📊 Crypto market is falling together with the US stock market. Today $2,9 trillion wiped out from stocks due to the fear of global recession. Bitcoin below $63,000, ETH - $3,000.

Intel - 30%, Amazon - 11%.

⤵️ BTC below $61,000 - what's going on?

💵 We're probably dealing with a continued stock market fall amid recession fear. This is hitting crypto as well. For instance, Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway sold half of his investment in Apple stock this week.

⚠️ So I urge all crypto investors to be careful with their purchases and especially with leverage. Before monetary regulators such as the Fed react to the fall, the market can go down even further. For BTC this may be $50,000 resistance level.

⬇️ The crypto market falls by 17%. Bitcoin - $52,000, Ethereum - $2,300.

🙀 The fear of global recession continues to pull the crypto market down. Regulators are already reacting - the interest rate was raised by the central bank of Japan, but this did not prevent the Japanese stock index, the Nikkei from falling by a record 13%. The British FTSE fell by 2%. Similar falls were seen in previous global crises: COVID-19, the 2008 financial crisis, and the legendary 1987 Black Monday crash.

🤷 Given that we are dealing with a global financial crisis, crypto is still holding up very well. In short, until it is clear what will happen to the global economy (whether it will go into recession and, if so, to what extent), the crypto market will continue to grind along with the global stock market. That's likely the next 2-3 months.

❓ At the same time, there is a good chance that current price levels are a localized bottom or close to it. Thinking back, the crypto market's collapse at the beginning of COVID-19 was a great time to buy, before the bull run.

⤴️ The crypto market has rebounded slightly and is awaiting regulatory decisions

🔺 Bitcoin's price has rebounded from $50,000 to $56,000. Amid recession fears, there has been a small outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs - about $318 million in the first two days of this week according to Farside Investors. That's far less than it could have been given the scale of the panic. David Mericle from Goldman Sachs believes that recession fears are exaggerated.

💹 The global stock market reacted positively to statements by the chairman of the Central Bank of Japan, who promised not to rush a rate increase. Further fluctuations in the price of cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks will strongly depend on the statements of significant regulators and the general situation in the stock market. Panic has subsided, but at any moment a surge of volatility, both up and down, is possible. All this will hit the crypto market.

🇺🇸 Regulators will likely not make any big decisions until after the USA presidential elections. Nevertheless, the Fed’s predicted rate cut in September may set a good dynamic.

🇮🇳 India will release new crypto regulation proposal in September

🥻 This country has already overtaken China in terms of population (1,417 bln people). Cryptocurrencies are legal here and there is a procedure for VASP registration - more than 30 companies registered.

🧾 Probably the most unpleasant part of regulation for local exchanges, which holds back their development is the tax on any crypto transactions (TDS) - 1%. Local exchanges, including the three largest (CoinDCX, WazirX and CoinSwitch) suggested the government in July to abolish this tax, but it remained unchanged.

📝 Instead, local regulators are preparing joint crypto regulation report to be released in September. I wrote more about this topic in the article published on Hackernoon.

🇪🇺 Is EU losing Tether?

💵 Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino claimed recently that MiCA regulation causes a "systemic risk”. Ardoino considers the EU requirement to hold up to 60% of stablecoin reserves in local banks dangerous, citing the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, which caused USDC to depeg, as an example of the risk involved. In the EU, this risk is amplified since banks only guarantee deposits of up to €100,000 - a ridiculously low figure for Tether's reserves.

🧮 In addition to tightening crypto regulations in Europe, there is a trend of raising taxes that affect foreign investors. Switzerland is introducing a 50% inheritance tax, Italy is increasing a flat fee for foreign income tax exemption. Portugal abolished its NHR regime last year. This looks like a long-term trend.

🇺🇸 Will the Fed cut rate after US inflation drop?

📢 Yesterday, the market saw new data about decreasing US inflation, down to 2,9% for the last 12 months (to the end of July).

💼 Some analysts perceive this information as a reason for the Fed to cut rates in September.

🌐 Moreover, as Arthur Hayes (exBitMEX) suggested, the election and fear of global recession will force the government to increase liquidity in the market, part of which will, of course, go to the global crypto market.

🇦🇪 UAE State Bank to Launch Its Own Crypto Exchange?

🚀 Cointelegraph reported that a UAE owned bank (RAKBANK) will launch a state crypto exchange. This is big news, but is not entirely accurate.

🏛 RAKBANK is a private organization. The UAE government does not directly own it, though 57% of the bank's shares are owned by Ras Al Khaimah, one of the seven Emirates. The two most famous Emirates are Dubai and Abu Dhabi. 

♨️ However, 20% of the bank's shares are owned by foreign shareholders and another 20% by members of the royal family and UAE private investors. And RAKBANK's partner is Bitpanda (Austria), a large European crypto broker - one of the few crypto exchanges that has a broker license in the EU.

🇨🇳 China to continue crypto ban

🧑‍⚖️ Chinese Supreme People's Court and Supreme People’s Procuratorate have jointly decided to extend AML laws, in effect since 2007, to crypto. Money laundering with virtual assets is punishable by a fine of up to $28,000 or a prison term of up to 10 years.

⛏ Meanwhile, the market situation remains tense. The rise in gold prices - over to $2,500 (a new high) due to record purchases by central banks - is not influencing Bitcoin. The crypto market continues to move sideways and BTC ETFs showed insignificant inflow of funds last week - $32.4 million according to Farside Investors. BTC is at $60,700, ETH at $2,650 and TON at $6.85.

👮 Lawyers try to accuse Binance of racketeering

🧑‍⚖️ American lawyer Bill Hughes reported a new class action lawsuit against Binance. The plaintiffs are customers of other exchanges and wallets, who have been victims of hacker attacks.

📝 They are using a legal trick related to the US Criminal Organizations Act (RICO) to accuse Binance of being complicit in the actions of hackers who laundered funds stolen from customers there. The plaintiffs' logic: if Binance's business had not allowed laundering, customer funds would not have been lost.

🤑 Professional attorneys are behind the lawsuit. Bill Hughes believes that most likely the lawsuit will not reach the court and Binance will regulate the issue in the pre-court order.

🇺🇸 The Fed is going to act

📣 Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, claimed today that the regulator is going to change its monetary policy and do everything possible for labor market support.

📈 Rate cuts will start soon. The crypto market has already reacted with BTC reaching $62,000.

Pavel Durov was arrested in France. Information to be updated.

https://www.tf1info.fr/justice-faits-divers/info-tf1-lci-le-fondateur-et-pdg-de-la-messagerie-cryptee-telegram-interpelle-en-france-2316072.html