☹️ Altcoins stuck near the bottom

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, over 40% of altcoins are currently trading near their all-time lows.

📊 For comparison, during the previous bear market, this figure peaked at around 38%.

💡 That means today’s conditions are even more extreme — a large portion of the market is still deeply depressed

Binance is launching futures on oil and natural gas, with leverage up to 100x — going live tomorrow 🚀

📊 This marks a deeper push into TradFi markets, letting users trade macro assets directly on a crypto platform.

Looks like Hyperliquid won’t be the only one farming liquidity from traders chasing commodities. 🤪

✏️ The line between crypto and traditional markets keeps fading — now even oil trades like a degen asset. 😄

📊 Bitcoin adoption in the US keeps growing

🔎 According to River, around 51M Americans — roughly 1 in 5 adults — own Bitcoin.

For comparison, about 171M people invest in the stock market.

💡 While equities still dominate, the gap is shrinking faster than many expected — BTC is no longer niche, but a mainstream asset.

🧠 In just over a decade, Bitcoin has gone from an experiment to something held by tens of millions — and it’s still catching up.

Nakamoto Inc sold 284 Bitcoin for $20M at an average price of ~$70,422

Back in 2025, the company bought 5,342 BTC for $632M at an average of $118,171 per coin.

😬 That’s a painful gap — selling far below their entry.

📊 Living paycheck to paycheck is the global norm

Across most economies, around 50–60% of workers live paycheck to paycheck:

▪️ US — 60%
▪️ Germany — 51%
▪️ Spain — 57%
▪️ UK — 49%

📉 Even higher in developing markets:

▪️ Philippines — 78%
▪️ Peru — 73%
▪️ UAE — 72%
▪️ Chile — 70%
▪️ Egypt — 84% (worst)

📊 Lower levels are seen in:

▪️ Japan — 29%
▪️ China — 31%
▪️ South Korea — 18%

💡 Despite differences in income levels, financial pressure remains widespread — for many, income still barely covers expenses regardless of the country.

⚠️ Quantum threat to crypto security?

🤖 Google Quantum AI warns that breaking ECC-256 — a widely used cryptographic standard — may require far fewer resources than previously thought: <500K qubits and minutes of runtime.

📝 ECC-256 underpins security for many systems, including Bitcoin wallets and other blockchain infrastructure.

The company urges a rapid shift toward post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to stay ahead of potential risks.

While practical quantum attacks aren’t here yet, the gap is narrowing — and the industry may need to upgrade its foundations sooner than expected. 🧐

😱 Fear dominates the market

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is showing one of the longest “extreme fear” periods in Bitcoin history.

📊 According to Bitcoin Magazine, similar prolonged fear phases in past cycles often came right before market bottoms.

😨 Sentiment is clearly weak — but historically, that’s when conditions for reversal start building.

🧠 When everyone is scared for too long, the market tends to surprise the other way.

🇺🇸 Trump is shaking global markets

Overnight, Donald Trump said the US could end its military campaign against Iran within 2–3 weeks.

📈 Market reaction:
▪️ US +$1.75T market cap
▪️ Asia +$1T
▪️ Bitcoin +2% (≈ $69K)

However, this isn’t new. Trump has repeatedly claimed:
▸ The US already defeated Iran
▸ The operation is ahead of schedule
▸ The conflict is over
▸ Negotiations are underway

Each time, markets pumped — then reversed when statements didn’t hold up. 🤷

📊 Feels like a repeating cycle: bold claims → rally → reality check → dump.

Either investors have short memory, or the conflict is actually nearing its end. 🤔

Bitcoin snapped a 5-month losing streak, closing March +2%, while Ethereum broke 6 months of decline with a +7% gain 📈

However, the bigger picture is still weak:

▪️ BTC closed Q1 at -22%
▪️ ETH dropped -29%

👀 Key level to watch: BTC faces strong resistance at $70K — a breakout could open the path to $75K.

⚠️ But markets remain highly dependent on macro headlines, especially statements from Donald Trump and escalating tensions around Strait of Hormuz, where the United Arab Emirates may get involved.

🤔 Q2 could turn green — but volatility and geopolitics will likely decide the direction.

🧪 New Zcash upgrade with EVM + airdrop angle

Core Foundation is launching its first “franchise protocol” — Z Protocol, a new L1 designed to scale Zcash.

📊 What’s new:
▪️ First attempt to bring EVM compatibility to Zcash
▪️ Uses Core’s “Satoshi Plus” model (mix of mining + staking)
▪️ Enables DeFi stack: trading, lending, stablecoin (USDZ)

⚡️ Tokenomics:
▪️ Part of fees goes back to Core
▪️ CORE holders get preferential access + potential airdrops

🧠 Big idea: combine privacy + EVM + AI-ready infra — targeting a niche where almost no serious competition exists.

🚀 Launch expected in H2 2026, with a focus on private DeFi and future AI-agent interactions on-chain.

🔎 ECB looks into DeFi… using DeFi data

The European Central Bank used data from DefiLlama as a core source in its report on who can actually be regulated in DeFi.

🗝 Key insight:
Even without formal companies, DeFi isn’t as “ownerless” as it seems.

▪️ Control points still exist: developers, DAOs, governance token holders, oracles, frontends
▪️ “Full decentralization” is mostly theoretical — real influence is concentrated in specific groups

✔️ Conclusion: regulators may shift focus from abstract protocols to people and entities behind them — meaning DeFi could face more targeted regulation going forward.

📊 Top crypto holders revealed

Arkham published an updated ranking of the top 100 richest on-chain verified crypto holders.

🏆 Top 5:

▪️ Binance — $136B
▪️ Coinbase — $88B
▪️ Satoshi Nakamoto — $72B
▪️ BlackRock — $58B
▪️ Lido — $38B

Also in the top 10: Fidelity, MicroStrategy (Strategy), the United States Government, Aave, and Robinhood — a new entrant.

📝 The list highlights growing institutional dominance, with exchanges, funds, and governments controlling a massive share of on-chain wealth.

🎤 Trump’s “big speech” — markets not impressed 🤷

Donald Trump previewed his key talking points before addressing the nation: a possible end to the war in 2–3 weeks, threats to strike Iran, dismissal of the Strait of Hormuz importance, and confidence in the US economy.

📢 In the speech:
▪️ Aggressive rhetoric and escalation threats
▪️ Claims that Iran is already “defeated”
▪️ Mixed signals about ongoing negotiations

📉 Market reaction:
▪️ Brent oil → $108
▪️ Gold & silver down
▪️ S&P 500 futures падают
▪️ Bitcoin back below $67K

Bottom line: contradictory statements increased uncertainty and volatility. 🎢

While everyone tries to interpret the narrative, someone is clearly profiting from the chaos. 🤔

😮 $285M hack hits DeFi

Overnight, an unknown attacker exploited Drift Protocol, draining ~ $285M in various tokens.

💰 Biggest losses:

▪️ $JLP — ~$160M
▪️ USD Coin — ~$71M

🕵️‍♂️ ZachXBT criticized Circle for a slow response — the hacker reportedly bridged USDC to Ethereum and swapped it before any freeze could happen.

📉 Market reaction was chaotic:

▪️ $DRIFT dropped ~30%
▪️ On Bithumb, it spiked ~180% (KRW pair)

🧩 The situation is still unfolding — no official post-mortem yet. Meanwhile, traders are already turning the chaos into opportunity.

📊 DEX activity cools down

In March, spot trading volume on decentralized exchanges dropped to $155B — the lowest level since September 2024.

📉 The decline signals weakening on-chain activity and reduced retail participation, following months of market pressure.

⚠️ Lower volumes often mean less liquidity and higher volatility, making price moves less predictable.

🤔 For now, the trend suggests traders are either stepping back or shifting back to centralized platforms — at least until stronger market momentum returns.

🅱️ Bitcoin holders are locking in heavy losses

Since October 2025, realized losses on Bitcoin have exceeded $64.2B, according to CryptoQuant. 🧐

📉 This reflects strong selling pressure and capitulation from investors during recent market weakness.

However, in perspective:
▪️ 2021–2022 bear market losses reached $125.2B

🤔 Conclusion: current pain is significant, but still far from previous bear market extremes — suggesting the cycle may not be fully exhausted yet.

📊 Geopolitics heating up during market pause

Due to Easter, US stock markets are closed until April 6 — creating a window where major events could unfold without immediate market reaction.

According to Donald Trump’s logic, this could be the “perfect timing” for a ground operation against Iran.

📊 On Polymarket, odds of a US landing operation in April are already at 67%.

⚠️ However, intelligence sources say Iran still retains:
▪️ ~50% of missile launch systems
▪️ Thousands of drones
▪️ A large arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles 🤔

📉 Public companies are selling Bitcoin

Several firms that previously followed Michael Saylor’s accumulation strategy are now reducing their Bitcoin holdings.

📊 Recent moves:
▪️ Empery Digital sold 370 BTC (~$24.7M), cutting reserves from ~4000 to 2989 BTC
▪️ Genius Group fully exited BTC, selling its last 84 coins to cover debt
▪️ Riot Platforms moved another 500 BTC (~$34M) to exchanges, continuing to fund AI projects

💰 Despite selling, public companies still hold ~1.16M BTC (>5% of supply).
▪️ ~762K BTC is held by MicroStrategy (Strategy), the largest corporate holder

🤔 Trend shift: some players are taking profits or reallocating, while Strategy remains the dominant long-term accumulator.

📊 Perp DEX market snapshot

Hyperliquid dominates the perp DEX space with:

▪️ $7B open interest
▪️ $200B monthly volume
▪️ ~54% of total DEX perpetual activity

🚀 The surge is largely driven by oil-related contracts, which spiked amid the conflict involving Iran.

📈 Traders are активно rotating into geopolitical narratives, turning commodities like oil into one of the hottest plays on-chain.

🤔 Takeaway: perp DEX activity is increasingly tied not just to crypto, but to global macro — and right now, war = volume.

📆 Bitcoin halfway to next halving

Hard to believe, but in just ~1,600 blocks (~11 days), Bitcoin will reach the midpoint to the next halving.

🎯 This milestone is expected at block 945,000, according to Glassnode.

⛏️ It means half of the emission cycle since the last halving is already behind us — and historically, this phase often marks a shift in market dynamics.

🤔 With supply tightening over time, attention now turns to how demand will react as the next halving gradually approaches.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US–Iran Tensions: Ceasefire Talks vs New Deadline

Reports suggest the US, Iran, and mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire — a potential first step toward ending the conflict. 🧐

At the same time, Donald Trump has issued a new ultimatum: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or face possible strikes on its energy infrastructure.

Markets reacted unevenly:

📈Crypto showed optimism — BTC gained ~3% in 24h, trading near $69K
😴Traditional markets remained muted due to extended Easter holidays in the US (stock exchanges closed)