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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces from critical support, bulls disappointed

XAG/USD Current price: $80.36

➡️Silver prices edged lower at the beginning of the week despite persistent risk aversion.
➡️The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
➡️XAG/USD is technically bearish in the near term, critical support at $76.80.

Silver price edged lower at the beginning of the week, despite multiple weekend headlines hinting at panic taking over financial markets at the opening. Fears were indeed present, although to a moderated extent. Given the escalation of Iran’s war, Oil prices soared amid renewed supply-disruption fears, while the US Dollar (USD) and precious metals edged lower.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks vulnerable on hawkish Fed expectations, USD demand

➡️Gold consolidates in monthly lows around $5,000 early Tuesday, as focus shifts to the Fed policy verdict.

➡️The US Dollar finds fresh haven demand as the Middle East war drags on; Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes fade.

➡️Technically, Gold eyes a sustained break below the 50-day SMA at $4,965 as RSI stays bearish.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100- and 200-day SMAs trend below and higher, outlining a well-established broader uptrend. The latest candles stabilise just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,999.94 measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high, suggesting dip buyers defend this mid-range area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 stays close to the neutral band, indicating momentum has cooled but not flipped decisively in favour of sellers.

Initial support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82, where the 50-day SMA trades nearby to reinforce this downside cushion. A break below that zone would expose the $4,684.22 area, aligning with the 23.6% retracement as the next notable floor within the broader bullish structure. On the upside, immediate resistance stands near the recent congestion around $5,080, ahead of stronger supply at the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05. A daily close above $5,141 would reopen the path toward the $5,342 region, where the 78.6% retracement is located and where buyers would need to extend gains to revive a test of the $5,598 high.

Gold Sell Now: 5022 - 5026

SL: 5032

TP1: 5019
TP2: 5016