😏 Bitcoin is becoming more attractive than gold?
🔎 Analysts at JPMorgan say that since the start of the Iran conflict, investors have been buying BTC more aggressively than gold.
Since the conflict began:
📈 BTC is up ~26%
📉 Gold initially dropped and still hasn’t fully recovered
📊 The narrative is shifting: instead of treating Bitcoin as a “risk asset,” more investors are starting to view it as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical instability.
Gold had its massive rally last year.
Now the market is wondering whether 2026 could become Bitcoin’s turn. 👀
🔎 Analysts at JPMorgan say that since the start of the Iran conflict, investors have been buying BTC more aggressively than gold.
Since the conflict began:
📈 BTC is up ~26%
📉 Gold initially dropped and still hasn’t fully recovered
📊 The narrative is shifting: instead of treating Bitcoin as a “risk asset,” more investors are starting to view it as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical instability.
Gold had its massive rally last year.
Now the market is wondering whether 2026 could become Bitcoin’s turn. 👀
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🚀 Zcash is pushing hard into the privacy narrative again — and the market is paying attention
👩💻The project plans to roll out quantum-resistant wallets within a month and fully transition to post-quantum cryptography in the next 12–18 months. At the same time, the team says it’s working on scaling the network to Visa/Mastercard-level throughput.
Zcash developers also took shots at Bitcoin, calling it “fundamentally broken” for private payments due to blockchain transparency and growing surveillance risks.
📊 Key points:
▪️ ~30% of all ZEC is now in shielded private pools — an all-time high
▪️ ZEC is up over 110% in a month and ~300% since March
▪️ Privacy coin narrative is back as users rethink on-chain transparency
▪️ Market expects major upside if quantum-security upgrades ship on time
⚠️ But momentum is overheated. If BTC weakens or the quantum roadmap slips, sharp corrections are possible.
👩💻The project plans to roll out quantum-resistant wallets within a month and fully transition to post-quantum cryptography in the next 12–18 months. At the same time, the team says it’s working on scaling the network to Visa/Mastercard-level throughput.
Zcash developers also took shots at Bitcoin, calling it “fundamentally broken” for private payments due to blockchain transparency and growing surveillance risks.
📊 Key points:
▪️ ~30% of all ZEC is now in shielded private pools — an all-time high
▪️ ZEC is up over 110% in a month and ~300% since March
▪️ Privacy coin narrative is back as users rethink on-chain transparency
▪️ Market expects major upside if quantum-security upgrades ship on time
⚠️ But momentum is overheated. If BTC weakens or the quantum roadmap slips, sharp corrections are possible.
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📉 Tom Lee says Bitmine Immersion Technologies will likely slow down its aggressive Ethereum accumulation once it reaches its target of owning 5% of the total ETH supply
The crazy part? The company originally expected this to take 5 years — but less than a year later, it already controls ~4.3% of all ETH in existence.
📝 Current stats:
▪️ 5.1M+ ETH worth ~$11.9B
▪️ Buying ~100K ETH per week
▪️ ~85% of holdings are staked
▪️ Staking reportedly generates $300M+ annually
At current pace, Bitmine could hit the 5% milestone within six weeks. After that, the focus shifts to ETH staking and BMNR stock buybacks.
🖕Despite the massive position, Bitmine is still sitting on a paper loss of over $6B due to an average entry above $3,500 per ETH.
The crazy part? The company originally expected this to take 5 years — but less than a year later, it already controls ~4.3% of all ETH in existence.
📝 Current stats:
▪️ 5.1M+ ETH worth ~$11.9B
▪️ Buying ~100K ETH per week
▪️ ~85% of holdings are staked
▪️ Staking reportedly generates $300M+ annually
At current pace, Bitmine could hit the 5% milestone within six weeks. After that, the focus shifts to ETH staking and BMNR stock buybacks.
🖕Despite the massive position, Bitmine is still sitting on a paper loss of over $6B due to an average entry above $3,500 per ETH.
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🤖 Crypto analyst Willy Woo asked AI models Grok and Gemini to evaluate the risk/reward profile of STRC — the high-yield product launched by Strategy.
The result? Both AIs agreed that the current ~11.5% yield is too low for the level of risk investors are taking.
🧑💻 Estimated “fair” yields according to the models:
▪️ Grok: 17–22% annually
▪️ Gemini: ~16% annually
The result? Both AIs agreed that the current ~11.5% yield is too low for the level of risk investors are taking.
🧑💻 Estimated “fair” yields according to the models:
▪️ Grok: 17–22% annually
▪️ Gemini: ~16% annually
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🌐 Geopolitical tension is back on the market radar
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to the US peace proposal, calling it “absolutely unacceptable.” After the statement, Brent crude jumped more than 5% and moved above $100 per barrel as markets priced in renewed escalation risk.
Iran reportedly demanded:
▪️ End of sanctions and naval blockade
▪️ No further strikes
▪️ Compensation for damages
▪️ Recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz
▪️ Preservation of nuclear infrastructure
📊 For crypto, oil becomes the key macro indicator:
▪️ If oil stays below $106–107, Bitcoin may continue pushing toward $82K–85K
▪️ Further escalation and rising oil could drag BTC back to the $76K–78K range
Meanwhile:
💰Spot BTC ETFs have seen 6 straight weeks of inflows (+$3.4B)
🪨 BlackRock is launching tokenized US Treasury funds on Ethereum
🐳 A dormant wallet moved 500 BTC after 12.5 years of inactivity
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to the US peace proposal, calling it “absolutely unacceptable.” After the statement, Brent crude jumped more than 5% and moved above $100 per barrel as markets priced in renewed escalation risk.
Iran reportedly demanded:
▪️ End of sanctions and naval blockade
▪️ No further strikes
▪️ Compensation for damages
▪️ Recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz
▪️ Preservation of nuclear infrastructure
📊 For crypto, oil becomes the key macro indicator:
▪️ If oil stays below $106–107, Bitcoin may continue pushing toward $82K–85K
▪️ Further escalation and rising oil could drag BTC back to the $76K–78K range
Meanwhile:
💰Spot BTC ETFs have seen 6 straight weeks of inflows (+$3.4B)
🪨 BlackRock is launching tokenized US Treasury funds on Ethereum
🐳 A dormant wallet moved 500 BTC after 12.5 years of inactivity
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🧠 “Sell 1 BTC to buy 10–20 more”
Michael Saylor finally explained why selling a small amount of BTC to pay dividends may not be as bearish as people feared.
The idea:
▪️ Strategy raises billions through STRC
▪️ Uses the capital to buy BTC
▪️ BTC appreciates
▪️ Sells a tiny portion (~$80–90M) to cover fixed dividend payments
▪️ Keeps the majority of the gains in Bitcoin
In a strong bull market, the math looks genius: sell 1 BTC worth of value while ending up with 10–20 extra BTC acquired from earlier appreciation.
⚠️ But there’s a catch.
STRC dividends are fixed in dollars, while BTC is volatile.
If Bitcoin keeps rising, the machine works beautifully.
If BTC enters a long bear market, Strategy would need to sell more coins at lower prices just to meet the same obligations — potentially creating additional downward pressure.
📊 The entire model depends on one assumption:
Bitcoin must keep appreciating over time. 📈🤔
Michael Saylor finally explained why selling a small amount of BTC to pay dividends may not be as bearish as people feared.
The idea:
▪️ Strategy raises billions through STRC
▪️ Uses the capital to buy BTC
▪️ BTC appreciates
▪️ Sells a tiny portion (~$80–90M) to cover fixed dividend payments
▪️ Keeps the majority of the gains in Bitcoin
In a strong bull market, the math looks genius: sell 1 BTC worth of value while ending up with 10–20 extra BTC acquired from earlier appreciation.
⚠️ But there’s a catch.
STRC dividends are fixed in dollars, while BTC is volatile.
If Bitcoin keeps rising, the machine works beautifully.
If BTC enters a long bear market, Strategy would need to sell more coins at lower prices just to meet the same obligations — potentially creating additional downward pressure.
📊 The entire model depends on one assumption:
Bitcoin must keep appreciating over time. 📈🤔
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🖥 Exactly 16 years ago, Bitcoin mining made its first big leap: a developer demonstrated that GPUs could calculate hashes far more efficiently than standard CPUs
That moment changed everything.
📈 After miners began switching from CPUs to graphics cards, Bitcoin’s network hash rate exploded by roughly 130,000%, kicking off the industrialization of mining.
What started as people mining BTC on home computers soon evolved into GPU farms, then ASICs, and eventually a multi-billion-dollar global industry.
💡 One small optimization ended up reshaping the entire economics and security model of Bitcoin forever.
That moment changed everything.
📈 After miners began switching from CPUs to graphics cards, Bitcoin’s network hash rate exploded by roughly 130,000%, kicking off the industrialization of mining.
What started as people mining BTC on home computers soon evolved into GPU farms, then ASICs, and eventually a multi-billion-dollar global industry.
💡 One small optimization ended up reshaping the entire economics and security model of Bitcoin forever.
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📈 S&P 500 is approaching another historic milestone … or maybe another bubble
If 2026 closes with ~20% gains, it would mark the 4th consecutive year of double-digit returns. Since 2023, the index has already surged nearly 93%. 🙀
Such streaks are extremely rare in history:
▪️ 1942–45 — WWII spending and economic mobilization
▪️ 1949–52 — postwar boom and credit expansion
▪️ 1995–99 — the dot-com bubble
▪️ 2023–26 — the AI race: NVIDIA, Big Tech, data centers, rate-cut hopes, and belief in a new tech cycle
💡 The key question isn’t whether the market can rally another 10–20%.
It probably can.
The real question is whether future events — maybe even a potential SpaceX IPO — become the symbolic “top signal” of this cycle, just like dot-com listings did in 1999.
Euphoria can last longer than expected. But the closer markets get to mania, the more important risk management becomes.
If 2026 closes with ~20% gains, it would mark the 4th consecutive year of double-digit returns. Since 2023, the index has already surged nearly 93%. 🙀
Such streaks are extremely rare in history:
▪️ 1942–45 — WWII spending and economic mobilization
▪️ 1949–52 — postwar boom and credit expansion
▪️ 1995–99 — the dot-com bubble
▪️ 2023–26 — the AI race: NVIDIA, Big Tech, data centers, rate-cut hopes, and belief in a new tech cycle
💡 The key question isn’t whether the market can rally another 10–20%.
It probably can.
The real question is whether future events — maybe even a potential SpaceX IPO — become the symbolic “top signal” of this cycle, just like dot-com listings did in 1999.
Euphoria can last longer than expected. But the closer markets get to mania, the more important risk management becomes.
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💰 Circle raised $222M in a presale for Arc — its new blockchain focused on tokenized finance — at a $3B FDV valuation
The round was led by a16z, with participation from BlackRock, Apollo, ARK Invest, Standard Chartered, SBI Group, and other major financial players. 💵
Circle will receive 25% of Arc’s initial 10B token supply, while 60% is reserved for users, developers, and ecosystem participants.
Arc is being positioned as a public blockchain built specifically for large financial institutions. With this move, Circle is aiming to expand far beyond USDC and become a core infrastructure provider for tokenized financial services.
The bigger bet: Circle believes that eventually “every company in the world” will be tokenized, with digital tokens becoming the standard way businesses interact with investors and customers.
The round was led by a16z, with participation from BlackRock, Apollo, ARK Invest, Standard Chartered, SBI Group, and other major financial players. 💵
Circle will receive 25% of Arc’s initial 10B token supply, while 60% is reserved for users, developers, and ecosystem participants.
Arc is being positioned as a public blockchain built specifically for large financial institutions. With this move, Circle is aiming to expand far beyond USDC and become a core infrastructure provider for tokenized financial services.
The bigger bet: Circle believes that eventually “every company in the world” will be tokenized, with digital tokens becoming the standard way businesses interact with investors and customers.
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Crypto soothsayer
📈 S&P 500 is approaching another historic milestone … or maybe another bubble If 2026 closes with ~20% gains, it would mark the 4th consecutive year of double-digit returns. Since 2023, the index has already surged nearly 93%. 🙀 Such streaks are extremely…
🤖 Michael Burry says today’s market is starting to look a lot like the final stage of the 1999–2000 dot-com bubble
According to Burry, the market has become completely obsessed with AI, while stocks increasingly ignore economic data and continue rising simply because they were already going up before.
He compared the current rally in the semiconductor index SOX to the tech mania before the 2000 crash. The index is already up more than 65% in 2026 alone, including a 10% jump in just one week. 🧐
Macro investor Paul Tudor Jones agrees that the AI boom resembles 1999, but believes the rally could continue for another 1–2 years before a major correction hits. 📉
His warning: if valuations keep expanding, the eventual sell-off could be “breathtaking.”
P.S. Michael Burry’s story inspired the movie “The Big Short.” 🎲
According to Burry, the market has become completely obsessed with AI, while stocks increasingly ignore economic data and continue rising simply because they were already going up before.
He compared the current rally in the semiconductor index SOX to the tech mania before the 2000 crash. The index is already up more than 65% in 2026 alone, including a 10% jump in just one week. 🧐
Macro investor Paul Tudor Jones agrees that the AI boom resembles 1999, but believes the rally could continue for another 1–2 years before a major correction hits. 📉
His warning: if valuations keep expanding, the eventual sell-off could be “breathtaking.”
P.S. Michael Burry’s story inspired the movie “The Big Short.” 🎲
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💰 Strategy added another 535 BTC worth ~$43M at an average price of $80,340 per coin
As of May 10, the company now holds 818,869 BTC — nearly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply — acquired for a total of $61.86B at an average cost basis of ~$75,540. 💵
What makes this buy notable is its relatively small size compared to Strategy’s previous acquisitions. Just a week earlier, the company skipped its regular BTC purchase cycle, while also warning that it may need to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings in the future to cover dividends tied to STRC. 🤔
Even so, Michael Saylor’s company continues steadily increasing its Bitcoin position despite growing discussions around leverage, dilution, and sustainability.
As of May 10, the company now holds 818,869 BTC — nearly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply — acquired for a total of $61.86B at an average cost basis of ~$75,540. 💵
What makes this buy notable is its relatively small size compared to Strategy’s previous acquisitions. Just a week earlier, the company skipped its regular BTC purchase cycle, while also warning that it may need to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings in the future to cover dividends tied to STRC. 🤔
Even so, Michael Saylor’s company continues steadily increasing its Bitcoin position despite growing discussions around leverage, dilution, and sustainability.
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🇨🇺 Another “peacekeeping mission” may be loading…
The U.S. military has sharply increased reconnaissance flights and drone activity around Cuba — the same pattern that previously appeared before operations linked to Venezuela and the Iran conflict. ⚔️
Trump has already hinted that Cuba could be “next” on the geopolitical agenda. The only question now is timing. 😬
Meanwhile, markets seem completely unbothered:
• Elon Musk and Tim Cook are heading to China alongside Trump
• The S&P 500 is pushing fresh highs on hopes of major U.S.–China deals
• Bitcoin climbed back above $81K
And despite Trump calling the Iran ceasefire “fragile” and discussing a possible revival of “Project Freedom” to secure the Strait of Hormuz, traders are still acting like nothing can go wrong. 🤔
The U.S. military has sharply increased reconnaissance flights and drone activity around Cuba — the same pattern that previously appeared before operations linked to Venezuela and the Iran conflict. ⚔️
Trump has already hinted that Cuba could be “next” on the geopolitical agenda. The only question now is timing. 😬
Meanwhile, markets seem completely unbothered:
• Elon Musk and Tim Cook are heading to China alongside Trump
• The S&P 500 is pushing fresh highs on hopes of major U.S.–China deals
• Bitcoin climbed back above $81K
And despite Trump calling the Iran ceasefire “fragile” and discussing a possible revival of “Project Freedom” to secure the Strait of Hormuz, traders are still acting like nothing can go wrong. 🤔
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⚡️ Bitcoin miner MARA is no longer calling itself just a mining company
📨 In its latest shareholder letter, MARA repositioned itself as a digital infrastructure company focused on energy-powered systems for:
• AI
• high-performance computing
• sovereign computing infrastructure
• and Bitcoin mining
The company believes the biggest bottleneck in the AI race is no longer chip supply — it’s access to energy. 🔋
That shift says a lot about where the market is heading. Bitcoin miners already control massive energy infrastructure and data center capacity, making them natural candidates to pivot into AI and computing services.
The line between “Bitcoin miner” and “AI infrastructure provider” is starting to disappear.
📨 In its latest shareholder letter, MARA repositioned itself as a digital infrastructure company focused on energy-powered systems for:
• AI
• high-performance computing
• sovereign computing infrastructure
• and Bitcoin mining
The company believes the biggest bottleneck in the AI race is no longer chip supply — it’s access to energy. 🔋
That shift says a lot about where the market is heading. Bitcoin miners already control massive energy infrastructure and data center capacity, making them natural candidates to pivot into AI and computing services.
The line between “Bitcoin miner” and “AI infrastructure provider” is starting to disappear.
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🏛 The U.S. Senate has preliminarily approved Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Board, with the final vote for Fed Chair happening tomorrow
Trump’s pick is expected to officially take office on May 15, but markets still don’t believe a rate cut is coming at the June 17 Fed meeting. 😒
Today’s main focus is U.S. inflation data. Economists expect CPI to rise 0.4% — and anything hotter than that could pressure risk assets, including stocks and crypto. 👀
For now, the market narrative is simple:
• soft inflation = bullish
• hot inflation = “higher for longer” panic returns
Trump’s pick is expected to officially take office on May 15, but markets still don’t believe a rate cut is coming at the June 17 Fed meeting. 😒
Today’s main focus is U.S. inflation data. Economists expect CPI to rise 0.4% — and anything hotter than that could pressure risk assets, including stocks and crypto. 👀
For now, the market narrative is simple:
• soft inflation = bullish
• hot inflation = “higher for longer” panic returns
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🔎 CryptoQuant says Zcash may once again be flashing a warning signal for Bitcoin
Historically, strong ZEC pumps often appeared near major BTC turning points — either when the market was overheating or recovering from deep capitulation. 👀
Now the Zcash Risk Indicator has entered the red zone again, suggesting elevated volatility and a possible trend reversal ahead. 🎢
It doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to crash, but traders are watching closely because ZEC has repeatedly acted like a strange “canary in the coal mine” for crypto sentiment. 🐦⬛️
When old privacy coins suddenly wake up, the market usually gets interesting.
Historically, strong ZEC pumps often appeared near major BTC turning points — either when the market was overheating or recovering from deep capitulation. 👀
Now the Zcash Risk Indicator has entered the red zone again, suggesting elevated volatility and a possible trend reversal ahead. 🎢
It doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to crash, but traders are watching closely because ZEC has repeatedly acted like a strange “canary in the coal mine” for crypto sentiment. 🐦⬛️
When old privacy coins suddenly wake up, the market usually gets interesting.
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📊 Bitcoin: halfway to the next halving
Today we’ve reached the 50% point of the cycle between the last and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. ✂️
Bitcoin is entering the mid-stage of its 4-year issuance cycle. The next halving is expected in ~2 years, when mining rewards will be cut in half again.
At the moment, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the next halving, this subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC, further reducing new supply issuance. 🧐
Historically, halving cycles have been a key structural driver of Bitcoin’s long-term supply tightening and market cycles.
Today we’ve reached the 50% point of the cycle between the last and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. ✂️
Bitcoin is entering the mid-stage of its 4-year issuance cycle. The next halving is expected in ~2 years, when mining rewards will be cut in half again.
At the moment, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block. After the next halving, this subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC, further reducing new supply issuance. 🧐
Historically, halving cycles have been a key structural driver of Bitcoin’s long-term supply tightening and market cycles.
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🇺🇸📈 US inflation jumped to 3.8% — the highest level since September 2023
April CPI rose 0.5%, coming in above expectations (3.7%). Markets are reacting relatively calmly for now:
• S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• BTC had already corrected below $81k ahead of the report
Two potential red flags for markets:
🔴 inflation accelerating above 4% in May
🔴 the Fed shifting back toward rate hikes if price growth continues
A lot may depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens in May, since energy prices remain one of the biggest inflation drivers globally. 🌐
April CPI rose 0.5%, coming in above expectations (3.7%). Markets are reacting relatively calmly for now:
• S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• BTC had already corrected below $81k ahead of the report
Two potential red flags for markets:
🔴 inflation accelerating above 4% in May
🔴 the Fed shifting back toward rate hikes if price growth continues
A lot may depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens in May, since energy prices remain one of the biggest inflation drivers globally. 🌐
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😮 According to Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders have experienced only a fraction of the stress seen during previous cycle bottoms
Their relative unrealized losses peaked at around 15% in early April. For comparison, during past deep bear markets this metric climbed above 75%. 🧐
Despite the recent correction, conviction among long-term BTC holders remains unusually strong. Historically, true capitulation phases came with far deeper pain and panic than what the market has seen so far this cycle. 📊
Their relative unrealized losses peaked at around 15% in early April. For comparison, during past deep bear markets this metric climbed above 75%. 🧐
Despite the recent correction, conviction among long-term BTC holders remains unusually strong. Historically, true capitulation phases came with far deeper pain and panic than what the market has seen so far this cycle. 📊
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📈 Bitcoin may be flashing its first early bull market signal
🔎 Historically, transitions into the “early bull” zone often marked the end of the worst market phase and the beginning of trend recovery. Similar signals appeared in 2019 and early 2023 — both before major BTC rallies.
But there’s an important catch 👇
In March 2022, the same indicator also flipped bullish, only for the market to form a local top and continue falling afterward.
This time, the signal coincides with progress on the Clarity Act in the US — a bill that could bring clearer crypto regulations and strengthen institutional interest in the sector. 📝
The 30DMA shows improving momentum, although some on-chain metrics still point to overheated conditions.
For now, this looks more like a potential market regime shift than confirmation of a full bull run. May could become the key month for direction. 🤔
🔎 Historically, transitions into the “early bull” zone often marked the end of the worst market phase and the beginning of trend recovery. Similar signals appeared in 2019 and early 2023 — both before major BTC rallies.
But there’s an important catch 👇
In March 2022, the same indicator also flipped bullish, only for the market to form a local top and continue falling afterward.
This time, the signal coincides with progress on the Clarity Act in the US — a bill that could bring clearer crypto regulations and strengthen institutional interest in the sector. 📝
The 30DMA shows improving momentum, although some on-chain metrics still point to overheated conditions.
For now, this looks more like a potential market regime shift than confirmation of a full bull run. May could become the key month for direction. 🤔
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🔥 Ethereum introduced Clear Signing — an open standard designed to replace “blind signing” with human-readable transaction approvals
Instead of showing users a confusing string of symbols, wallets will now be able to clearly display:
• which asset is being sent
• who receives it
• the amount
• transaction conditions
This is a major step forward for crypto security after years of phishing attacks and wallet drains caused by users signing transactions without understanding what they were actually approving. 💪
If widely adopted, Clear Signing could significantly reduce one of the biggest UX and security problems in Web3.
Instead of showing users a confusing string of symbols, wallets will now be able to clearly display:
• which asset is being sent
• who receives it
• the amount
• transaction conditions
This is a major step forward for crypto security after years of phishing attacks and wallet drains caused by users signing transactions without understanding what they were actually approving. 💪
If widely adopted, Clear Signing could significantly reduce one of the biggest UX and security problems in Web3.
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