average of 2.25.
Frankly, both teams look very weak at the back and thus this should be seen as an opportunity by both to score some goals, ultimately promoting an open and attacking game.
Using all key data here, I’ve modelled goal expectancies of 1.66 and 1.53 for this fixture, which then allows me to model fair odds of 1.61 and 1.98 for the two bets above, leaving the available odds looking very generous indeed.
🇮🇹 Serie A 🇮🇹
Monday 19:45 GMT/20:45 CET/14:45 EST
Sassuolo vs Pisa
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.22
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Monday 19:45 GMT/20:45 CET/14:45 EST
Sassuolo vs Pisa
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.22
Odds from Lucky Block.
Bet Here - https://t.me/luckyblockcasinobot
Monday’s aren’t always the best for soccer bettors, but on this particular Monday evening, there are a few interesting games, the first of which is the one between Sassuolo and Pisa, which takes place at Mapei Stadium. Ahead of this clash, Over 2.5 Goals looks like a good bet.
The goals have been going in quite regularly for the hosts in recent games, and let’s face it, they should approach this game feeling very confident indeed having recently scored three goals against Atalanta. When they last played at home, three goals were scored.
Defensively, the Sassuolo boys aren’t too secure, conceding in each of their last three at home, but they certainly pack a punch offensively, which bodes well for the hosts given that the Pisa boys concede lots of goals on the road. Four of Pisa’s last five on the road have contained three or more goals.
Interestingly, away from home, Monday’s visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals, conceding an average of 2.4. Certainly not low-scoring. They’ve also created an average of 1.33 xG, conceding an average of 1.91.
Ultimately, using all essential data, I have modelled goal expectancies of 1.59 and 1.30 for this game, allowing me to model fair odds of 1.79. Basically, odds of 2.22 are very generous indeed.
The goals have been going in quite regularly for the hosts in recent games, and let’s face it, they should approach this game feeling very confident indeed having recently scored three goals against Atalanta. When they last played at home, three goals were scored.
Defensively, the Sassuolo boys aren’t too secure, conceding in each of their last three at home, but they certainly pack a punch offensively, which bodes well for the hosts given that the Pisa boys concede lots of goals on the road. Four of Pisa’s last five on the road have contained three or more goals.
Interestingly, away from home, Monday’s visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals, conceding an average of 2.4. Certainly not low-scoring. They’ve also created an average of 1.33 xG, conceding an average of 1.91.
Ultimately, using all essential data, I have modelled goal expectancies of 1.59 and 1.30 for this game, allowing me to model fair odds of 1.79. Basically, odds of 2.22 are very generous indeed.