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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks vulnerable on hawkish Fed expectations, USD demand

➡️Gold consolidates in monthly lows around $5,000 early Tuesday, as focus shifts to the Fed policy verdict.

➡️The US Dollar finds fresh haven demand as the Middle East war drags on; Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes fade.

➡️Technically, Gold eyes a sustained break below the 50-day SMA at $4,965 as RSI stays bearish.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100- and 200-day SMAs trend below and higher, outlining a well-established broader uptrend. The latest candles stabilise just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,999.94 measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high, suggesting dip buyers defend this mid-range area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 stays close to the neutral band, indicating momentum has cooled but not flipped decisively in favour of sellers.

Initial support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82, where the 50-day SMA trades nearby to reinforce this downside cushion. A break below that zone would expose the $4,684.22 area, aligning with the 23.6% retracement as the next notable floor within the broader bullish structure. On the upside, immediate resistance stands near the recent congestion around $5,080, ahead of stronger supply at the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05. A daily close above $5,141 would reopen the path toward the $5,342 region, where the 78.6% retracement is located and where buyers would need to extend gains to revive a test of the $5,598 high.

Gold Sell Now: 5022 - 5026

SL: 5032

TP1: 5019
TP2: 5016

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to extend recovery above 1.1530

➡️EUR/USD clings to Monday’s gains near 1.1500 as the US Dollar comes under pressure.
➡️Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week.
➡️Higher oil prices have prompted inflation expectations.

EUR/USD holds onto gains near 1.1510 at the press time. The pair extends a medium-term decline beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.16, keeping the near-term bias bearish while price holds below this dynamic cap.

RSI hovers in the mid-30s after recovering from oversold territory, showing weak momentum and only a modest loss of downside pressure rather than a firm bullish shift.

Immediate resistance emerges at the three-day high of 1.1530, followed by the 1.1630 area where the 20-day EMA converges as a stronger barrier. A daily close above 1.1630 would be needed to ease downside pressure and open a recovery toward 1.1690. On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent 1.1415 low, with a break exposing 1.1360 and then 1.1300 as the next bearish targets.

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