Kit closed his long positions with a profit of $11.6 million.
His two wallets appeared very frequently in the screeners—he had been holding the position since early July, with 300 BTC in each wallet.
Many were surprised that he hadn’t locked in his profits yet (especially since everyone was expecting an August sell-off).
But today, at $80k, he finally closed out the entire position, netting $11.6 million.
Why now, rather than holding on for the bull run, considering that the leverage was low?
His two wallets appeared very frequently in the screeners—he had been holding the position since early July, with 300 BTC in each wallet.
Many were surprised that he hadn’t locked in his profits yet (especially since everyone was expecting an August sell-off).
But today, at $80k, he finally closed out the entire position, netting $11.6 million.
Why now, rather than holding on for the bull run, considering that the leverage was low?
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BTC is testing the 50-week MA
In November, we broke below this moving average, confirming the bear market.
Now we’re testing it again—which is exactly what usually happens at the start of a 3-year bull market.
I expect a bounce from this zone and a 10–15% correction.
The bears still have plenty of time to fight back👊
In November, we broke below this moving average, confirming the bear market.
Now we’re testing it again—which is exactly what usually happens at the start of a 3-year bull market.
I expect a bounce from this zone and a 10–15% correction.
The bears still have plenty of time to fight back👊
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❗️U.S. Macro: Core PCE
MoM = +0.2% (expected +0.2% / previous +0.1%)
YoY = +3.3% (expected +3.3% / previous +3.3%)
PCE
MoM = +0.2% (expected +0.2% / prior -0.1%)
YoY = +3.7% (expected +3.7% / prior +3.7%)
Q2 GDP (prelim) = +1.5% (expected +1.5% / prior +2.1%)
MoM = +0.2% (expected +0.2% / previous +0.1%)
YoY = +3.3% (expected +3.3% / previous +3.3%)
PCE
MoM = +0.2% (expected +0.2% / prior -0.1%)
YoY = +3.7% (expected +3.7% / prior +3.7%)
Q2 GDP (prelim) = +1.5% (expected +1.5% / prior +2.1%)
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💴 According to CryptoQuant, altcoin trading volume has reached a two-year high.
In recent days, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding ETH, has increased by approximately $135 billion.
Liquidity is actively shifting from BTC and ETH to riskier assets.
Historically, this shift in capital has served as an important indicator that alt season is approaching.
In recent days, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding ETH, has increased by approximately $135 billion.
Liquidity is actively shifting from BTC and ETH to riskier assets.
Historically, this shift in capital has served as an important indicator that alt season is approaching.
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$800 billion asset manager Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by mid-2027.
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The market is back in the zone of maximum greed 😁
According to the greed index, we’ve already surpassed the levels seen in April–May and caught up to those of October 2025.
LTHs (long-term holders), on the other hand, are currently selling off their BTC, depositing a record number of coins on CEXs since the start of the year 👀
According to the greed index, we’ve already surpassed the levels seen in April–May and caught up to those of October 2025.
LTHs (long-term holders), on the other hand, are currently selling off their BTC, depositing a record number of coins on CEXs since the start of the year 👀
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Historically, every bear market has ended with a crossover of the Realized Price for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
The only exception was the COVID-dump. So far, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
And if it doesn’t happen, we will see, for the first time, a transition from a bear cycle to a bull cycle without a crossover of the LTH and STH Realized Prices.
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Stop looking at macro through the lens of “rate cut = BTC up.”
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
Lower rates can be bullish for $BTC, but the rate itself is not the main variable.
The usual logic is simple:
Rates ↓ → money gets cheaper → financial conditions ease → liquidity rises → capital moves into risk assets → BTC rises.
The problem is that it doesn't always work this way.
The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, QT can continue, banks can tighten lending, M2 can stagnate, and investors can reduce risk exposure.
In that scenario: rates ↓ + liquidity ↓ → BTC falls.
And the opposite is also possible. BTC can rally with high inflation and high rates if liquidity in the financial system is expanding.
Previous cycles show this clearly. The biggest BTC bull moves generally came alongside major injections of liquidity through QE, fiscal stimulus, M2 expansion, and credit growth.
The current market is another good example. BTC's move this week wasn't just about rate expectations. Markets have also been pricing in Treasury buybacks, a weaker DXY, the CLARITY Act, and stronger demand for hard assets amid inflation and massive government debt.
So instead of watching one number, watch the whole system: M2, DXY, yields, QT/QE, the Fed balance sheet, government spending, deficits, credit conditions, and the broader news environment.
The interest rate is just one part of the picture — not a simple “BTC up” or “BTC down” button.
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The market maker seems to be shifting liquidity right now, and the price is not moving equally across all platforms.
I am monitoring the spread closely, and right now the gap on #SOL is around 16%.
Here's what you need to do:
1. BUY #SOL on Binance or any other exchange: Price - $105.29
2. Go to RabuCoin and deposit #SOL there. (You don't need a KYC to trade, so it won't take much time)
3. SELL #SOL on RabuCoin: Price - $122.29
4. Then withdraw your money from there and repeat the whole process.
If you still don't understand something, write to me, I'll try to help - @realcryptomonarch
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The arbitrage is coming to an end, so I want to share some feedback and results from people who participated today.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.
Sometimes other people’s experience says more than another long explanation.
Take a look at the screenshots below and draw your own conclusions.
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😳 Trump Scammed Crypto Investors Out of $4.7 Billion
The Trump family’s crypto projects have cost investors billions of $$$; the biggest loss came from the $TRUMP token, with at least another $1 billion lost on $WLFI
Meanwhile, Trump himself, of course, made a killing off these scam tokens😅
The Trump family’s crypto projects have cost investors billions of $$$; the biggest loss came from the $TRUMP token, with at least another $1 billion lost on $WLFI
Meanwhile, Trump himself, of course, made a killing off these scam tokens😅
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👀 BTC reaction after Jackson Hole over the past 5 years
Every time the Fed Chair has spoken at Jackson Hole, $BTC has followed with a 6–19.5% correction.
Yesterday was no exception. Bitcoin is already down 3.8%, and a 6% decline would bring us right into our target zone around $75K.
So far, the historical pattern is playing out once again.
Every time the Fed Chair has spoken at Jackson Hole, $BTC has followed with a 6–19.5% correction.
Yesterday was no exception. Bitcoin is already down 3.8%, and a 6% decline would bring us right into our target zone around $75K.
So far, the historical pattern is playing out once again.
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A former White House aide was fined $172,539 by the CFTC for trading on Kalshi by using Trump speech secrets.
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