📊 Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle: broken or just ignored?
While many analysts are declaring that Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle is “dead,” price behavior suggests the opposite. 🧐
So far, BTC continues to move remarkably close to its historical cycle pattern, despite changing narratives, ETFs, and growing institutional participation. 😥
While many analysts are declaring that Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle is “dead,” price behavior suggests the opposite. 🧐
So far, BTC continues to move remarkably close to its historical cycle pattern, despite changing narratives, ETFs, and growing institutional participation. 😥
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🔮 Prediction markets as the new macro signal
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly acting as leading indicators for macroeconomic data. By continuously pricing market expectations, they often react faster than traditional models used by the Fed. 📊
According to Keyrock, Polymarket forecasts reach 90–95% accuracy, and by the Brier score, prediction markets significantly outperform traditional weather forecasts and sports betting models. 🧐
Hedge funds are already tapping into these platforms as a source of real-time market consensus and early signals of upcoming macro shifts — turning collective intelligence into a powerful analytical tool. 🔎💵
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly acting as leading indicators for macroeconomic data. By continuously pricing market expectations, they often react faster than traditional models used by the Fed. 📊
According to Keyrock, Polymarket forecasts reach 90–95% accuracy, and by the Brier score, prediction markets significantly outperform traditional weather forecasts and sports betting models. 🧐
Hedge funds are already tapping into these platforms as a source of real-time market consensus and early signals of upcoming macro shifts — turning collective intelligence into a powerful analytical tool. 🔎💵
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💸 Bitcoin ETFs see strongest inflows in a month
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow since November 11, pulling in over $450 million in a single day. This marks the biggest one-day net inflow over the past month. 🔥
The surge may signal that institutional investors are regaining confidence and starting to position for a potential continuation of the uptrend. 📈
After a period of cooling demand, ETF flows once again suggest renewed interest from large capital.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow since November 11, pulling in over $450 million in a single day. This marks the biggest one-day net inflow over the past month. 🔥
The surge may signal that institutional investors are regaining confidence and starting to position for a potential continuation of the uptrend. 📈
After a period of cooling demand, ETF flows once again suggest renewed interest from large capital.
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🧐 What stopped Bitcoin at the latest ATH?
Some traders believe Bitcoin faced unexpected resistance not in dollars, but at 100,000 Swiss francs (CHF) — one of the strongest fiat currencies in the world. 👀
The theory suggests that psychological levels in “hard” currencies may influence market behavior just like round numbers in USD. While it sounds intriguing, it’s more of a fun coincidence than a solid technical reason 😳
Interesting narrative — but likely not the real driver behind BTC’s pullback.
Some traders believe Bitcoin faced unexpected resistance not in dollars, but at 100,000 Swiss francs (CHF) — one of the strongest fiat currencies in the world. 👀
The theory suggests that psychological levels in “hard” currencies may influence market behavior just like round numbers in USD. While it sounds intriguing, it’s more of a fun coincidence than a solid technical reason 😳
Interesting narrative — but likely not the real driver behind BTC’s pullback.
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Crypto soothsayer
😳 Is Japan pressuring Bitcoin? According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan is considering raising its key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which would mark the highest level in nearly 30 years. 🏦🇯🇵 At first glance, this seems unrelated to crypto — but history…
😮💨 Bank of Japan raises rates — but carefully
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan has raised its key interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. However, there’s no shock to the system this time.
BOJ Governor emphasized a gradual and cautious approach to further monetary tightening and promised clear communication before any future moves. As a result, the carry trade remains stable, and markets avoided the chaos many feared. 💪
Bottom line: Japan did it as gently as possible — the expected collapse is postponed, for now 😇
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan has raised its key interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. However, there’s no shock to the system this time.
BOJ Governor emphasized a gradual and cautious approach to further monetary tightening and promised clear communication before any future moves. As a result, the carry trade remains stable, and markets avoided the chaos many feared. 💪
Bottom line: Japan did it as gently as possible — the expected collapse is postponed, for now 😇
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🐃 CryptoQuant: Bitcoin signals recovery
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is exiting a zone of strong oversold conditions and may be entering a recovery phase, based on the NVT Golden Cross indicator. 📊
Historically, this metric has signaled periods when selling pressure fades and market valuation begins to normalize, often preceding price stabilization or renewed upside momentum. While it doesn’t guarantee an immediate rally, the signal suggests that the recent correction may be losing strength and the market could be shifting back toward accumulation mode. 💰
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is exiting a zone of strong oversold conditions and may be entering a recovery phase, based on the NVT Golden Cross indicator. 📊
Historically, this metric has signaled periods when selling pressure fades and market valuation begins to normalize, often preceding price stabilization or renewed upside momentum. While it doesn’t guarantee an immediate rally, the signal suggests that the recent correction may be losing strength and the market could be shifting back toward accumulation mode. 💰
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From “Bitcoin is dead” to the biggest holder 👀
Exactly 12 years ago, Michael Saylor tweeted that Bitcoin’s “days are numbered,” effectively declaring it dead. ☠️
Fast forward to today — the company he leads, Strategy, now holds 671,268 BTC, making it the largest public Bitcoin holder in the world. 💰
A perfect reminder of how time, conviction, and a change of perspective can completely rewrite history in crypto.📝
Exactly 12 years ago, Michael Saylor tweeted that Bitcoin’s “days are numbered,” effectively declaring it dead. ☠️
Fast forward to today — the company he leads, Strategy, now holds 671,268 BTC, making it the largest public Bitcoin holder in the world. 💰
A perfect reminder of how time, conviction, and a change of perspective can completely rewrite history in crypto.📝
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🥷 One of the darkest chapters in early Bitcoin history
In June 2011, a Bitcointalk user known as Allinvain lost 25,000 BTC in a single transaction — worth about $500,000 at the time and over $2.2 billion today. 🙀
What happened:
▪️On June 13, 2011, 25,000 BTC were drained from his wallet in one move and never returned
▪️The coins were sent to a single address and later split and laundered
▪️The attack started with a compromised Slush Pool account, where payouts were redirected due to no 2FA
▪️The critical mistake: an unencrypted wallet.dat stored on a Windows PC with software from unknown sources
▪️Private keys were copied, and the funds were gone within seconds
Outcome:
▪️A total of 25,033 BTC were eventually dispersed
▪️Only 0.004 BTC remained on the original address
▪️The attacker was never identified
A brutal reminder of how unforgiving early Bitcoin security mistakes were.
In June 2011, a Bitcointalk user known as Allinvain lost 25,000 BTC in a single transaction — worth about $500,000 at the time and over $2.2 billion today. 🙀
What happened:
▪️On June 13, 2011, 25,000 BTC were drained from his wallet in one move and never returned
▪️The coins were sent to a single address and later split and laundered
▪️The attack started with a compromised Slush Pool account, where payouts were redirected due to no 2FA
▪️The critical mistake: an unencrypted wallet.dat stored on a Windows PC with software from unknown sources
▪️Private keys were copied, and the funds were gone within seconds
Outcome:
▪️A total of 25,033 BTC were eventually dispersed
▪️Only 0.004 BTC remained on the original address
▪️The attacker was never identified
A brutal reminder of how unforgiving early Bitcoin security mistakes were.
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📈 Bitcoin may end the year in the red 👀
Bitcoin is likely to close this year with a negative return. At the same time, it’s important to remember that BTC has never had two losing years in a row. 🤔
On the other hand, this was also a year of a new all-time high, and historically, years after ATH are often followed by deep corrections. 📉
How it plays out this time remains uncertain — many analysts are now discussing the idea of a broken 4-year cycle and a changing market structure. 😳
Bitcoin is likely to close this year with a negative return. At the same time, it’s important to remember that BTC has never had two losing years in a row. 🤔
On the other hand, this was also a year of a new all-time high, and historically, years after ATH are often followed by deep corrections. 📉
How it plays out this time remains uncertain — many analysts are now discussing the idea of a broken 4-year cycle and a changing market structure. 😳
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🔎 2025 TGE reality check
Most token launches in 2025 have turned out to be disappointing. According to recent data, 100 out of 118 TGEs (84.7%) are now trading below their initial valuations. 🧐
The main reasons cited by analysts are familiar: overinflated valuations at launch and a lack of real token utility. In many cases, hype faded quickly once early incentives ended, leaving little organic demand. 🤷
The takeaway is clear: the market is becoming less forgiving. Strong fundamentals and real use cases matter more than ever, while “launch first, figure it out later” tokenomics are no longer working. 🍔
Most token launches in 2025 have turned out to be disappointing. According to recent data, 100 out of 118 TGEs (84.7%) are now trading below their initial valuations. 🧐
The main reasons cited by analysts are familiar: overinflated valuations at launch and a lack of real token utility. In many cases, hype faded quickly once early incentives ended, leaving little organic demand. 🤷
The takeaway is clear: the market is becoming less forgiving. Strong fundamentals and real use cases matter more than ever, while “launch first, figure it out later” tokenomics are no longer working. 🍔
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😒 Crypto loses the race in 2025
So far, traditional assets are clearly outperforming crypto this year.
Annual returns:
• Silver: +130%
• Gold: +65%
• Copper: +35%
• Nasdaq: +20%
• S&P 500: +16%
• Russell 2000: +13%
Meanwhile, crypto is lagging:
• BTC: -6%
• ETH: -12%
• Altcoins: -42%
In 2025, capital has flowed back into commodities and equities, while the crypto market struggles with drawdowns and weak risk appetite. A clear reminder that crypto doesn’t always win every cycle. 🤷
So far, traditional assets are clearly outperforming crypto this year.
Annual returns:
• Silver: +130%
• Gold: +65%
• Copper: +35%
• Nasdaq: +20%
• S&P 500: +16%
• Russell 2000: +13%
Meanwhile, crypto is lagging:
• BTC: -6%
• ETH: -12%
• Altcoins: -42%
In 2025, capital has flowed back into commodities and equities, while the crypto market struggles with drawdowns and weak risk appetite. A clear reminder that crypto doesn’t always win every cycle. 🤷
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📉 Bitcoin fell short of big players’ forecasts
Wu Blockchain reviewed major Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 and compared them with reality. After the 2024 halving, the launch of US crypto ETFs, and rising institutional interest, many large firms expected a powerful rally, modeling BTC in the $200k–$250k range. 🚀
In practice, Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October at $126k, then corrected by around 30%, never reaching the projected targets. 🤷
Key expectations vs reality:
• KuCoin Research: up to $250k on ETF and institutional demand
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine): $250k target
• Matrixport: $160k, calling 2025 a breakout year
• Bitwise: new ATH above $200k
• VanEck: peak near $180k, then correction
• Galaxy Research: $150k–$185k by year end
None of these scenarios fully played out, highlighting once again how difficult long-term BTC forecasting remains — even for the biggest institutions.
Wu Blockchain reviewed major Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 and compared them with reality. After the 2024 halving, the launch of US crypto ETFs, and rising institutional interest, many large firms expected a powerful rally, modeling BTC in the $200k–$250k range. 🚀
In practice, Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October at $126k, then corrected by around 30%, never reaching the projected targets. 🤷
Key expectations vs reality:
• KuCoin Research: up to $250k on ETF and institutional demand
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine): $250k target
• Matrixport: $160k, calling 2025 a breakout year
• Bitwise: new ATH above $200k
• VanEck: peak near $180k, then correction
• Galaxy Research: $150k–$185k by year end
None of these scenarios fully played out, highlighting once again how difficult long-term BTC forecasting remains — even for the biggest institutions.
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📉 Top altcoins: 2025 recap
Not exactly a year to celebrate for most altcoins.
👉 A real “altseason” happened only for:
• Zcash: +613%
• Monero: +125%
Everything else disappointed. Even Dogecoin, once hyped by Elon Musk, ended the year down –61% 😭
The takeaway: in 2025, privacy coins outperformed, while the majority of top alts failed to deliver any meaningful gains.
Not exactly a year to celebrate for most altcoins.
👉 A real “altseason” happened only for:
• Zcash: +613%
• Monero: +125%
Everything else disappointed. Even Dogecoin, once hyped by Elon Musk, ended the year down –61% 😭
The takeaway: in 2025, privacy coins outperformed, while the majority of top alts failed to deliver any meaningful gains.
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🥷 Hackers vs Investors: the harsh crypto reality
📊 The data paints a clear picture: hackers are far more consistent than investors and continue to drain money from the market as long as capital keeps flowing in.
🛍 Stolen funds vs total investments:
• 2021 — 8%
• 2022 — 10%
• 2023 — 25%
• 2024 — 20%
• 2025 — 10%
Despite growing infrastructure and regulations, crypto still resembles the Wild West. Scammers are often hard to track down, and in most cases, there’s simply no one to claim compensation from. 👀
📊 The data paints a clear picture: hackers are far more consistent than investors and continue to drain money from the market as long as capital keeps flowing in.
🛍 Stolen funds vs total investments:
• 2021 — 8%
• 2022 — 10%
• 2023 — 25%
• 2024 — 20%
• 2025 — 10%
Despite growing infrastructure and regulations, crypto still resembles the Wild West. Scammers are often hard to track down, and in most cases, there’s simply no one to claim compensation from. 👀
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📉 Tom Lee warns of a major correction in H1 2026
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee now expects a significant market correction in the first half of 2026, according to his latest client note. 🧐
🎯 Target ranges during the correction:
• BTC: $60k–65k
• ETH: $1,800–2,000
• SOL: $50–75
This marks a sharp shift in tone. Just recently, Lee called ETH “deeply undervalued” at $3k and was targeting $15k by the end of 2025. That scenario now appears effectively off the table.
The takeaway: even the most bullish strategists are starting to price in serious downside risk. 😥
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee now expects a significant market correction in the first half of 2026, according to his latest client note. 🧐
🎯 Target ranges during the correction:
• BTC: $60k–65k
• ETH: $1,800–2,000
• SOL: $50–75
This marks a sharp shift in tone. Just recently, Lee called ETH “deeply undervalued” at $3k and was targeting $15k by the end of 2025. That scenario now appears effectively off the table.
The takeaway: even the most bullish strategists are starting to price in serious downside risk. 😥
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🔮 Vitalik Buterin on prediction markets vs social media
He says prediction markets are a more rational alternative to social media, especially when discussing controversial or emotional topics. 👀
On social platforms, people can spread panic or extreme opinions with zero responsibility. Media often amplify this effect with clickbait headlines. Prediction markets work differently: every opinion has a financial cost. If your take is wrong or careless, you lose money. 🤷💵
In short, markets force accountability — and that makes discussions more grounded in reality.
He says prediction markets are a more rational alternative to social media, especially when discussing controversial or emotional topics. 👀
On social platforms, people can spread panic or extreme opinions with zero responsibility. Media often amplify this effect with clickbait headlines. Prediction markets work differently: every opinion has a financial cost. If your take is wrong or careless, you lose money. 🤷💵
In short, markets force accountability — and that makes discussions more grounded in reality.
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🇬🇭 Ghana officially legalizes crypto
🗒 Ghana’s parliament has passed a law that brings crypto into the legal and regulated space. The new bill allows the licensing of crypto platforms and gives the central bank oversight over the market.
📊Around 3 million Ghanaians (17% of adults) already use crypto, so authorities decided it’s better to regulate than ignore it. The goal is more transparency, lower risks for the local currency, and clearer rules for businesses.
Crypto activity in Ghana hit $3B in transactions over the past year — a strong signal that adoption is already here, now with legal backing. 💪
🗒 Ghana’s parliament has passed a law that brings crypto into the legal and regulated space. The new bill allows the licensing of crypto platforms and gives the central bank oversight over the market.
📊Around 3 million Ghanaians (17% of adults) already use crypto, so authorities decided it’s better to regulate than ignore it. The goal is more transparency, lower risks for the local currency, and clearer rules for businesses.
Crypto activity in Ghana hit $3B in transactions over the past year — a strong signal that adoption is already here, now with legal backing. 💪
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🐂 Gold hits a new ATH — will BTC follow?
Historically, when gold enters a strong uptrend and prints new all-time highs, Bitcoin tends to follow with a delay. This pattern has appeared in multiple past cycles. 👀
We’re seeing a similar setup now: gold is already at record levels, while BTC is still moving sideways and not rushing higher. If history rhymes, the next step could be liquidity gradually rotating from precious metals into the crypto market. 🤔
Watching closely for that shift 📤
Historically, when gold enters a strong uptrend and prints new all-time highs, Bitcoin tends to follow with a delay. This pattern has appeared in multiple past cycles. 👀
We’re seeing a similar setup now: gold is already at record levels, while BTC is still moving sideways and not rushing higher. If history rhymes, the next step could be liquidity gradually rotating from precious metals into the crypto market. 🤔
Watching closely for that shift 📤
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😥 Altcoins hit extreme oversold levels
📉 Altcoins have dropped to oversold conditions last seen during the COVID crash. Across the market, prices are sitting near multi-year lows, making many traders ask the same question: how much lower can they really go? 🤔
Historically, such extreme pessimism and compression often appear near cycle bottoms, though timing remains uncertain. For now, the data highlights just how washed out sentiment in altcoins has become. 👀
📉 Altcoins have dropped to oversold conditions last seen during the COVID crash. Across the market, prices are sitting near multi-year lows, making many traders ask the same question: how much lower can they really go? 🤔
Historically, such extreme pessimism and compression often appear near cycle bottoms, though timing remains uncertain. For now, the data highlights just how washed out sentiment in altcoins has become. 👀
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