Bitcoin must hold the $94K level!
๐ CryptoQuantโs CEO notes that for investors who bought BTC 6โ12 months ago, the realized cost basis is around $94,000.
๐ซฃ As long as this level holds, itโs too early to call a bear market.
But looking at current price actionโฆ it might be the right time to start thinking about what to do if growth doesnโt return ๐ง
๐ CryptoQuantโs CEO notes that for investors who bought BTC 6โ12 months ago, the realized cost basis is around $94,000.
๐ซฃ As long as this level holds, itโs too early to call a bear market.
But looking at current price actionโฆ it might be the right time to start thinking about what to do if growth doesnโt return ๐ง
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๐ฑ Friday opens with extreme fear โ and another $1B in liquidations
Crypto markets woke up in chaos: over $1,000,000,000 in positions were liquidated overnight as BTC dipped below $97K. ๐
We havenโt seen these prices since May 2025, and the sentiment has flipped back to extreme fear. ๐คท
Crypto markets woke up in chaos: over $1,000,000,000 in positions were liquidated overnight as BTC dipped below $97K. ๐
We havenโt seen these prices since May 2025, and the sentiment has flipped back to extreme fear. ๐คท
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๐ Wintermute drops a fresh report on BTCโNasdaq dynamics
Wintermute released a new analysis showing that Bitcoin still maintains a strong correlation (~0.8) with the Nasdaq-100. But despite this close link, BTC doesnโt benefit from stock market rallies โ it mostly moves in sync when things go bad. ๐คท
๐ Analysts also highlight a negative asymmetry: Bitcoin reacts to downturns but doesnโt share the upside. Historically, this pattern tends to appear not at market tops, but much closer to the bottom.
Could this mean weโre nearing a reversal point? ๐
Wintermute released a new analysis showing that Bitcoin still maintains a strong correlation (~0.8) with the Nasdaq-100. But despite this close link, BTC doesnโt benefit from stock market rallies โ it mostly moves in sync when things go bad. ๐คท
๐ Analysts also highlight a negative asymmetry: Bitcoin reacts to downturns but doesnโt share the upside. Historically, this pattern tends to appear not at market tops, but much closer to the bottom.
Could this mean weโre nearing a reversal point? ๐
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๐ If you still believe in the classic 4-year cycleโฆ
According to the old-school 4-year cycle theory (which many analysts now consider outdated and irrelevant), the bull market might already be over. This model suggests that after each halving the market follows a predictable pattern โ and right now weโd supposedly be entering a prolonged correction phase.
However, many analysts argue that todayโs market is driven by macro factors, institutional flows, and geopolitics, making the 4-year cycle far less reliable.
But if you stick to the old rules, it looks like the bull market may have already said its goodbyes. ๐ฌ
According to the old-school 4-year cycle theory (which many analysts now consider outdated and irrelevant), the bull market might already be over. This model suggests that after each halving the market follows a predictable pattern โ and right now weโd supposedly be entering a prolonged correction phase.
However, many analysts argue that todayโs market is driven by macro factors, institutional flows, and geopolitics, making the 4-year cycle far less reliable.
But if you stick to the old rules, it looks like the bull market may have already said its goodbyes. ๐ฌ
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๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Crypto Twitter goes full conspiracy mode over CZโs posts
X is buzzing with users trying to decode hidden signals in posts by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao โ many are convinced that heโs hinting at upcoming $BTC movements. ๐
๐ March: BTC fell to $84K, CZ posted: โ114,000 words.โ A month later Bitcoin pumped past $114K and hit new ATHs. ๐
๐ Nov 8: At $103K, he wrote: โ97,000 words, 300 pages.โ Nov 13โ14: BTC dropped to $97K. ๐
Now users are obsessing over whether these โword countsโ are secret BTC price hints โ and especially what โ300โ could mean ๐ค
X is buzzing with users trying to decode hidden signals in posts by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao โ many are convinced that heโs hinting at upcoming $BTC movements. ๐
๐ March: BTC fell to $84K, CZ posted: โ114,000 words.โ A month later Bitcoin pumped past $114K and hit new ATHs. ๐
๐ Nov 8: At $103K, he wrote: โ97,000 words, 300 pages.โ Nov 13โ14: BTC dropped to $97K. ๐
Now users are obsessing over whether these โword countsโ are secret BTC price hints โ and especially what โ300โ could mean ๐ค
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Crypto soothsayer
๐ Steak โn Shake goes full Bitcoin! The fast-food chain has announced the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve โ all BTC payments will now go straight into it ๐ ๐ฐ On top of that, for the next 12 months, the company will donate 210 satoshis from everyโฆ
๐ Steak โn Shake credits Bitcoiners as stores hit record sales
Steak โn Shake โ the fast-food chain that launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, introduced a Bitcoin-themed burger, and started accepting BTC payments โ reported its strongest quarterly same-store sales among its peers.
They publicly thanked the Bitcoin community, saying:
Their BTC strategy isnโt just marketing: itโs saving them money (processing fees dropped ~50%) and driving real business growth. ๐
Steak โn Shake โ the fast-food chain that launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, introduced a Bitcoin-themed burger, and started accepting BTC payments โ reported its strongest quarterly same-store sales among its peers.
They publicly thanked the Bitcoin community, saying:
We thank Bitcoiners for helping us achieve the best same-store sales performance in our category! ๐ And, believe it or not, this quarter is registering an even higher growth rate! ๐
Their BTC strategy isnโt just marketing: itโs saving them money (processing fees dropped ~50%) and driving real business growth. ๐
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Conspiracy theories are back โ some claim BTC is being pushed down to shake out Michael Saylor ๐ง
Last night Bitcoin dipped to $93k, sparking a wave of speculation on X that the price is being deliberately driven lower to liquidate Strategyโs positions.
๐ฐThe company used BTC as collateral for convertible debt, and if the price falls below a certain LTV threshold, it may be required to add collateral or even sell some of its bitcoin.
โ ๏ธ Estimated risk level: ~$75,000
But panic quickly mixed with intrigue:
Michael Saylor posted just two words โ โBig weekโ โ and that was enough to set off rumors. Many believe Strategy may have bought the dip and is preparing a major announcement. ๐
The market is stressed, and Saylor is once again fueling the suspense.
Last night Bitcoin dipped to $93k, sparking a wave of speculation on X that the price is being deliberately driven lower to liquidate Strategyโs positions.
๐ฐThe company used BTC as collateral for convertible debt, and if the price falls below a certain LTV threshold, it may be required to add collateral or even sell some of its bitcoin.
โ ๏ธ Estimated risk level: ~$75,000
But panic quickly mixed with intrigue:
Michael Saylor posted just two words โ โBig weekโ โ and that was enough to set off rumors. Many believe Strategy may have bought the dip and is preparing a major announcement. ๐
The market is stressed, and Saylor is once again fueling the suspense.
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๐ A long-dormant Casascius holder from 2012 just woke up and moved coins
An ancient Bitcoin wallet linked to a physical Casascius coin suddenly became active after more than a decade. The holder transferred 2 BTC (~$194k) to Coinbase. ๐ณ
๐ช These are classic physical bitcoins from the early era, containing private keys hidden under a hologram โ today theyโre extremely rare and mostly collectorsโ items.
๐ Two related wallets were identified, both untouched since 2012, making this move especially notable for on-chain analysts watching old supply come back to life.
An ancient Bitcoin wallet linked to a physical Casascius coin suddenly became active after more than a decade. The holder transferred 2 BTC (~$194k) to Coinbase. ๐ณ
๐ช These are classic physical bitcoins from the early era, containing private keys hidden under a hologram โ today theyโre extremely rare and mostly collectorsโ items.
๐ Two related wallets were identified, both untouched since 2012, making this move especially notable for on-chain analysts watching old supply come back to life.
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๐คก Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT has named a Cardano holder the โclown of the monthโ after they accidentally lost $6M in a disastrous swap.
The user exchanged 14.4M ADA ($6.9M) for just 847K USDA, Cardanoโs dollar stablecoin โ all because of extremely low liquidity in the pool, which caused a massive temporary price spike during the swap. ๐
Adding to the drama: the holder had kept their ADA untouched for five years before making this single, catastrophic move.๐
The user exchanged 14.4M ADA ($6.9M) for just 847K USDA, Cardanoโs dollar stablecoin โ all because of extremely low liquidity in the pool, which caused a massive temporary price spike during the swap. ๐
Adding to the drama: the holder had kept their ADA untouched for five years before making this single, catastrophic move.๐
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Andrew Tate: โAll BTC holders will end up in jail!โ ๐
Andrew Tate posted that the only way to protect yourself now is to migrate early to private networks and ZK technologies. ๐
Tate โ a former kickboxer and outspoken Bitcoin bull โ previously said he would abandon fiat entirely and invest hundreds of millions of dollars into BTC.
So thatโs whoโs buying up all the ZCash on the market ๐
Andrew Tate posted that the only way to protect yourself now is to migrate early to private networks and ZK technologies. ๐
Tate โ a former kickboxer and outspoken Bitcoin bull โ previously said he would abandon fiat entirely and invest hundreds of millions of dollars into BTC.
So thatโs whoโs buying up all the ZCash on the market ๐
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๐ Bernstein: Bitcoinโs drop doesnโt mean the cycle is over
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Analysts at say Bitcoinโs 25% decline from the October peak is not the start of a new bear market but a temporary correction. The market, they argue, isnโt reacting to weakening fundamentals โ itโs reacting to fear of a repeat of the classic 4-year cycle that previously ended with sharp sell-offs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. ๐
Despite heavy selling by long-term holders, inflows into spot ETFs and corporate reserves continue to offset the pressure:
โ $34B flowed into spot ETFs
โ Institutional ownership in BTC ETFs grew from 20% to 28% since late 2024
โ Total AUM stands at $125B, even after a $3B outflow in recent weeks
Analysts say this shows a more resilient market structure and reduces the risk of deeper declines.
Among long-term growth drivers, Bernstein highlights:
โ Pro-crypto policy support from the Trump administration
โ Expected progress on reg
โ Loosening U.S. monetary policy
The reportโs authors remain long on several crypto assets.
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Analysts at say Bitcoinโs 25% decline from the October peak is not the start of a new bear market but a temporary correction. The market, they argue, isnโt reacting to weakening fundamentals โ itโs reacting to fear of a repeat of the classic 4-year cycle that previously ended with sharp sell-offs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. ๐
Despite heavy selling by long-term holders, inflows into spot ETFs and corporate reserves continue to offset the pressure:
โ $34B flowed into spot ETFs
โ Institutional ownership in BTC ETFs grew from 20% to 28% since late 2024
โ Total AUM stands at $125B, even after a $3B outflow in recent weeks
Analysts say this shows a more resilient market structure and reduces the risk of deeper declines.
Among long-term growth drivers, Bernstein highlights:
โ Pro-crypto policy support from the Trump administration
โ Expected progress on reg
โ Loosening U.S. monetary policy
The reportโs authors remain long on several crypto assets.
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๐ Positive vibes from the CryptoQuant CEO
Ki Young Ju believes the current correction is simply a rotation between long-term holders. Old holders are selling BTC to traders who โ surprisingly โ are also likely to hold it long term. ๐ฐ๐ณ
๐ In his view, the classic cycle theory doesnโt work as long as funds and companies continue injecting liquidity into the market.
Soโฆ does this mean weโre still in a bull market? ๐ค
Ki Young Ju believes the current correction is simply a rotation between long-term holders. Old holders are selling BTC to traders who โ surprisingly โ are also likely to hold it long term. ๐ฐ๐ณ
๐ In his view, the classic cycle theory doesnโt work as long as funds and companies continue injecting liquidity into the market.
Soโฆ does this mean weโre still in a bull market? ๐ค
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๐ Bitcoin to $220K in 45 days?
๐ง Yang Hun Kim โ who claims to have the highest IQ in the world โ predicts that BTC will reach $220,000 within the next 45 days.
He also pledged to donate 100% of his Bitcoin profits to charity, planning to build churches for Jesus Christ in every nation:
"For with God nothing shall be impossible." (Luke 1:37) ๐
๐ง Yang Hun Kim โ who claims to have the highest IQ in the world โ predicts that BTC will reach $220,000 within the next 45 days.
He also pledged to donate 100% of his Bitcoin profits to charity, planning to build churches for Jesus Christ in every nation:
"For with God nothing shall be impossible." (Luke 1:37) ๐
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Crypto soothsayer
Conspiracy theories are back โ some claim BTC is being pushed down to shake out Michael Saylor ๐ง Last night Bitcoin dipped to $93k, sparking a wave of speculation on X that the price is being deliberately driven lower to liquidate Strategyโs positions. ๐ฐTheโฆ
๐ฅ Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) keeps buying BTC โ and a lot of it
Strategy reported purchasing 8,178 BTC between Nov 10โ16 for $835.6M, with an average price of $102,171. ๐ฐ
As of Nov 16, the company holds 649,870 BTC โ about 3% of the entire supply.
Since 2020, Strategy has spent $48.37B on Bitcoin at an average of $74,433 per coin.
Michael Saylor dismissed rumors of BTC selling โ sparked by the company moving funds to new wallets โ saying they were false and that Strategy was actually buying coins every single day last week.
Strategy reported purchasing 8,178 BTC between Nov 10โ16 for $835.6M, with an average price of $102,171. ๐ฐ
As of Nov 16, the company holds 649,870 BTC โ about 3% of the entire supply.
Since 2020, Strategy has spent $48.37B on Bitcoin at an average of $74,433 per coin.
Michael Saylor dismissed rumors of BTC selling โ sparked by the company moving funds to new wallets โ saying they were false and that Strategy was actually buying coins every single day last week.
๐7
๐จ Extreme fear on the market โ Fear & Greed Index drops to 11
๐Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, triggering full-blown panic across the market.
๐ธ๐ป But while retail is trembling, El Salvador is buying the dip again: the government purchased 1,090 BTC (~$100M) in addition to its ongoing daily 1 BTC buys.
When fear hits 11, some run โ others accumulate. ๐
๐Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, triggering full-blown panic across the market.
๐ธ๐ป But while retail is trembling, El Salvador is buying the dip again: the government purchased 1,090 BTC (~$100M) in addition to its ongoing daily 1 BTC buys.
When fear hits 11, some run โ others accumulate. ๐
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๐ฝ Donald Trump stated that $2,000 tariff dividends will be sent to Americans by mid-2026. ๐
Will the bear market last another six months? ๐
Will the bear market last another six months? ๐
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CryptoQuantโs Head of Research, Julio Moreno, believes weโre already in a bear market and warns traders to stay cautious about signals hinting at the end of the correction. ๐ฅ
Interestingly, his view sharply contrasts with that of CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who argues that the current dip is just a rotation among long-term BTC holders, not the start of a new bearish cycle. ๐ง
Two experts โ two opposite outlooks.
Which one do you believe? ๐
Interestingly, his view sharply contrasts with that of CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who argues that the current dip is just a rotation among long-term BTC holders, not the start of a new bearish cycle. ๐ง
Two experts โ two opposite outlooks.
Which one do you believe? ๐
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โ๏ธ 95% of All Bitcoin Has Been Mined
Miners have officially extracted 19.95M BTC โ thatโs 95% of the total 21M supply set by Satoshi. ๐ฐ
After the April 2024 halving, block rewards dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance from 900 โ 450 BTC. ๐
Even though almost all coins are already in circulation, the remaining 5% will take over a century to mine โ until 2140. ๐
Bitcoin is gradually shifting to a fee-driven economy, where user transaction fees help maintain hash rate and network security. Mining difficulty meanwhile sits at a record 152.27T. ๐จโ๐ป
Miners have officially extracted 19.95M BTC โ thatโs 95% of the total 21M supply set by Satoshi. ๐ฐ
After the April 2024 halving, block rewards dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance from 900 โ 450 BTC. ๐
Even though almost all coins are already in circulation, the remaining 5% will take over a century to mine โ until 2140. ๐
Bitcoin is gradually shifting to a fee-driven economy, where user transaction fees help maintain hash rate and network security. Mining difficulty meanwhile sits at a record 152.27T. ๐จโ๐ป
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