🐃 According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may be approaching the final stage of capitulation

The Realized P/L Ratio has dropped to -0.35 for the first time in 43 months, indicating that realized losses are significantly outweighing realized profits across the Bitcoin supply.

Historically, readings this low have closely aligned with major market bottoms, suggesting that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

While no indicator guarantees a reversal, on-chain data is once again signaling that Bitcoin could be entering a zone where long-term investors start paying close attention. 🧐

🇺🇸 The U.S. celebrated its 250th Independence Day on July 4, and even Iran avoided spoiling the occasion

🇮🇷 Instead, it held a high-profile funeral for its former Supreme Leader on the same day. Markets welcomed the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, though the calm may be short-lived as traders shift back into headline and insider-driven mode.

📈 Bitcoin is now testing resistance around $63K. A move toward $67K remains possible, but the setup still resembles a classic bull trap, so caution is warranted.

🦄 Ethereum surprised traders overnight by briefly reclaiming $1,800 before pulling back to around $1,760, continuing to show relative strength versus Bitcoin.

🤔 Vitalik Buterin has unveiled Lean Ethereum—a new 3–4 year roadmap that marks Ethereum's third major evolution after The Merge

The plan includes:

▪️ Native recursive STARK proofs for faster and more efficient block verification.
▪️ Quantum-resistant cryptography across the protocol.
▪️10x+ lower fees for ERC-20 tokens, NFTs, and many DeFi applications through new state models.
▪️A gradual transition from the EVM to RISC-V/leanISA.
▪️Privacy becoming a core protocol feature.
▪️Simpler consensus with faster finality.
▪️Multiple scalability upgrades, starting with Glamsterdam in late 2026, which aims to raise the gas limit from ~60M to 200M.

Notably, Ethereum is adopting the proven recursive STARK technology pioneered by StarkWare, bringing it directly into the protocol rather than relying on external solutions.

📉 Crypto market liquidity continues to shrink as the combined market cap of the two largest stablecoins keeps declining

Over the past 30 days, USDC has fallen 3.6%, while USDT is down 2% in market capitalization. 🤔

This isn't a new trend—it has been in place since November 2025. A shrinking stablecoin supply generally means less fresh capital is available to flow into crypto markets, making sustained rallies more difficult.

For now, liquidity remains one of the biggest headwinds for the market.

🤖 The AI investment narrative keeps getting stronger

According to Nomura, global capital expenditures on memory for AI data centers could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030. 🧐

That's one reason why speculative capital has been flowing into AI instead of crypto. The sector isn't just fueled by hype—it also has enormous infrastructure spending backing its long-term growth story.

It's getting harder and harder not to be bullish on AI... even if you're a crypto investor. 🤷

😰 Strategy has sold Bitcoin again

The company announced it sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216M to fund dividend payments and strengthen its cash reserves.

Bitcoin briefly dropped to $61.2K on the news but quickly recovered, climbing back to around $63.5K. The market absorbed the selling pressure far better than many expected.

Ironically, previous reports of Strategy selling just a few dozen BTC caused more panic than an actual 3,588 BTC sale. This time, the market barely flinched 🤔

😂 The CEO of CryptoQuant couldn't resist trolling Michael Saylor after Strategy's recent Bitcoin sale

He posted:

"Now sell the Bitcoin and buy your kidney back."

The joke references Saylor's famous advice that investors should "sell a kidney if you have to, but keep holding Bitcoin."

After Strategy sold part of its BTC treasury, crypto Twitter was quick to remind Saylor that the internet never forgets. 🕵️‍♂️

Michael Saylor says Strategy's recent Bitcoin sale was a strategic tax decision, not a sign of financial stress 👀

According to Saylor, realizing a loss allows the company to benefit from tax advantages while continuing to support its STRC program.

He added that Strategy may sell up to 0.2% of its Bitcoin holdings in a month—but expects to buy back up to five times more BTC over the same period. 🤔

In short, the company says the sale is part of capital management, not a change in its long-term Bitcoin strategy.

🤖🚀 xAI is officially becoming SpaceXAI

The rebrand marks the next step in integrating Elon Musk's AI company into SpaceX, combining AI development with the company's space ambitions. The new brand has already been unveiled with updated branding on X.

The long-term vision is to merge AI, space infrastructure, and future computing into a single ecosystem—making AI a core part of SpaceX rather than a standalone company.🌌

📈 The forward PEG ratio for U.S. stocks has fallen to 0.80, a level that typically suggests the market may be undervalued relative to expected earnings growth

There are two possible scenarios:

🟩 Bull case: AI-driven earnings forecasts prove accurate, making today's valuations an attractive entry point before another leg higher in the S&P 500.
🟥 Bear case: Expectations are too optimistic, similar to the dot-com era, and weaker growth forces earnings estimates lower.

For now, corporate revenues continue to grow, and the U.S. economy has yet to show signs of a major slowdown. If equities continue higher, it could also become a positive catalyst for crypto.

Crypto doesn't always need stocks to fall—but historically, it has had a much easier time rallying when the stock market is strong. Until then, patience remains key. 🧐

📉 U.S. investors continue to sell Bitcoin

The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for 50 consecutive days—the longest streak on record. 😳

🔎 This indicator measures the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges. When it turns negative, Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase, suggesting stronger selling pressure and weaker demand from U.S. investors.

Despite signs of whale accumulation elsewhere, American market participants remain cautious, making the lack of U.S. buying one of the key headwinds for Bitcoin's recovery.

🧮 Strategy believes its Bitcoin acquisition model could become self-sustaining

According to the company's estimates, if BTC appreciates by more than 3.3% annually over the long term, the gains from its Bitcoin holdings could theoretically generate enough value to pay dividends on STRC preferred shares indefinitely—the same shares used to finance additional BTC purchases.

In other words, as long as Bitcoin keeps outperforming that threshold, the strategy begins to resemble a self-reinforcing flywheel.

Sounds a bit like a perpetual motion machine... but powered by Bitcoin instead of physics. 🤔

⬇️ Altcoin dominance (the combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 relative to the top 10) has fallen to 8%

Interestingly, that's the same level seen at the market bottom before the previous major bull run.

History doesn't guarantee a repeat, but such depressed readings have historically appeared when sentiment toward smaller-cap crypto assets was near its weakest.

If the pattern holds, today's pessimism could eventually become the foundation for the next altcoin cycle ... or not 👀

🧸 CryptoQuant has identified a warning signal that has historically appeared before major Bitcoin capitulation events

🔎 The DIPI indicator tracks stress-driven BTC inflows to exchanges, including older coins moving, long-term holders sending BTC to exchanges, and coins deposited at a loss.

Large spikes in DIPI previously coincided with periods of extreme market pressure, including 2018, 2022, and now 2026. 🧐

While no indicator is perfect, the return of this signal suggests the market could face another wave of volatility or a deeper correction before a sustainable recovery begins.

⚠️ President Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over!

😳 The announcement follows the U.S. Treasury's decision to revoke a license allowing transactions involving Iranian oil and overnight U.S. strikes on more than 80 targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial shipping.

U.S. Central Command says its forces remain on high alert and are prepared to respond to any further escalation. ⚔️

Markets reacted immediately to the news, with Bitcoin coming under pressure and moving back toward the $62K level as investors reduced risk exposure. 📉

One of the simplest ways to judge whether Bitcoin's long-term uptrend is still intact is by looking at the cycle lows ⬇️

As long as each major market bottom is higher than the previous one, the macro bullish trend remains intact—even if short-term price action looks painful.

Despite the current volatility, Bitcoin continues to print higher lows across market cycles, suggesting the long-term structure has yet to be broken. 🧐

A Gate user claims $1.7M was stolen from their exchange account! 🙀

👀 According to the user, the account was protected with 2FA (phone + Google Authenticator + email), yet they later discovered password and security settings had been reset, the account email changed, and all funds withdrawn.

📩 Gate says its preliminary investigation found no platform vulnerability and believes this was an isolated case, likely caused by the user's own data being compromised. The exchange says the investigation is ongoing.

Meanwhile, crypto X is debating what actually happened—from a hacked email account to the possible use of AI deepfakes during identity verification. 🤖

For now, it's one person's account versus the exchange's explanation, so it's worth waiting for the full investigation before drawing conclusions. ⌛️

🐃 CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin could have more upside in the short term

Historically, July has been one of Bitcoin's stronger months, even during bear markets. In 2018, BTC gained 20% in July, while in 2022 it rallied 17%, despite the broader downtrend. 📈

Seasonality alone doesn't guarantee another rally, but historical data suggests July has often provided relief after periods of heavy selling.

Will history repeat itself once again? 👀