🔻Bitcoin price decline

📉 Today, BTC's price is moving down sharply. Currently, it’s about $92,500 and there is a risk of continuously drop to $90,000 and below.

🫳 The reasons are quite simple - Bitcoin didn’t break the $100,000 mark. In addition, there is a risk that the Fed will keep its current interest rate after its meeting on the 18th of December. However, in a volatile market like crypto, a reversal is always possible.

🇲🇦 Despite the price decline, global regulation continues to improve - Morocco Central Bank plans to cancel its crypto ban.

Tornado Cash case: will mixer regulation change?

The US Court of Appeals made a striking decision: it recognised OFAC sanctions against Tornado Cash as illegal. The Court's reasoning is that sanctions can be imposed on something that is property and belongs to someone, and immutable smart contracts are not on the list of property specified in the IEEPA law.

This is good news for the crypto industry and especially blockchain developers, as it limits the ability to sue them for creating code. Some go even further - they hope that this decision will change the approach to crypto mixers in the future (for instance). If so, it will lead to creation of legal “coin anonymizers” for large crypto holders and hedge funds.

TORN's value has multiplied by 12 after the Court's decision - from $3 to $36. More details about the Tornado Cash court case and its history are in my research.

🇳🇱 Сhange residence and pay exit tax

🇪🇺 Another EU country will impose an “exit tax” on citizens who move abroad. Last month, the Dutch parliament discussed such a legislative proposal to stop tax evasion, and most members supported it. The government will prepare a bill.

🌐 This tax already exists (in various forms) in several countries around the world, including:
🍕 Italy
🐂 Spain
🍁 Canada
❄️ Finland
🐨 Australia
🦒 South Africa
🧭 Norway
🇳🇴 Sweden

🇫🇷 Some countries are also considering stricter exit criteria, such as those proposed for 2025 in France.

🧮 Basically, it works as a tax on capital - shares, stakes in companies - and thus applies to cryptocurrencies as well. Such tax is paid if a person has lived in the country for (typically) more than 5 years and has an income of over $1 million (average figure). So if you are holding a bunch of crypto, you should be careful choosing your country of residence. Last, but not least, sometimes legal entities also pay exit tax.

🇺🇸 US government is going to sell BTC?

🧐 According to Arkham Intelligence US government has transferred almost 20k BTC (about $1,9 bln) to Coinbase Prime. Probably, these Bitcoins will be sold soon.

😈 Some experts qualify this action as an attempt by the outgoing administration to reduce the amount of BTC on USA's balance sheet before the Bitcoin Reserve Act is passed. However, it's only 10% of current US Bitcoin holdings, so it may be simply a planned action.

🇺🇸 New SEC chair

🦅 Donald Trump has nominated crypto lobbyist Paul Atkins as new SEC chair. Paul is leader of Token Alliance and was already SEC chair in 2002-2008.

📈 His nomination may push BTC price above $100,000 this week.

🇪🇺 The EU implements MiCA and changes tax rates

🖨 EU member states have until the end of 2024 to implement MiCA requirements (adopt the necessary laws) to start the re-registration procedure of operating VASPs to the CASP regime (effective in 2025). So, summarising the year's results on regulation is in full swing here. And by the way, not all countries had time to pass all the necessary laws in 2024.

🛂 MiCA will certainly complicate the life of crypto businesses in Europe, as well as users - with transactions in USDT and increased AML requirements. But it will create a legal framework and increase the level of investor protection.

🪨 There is another much bigger problem for EU users than MiCA: tax increases. Unfortunately, many Western European countries that have promoted themselves as cryptohubs (e.g. France, Netherlands) are raising tax requirements. And these plans have only now come to light.

🇫🇷 France has not only increased capital tax requirements for those who leave the country, but is also going to oblige holders to pay tax on unrealised profits at the end of the year. That is, cryptocurrency owners will owe the state for earned profits, regardless of whether they realise those profits (sell the asset) or not. Japan imposed a similar tax earlier, but then cancelled this requirement, as it was considered ineffective. And unfortunately, France may not be the last country to introduce such a tax.

🇷🇴 On the contrary, Romania has announced crypto tax amnesty. Until mid-2025, the tax rate for individuals from the sale of cryptocurrencies will be 0%. Take the hint.

📰 You can read more about how requirements for crypto business in Europe will increase in my new article on Hackernoon.

📈 The first wave of the bull cycle

🇺🇸 While more countries are adopting crypto regulation, the market is going through a full-fledged bull cycle after Donald Trump's victory, although altcoins are getting less liquidity than during the previous bull cycles of 2017 and 2021. Here's a look at some of the coins in the Coinmarketcap top 50, from 5 November to highs in early December, following Trump's appointment of the new SEC head, Paul Atkins:

🔷XRP from $0.50 to $2.90
🔷ALGO from $0.10 to $0.50
🔷BGB from $1.10 to $2.78
🔷UNI from $6.70 to $18.64
🔷DOGE from $0.15 to $0.46
🔷ATOM from $3.90 to $10.42
🔷ARB from $0.47 to $1.10
🔷ADA from $0.59 to $1.20
🔷SUI from $1.85 to $4.32
🔷DOT from $3.47 to $10.70
🔷TON from $4.67 to $7.16
🔷AVAX from $22 to $54
🔷CRO from $0.07 to $0.21
🔷POL from $0.29 to $0.70
🔷APTOS from $8.00 to $14.29
🔷NEAR from $3.60 to $8.00

⏯️ That is, almost no coin from TOP 50 has grown by more than 300% and the range is typically about 50-200%. Volatility in the crypto market is decreasing, making it more and more similar to other financial markets for this indicator. This is a sign of crypto institutionalisation.

👁 However, if we look at the figures for Bitcoin ETFs, liquidity continues to arrive there - over $3bn since 29 November and inflows exceeded outflows on every trading day. Nevertheless, the alt season has already largely taken place. It is possible that we are still waiting for a second bull market in early 2025, but those who are in positions now should be careful and distribute risks properly. Even if the second wave of the bull market awaits us, we should take into account the high probability of correction.

🇪🇺 EU regulation crypto updates

🇨🇿 Against the backdrop of growing requirements for crypto-business in Europe, the Czech Republic offers the opposite, exempting long-term holders from capital taxes. To take advantage of the tax exemption you need to hold crypto for 3 years. I think this is good motivation, especially as the benefit applies retroactively, to those who have already held for more than three years (though in Germany this period is 1 year).

❣️ The requirements for opening bank accounts for companies in the Republic will also be simplified. Czech MP Jan Skopecek noted that “if crypto businesses are not provided with tax benefits, they may relocate to another country”.

🇱🇻 Latvia now allows crypto companies to fund their capital directly in crypto. This Baltic country had no regulation until 2024, but adopted both new tax rules and a law on crypto assets this year. Financial technologies are quite developed here, but usually only back-offices of European companies are located in Latvia, due to complex compliance procedures.

⚠️ Coinbase removes access to USDT, DAI and other stablecoins for all EU users. Only USDC and EURC will remain. Restricting Europeans' access to USDT and increasing requirements for obtaining CASP licenses are among the main drawbacks of MiCA.

🇺🇸 The USA forms legal trends in crypto

🤝 Yesterday, Donald Trump met Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek to discuss several topics, including crypto regulation. At the same moment, Crypto.com dropped its lawsuit against the SEC, perhaps because after the appointment of a new head of the agency, the parties will come to an agreement. Several other events in the US are creating a positive agenda for cryptocurrency prices and are related to regulation:

📝 Texas’ legislators will discuss the purchase of BTC as a reserve asset under an initiative led by Texas State Rep, Giovanni Capriglione.

🇺🇸 Donald Trump joined the Blockchain Association meeting and promised to support the growth of the blockchain industry in the US.

🪐 Senator Cynthia Lummis has claimed, that “America must win the Bitcoin Race”, as it did with the Space Race. The new elected head of Congress's House Financial Services Committee, French Hill is also oriented pro-crypto. And this trend is already spreading to the more conservative Asia and Europe:

🇪🇺 Sarah Knafo has created a Bitcoin Reserve initiative for the European Parliament.

🇹🇭🇯🇵 In Thailand, ex-Prime Minister and influential politician Thaksin Shinawatra has suggested legalizing crypto payments in stablecoins and BTC. Also, consultations about the possible creation of a Bitcoin Reserve have started in Japan.

📈 The US is setting a global trend towards the full legalization of cryptocurrencies and their use by governments as a reserve asset!

☠️The deputy died defending mining in Caucasus

🔫 During a discussion of a law on mining in the Parliament of Abkhazia, a shooting occurred. One deputy was injured and another killed. Abkhazia is an unrecognized territory within Georgia. Most countries do not recognize it as an independent state.

☢️ At the moment, Abkhazia is experiencing an energy and political crisis. Local mining farms are one of the territory's profitable businesses, but they consume up to 50% of all electrical power generated. Most local citizens support a mining ban, which received preliminary approval on 16th of December.

😵 Adgur Kharaziya (a mining ban supporter) wounded Can Quarcia, who called him a populist, and killed Vakhtang Hollandzia.

📉 Market correction

🇺🇸 The market reacted poorly to the latest Fed briefing on December 18, despite the rate cut of 0.25%. It's all about the revised forecasts for the next year: the Fed will take a break and stop cutting the rate. These are the expectations of the market and analysts.

🔻 As a result, BTC prices fell below $95,000. Ethereum lost almost all of its growth and now costs $3,200. The prices of most coins from the TOP-100 fell by 15-20%. The outflow of funds from the Bitcoin ETF on the next trading day after the Fed meeting was $671 million.

📝 However, one should not draw far-reaching conclusions - after all, the Fed's policy may change soon after Trump takes office as president. Also, in 2025, the United States (and other countries) will probably adopt Bitcoin as a reserve fund. All this can have a positive effect on the market.

🇺🇸 Tornado Cash founder demands all charges be dropped

🙅 Tornado Cash founder Roman Storm is demanding that all charges against him be dropped. His legal team is relying on a previous appeals court ruling that OFAC's sanctions against the mixer were illegal. You can read our article about the Tornado Cash case and the appeals court ruling.

🗽 Storm filed the motion in the Manhattan District Court on 18 December. He argues that since the appeals court ruled in the previous case that the Tornado Cash smart contract is unchangeable and cannot be altered by the developers in any way, the current case (on complicity in money laundering) has no basis.

✊ Storm also relies on the opinion of Joseph Van Loon, an expert from his team, that the developers of Tornado Cash cannot control how and by whom their protocol is used. In general, demanding a full acquittal is a bold maneuver that can at least help Storm and his team reach a settlement. As the saying goes ‘Be realistic, demand the impossible!’

🦒Africa is gradually legalizing cryptocurrencies

🌍 This year, not only Europe and the United States have worked on regulating cryptocurrencies. There are positive trends in this direction in Africa as well:

🇿🇦🇹🇿 So far, the most developed of the major African economies in this regard is South Africa. It is not difficult to obtain a license there, and all the rights and opportunities of users (including crypto payments) are spelled out in legislation. More than 200 licenses have already been issued.

🇸🇨🇹🇿 New countries have defined the concept of cryptocurrency in law: the Seychelles and Tanzania

🇲🇦🇬🇭 Even more countries in the region are planning to introduce regulation for crypto exchange next year: Morocco, Ghana, Rwanda (!) and possibly Ethiopia.

🚀 The general trend towards the legalization of cryptocurrencies is also clearly visible in Africa. However, in Kenya and Nigeria, crypto businesses cannot operate normally yet.

🇰🇪 Together with crypto enthusiast Eric Maina from Kenya, we have prepared an article on this topic to describe the African crypto regulation landscape.

💎 New Fintech Solution from Altery

💳 Altery has integrated TON and USDT top-up into its payment card. The card is available in European Union and CIS countries.

💸 Card users may provide payments in fiat including USD, EUR or GBP. It also supports direct transfers of fiat currencies to bank accounts.