The final 3 months of a Bitcoin bear market are usually the most painful.

2014: -57%
2018: -50%
2022: -33%

2026: ???

In my opinion, $BTC could still drop by around 30% before the cycle fully resets.
Be prepared.

US equities opened lower as expected.

Around $600B in market cap has already been wiped out.

Judging by Trump’s latest statements, the market may now be preparing for a second wave of strikes on Iran tonight.

Meanwhile, the hype on Robinhood is still alive, and we continue searching for and trading setups there.

Nearly $1B has already been lost to hacks in 2026.

And the most concerning part is that many of the affected projects had already passed security audits.

Audits still matter, but they are not a guarantee. As exploit tools become faster and more advanced, some vulnerabilities can still slip through.

Cecuro says its AI-powered auditing platform achieved a 91.45% detection rate on EVMBench, using around 180 specialized agents for each audit.

Security is becoming an AI race too.

Have you noticed how strongly ETH ETF inflows have increased since the start of the month?

Even the escalation in the Middle East has not stopped the flow of capital into $ETH.
That is a pretty strong signal of sustained demand.

Now the main question is whether these inflows can finally translate into stronger price momentum for Ethereum.

US equities have fully recovered yesterday’s sell-off.

Today’s rebound is being driven mainly by the semiconductor and memory sectors.

Around $600B has already returned to the market cap.

Tech is once again leading the recovery.

This bear market really is different.

There are 3 main differences, and the first one is stablecoin market cap.

We have already been in a bear market for 9 months, but unlike 2022, the total stablecoin market cap has not declined.

It has remained almost flat.

Now imagine what could happen once the bull market begins. 🤨

In my view, stablecoin market cap could reach $1T-$1.5T over the next 3 years.

That would become a very strong bullish driver for the entire crypto industry.

Hyperliquid traders are still betting on long-term BTC growth.

Despite the escalation between the US and Iran and the recent $BTC pullback, the net long bias on Hyperliquid continues to increase.

Since May, long positioning has remained at its highest level in the past year.

In other words, traders are using the weakness to build long exposure rather than preparing for deeper downside.

I want to thank you for your activity and support of the channel.

So I decided to give away Telegram Premium to several subscribers. 🎁

The winners will be chosen randomly through Telegram, and Premium will be gifted automatically.

Thank you for staying with me - there is much more interesting content ahead.

The most expensive $711 of his life.

That is probably the best way to describe what happened to one CASHCAT trader.

A couple of weeks ago, he bought 20M tokens for just $69 and later sold them for a 10x, making $711.

Today, those same 20M tokens are worth around $3.4M.

Hard to imagine the level of FOMO he is feeling right now.

Of course, no one can catch every move.
But this is exactly why many traders leave a small percentage of the position as a moonbag.

Sharing my results from today’s arbitrage setup.
The opportunity worked out well, and I managed to complete several successful rounds while the spread remained active.

#BTC may be getting closer to the bottom.

Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is approaching its historical low.

It was lower only once - in December 2022. After that, #BTC gained around 660% over the next 3 years.

The reversal has not happened yet, but the market is already trying to find support.

This does not confirm the bottom, but it suggests that Bitcoin may be entering an important zone.

Imagine the face of the employee who took this photo.

Not long ago, South Korea’s tax authorities raided 124 major tax debtors and seized around $5.6M in crypto.

After the operation, they decided to publish a press release with photos of the confiscated assets.

One of the pictures showed a Ledger.
And right next to it was a piece of paper with the full seed phrase clearly visible.

As you can probably guess, the wallet was completely drained just a few hours later.

A perfect example of how one careless photo can turn a successful seizure into a disaster.

📊The crypto market has now posted negative returns for 3 consecutive quarters.

This is the longest losing streak since 2022.
So what does it tell us?

The market is probably already trading close to bottom territory.

Even if $BTC drops to around $50K and altcoins lose another 20%-30%, it would not fundamentally change the situation anymore.
Most market participants are already sitting in deep drawdowns and waiting for conditions to improve.

And it is not just retail.

Many crypto funds that invested tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars are currently facing the same 70%-90% losses.

⚠️ What makes sense right now?

1️⃣ Focus on fundamentally strong projects that have held up better than the rest of the market over the past few years.

For example, projects like $SUI that showed relative strength and declined less than the average market.

Projects whose market cap has collapsed to $20M-$50M are usually among the weakest in their sector, and there is no guarantee they will survive.

2️⃣ Keep building capital for future investments.

The better moment to become more aggressive will come when the market gives a clear green light.

For that, we are watching the Fed, interest rate decisions, liquidity conditions, and other major macro signals.

The Middle East escalation is entering a new phase.

Iran has launched its largest coordinated missile and drone attack in months, targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan.

Tehran has also officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s parliament speaker said:

“The era of one-sided deals is over. We warned you - either keep your word or pay the price. Reality is already knocking at the door.”
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has also vowed to avenge the death of his father, calling it a demand of the nation that must be fulfilled.
The US has responded with a third round of strikes.
Targets reportedly included air surveillance radars, missile and drone storage facilities, launch sites, maritime radar stations, and air-defense launchers.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tehran “made a mistake and will pay for it.”

Trump has also threatened to “completely destroy Iran” if there is any attempt on his life, saying that 1,000 missiles are already loaded and aimed at Iran, with thousands more ready to follow.

For now, the market reaction remains limited.

$BTC is trading slightly below $64K.

But the show is clearly not over, and the biggest volatility may still be ahead.

Expect heavy liquidations.
This is not the time to rush into futures.

More than $10B has left the total stablecoin market cap since May.

That means a noticeable amount of liquidity has moved out of the crypto market over the past few months.

Stablecoins are one of the clearest indicators of capital waiting on the sidelines.

So when their total supply declines, it usually means there is less money available to support new market growth.

For now, liquidity remains one of crypto’s biggest problems.