Crypto Penetration blog ๐Ÿ”ฉ
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My name is @Ilya_ii. I research the penetration of cryptocurrencies in the life of different countries.
RU channel link @crypto_penetration
Created in collaboration with Ton Whales - crypto regulation database https://cryptopenetration.com/
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The conflict between Telegram and the EU enters a new phase

๐Ÿ—ฝ Although Pavel Durov was released on โ‚ฌ5 million bail, both European regulators and the French authorities have questions about the Telegram messenger. As soon as Pavel was arrested, I did some research on the issue and collected the main accusations from different EU countries.

๐Ÿ“‘ There are two main complaints: the use of Telegram by various opposition groups, some of which are considered extremists by EU authorities, and the activity of scammers, drug dealers and other criminals in the messenger. Telegram does not usually delete opposition groups and does not hand over correspondence between them to law enforcement agencies.

๐Ÿง‘โ€โš–๏ธ To fix this, BIPT - the regulator in Belgium, where Telegram is considered a foreign company - is checking whether the number of users of the platform in the EU is really less than 45 million people (officially 41 million). If this number is large enough, Telegram will receive VLOP status in Europe - โ€œvery large online platformโ€, a status that will impose more obligations and restrictions on the messenger as it interacts with EU authorities.

โญ๏ธ More information is in this article. If you want to support Crypto Penetration, put stars under this post!
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๐Ÿ“‰ Market goes down despite Fed rate cut

๐Ÿ—“ Bitcoin - $58,000, Ethereum - $2,500. September is historically not the best month for crypto, according to statistics. Andrei Grachev from DWF Labs recommends to โ€œtighten beltsโ€ this month.

๐Ÿ’ญ On the other hand, the Fed rate cut is almost a done deal. So why is crypto still falling? Arthur Hayes writes that while risk assets are falling because reverse repurchasing (RRP) is still more favorable at 5.3% than the US Treasury's T-bills, it won't last long.

๐Ÿ• On Tuesday, we are expecting the US manufacturing PMI data - and the probability of a rate cut is likely to increase. In addition, rates are already being cut around the world, which is also a positive factor for crypto. Nevertheless, the effect of this reduction may come not in September, but later.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will Gensler quit?

๐Ÿ—ฝ Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has predicted that Gary Gensler will leave the SEC after the US Presidential Election regardless of who wins. Garlinghouse believes that Democrats are now increasingly softening their stance on cryptocurrencies to attract electoral votes.

๐Ÿฆ… The negative attitude of the Republicans towards the head of the SEC means his resignation after a Republican victory is practically inevitable.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธCFTC issued an order against Uniswap

๐Ÿ‘ฎ Uniswap Labs was ordered to pay a $175,000 fine to CFTC and to stop violating the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) by illegal commodity derivative trading. The investigation against the largest DEX has been launched by the New York State Attorney's Office and Uniswap investors - large venture funds a16z and Union Square Ventures - will be questioned in the case.

๐Ÿšฉ On the one hand, this is not a good event for the industry - other crypto exchanges and DEXs operating in the United States may be dragged into the same investigation.

๐Ÿ’ธ On the other hand, the amount of the fine is ridiculously small for the volume of Uniswap's business, and CFTC regulations are much more lenient than those of the SEC. It seems more important that the CFTC is setting a precedent in this case, to take control over the regulation of crypto exchanges and DEXs.
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Which regulator is better for DeFi in the US?
Anonymous Poll
58%
CFTC
23%
SEC
19%
DeFi protocols and DEXes do not need regulation.
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Pavel Durov has published a detailed statement about his arrest. There's information online about the FBI's wanted for him, by the way. Must be a fake.
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Forwarded from Pavel Durov (Paul Du Rove)
โค๏ธ Thanks everyone for your support and love!

Last month I got interviewed by police for 4 days after arriving in Paris. I was told I may be personally responsible for other peopleโ€™s illegal use of Telegram, because the French authorities didnโ€™t receive responses from Telegram.

This was surprising for several reasons: 

1. Telegram has an official representative in the EU that accepts and replies to EU requests. Its email address has been publicly available for anyone in the EU who googles โ€œTelegram EU address for law enforcementโ€. 

2. The French authorities had numerous ways to reach me to request assistance. As a French citizen, I was a frequent guest at the French consulate in Dubai. A while ago, when asked, I personally helped them establish a hotline with Telegram to deal with the threat of terrorism in France.

3. If a country is unhappy with an internet service, the established practice is to start a legal action against the service itself. Using laws from the pre-smartphone era to charge a CEO with crimes committed by third parties on the platform he manages is a misguided approach. Building technology is hard enough as it is. No innovator will ever build new tools if they know they can be personally held responsible for potential abuse of those tools. 

Establishing the right balance between privacy and security is not easy. You have to reconcile privacy laws with law enforcement requirements, and local laws with EU laws. You have to take into account technological limitations. As a platform, you want your processes to be consistent globally, while also ensuring they are not abused in countries with weak rule of law. Weโ€™ve been committed to engaging with regulators to find the right balance. Yes, we stand by our principles: our experience is shaped by our mission to protect our users in authoritarian regimes. But weโ€™ve always been open to dialogue.

Sometimes we canโ€™t agree with a countryโ€™s regulator on the right balance between privacy and security. In those cases, we are ready to leave that country. We've done it many times. When Russia demanded we hand over โ€œencryption keysโ€ to enable surveillance, we refused โ€” and Telegram got banned in Russia. When Iran demanded we block channels of peaceful protesters, we refused โ€” and Telegram got banned in Iran. We are prepared to leave markets that arenโ€™t compatible with our principles, because we are not doing this for money. We are driven by the intention to bring good and defend the basic rights of people, particularly in places where these rights are violated.

All of that does not mean Telegram is perfect. Even the fact that authorities could be confused by where to send requests is something that we should improve. But the claims in some media that Telegram is some sort of anarchic paradise are absolutely untrue. We take down millions of harmful posts and channels every day. We publish daily transparency reports (like this or this ). We have direct hotlines with NGOs to process urgent moderation requests faster.

However, we hear voices saying that itโ€™s not enough. Telegramโ€™s abrupt increase in user count to 950M caused growing pains that made it easier for criminals to abuse our platform. Thatโ€™s why I made it my personal goal to ensure we significantly improve things in this regard. Weโ€™ve already started that process internally, and I will share more details on our progress with you very soon. 

I hope that the events of August will result in making Telegram โ€” and the social networking industry as a whole โ€” safer and stronger. Thanks again for your love and memes ๐Ÿ™
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Who is rocking the crypto market?

๐Ÿ“‰ The crypto market felt very uncertain last week, with the price of BTC falling from $58,000 to $53,000 and altcoins even more affected.

๐Ÿ™€ The reason has not changed: fear of recession. Despite the Fed's promise to cut rates on September 18, the Nasdaq index falling (by 2%). Against this background and as a risky asset, crypto is "shaking" even more.

โณ The Fed's rate cut is good, but the regulator is probably lagging behind. It may take a long time - from a couple of months to half a year - until the effect of the rate cut (or multiple cuts) affects the markets.

๐Ÿ—ฝ Arthur Hayes, for instance, is confident that the Democrats will do something before the presidential elections in November. So probably the bull run will not happen in September, but some changes are possible in October or November, before the elections.
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Maybe move to Brazil?

๐Ÿง‘โ€โš–๏ธ Recently, Brazil's supreme court banned social network X from operating in the country due to non-compliance with a court order.

๐Ÿ’ฏ Nevertheless, as the largest LatAm economy, Brazil is a very large crypto market and a place for fintech and digital innovation. For instance, it's now testing a joint CBDC program with Mastercard.

๐Ÿชช How can you get a Brazilian passport and how easy is it to transact crypto legally here?

๐ŸŒฑ Spoiler: very easy to get even without licenses and a passport; there is an option to get one in two years. More about all this in a new article.
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๐Ÿน Hamster listing during positive market conditions

๐Ÿ“ˆ Last week was unexpectedly pleasant - from September 9 to September 14, Bitcoin rose sharply from $52,000 to $60,000. The market probably played off the news of the long-awaited Fed rate cut on September 18th.

โœˆ๏ธ On this dynamic, the TON rate also demonstrated growth, from $4.90 to $5.80. Furthermore, Immediately after the Fed rate cut, the TON community awaits two important listing events on Binance: Hamster Combat (HMSTR) on September 26 and Catizen on September 20.

โค๏ธโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ The moment is chosen quite well during positive news for the crypto market. However, some analytics forecast that the TON blockchain may stop for a while during one of these events.
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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช Bybit got local license in UAE

๐Ÿ› Dubaiโ€™s main crypto regulator, VARA has approved Bybit's application for a VASP license. This means that Bybit now can operate in Dubai with local retail and institutional investors. The company was already fully licensed for operations in Kazakhstan two weeks ago.

๐Ÿ›ก Bybit is currently one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world and is second only to Binance in terms of trading volume. Obtaining licenses in UAE and Kazakhstan secures the company from potential legal conflicts with US and EU authorities. The company was previously forced to suspend operations in France due to problems with local fintech regulator, AMF.
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๐Ÿ’ฏ The rate cut is coming today

โœŒ๏ธ The Fed will make a decision on rate cuts in three hours... and many people predict a bullish trend for crypto based on the cut.

๐Ÿ”ป However, rate cuts usually pull stocks & crypto down at first, so please be careful. The rate cut will increase volatility in the market!
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-0,5%
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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Bank of Japan leaves interest rate unchanged

๐Ÿ”ผ Contrary to fears, the Bank of Japan has not raised its interest rate, leaving it at 0,25%. Combined with the Fed's rate cut of 0.5%, this is a great bullish signal for the markets to rise in the long term.

๐Ÿผ But I'm still a bit bearish - market move down in the first two months after a Fed rate cut is still very likely. The fear of recession in the global economy remains.
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๐Ÿน Big scandal around Hamster Kombat ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’ฅ

๐Ÿ—“ This week we are waiting for Binance to list Hamster Kombat, the TON mini-app with the largest audience (over 300 million), while many users complain of current issues:

โšซ๏ธ A significant number of users (citing a figure of 2.3 million) have been banned for alleged cheating. Another 30.6 million were excluded from an airdrop because they didn't specify their wallets in time.
โšซ๏ธ Only 10.25% of the allocated HMSTRs will be distributed to users; the rest will be blocked for 10 months.
โšซ๏ธ Most importantly, the token has a very low price compared to other drops on TON, like DOGS.

๐Ÿ”Ž I have been reading comments in chats and TON channels about how much more or less the rewards from other airdrops are. The average reward in DOGS does look bigger than in HMSTR; Catizen (which players on average spent much less time on) is a bit bigger but still in the same ballpark. In my opinion, the drop could be much bigger compared to lifetime users in the app.

๐Ÿšจ But let's do a bit of investigation together - please join the poll below.

๐Ÿ“ And yes - whether we like it or not, eventually crypto regulation will reach mini-apps too, and their founders will be limited in their ability to make such small drops.
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๐Ÿคฏ Everything is very good... or is it?

๐Ÿ› As I have already written many times, the state of the crypto market depends on the policy of the world's monetary regulators. Simply put, central banks.

๐Ÿ’š Over the past two weeks we received three positive signals at once.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Fed lowered the rate by 0.5% in a single move.

๐Ÿ‰ This week, the Bank of China adopted a stimulus program. It lowered capital requirements for banks and lowered the mortgage rate.

๐Ÿ’น The Bank of Japan, which lends to speculators, kept its rate at the same level. Its previous rate hike of 0.15% in July hurt the markets.

๐Ÿ“ˆ All this combines into a good signal - in the long run.

๐Ÿ™€ But there's a problem. If the world's central banks are gleefully lowering rates, it means they fear a recession in the economy.

๐Ÿบ Markets react positively to rate cuts, but that was the case in 2001 and 2008... then the stock market panic started and it took several years for US indices to recover to previous highs (from 2001 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2013).

๐Ÿค” No one knows what will happen this time.
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๐Ÿน Hamster Listing

โคต๏ธ HMSTR listing on Binance, Bybit and other top exchanges passed today. The pre market price has dropped (but not that much) from $0.01 to $0.0077 at the time of writing the post.

๐Ÿ’ฏ Telegram mini-apps are a positive trend for the crypto, bringing millions of new users there. But unfortunately compared to other mini-apps like Dogs, Catizen, Notcoin - hamster obviously failed to meet users' expectations.

โœˆ๏ธ Despite disruptions in the work of some services and exchanges, TON blockchain has withstood high load, so Hamster listing with 100+ mln audience shows ongoing scaling of TON blockhain and mass adoption of crypto.
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โž• Crypto market takes on liquidity?

๐Ÿ˜ƒ We're seeing increasing numbers at the end of September. This is a reaction to the Fed rate cut and the economic stimulus program from the People's Bank of China (PBoC).

๐ŸŒฑ Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from their September lows. ETH has hit the $2,700 level (September low of $2,171) and BTC touched $66,000 (September low of $53,827). TON is now about $6, near the level before Pavel Durov's arrest on August 24 ($6.50).

โœˆ๏ธ Jettons have not yet recovered from the drop after Durov's arrest, but still give reason for optimism:

๐Ÿ”ต Notcoin is now at $0.009 instead of $0.007 in mid-September; its maximum price this month was above $0.01
๐Ÿ”ต SCALE is at $3.65, recovering from its September low of $3. Before Durov's arrest, its price was about $9
๐Ÿ”ต DOGS and STON are worth half as much as a month ago - $0.0008 instead of $0.0016 and $4.27 instead of $9, respectively
๐Ÿ”ต Jetton is now at $0.942, instead of $1.70 on August 24

๐Ÿš‰ Overall, we see a similar picture across jettons for September - there is a slight upward movement for most. Now everything depends on whether liquidity will continue to stay in the market.
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