$800 billion asset manager Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by mid-2027.

Historically, every bear market has ended with a crossover of the Realized Price for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.

The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.

And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's bull-score indicator jumped from 30 to 80 in a week, signaling the start of a new bull market phase.

Waiting on it... 🔥

Stop looking at macro through the lens of “rate cut = BTC up.”

Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.

The usual logic is simple:

Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.

The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.

In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.

And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.

The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.

So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.

The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.

😳 Trump Scammed Crypto Investors Out of $4.7 Billion

The Trump family’s crypto projects have cost investors billions of $$$; the biggest loss came from the $TRUMP token, with at least another $1 billion lost on $WLFI

Meanwhile, Trump himself, of course, made a killing off these scam tokens😅

👀 BTC reaction after Jackson Hole over the past 5 years

Every time the Fed Chair has spoken at Jackson Hole, $BTC has followed with a 6–19.5% correction.
Yesterday was no exception. Bitcoin is already down 3.8%, and a 6% decline would bring us right into our target zone around $75K.
So far, the historical pattern is playing out once again.

BIS chief says stablecoins aren’t credible for payments at scale, backing tokenized bank deposits instead.

📊Robinhood's TVL went from zero to $700M in less than a month.

SAYLOR: "We're back."

Bitcoin is above their average buying price for the first time in a while.

What's the move?

📉 So, $BTC has broken above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. And this time, the situation is different from the false breakout/bull trap we saw in May 👀

This time, it looks like a clear bullish breakout, similar to the one we saw in January 2023🤔