🔎 2025 TGE reality check
Most token launches in 2025 have turned out to be disappointing. According to recent data, 100 out of 118 TGEs (84.7%) are now trading below their initial valuations. 🧐
The main reasons cited by analysts are familiar: overinflated valuations at launch and a lack of real token utility. In many cases, hype faded quickly once early incentives ended, leaving little organic demand. 🤷
The takeaway is clear: the market is becoming less forgiving. Strong fundamentals and real use cases matter more than ever, while “launch first, figure it out later” tokenomics are no longer working. 🍔
Most token launches in 2025 have turned out to be disappointing. According to recent data, 100 out of 118 TGEs (84.7%) are now trading below their initial valuations. 🧐
The main reasons cited by analysts are familiar: overinflated valuations at launch and a lack of real token utility. In many cases, hype faded quickly once early incentives ended, leaving little organic demand. 🤷
The takeaway is clear: the market is becoming less forgiving. Strong fundamentals and real use cases matter more than ever, while “launch first, figure it out later” tokenomics are no longer working. 🍔
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😒 Crypto loses the race in 2025
So far, traditional assets are clearly outperforming crypto this year.
Annual returns:
• Silver: +130%
• Gold: +65%
• Copper: +35%
• Nasdaq: +20%
• S&P 500: +16%
• Russell 2000: +13%
Meanwhile, crypto is lagging:
• BTC: -6%
• ETH: -12%
• Altcoins: -42%
In 2025, capital has flowed back into commodities and equities, while the crypto market struggles with drawdowns and weak risk appetite. A clear reminder that crypto doesn’t always win every cycle. 🤷
So far, traditional assets are clearly outperforming crypto this year.
Annual returns:
• Silver: +130%
• Gold: +65%
• Copper: +35%
• Nasdaq: +20%
• S&P 500: +16%
• Russell 2000: +13%
Meanwhile, crypto is lagging:
• BTC: -6%
• ETH: -12%
• Altcoins: -42%
In 2025, capital has flowed back into commodities and equities, while the crypto market struggles with drawdowns and weak risk appetite. A clear reminder that crypto doesn’t always win every cycle. 🤷
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📉 Bitcoin fell short of big players’ forecasts
Wu Blockchain reviewed major Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 and compared them with reality. After the 2024 halving, the launch of US crypto ETFs, and rising institutional interest, many large firms expected a powerful rally, modeling BTC in the $200k–$250k range. 🚀
In practice, Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October at $126k, then corrected by around 30%, never reaching the projected targets. 🤷
Key expectations vs reality:
• KuCoin Research: up to $250k on ETF and institutional demand
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine): $250k target
• Matrixport: $160k, calling 2025 a breakout year
• Bitwise: new ATH above $200k
• VanEck: peak near $180k, then correction
• Galaxy Research: $150k–$185k by year end
None of these scenarios fully played out, highlighting once again how difficult long-term BTC forecasting remains — even for the biggest institutions.
Wu Blockchain reviewed major Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 and compared them with reality. After the 2024 halving, the launch of US crypto ETFs, and rising institutional interest, many large firms expected a powerful rally, modeling BTC in the $200k–$250k range. 🚀
In practice, Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October at $126k, then corrected by around 30%, never reaching the projected targets. 🤷
Key expectations vs reality:
• KuCoin Research: up to $250k on ETF and institutional demand
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine): $250k target
• Matrixport: $160k, calling 2025 a breakout year
• Bitwise: new ATH above $200k
• VanEck: peak near $180k, then correction
• Galaxy Research: $150k–$185k by year end
None of these scenarios fully played out, highlighting once again how difficult long-term BTC forecasting remains — even for the biggest institutions.
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📉 Top altcoins: 2025 recap
Not exactly a year to celebrate for most altcoins.
👉 A real “altseason” happened only for:
• Zcash: +613%
• Monero: +125%
Everything else disappointed. Even Dogecoin, once hyped by Elon Musk, ended the year down –61% 😭
The takeaway: in 2025, privacy coins outperformed, while the majority of top alts failed to deliver any meaningful gains.
Not exactly a year to celebrate for most altcoins.
👉 A real “altseason” happened only for:
• Zcash: +613%
• Monero: +125%
Everything else disappointed. Even Dogecoin, once hyped by Elon Musk, ended the year down –61% 😭
The takeaway: in 2025, privacy coins outperformed, while the majority of top alts failed to deliver any meaningful gains.
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🥷 Hackers vs Investors: the harsh crypto reality
📊 The data paints a clear picture: hackers are far more consistent than investors and continue to drain money from the market as long as capital keeps flowing in.
🛍 Stolen funds vs total investments:
• 2021 — 8%
• 2022 — 10%
• 2023 — 25%
• 2024 — 20%
• 2025 — 10%
Despite growing infrastructure and regulations, crypto still resembles the Wild West. Scammers are often hard to track down, and in most cases, there’s simply no one to claim compensation from. 👀
📊 The data paints a clear picture: hackers are far more consistent than investors and continue to drain money from the market as long as capital keeps flowing in.
🛍 Stolen funds vs total investments:
• 2021 — 8%
• 2022 — 10%
• 2023 — 25%
• 2024 — 20%
• 2025 — 10%
Despite growing infrastructure and regulations, crypto still resembles the Wild West. Scammers are often hard to track down, and in most cases, there’s simply no one to claim compensation from. 👀
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📉 Tom Lee warns of a major correction in H1 2026
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee now expects a significant market correction in the first half of 2026, according to his latest client note. 🧐
🎯 Target ranges during the correction:
• BTC: $60k–65k
• ETH: $1,800–2,000
• SOL: $50–75
This marks a sharp shift in tone. Just recently, Lee called ETH “deeply undervalued” at $3k and was targeting $15k by the end of 2025. That scenario now appears effectively off the table.
The takeaway: even the most bullish strategists are starting to price in serious downside risk. 😥
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee now expects a significant market correction in the first half of 2026, according to his latest client note. 🧐
🎯 Target ranges during the correction:
• BTC: $60k–65k
• ETH: $1,800–2,000
• SOL: $50–75
This marks a sharp shift in tone. Just recently, Lee called ETH “deeply undervalued” at $3k and was targeting $15k by the end of 2025. That scenario now appears effectively off the table.
The takeaway: even the most bullish strategists are starting to price in serious downside risk. 😥
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🔮 Vitalik Buterin on prediction markets vs social media
He says prediction markets are a more rational alternative to social media, especially when discussing controversial or emotional topics. 👀
On social platforms, people can spread panic or extreme opinions with zero responsibility. Media often amplify this effect with clickbait headlines. Prediction markets work differently: every opinion has a financial cost. If your take is wrong or careless, you lose money. 🤷💵
In short, markets force accountability — and that makes discussions more grounded in reality.
He says prediction markets are a more rational alternative to social media, especially when discussing controversial or emotional topics. 👀
On social platforms, people can spread panic or extreme opinions with zero responsibility. Media often amplify this effect with clickbait headlines. Prediction markets work differently: every opinion has a financial cost. If your take is wrong or careless, you lose money. 🤷💵
In short, markets force accountability — and that makes discussions more grounded in reality.
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🇬🇭 Ghana officially legalizes crypto
🗒 Ghana’s parliament has passed a law that brings crypto into the legal and regulated space. The new bill allows the licensing of crypto platforms and gives the central bank oversight over the market.
📊Around 3 million Ghanaians (17% of adults) already use crypto, so authorities decided it’s better to regulate than ignore it. The goal is more transparency, lower risks for the local currency, and clearer rules for businesses.
Crypto activity in Ghana hit $3B in transactions over the past year — a strong signal that adoption is already here, now with legal backing. 💪
🗒 Ghana’s parliament has passed a law that brings crypto into the legal and regulated space. The new bill allows the licensing of crypto platforms and gives the central bank oversight over the market.
📊Around 3 million Ghanaians (17% of adults) already use crypto, so authorities decided it’s better to regulate than ignore it. The goal is more transparency, lower risks for the local currency, and clearer rules for businesses.
Crypto activity in Ghana hit $3B in transactions over the past year — a strong signal that adoption is already here, now with legal backing. 💪
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🐂 Gold hits a new ATH — will BTC follow?
Historically, when gold enters a strong uptrend and prints new all-time highs, Bitcoin tends to follow with a delay. This pattern has appeared in multiple past cycles. 👀
We’re seeing a similar setup now: gold is already at record levels, while BTC is still moving sideways and not rushing higher. If history rhymes, the next step could be liquidity gradually rotating from precious metals into the crypto market. 🤔
Watching closely for that shift 📤
Historically, when gold enters a strong uptrend and prints new all-time highs, Bitcoin tends to follow with a delay. This pattern has appeared in multiple past cycles. 👀
We’re seeing a similar setup now: gold is already at record levels, while BTC is still moving sideways and not rushing higher. If history rhymes, the next step could be liquidity gradually rotating from precious metals into the crypto market. 🤔
Watching closely for that shift 📤
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😥 Altcoins hit extreme oversold levels
📉 Altcoins have dropped to oversold conditions last seen during the COVID crash. Across the market, prices are sitting near multi-year lows, making many traders ask the same question: how much lower can they really go? 🤔
Historically, such extreme pessimism and compression often appear near cycle bottoms, though timing remains uncertain. For now, the data highlights just how washed out sentiment in altcoins has become. 👀
📉 Altcoins have dropped to oversold conditions last seen during the COVID crash. Across the market, prices are sitting near multi-year lows, making many traders ask the same question: how much lower can they really go? 🤔
Historically, such extreme pessimism and compression often appear near cycle bottoms, though timing remains uncertain. For now, the data highlights just how washed out sentiment in altcoins has become. 👀
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👀 CoinMarketCap outlook for 2026: less hype, more maturity
CoinMarketCap’s 2026 forecast isn’t about a classic bull run — it’s about a shift in how crypto creates value. 💰
📝 The era of endless new L1s and L2s is fading. Capital is moving away from chains “just because” and toward apps people actually use — products with revenue, distribution, and control over user experience. Super apps start to matter more than base protocols.
💵 Regulation turns from an enemy into a filter: projects that survive gain clearer economics like revenue sharing and buybacks. UX stops being a feature and becomes the strategy itself.
🔮 Prediction markets quietly gain relevance through partnerships and distribution, not hype. L2s don’t disappear — they evolve into app-specific rails. RWAs show real demand, but adoption stays slow due to pricing and structure.
🏦 For investors, the mindset changes too: fewer “one-token bets,” more indexes, sectors, and risk-managed strategies.
CoinMarketCap’s 2026 forecast isn’t about a classic bull run — it’s about a shift in how crypto creates value. 💰
📝 The era of endless new L1s and L2s is fading. Capital is moving away from chains “just because” and toward apps people actually use — products with revenue, distribution, and control over user experience. Super apps start to matter more than base protocols.
💵 Regulation turns from an enemy into a filter: projects that survive gain clearer economics like revenue sharing and buybacks. UX stops being a feature and becomes the strategy itself.
🔮 Prediction markets quietly gain relevance through partnerships and distribution, not hype. L2s don’t disappear — they evolve into app-specific rails. RWAs show real demand, but adoption stays slow due to pricing and structure.
🏦 For investors, the mindset changes too: fewer “one-token bets,” more indexes, sectors, and risk-managed strategies.
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Crypto soothsayer
👀 Casascius Bitcoin coins come alive after 13 years Over the weekend, two transactions of 1,000 BTC each were moved for the first time in over 13 years — coming from so-called Casascius Coins. Someone finally decided to stop holding paper wealth and become…
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💎 This is how, back in 2012, a vending machine sold Casascius coins for $7 each
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📊 Stablecoin flows: where liquidity is moving
💵 Over the past week, capital in stablecoins (USDT + USDC) across the top 15 blockchains shows a clear shift. Liquidity is actively migrating from Solana, Stable, and Tron toward TON and Ethereum.
Top inflows:
🟢 TON: +$509M
🟢 Ethereum: +$171M
Top outflows:
🔴 Solana: –$507M
🔴 Tron: –$334M
🔴 Base: –$191M
🔴 Hyperliquid: –$80M
💵 Over the past week, capital in stablecoins (USDT + USDC) across the top 15 blockchains shows a clear shift. Liquidity is actively migrating from Solana, Stable, and Tron toward TON and Ethereum.
Top inflows:
🟢 TON: +$509M
🟢 Ethereum: +$171M
Top outflows:
🔴 Solana: –$507M
🔴 Tron: –$334M
🔴 Base: –$191M
🔴 Hyperliquid: –$80M
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🛠 Bitcoin mining vs local residents in Texas
🐄 In Hood County, Texas, a long-running conflict between locals and mining company MARA has escalated into a lawsuit.
Residents complain about constant industrial noise, health issues, and falling property values, while the company insists its operations are legal and bring economic benefits to the region. 💵
An attempt by residents to gain city status and introduce strict noise limits failed in a local vote. 🤷
The case highlights the often overlooked social costs of rapid crypto mining expansion in the US — where economic growth and community impact are increasingly colliding.
🐄 In Hood County, Texas, a long-running conflict between locals and mining company MARA has escalated into a lawsuit.
Residents complain about constant industrial noise, health issues, and falling property values, while the company insists its operations are legal and bring economic benefits to the region. 💵
An attempt by residents to gain city status and introduce strict noise limits failed in a local vote. 🤷
The case highlights the often overlooked social costs of rapid crypto mining expansion in the US — where economic growth and community impact are increasingly colliding.
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🐋 CryptoQuant: whales stop selling BTC
🔎 According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin whales have largely stopped offloading coins, with selling pressure dropping to near-zero.
Large holders were actively taking profits during BTC’s decline from $124,000 to $84,000, but that phase now appears to be over. 💪
The market has shifted into a stabilization phase, suggesting reduced downside pressure and a more balanced supply–demand dynamic in the short term. 📊
🔎 According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin whales have largely stopped offloading coins, with selling pressure dropping to near-zero.
Large holders were actively taking profits during BTC’s decline from $124,000 to $84,000, but that phase now appears to be over. 💪
The market has shifted into a stabilization phase, suggesting reduced downside pressure and a more balanced supply–demand dynamic in the short term. 📊
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🐃 Déjà vu on the BTC chart?
🕵️♂️ Analyst Timothy Peterson compares the current Bitcoin price action to $16,000 at the end of 2022. According to his charts, the market is showing an almost identical pattern of December weakness.
If history repeats itself, a post–January 7 rally could follow — similar to what we saw in early 2023. The thesis is based on long-term seasonality and recurring market cycles. 🎄
Not a guarantee, but a familiar setup worth watching. 🧐
🕵️♂️ Analyst Timothy Peterson compares the current Bitcoin price action to $16,000 at the end of 2022. According to his charts, the market is showing an almost identical pattern of December weakness.
If history repeats itself, a post–January 7 rally could follow — similar to what we saw in early 2023. The thesis is based on long-term seasonality and recurring market cycles. 🎄
Not a guarantee, but a familiar setup worth watching. 🧐
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🎼 Bitcoin turns into music in Brazil 🇧🇷
An experimental orchestral project in Brazil has been approved to turn Bitcoin price data into live music. 🙀
🎶📈 During the concert in Brasília, an algorithm will track BTC price movements and technical data in real time, converting volatility into melody, rhythm, and harmony as the orchestra performs live.
The goal is to give the audience an audible experience of Bitcoin’s market behavior, blending art, math, economics, and physics.
An experimental orchestral project in Brazil has been approved to turn Bitcoin price data into live music. 🙀
🎶📈 During the concert in Brasília, an algorithm will track BTC price movements and technical data in real time, converting volatility into melody, rhythm, and harmony as the orchestra performs live.
The goal is to give the audience an audible experience of Bitcoin’s market behavior, blending art, math, economics, and physics.
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Altseason canceled? Not so fast 👀
📝 According to a market overview from market maker Wintermute, retail investors are rotating out of altcoins and back into BTC and ETH, while institutions have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum since summer.
Key points:
▪️ BTC dominance has been rising throughout the second half of the year
▪️ Altcoins are under pressure from large token unlocks
▪️ Capital is concentrating mainly in BTC and ETH
▪️ Holiday season + low liquidity = sideways market
Conclusion: An altseason is still possible, but not right now. First, BTC needs to reclaim higher levels and show strength. Short term: chop and liquidation-driven volatility. Mid term: institutions remain the main growth driver.🚀
📝 According to a market overview from market maker Wintermute, retail investors are rotating out of altcoins and back into BTC and ETH, while institutions have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum since summer.
Key points:
▪️ BTC dominance has been rising throughout the second half of the year
▪️ Altcoins are under pressure from large token unlocks
▪️ Capital is concentrating mainly in BTC and ETH
▪️ Holiday season + low liquidity = sideways market
Conclusion: An altseason is still possible, but not right now. First, BTC needs to reclaim higher levels and show strength. Short term: chop and liquidation-driven volatility. Mid term: institutions remain the main growth driver.🚀
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🐳 Reality check for VC valuations
🐃 During bull markets, venture investors often push crypto project valuations higher on hype and momentum. But when the market cools, these projects face a harsh reality check: public market caps fall far below their earlier private valuations. 👀
📉 The recent downturn clearly exposed the growing gap between VC estimates and real market prices. As liquidity dries up and speculation fades, only projects with real traction and sustainable economics manage to hold value — the rest are repriced by the market. 🤷
🐃 During bull markets, venture investors often push crypto project valuations higher on hype and momentum. But when the market cools, these projects face a harsh reality check: public market caps fall far below their earlier private valuations. 👀
📉 The recent downturn clearly exposed the growing gap between VC estimates and real market prices. As liquidity dries up and speculation fades, only projects with real traction and sustainable economics manage to hold value — the rest are repriced by the market. 🤷
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🚨 Trust Wallet browser extension hack — what we know so far
📝 Reports started spreading on X about users losing funds right after authorizing the Trust Wallet browser extension. Wallets were drained and funds sent to unknown addresses. Initial losses were estimated at ~$2M, but the damage has now exceeded $6M with hundreds of victims. 🙀
🔍 What happened
▪️The issue is linked to Trust Wallet browser extension v2.68.
▪️Malicious code was found sending wallet data to a fake domain (metrics-trustwallet․com), registered just days before the attack.
▪️The malware appears to trigger when importing a seed phrase, though other scenarios may also be affected.
📢 Official Trust Wallet statement
▪️Only browser extension v2.68 is affected.
▪️Users must disable v2.68 immediately and update to v2.69.
▪️Mobile app users and other versions are NOT affected.
▪️Update only via the official Chrome Web Store link.
🔥 CZ (he is owner TW) stated that Trust Wallet will compensate affected users.
📝 Reports started spreading on X about users losing funds right after authorizing the Trust Wallet browser extension. Wallets were drained and funds sent to unknown addresses. Initial losses were estimated at ~$2M, but the damage has now exceeded $6M with hundreds of victims. 🙀
🔍 What happened
▪️The issue is linked to Trust Wallet browser extension v2.68.
▪️Malicious code was found sending wallet data to a fake domain (metrics-trustwallet․com), registered just days before the attack.
▪️The malware appears to trigger when importing a seed phrase, though other scenarios may also be affected.
📢 Official Trust Wallet statement
▪️Only browser extension v2.68 is affected.
▪️Users must disable v2.68 immediately and update to v2.69.
▪️Mobile app users and other versions are NOT affected.
▪️Update only via the official Chrome Web Store link.
🔥 CZ (he is owner TW) stated that Trust Wallet will compensate affected users.
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