Crypto Penetration blog ๐Ÿ”ฉ
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My name is @Ilya_ii. I research the penetration of cryptocurrencies in the life of different countries.
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Created in collaboration with Ton Whales - crypto regulation database https://cryptopenetration.com/
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ New SEC chair

๐Ÿฆ… Donald Trump has nominated crypto lobbyist Paul Atkins as new SEC chair. Paul is leader of Token Alliance and was already SEC chair in 2002-2008.

๐Ÿ“ˆ His nomination may push BTC price above $100,000 this week.
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Bitcoin $103,000
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Ethereum $4,000. Alt season in progress. ๐Ÿ˜Œ๐Ÿ˜Œ
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The EU implements MiCA and changes tax rates

๐Ÿ–จ EU member states have until the end of 2024 to implement MiCA requirements (adopt the necessary laws) to start the re-registration procedure of operating VASPs to the CASP regime (effective in 2025). So, summarising the year's results on regulation is in full swing here. And by the way, not all countries had time to pass all the necessary laws in 2024.

๐Ÿ›‚ MiCA will certainly complicate the life of crypto businesses in Europe, as well as users - with transactions in USDT and increased AML requirements. But it will create a legal framework and increase the level of investor protection.

๐Ÿชจ There is another much bigger problem for EU users than MiCA: tax increases. Unfortunately, many Western European countries that have promoted themselves as cryptohubs (e.g. France, Netherlands) are raising tax requirements. And these plans have only now come to light.

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France has not only increased capital tax requirements for those who leave the country, but is also going to oblige holders to pay tax on unrealised profits at the end of the year. That is, cryptocurrency owners will owe the state for earned profits, regardless of whether they realise those profits (sell the asset) or not. Japan imposed a similar tax earlier, but then cancelled this requirement, as it was considered ineffective. And unfortunately, France may not be the last country to introduce such a tax.

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด On the contrary, Romania has announced crypto tax amnesty. Until mid-2025, the tax rate for individuals from the sale of cryptocurrencies will be 0%. Take the hint.

๐Ÿ“ฐ You can read more about how requirements for crypto business in Europe will increase in my new article on Hackernoon.
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๐Ÿ“ˆ The first wave of the bull cycle

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ While more countries are adopting crypto regulation, the market is going through a full-fledged bull cycle after Donald Trump's victory, although altcoins are getting less liquidity than during the previous bull cycles of 2017 and 2021. Here's a look at some of the coins in the Coinmarketcap top 50, from 5 November to highs in early December, following Trump's appointment of the new SEC head, Paul Atkins:

๐Ÿ”ทXRP from $0.50 to $2.90
๐Ÿ”ทALGO from $0.10 to $0.50
๐Ÿ”ทBGB from $1.10 to $2.78
๐Ÿ”ทUNI from $6.70 to $18.64
๐Ÿ”ทDOGE from $0.15 to $0.46
๐Ÿ”ทATOM from $3.90 to $10.42
๐Ÿ”ทARB from $0.47 to $1.10
๐Ÿ”ทADA from $0.59 to $1.20
๐Ÿ”ทSUI from $1.85 to $4.32
๐Ÿ”ทDOT from $3.47 to $10.70
๐Ÿ”ทTON from $4.67 to $7.16
๐Ÿ”ทAVAX from $22 to $54
๐Ÿ”ทCRO from $0.07 to $0.21
๐Ÿ”ทPOL from $0.29 to $0.70
๐Ÿ”ทAPTOS from $8.00 to $14.29
๐Ÿ”ทNEAR from $3.60 to $8.00

โฏ๏ธ That is, almost no coin from TOP 50 has grown by more than 300% and the range is typically about 50-200%. Volatility in the crypto market is decreasing, making it more and more similar to other financial markets for this indicator. This is a sign of crypto institutionalisation.

๐Ÿ‘ However, if we look at the figures for Bitcoin ETFs, liquidity continues to arrive there - over $3bn since 29 November and inflows exceeded outflows on every trading day. Nevertheless, the alt season has already largely taken place. It is possible that we are still waiting for a second bull market in early 2025, but those who are in positions now should be careful and distribute risks properly. Even if the second wave of the bull market awaits us, we should take into account the high probability of correction.
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EU regulation crypto updates

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Against the backdrop of growing requirements for crypto-business in Europe, the Czech Republic offers the opposite, exempting long-term holders from capital taxes. To take advantage of the tax exemption you need to hold crypto for 3 years. I think this is good motivation, especially as the benefit applies retroactively, to those who have already held for more than three years (though in Germany this period is 1 year).

โฃ๏ธ The requirements for opening bank accounts for companies in the Republic will also be simplified. Czech MP Jan Skopecek noted that โ€œif crypto businesses are not provided with tax benefits, they may relocate to another countryโ€.

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia now allows crypto companies to fund their capital directly in crypto. This Baltic country had no regulation until 2024, but adopted both new tax rules and a law on crypto assets this year. Financial technologies are quite developed here, but usually only back-offices of European companies are located in Latvia, due to complex compliance procedures.

โš ๏ธ Coinbase removes access to USDT, DAI and other stablecoins for all EU users. Only USDC and EURC will remain. Restricting Europeans' access to USDT and increasing requirements for obtaining CASP licenses are among the main drawbacks of MiCA.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The USA forms legal trends in crypto

๐Ÿค Yesterday, Donald Trump met Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek to discuss several topics, including crypto regulation. At the same moment, Crypto.com dropped its lawsuit against the SEC, perhaps because after the appointment of a new head of the agency, the parties will come to an agreement. Several other events in the US are creating a positive agenda for cryptocurrency prices and are related to regulation:

๐Ÿ“ Texasโ€™ legislators will discuss the purchase of BTC as a reserve asset under an initiative led by Texas State Rep, Giovanni Capriglione.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Donald Trump joined the Blockchain Association meeting and promised to support the growth of the blockchain industry in the US.

๐Ÿช Senator Cynthia Lummis has claimed, that โ€œAmerica must win the Bitcoin Raceโ€, as it did with the Space Race. The new elected head of Congress's House Financial Services Committee, French Hill is also oriented pro-crypto. And this trend is already spreading to the more conservative Asia and Europe:

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Sarah Knafo has created a Bitcoin Reserve initiative for the European Parliament.

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต In Thailand, ex-Prime Minister and influential politician Thaksin Shinawatra has suggested legalizing crypto payments in stablecoins and BTC. Also, consultations about the possible creation of a Bitcoin Reserve have started in Japan.

๐Ÿ“ˆ The US is setting a global trend towards the full legalization of cryptocurrencies and their use by governments as a reserve asset!
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โ˜ ๏ธThe deputy died defending mining in Caucasus

๐Ÿ”ซ During a discussion of a law on mining in the Parliament of Abkhazia, a shooting occurred. One deputy was injured and another killed. Abkhazia is an unrecognized territory within Georgia. Most countries do not recognize it as an independent state.

โ˜ข๏ธ At the moment, Abkhazia is experiencing an energy and political crisis. Local mining farms are one of the territory's profitable businesses, but they consume up to 50% of all electrical power generated. Most local citizens support a mining ban, which received preliminary approval on 16th of December.

๐Ÿ˜ต Adgur Kharaziya (a mining ban supporter) wounded Can Quarcia, who called him a populist, and killed Vakhtang Hollandzia.
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๐Ÿ“‰ Market correction

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The market reacted poorly to the latest Fed briefing on December 18, despite the rate cut of 0.25%. It's all about the revised forecasts for the next year: the Fed will take a break and stop cutting the rate. These are the expectations of the market and analysts.

๐Ÿ”ป As a result, BTC prices fell below $95,000. Ethereum lost almost all of its growth and now costs $3,200. The prices of most coins from the TOP-100 fell by 15-20%. The outflow of funds from the Bitcoin ETF on the next trading day after the Fed meeting was $671 million.

๐Ÿ“ However, one should not draw far-reaching conclusions - after all, the Fed's policy may change soon after Trump takes office as president. Also, in 2025, the United States (and other countries) will probably adopt Bitcoin as a reserve fund. All this can have a positive effect on the market.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tornado Cash founder demands all charges be dropped

๐Ÿ™… Tornado Cash founder Roman Storm is demanding that all charges against him be dropped. His legal team is relying on a previous appeals court ruling that OFAC's sanctions against the mixer were illegal. You can read our article about the Tornado Cash case and the appeals court ruling.

๐Ÿ—ฝ Storm filed the motion in the Manhattan District Court on 18 December. He argues that since the appeals court ruled in the previous case that the Tornado Cash smart contract is unchangeable and cannot be altered by the developers in any way, the current case (on complicity in money laundering) has no basis.

โœŠ Storm also relies on the opinion of Joseph Van Loon, an expert from his team, that the developers of Tornado Cash cannot control how and by whom their protocol is used. In general, demanding a full acquittal is a bold maneuver that can at least help Storm and his team reach a settlement. As the saying goes โ€˜Be realistic, demand the impossible!โ€™
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๐Ÿฆ’Africa is gradually legalizing cryptocurrencies

๐ŸŒ This year, not only Europe and the United States have worked on regulating cryptocurrencies. There are positive trends in this direction in Africa as well:

๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ So far, the most developed of the major African economies in this regard is South Africa. It is not difficult to obtain a license there, and all the rights and opportunities of users (including crypto payments) are spelled out in legislation. More than 200 licenses have already been issued.

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ New countries have defined the concept of cryptocurrency in law: the Seychelles and Tanzania

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Even more countries in the region are planning to introduce regulation for crypto exchange next year: Morocco, Ghana, Rwanda (!) and possibly Ethiopia.

๐Ÿš€ The general trend towards the legalization of cryptocurrencies is also clearly visible in Africa. However, in Kenya and Nigeria, crypto businesses cannot operate normally yet.

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Together with crypto enthusiast Eric Maina from Kenya, we have prepared an article on this topic to describe the African crypto regulation landscape.
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๐Ÿ’Ž New Fintech Solution from Altery

๐Ÿ’ณ Altery has integrated TON and USDT top-up into its payment card. The card is available in European Union and CIS countries.

๐Ÿ’ธ Card users may provide payments in fiat including USD, EUR or GBP. It also supports direct transfers of fiat currencies to bank accounts.
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โœˆ๏ธ 2024 Highlights: Record Telegram profit as a basis for TON ecosystem growth

๐ŸŒก Hello, subscribers. I had three days off with a cold. Now Iโ€™m recovering, just like crypto prices, and I want to sum up the year for you.

๐Ÿค‘ You probably know that this year was the first in which Telegram made a profit. Pavel Durov claimed, that total Telegram profit exceeded $1 billion and our lovely messenger already has 12 million premium subscribers.

๐Ÿ’ช Durov noted that Telegram has โ€œ500 million in cash reserves, not including crypto assetsโ€. However, Telegram will definitely continue to develop its monetization. Developing a partnership with TON has powerful potential to increase a company's profitability.

๐Ÿ”‹ So if Telegram is doing well, then you need not stress about the TON ecosystem - which will only increase the number of users and, among other things, invest in developing projects and infrastructure for one of the world's largest blockchains.

๐Ÿง‘โ€โš–๏ธ Some are concerned that Telegram has difficulties with regulators in different countries around the world. These fears have especially increased after Durov's arrest in Paris. But as we can see, they have not come true - the messenger continues to operate and is in dialogue with regulators. For example, the company applied for a license in Malaysia this week.

๐Ÿ—บ Cryptocurrencies and blockchain are the new Internet of money, which was finally recognized in the world this year. And TON and Telegram are a portal to this new world.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA: 2024 Results and 2025 Forecast

๐Ÿ”ป Bitcoin fell below $92,000 yesterday and now the price is $94k. This is influenced by the decline in trading on the US stock market during the holidays and the likely slowdown in rate cuts by the Fed next year. The Fed rate may negatively affect the market next year as well.

๐Ÿšฐ For the first time in December, more money was withdrawn from US Bitcoin ETFs last week than was invested - $377.6 million. On the other hand, the outflow from ETFs last week, associated with changes in Fed policy, is relatively small compared to the billions of inflows for the whole of December.

๐Ÿฆ… In addition, Donald Trump has not yet taken office. But he and his team (David Sacks, Paul Atkins, French Hill, Cynthia Lummis and others) plan to do a lot to improve cryptocurrency regulation in the US next year and push for the adoption of the Bitcoin Reserve Act - this is a positive factor for the market in the long term.

๐Ÿ“ This year, Bitcoin ETFs were adopted as a mainstream financial instrument. And in the US, many legislative acts have been prepared that should have a positive impact on the industry. Two key ones are FIT21, which will remove part of the industry from SEC regulation, and the Bitcoin Reserve Act mentioned above.

๐Ÿš€ Even now, before the adoption of these laws, the market has already grown significantly. After adoption, the trend towards legalizing cryptocurrencies will most likely only strengthen. And as a result, the development of the industry will continue.
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland Bitcoin Initiative

๐Ÿ”– Switzerland is officially considering holding a referendum on the creation of a state Bitcoin reserve. Information about this was published in the state newspaper. The initiative for the referendum comes from a group of citizens of the country.
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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช My holidays in Tbilisi

โœŠ The protests in Tbilisi ended during the New Year holidays. Tourists can safely walk along Rustaveli Avenue.

๐ŸŽ‰ Also crypto exchanges with a good rate for clients also took a vacation. Usually weekly days here in Georgia, it is possible to exchange offline USDT to USD with 1% fee.

๐Ÿ’ฑ Online P2P exchange at approximately the same rate only for those, who have accounts in the two largest banks in the country - TBC and Bank of Georgia. But these banks do not open accounts foreigners and expats so easily. But for the same exchange on Credo, the commission is from 2% to 4%.
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๐ŸŽท How did regulation change in LatAm in 2024? (Part 1)

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Latin American countries are known for their relatively easy and straightforward immigration procedures for foreigners. At the moment, probably the most popular country on the continent for permanent relocation is Argentina, where it is quite easy to obtain citizenship by naturalisation after living in the country for 2 years.

๐Ÿ“œ And at the same time, it has one of the most developed procedures for regulating cryptocurrencies - there is a federal law regulating VASPs and their registration procedure. In 2023, licensing procedures were adopted, and in 2024, companies began to actively register. There are already 101 companies in the Argentine VASP registry.

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil, the largest economy, accounts for roughly half the population and half the GDP of the entire region. No wonder it attracts foreigners! The foundations of cryptocurrency regulation here were laid at the end of 2022 when a federal law was passed by the country's parliament.

๐Ÿ—’ The law prescribes the need to licence VASPs, but the country's Central Bank has yet to adopt all the necessary regulatory rules for this (promised in 2024), there is still no VASP registry in the country, and Crypto exchanges can operate without a licence. This is likely to change in 2025.

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico has not changed its regulation in 2024 either: the old rules adopted in 2021 under the fintech law remain in effect. The law requires banks and fintechs to obtain a licence for crypto transactions. However, ordinary VASPs (not banks) can legally operate in the country without a licence; they only need to send reports to the country's financial intelligence unit (UIF) and tax authorities (SAT).

๐Ÿ’ฏ A total of 53 legal entities sent such reports to the UIF in 2024. Also by law, crypto providers must send reports on all transactions over 70k pesos (about $3,400). The number of such transactions more than quadrupled in 2024.

๐ŸŒž In general, both in terms of relocation and launching crypto business, regulation in these three biggest Latin American countries is lax. But you also have to take into account that there are quite high taxes and restrictions on withdrawing capital from the country, which is not always good for business.
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๐Ÿ“ Latest regulation news

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Bybit will limit its operations in India from January 12.

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand continues to optimize its crypto regulation - crypto payments are currently prohibited there, but a special economic zone is planned in the capital, where it will be possible to pay with crypto.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Donald Trump will soon choose his candidate for the post of head of the CFTC. This agency, after the adoption of the federal law on crypto in the United States, will receive the lion's share of control over the licensing of exchanges and other VASPs

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Deputy Aksakov promised that in Russia it is possible to soften the test regime for the turnover of cryptocurrencies within the country.
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๐Ÿ—ฝ Trump Launches Personal Memcoin

โšพ๏ธ Donald Trump has launched his own coin - Trump Memcoin. I think this coin has a good chance of repeating Pepe's fate. You can buy $Trump through the Raydium wallet on Solane. It looks like a very risky asset with investment potential for all 4 years of the presidency.

๐Ÿ’ฏ By the way on the passed week, amount of inflows into US Bitcoin ETF saw more than $1.8 billion amid Trump inauguration expectations.
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