📊 Bitcoin: halfway to the next halving
Today we’ve reached the 50% point of the cycle between the last and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. ✂️
Bitcoin is entering the mid-stage of its 4-year issuance cycle. The next halving is expected in ~2 years, when mining rewards will be cut in half again.
At the moment, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the next halving, this subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC, further reducing new supply issuance. 🧐
Historically, halving cycles have been a key structural driver of Bitcoin’s long-term supply tightening and market cycles.
Today we’ve reached the 50% point of the cycle between the last and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. ✂️
Bitcoin is entering the mid-stage of its 4-year issuance cycle. The next halving is expected in ~2 years, when mining rewards will be cut in half again.
At the moment, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the next halving, this subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC, further reducing new supply issuance. 🧐
Historically, halving cycles have been a key structural driver of Bitcoin’s long-term supply tightening and market cycles.
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🇺🇸📈 US inflation jumped to 3.8% — the highest level since September 2023
April CPI rose 0.5%, coming in above expectations (3.7%). Markets are reacting relatively calmly for now:
• S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• BTC had already corrected below $81k ahead of the report
Two potential red flags for markets:
🔴 inflation accelerating above 4% in May
🔴 the Fed shifting back toward rate hikes if price growth continues
A lot may depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens in May, since energy prices remain one of the biggest inflation drivers globally. 🌐
April CPI rose 0.5%, coming in above expectations (3.7%). Markets are reacting relatively calmly for now:
• S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• BTC had already corrected below $81k ahead of the report
Two potential red flags for markets:
🔴 inflation accelerating above 4% in May
🔴 the Fed shifting back toward rate hikes if price growth continues
A lot may depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens in May, since energy prices remain one of the biggest inflation drivers globally. 🌐
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😮 According to Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders have experienced only a fraction of the stress seen during previous cycle bottoms
Their relative unrealized losses peaked at around 15% in early April. For comparison, during past deep bear markets this metric climbed above 75%. 🧐
Despite the recent correction, conviction among long-term BTC holders remains unusually strong. Historically, true capitulation phases came with far deeper pain and panic than what the market has seen so far this cycle. 📊
Their relative unrealized losses peaked at around 15% in early April. For comparison, during past deep bear markets this metric climbed above 75%. 🧐
Despite the recent correction, conviction among long-term BTC holders remains unusually strong. Historically, true capitulation phases came with far deeper pain and panic than what the market has seen so far this cycle. 📊
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📈 Bitcoin may be flashing its first early bull market signal
🔎 Historically, transitions into the “early bull” zone often marked the end of the worst market phase and the beginning of trend recovery. Similar signals appeared in 2019 and early 2023 — both before major BTC rallies.
But there’s an important catch 👇
In March 2022, the same indicator also flipped bullish, only for the market to form a local top and continue falling afterward.
This time, the signal coincides with progress on the Clarity Act in the US — a bill that could bring clearer crypto regulations and strengthen institutional interest in the sector. 📝
The 30DMA shows improving momentum, although some on-chain metrics still point to overheated conditions.
For now, this looks more like a potential market regime shift than confirmation of a full bull run. May could become the key month for direction. 🤔
🔎 Historically, transitions into the “early bull” zone often marked the end of the worst market phase and the beginning of trend recovery. Similar signals appeared in 2019 and early 2023 — both before major BTC rallies.
But there’s an important catch 👇
In March 2022, the same indicator also flipped bullish, only for the market to form a local top and continue falling afterward.
This time, the signal coincides with progress on the Clarity Act in the US — a bill that could bring clearer crypto regulations and strengthen institutional interest in the sector. 📝
The 30DMA shows improving momentum, although some on-chain metrics still point to overheated conditions.
For now, this looks more like a potential market regime shift than confirmation of a full bull run. May could become the key month for direction. 🤔
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🔥 Ethereum introduced Clear Signing — an open standard designed to replace “blind signing” with human-readable transaction approvals
Instead of showing users a confusing string of symbols, wallets will now be able to clearly display:
• which asset is being sent
• who receives it
• the amount
• transaction conditions
This is a major step forward for crypto security after years of phishing attacks and wallet drains caused by users signing transactions without understanding what they were actually approving. 💪
If widely adopted, Clear Signing could significantly reduce one of the biggest UX and security problems in Web3.
Instead of showing users a confusing string of symbols, wallets will now be able to clearly display:
• which asset is being sent
• who receives it
• the amount
• transaction conditions
This is a major step forward for crypto security after years of phishing attacks and wallet drains caused by users signing transactions without understanding what they were actually approving. 💪
If widely adopted, Clear Signing could significantly reduce one of the biggest UX and security problems in Web3.
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📊 According to BitGo, investors with high conviction now control nearly 4 million BTC — roughly a 300% increase compared to the end of 2025.
This two-quarter jump marks the largest accumulation surge since the COVID crash period.
At the same time, Bitfinex notes that an increasing share of Bitcoin’s realized value is moving into the hands of large, low-activity holders. 👀
In simple terms: more BTC is being locked away by entities that historically tend to hold rather than trade.
That usually points to stronger long-term conviction — and lower liquid supply available on the market.
This two-quarter jump marks the largest accumulation surge since the COVID crash period.
At the same time, Bitfinex notes that an increasing share of Bitcoin’s realized value is moving into the hands of large, low-activity holders. 👀
In simple terms: more BTC is being locked away by entities that historically tend to hold rather than trade.
That usually points to stronger long-term conviction — and lower liquid supply available on the market.
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💰 The total amount of staked Ethereum has surpassed 85 million ETH
Since Ethereum transitioned to Proof-of-Stake, the staking trend has remained consistently upward — even throughout the bear market. 📈
What’s notable is that staking deposits kept growing despite heavy volatility and prolonged price declines, showing that a large share of holders preferred long-term yield and network participation over selling.
The continued rise in staked ETH also reduces liquid circulating supply, strengthening Ethereum’s long-term supply lock dynamics.
Since Ethereum transitioned to Proof-of-Stake, the staking trend has remained consistently upward — even throughout the bear market. 📈
What’s notable is that staking deposits kept growing despite heavy volatility and prolonged price declines, showing that a large share of holders preferred long-term yield and network participation over selling.
The continued rise in staked ETH also reduces liquid circulating supply, strengthening Ethereum’s long-term supply lock dynamics.
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🇺🇸 Kevin Warsh has officially been confirmed as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve for the next 4 years
Warsh is often viewed as relatively pro-crypto due to his more open stance toward Bitcoin and digital assets compared to traditional Fed figures.
But the market reaction was… underwhelming. 🤷
Instead of celebrating, BTC dropped below $80k shortly after the announcement.
Turns out even a “pro-Bitcoin” Fed chair can’t instantly save the charts when macro pressure is still in control 📉
Warsh is often viewed as relatively pro-crypto due to his more open stance toward Bitcoin and digital assets compared to traditional Fed figures.
But the market reaction was… underwhelming. 🤷
Instead of celebrating, BTC dropped below $80k shortly after the announcement.
Turns out even a “pro-Bitcoin” Fed chair can’t instantly save the charts when macro pressure is still in control 📉
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👁 While Jensen Huang is visiting China alongside Donald Trump and executives from major US companies, Nvidia keeps printing new all-time highs
Nvidia’s market cap has now reached $5.45T — roughly double the entire crypto market, currently sitting near $2.7T.
One Nvidia alone is now worth more than:
• Bitcoin
• Ethereum
• Tether
• and basically the rest of crypto combined.
AI chips became bigger than the entire “future of finance” narrative 🤯
Nvidia’s market cap has now reached $5.45T — roughly double the entire crypto market, currently sitting near $2.7T.
One Nvidia alone is now worth more than:
• Bitcoin
• Ethereum
• Tether
• and basically the rest of crypto combined.
AI chips became bigger than the entire “future of finance” narrative 🤯
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🤔 Glassnode analysts are warning about a possible short-term correction for Bitcoin
One of the main concerns is the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields toward ~4.4%. 💰
Historically, higher bond yields have often coincided with pressure on BTC and other risk assets, as investors rotate into safer instruments like US bonds and the dollar becomes more attractive. 👀
In simple terms: higher yields = tighter liquidity + less appetite for speculative assets.
For now, macro conditions may matter more for Bitcoin than crypto-specific news.
One of the main concerns is the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields toward ~4.4%. 💰
Historically, higher bond yields have often coincided with pressure on BTC and other risk assets, as investors rotate into safer instruments like US bonds and the dollar becomes more attractive. 👀
In simple terms: higher yields = tighter liquidity + less appetite for speculative assets.
For now, macro conditions may matter more for Bitcoin than crypto-specific news.
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💵 Global money supply has reached a new all-time high: $121.9 trillion
Over the past two years, the world added another $17.1T in liquidity, and the money printer appears to be accelerating again with annual growth running around 7–8%. 📈
Historically, excess liquidity eventually finds its way into risk assets:
• stocks
• real estate
• commodities
• and sometimes crypto
The big crypto question now:
when does at least part of this newly printed money rotate into Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market? 👀
Over the past two years, the world added another $17.1T in liquidity, and the money printer appears to be accelerating again with annual growth running around 7–8%. 📈
Historically, excess liquidity eventually finds its way into risk assets:
• stocks
• real estate
• commodities
• and sometimes crypto
The big crypto question now:
when does at least part of this newly printed money rotate into Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market? 👀
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📝 The CLARITY Act could become the biggest regulatory shift for crypto in the US in nearly 8 years
A major reason: stablecoins are quietly turning crypto exchanges into digital savings accounts. According to reports, every third Binance user now keeps at least half of their portfolio in stablecoins, versus just 4% in 2020.
That’s exactly what worries the traditional banking lobby:
people choosing USD Coin over bank deposits.
Key Senate hearings on the CLARITY Act begin today at 14:30 UTC.
The bill aims to:
• define whether the SEC or CFTC regulates crypto
• establish rules for stablecoins and exchanges
• legalize digital asset markets more clearly
• create a legal framework for tokenization and ETFs
Many in the industry see this as the first real attempt to build a full legal foundation for crypto in the US.
The important nuance: regulation may arrive faster than capital inflows 😉
A major reason: stablecoins are quietly turning crypto exchanges into digital savings accounts. According to reports, every third Binance user now keeps at least half of their portfolio in stablecoins, versus just 4% in 2020.
That’s exactly what worries the traditional banking lobby:
people choosing USD Coin over bank deposits.
Key Senate hearings on the CLARITY Act begin today at 14:30 UTC.
The bill aims to:
• define whether the SEC or CFTC regulates crypto
• establish rules for stablecoins and exchanges
• legalize digital asset markets more clearly
• create a legal framework for tokenization and ETFs
Many in the industry see this as the first real attempt to build a full legal foundation for crypto in the US.
The important nuance: regulation may arrive faster than capital inflows 😉
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Bank of America reminds investors that nearly every major IPO struggles shortly after launch 🚀
That warning may become especially relevant if rumored 2026 IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic actually happen. 🤔
The market narrative right now looks simple:
keep stocks elevated, maintain AI hype, and push liquidity until the biggest listings hit the public market.
But the key question for 2026 remains unresolved 👇
Will sky-high private valuations turn into fuel for a broader stock market correction once these companies finally begin public trading? 😳
That warning may become especially relevant if rumored 2026 IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic actually happen. 🤔
The market narrative right now looks simple:
keep stocks elevated, maintain AI hype, and push liquidity until the biggest listings hit the public market.
But the key question for 2026 remains unresolved 👇
Will sky-high private valuations turn into fuel for a broader stock market correction once these companies finally begin public trading? 😳
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Crypto soothsayer
📝 The CLARITY Act could become the biggest regulatory shift for crypto in the US in nearly 8 years A major reason: stablecoins are quietly turning crypto exchanges into digital savings accounts. According to reports, every third Binance user now keeps at…
🚀 Bitcoin briefly pumped to $82k overnight after the US Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act
The bill passed committee voting 15–9, with support from all Republican members and two Democrats. But BTC later slipped back below $81k because the legislation still lacks the 60 Senate votes needed to fully advance — meaning final approval could be delayed until August.
Key points from the approved version:
• clearer crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC
• simplified rules for firms holding multiple asset types
• an AI regulatory sandbox for financial products
• a compromise on stablecoins: passive yield for US users may be banned, while activity-based rewards could remain
Meanwhile, stricter proposals targeting DeFi, crypto mixers, retirement-account crypto exposure, and politician-linked crypto projects were rejected. 🤷
For now, the market sees this as a major win for the US crypto industry — just not a finished deal yet 👏
The bill passed committee voting 15–9, with support from all Republican members and two Democrats. But BTC later slipped back below $81k because the legislation still lacks the 60 Senate votes needed to fully advance — meaning final approval could be delayed until August.
Key points from the approved version:
• clearer crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC
• simplified rules for firms holding multiple asset types
• an AI regulatory sandbox for financial products
• a compromise on stablecoins: passive yield for US users may be banned, while activity-based rewards could remain
Meanwhile, stricter proposals targeting DeFi, crypto mixers, retirement-account crypto exposure, and politician-linked crypto projects were rejected. 🤷
For now, the market sees this as a major win for the US crypto industry — just not a finished deal yet 👏
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🤧 Donald Trump announced a “fantastic” trade agreement with China that insiders reportedly value near $1T.
More importantly for markets, Beijing also signaled support for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and preventing nuclear escalation in Iran — two major factors for global oil prices and inflation expectations.
Trump, in his usual maximalist style, also declared:
• the US economy stronger than ever
• stock markets at record highs
• $18T of investment flowing into America
• and “military victory” over Iran, with “more to come”
The market takeaway is simpler than the speech itself 👇
If US-China tensions cool down and Hormuz shipping remains stable, that could ease pressure on energy markets, inflation, and global risk assets — including crypto.
Now traders just need reality to catch up with the headlines 🤷♂️
More importantly for markets, Beijing also signaled support for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and preventing nuclear escalation in Iran — two major factors for global oil prices and inflation expectations.
Trump, in his usual maximalist style, also declared:
• the US economy stronger than ever
• stock markets at record highs
• $18T of investment flowing into America
• and “military victory” over Iran, with “more to come”
The market takeaway is simpler than the speech itself 👇
If US-China tensions cool down and Hormuz shipping remains stable, that could ease pressure on energy markets, inflation, and global risk assets — including crypto.
Now traders just need reality to catch up with the headlines 🤷♂️
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📉 Bitcoin hash rate has been declining since October 2025
According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this is now the 4th longest miner capitulation period in Bitcoin’s history.🧐
Miner capitulation usually happens when weaker mining operations struggle with:
• lower profitability
• rising costs
• or tighter market conditions
Historically, extended miner stress has often appeared near important market turning points, as inefficient miners exit the network and selling pressure eventually decreases.
Despite the slowdown, Bitcoin’s network remains historically strong — but the mining sector is clearly going through a painful reset 💸
According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this is now the 4th longest miner capitulation period in Bitcoin’s history.🧐
Miner capitulation usually happens when weaker mining operations struggle with:
• lower profitability
• rising costs
• or tighter market conditions
Historically, extended miner stress has often appeared near important market turning points, as inefficient miners exit the network and selling pressure eventually decreases.
Despite the slowdown, Bitcoin’s network remains historically strong — but the mining sector is clearly going through a painful reset 💸
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🇺🇸 New US ethics filings show that Donald Trump and his family were buying crypto-related stocks during Q1 2026 👀
The disclosed purchases include:
• Coinbase (COIN)
• Strategy (MSTR)
• MARA Holdings (MARA)
The biggest Coinbase purchase — estimated between $100k and $250k — happened almost exactly at COIN’s yearly bottom, when the stock was down ~70% from its 2025 highs. 👏
The filings also reveal positions in Block, Robinhood, plus large buys in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and Boeing.
The disclosed purchases include:
• Coinbase (COIN)
• Strategy (MSTR)
• MARA Holdings (MARA)
The biggest Coinbase purchase — estimated between $100k and $250k — happened almost exactly at COIN’s yearly bottom, when the stock was down ~70% from its 2025 highs. 👏
The filings also reveal positions in Block, Robinhood, plus large buys in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and Boeing.
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💵 Yesterday people thought Tether had broken after hundreds of previously frozen wallets suddenly started unlocking on-chain
Turns out it wasn’t a bug.
🔥❄️Tether intentionally unfroze 497 USDT addresses holding around $79.2M — the largest unfreeze wave of 2026 so far.
At first, panic spread across crypto Twitter, with users warning others to urgently withdraw “locked” funds. But analysts now believe this was simply part of compliance procedures:
old investigations were closed and some assets were returned to their owners.
The uncomfortable takeaway 👇
With Tether, you can wake up with:
• a frozen balance
• or an unexpectedly unfrozen one
…without any notification — just a blockchain update.
Turns out it wasn’t a bug.
🔥❄️Tether intentionally unfroze 497 USDT addresses holding around $79.2M — the largest unfreeze wave of 2026 so far.
At first, panic spread across crypto Twitter, with users warning others to urgently withdraw “locked” funds. But analysts now believe this was simply part of compliance procedures:
old investigations were closed and some assets were returned to their owners.
The uncomfortable takeaway 👇
With Tether, you can wake up with:
• a frozen balance
• or an unexpectedly unfrozen one
…without any notification — just a blockchain update.
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📉 Markets turned red after the underwhelming US-China talks
Nvidia led the sell-off after Donald Trump approved H200 chip sales to China — but reports suggest Beijing showed little interest in buying them. 🤷
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped toward $78k, raising fears of a deeper correction.
For many traders, the key zone now sits around $75k:
if BTC loses that level, momentum could accelerate quickly. Some analysts even argue that this time a fall toward $60k might not provide strong support either.
Bitcoin has followed surprisingly similar cycles for years.
If history repeats again, the market may first wipe out overleveraged traders before offering the next real accumulation zone 😳
Nvidia led the sell-off after Donald Trump approved H200 chip sales to China — but reports suggest Beijing showed little interest in buying them. 🤷
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped toward $78k, raising fears of a deeper correction.
For many traders, the key zone now sits around $75k:
if BTC loses that level, momentum could accelerate quickly. Some analysts even argue that this time a fall toward $60k might not provide strong support either.
Bitcoin has followed surprisingly similar cycles for years.
If history repeats again, the market may first wipe out overleveraged traders before offering the next real accumulation zone 😳
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Red Monday is here 🌡
BTC dropped below $77K as over $600M in longs got wiped in the last 24 hours — with ETH alone accounting for $256M in liquidations. 🔪
Markets turned risk-off after renewed tensions around Iran. Donald Trump once again raised pressure on Tehran, and traders are now pricing in the possibility of fresh US strikes later this week. 🛬
Interestingly, rising Treasury yields suggest some investors still believe Trump could be bluffing — but the uncertainty is enough to send crypto and equities lower for now.
Volatility is back on the menu. 🎢
BTC dropped below $77K as over $600M in longs got wiped in the last 24 hours — with ETH alone accounting for $256M in liquidations. 🔪
Markets turned risk-off after renewed tensions around Iran. Donald Trump once again raised pressure on Tehran, and traders are now pricing in the possibility of fresh US strikes later this week. 🛬
Interestingly, rising Treasury yields suggest some investors still believe Trump could be bluffing — but the uncertainty is enough to send crypto and equities lower for now.
Volatility is back on the menu. 🎢
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