• Trump won't lift China tariffs without concessions from Beijing - [DB]

• Trump says another tariff pause is unlikely - [DB]

trenches running hot over the weekend

housecoin approaching 100m after ansem's shill (not sure why he still has pull), but it seems to me the crowd really wants to force a new runner

apart from housecoin, there were others like housecoin derivatives, ai, and bonk eco running

market wants to risk on but there isn't anything fantastic to max bid -> no clear meta or crowd fav

that said, i picked up a small bag of letsbonk on this 70% retrace as a main exposure to bonk eco and will see how it goes

when/if housecoin breaks 100m i wonder what happens

meanwhile wider market on an important pullback

new pairs on pumpswap are also really cancerous wrt liquidity

what is going on

This is quite powerful … by Arnaud Bertrand

Responding to Bill Ackman

"Tell me why I am wrong"

You're wrong because you assume - probably like Trump - that the Chinese will prioritize profits over national dignity and sovereignty, which is simply not going to happen.

Again, Mao, when he declared the establishment of the People's Republic of China, didn't promise wealth, he said: "Ours will no longer be a nation subject to insult and humiliation. We have stood up."

This is the fundamental legitimacy of the Communist Party, much more than money.

So the notion that China would submit to bullying that is eerily similar in nature to what they suffered at the hands of the West during the century of humiliation is a fundamental misunderstanding of the country.

Heck, even from a profit standpoint it wouldn't be beneficial to them because what would happen if China yields? The principal reason why Trump has zero deal on the table right now is because China's position emboldens other nations to also resist American pressure.

If China were to yield, it would send a message to the world that multipolarity is over, and we'd witness American hubris on steroids, with Trump and future administrations validated in their belief that unilateral bullying is effective foreign policy. It would become their blueprint in an even worse way than it already is.

How is that beneficial for China's or anyone's prosperity, beyond the US's?

So all in all, you're wrong because you've fundamentally misread the nature of this confrontation. This isn't merely an economic calculation for China, but an existential question about what kind of world we'll live in tomorrow. China understands that yielding now means surrendering not just on tariffs, but on their right to determine their own economic future.

Their resistance isn't just about this particular trade dispute; it's about establishing boundaries for how great powers interact in the 21st century. By holding firm now, China is investing in a future international order where American unilateral coercion doesn't work anymore. The "damage" you describe pales in comparison to the stakes at play here.

new coin good, old coin bad

always the shiny new thing

Strongest categories remain AI agent coins and memecoins

SUI and TRUMP among large caps too

The market does not flinch and is punishing shorts

they did it once again

yes, memes are worthless and eventually zero

don't mistake cycle plays for long term views

i've come to realise that most ct influencers are good at dishing out content but not alfa

afterall that is their game

and most that shit on memes this cycle are either:
1) eth maxis
2) fund analyst levels that are not in touch w whats going on the ground level (probably not their game either due to mandates)
3) people that suck at trading memes (usually veterans)
4) industry hopefuls that want more progress
5) defi farmers & probably others that prefer trading things that are logical

anyw, as traders you just need to log in everyday and play what the market presents you

the thing about markets is that you buy what the MARKET likes, not what you like

i think this is where a lot of people struggle, esp the ones that tend to think they are smarter than the markets

thank goodness i have a low iq

whether this rally is short-lived or not, just wanted to point it out once again

then you manage accordingly to your preference

because i've probably repeated myself too many times in the past 2-3 months

in the same vein, i do think memes will probably outperform *once again* as with every other continuation we've had this cycle

looking at cex memes + more established ones like fart etc.

think the current demographic of participants are attracted to fast money culture and likely won't settle for utility bids or slow cooks

pumpfun and its likes will remain hot with onchain runners albeit highly rotational

its a known fact that memes are illiquid and often take huge drawdowns - feature not bug

participants have been playing this game willingly and knowingly

they will continue to choose this game again and again

personal edits would include

- the level of outperformance will be much lesser as compared to 2024, but still likely to outperform
- old coin bad, new coin good (only fartcoin is an exception rn)

low to midcap trenches will ALWAYS remain hot

trenches should still remain hot as there will always be a subset of participants willing to or needing to hypergamble on picocaps to accelerate their port

whether size chads will be able to participate remains a question because pumpswap liquidity is worse than what we had previously

most will probably stick to btc and dabble in some mid cap shitters

because the precision required to select the right alts is extremely high in which i see respected traders also failing to do so recently