Forwarded from Birds of a Feather
Trading Reflections for 2025 YTD
- Haven't done one of these in awhile but thought I'd bring it back (with no more numbers this time).
- Generally pleased with how I handled the last few months. They've been exceedingly challenging, with multiple minefields on both long and short sides for select coins. For the most part I've stuck to my gameplan of reducing trade volatility in times of increased uncertainty and reduced PNL volatility.
What I did right
- Called the regime top (with the broader Tangent team's help) in Jan and expressed it via increasing # of short trades and decreasing # of long trades.
- Put on a very large SOL long that netted the largest PNL trade of the year in March that really helped to smooth the PNL curve.
- Dropped trading volume frequency by ~65% in later end of March and April to protect capital.
What I did wrong
- Did not manage to catch the 74k bottom on material size. Generally was offside for the most part of this recovery given the bear bias I had (and still have). It was very difficult to navigate broader macro given my lack of expertise and I did not have the confidence to risk large amounts of capital at mid 70s. Will need to do more homework and reading on the macro front to understand what indicators are leading / lagging.
- Isolating the HTF and LTF biases and expressing them via perps. Think I could've played the bear market rally a lot more aggressively if I noticed early signs like FARTCOIN moving up 3-4x showing early signs of the broader alt market forming a MTF bottom.
At this point I'm flat again, but you know how this game goes. I'll probably be back with another long or short tmr.
- Haven't done one of these in awhile but thought I'd bring it back (with no more numbers this time).
- Generally pleased with how I handled the last few months. They've been exceedingly challenging, with multiple minefields on both long and short sides for select coins. For the most part I've stuck to my gameplan of reducing trade volatility in times of increased uncertainty and reduced PNL volatility.
What I did right
- Called the regime top (with the broader Tangent team's help) in Jan and expressed it via increasing # of short trades and decreasing # of long trades.
- Put on a very large SOL long that netted the largest PNL trade of the year in March that really helped to smooth the PNL curve.
- Dropped trading volume frequency by ~65% in later end of March and April to protect capital.
What I did wrong
- Did not manage to catch the 74k bottom on material size. Generally was offside for the most part of this recovery given the bear bias I had (and still have). It was very difficult to navigate broader macro given my lack of expertise and I did not have the confidence to risk large amounts of capital at mid 70s. Will need to do more homework and reading on the macro front to understand what indicators are leading / lagging.
- Isolating the HTF and LTF biases and expressing them via perps. Think I could've played the bear market rally a lot more aggressively if I noticed early signs like FARTCOIN moving up 3-4x showing early signs of the broader alt market forming a MTF bottom.
At this point I'm flat again, but you know how this game goes. I'll probably be back with another long or short tmr.
Forwarded from Crypto Narratives
It's not that complicated :
- We're in an altcoin bear market so long BTC.D
- Whenever an altcoin is up 2-3x, scale in to short the spikes
- Manage sizing properly to avoid every risk of being squeezed
- Short hope
- Never try longing this filthy creature called ETH
- We're in an altcoin bear market so long BTC.D
- Whenever an altcoin is up 2-3x, scale in to short the spikes
- Manage sizing properly to avoid every risk of being squeezed
- Short hope
- Never try longing this filthy creature called ETH
Looks like the ZORA team will have a good payday tomorrow at least (ref. above screenshot). no wonder why they give AF about launching absolute dog shit