$BTC has rallied right into its strongest level of resistance… 👀

Bitcoin has finally broken above and into the $66k-$67k resistance zone, which is objectively a very strong move that could affect the macro outlook if we get the following confirmation:

First, we must see this level hold strong heading into the weekly close, which is still five days away and A LOT can happen in five days. I’ve mentioned MANY times that a weekly close above $66k would be objectively bullish, but that’s the key. We must see where the weekly close occurs before jumping to conclusions.

We saw something very similar a few weeks ago when we rallied to $67k and then rejected before closing the weekly candle back below $66k. This move does not mean anything from a macro perspective until we get weekly close confirmation.

With that being said, this rally has been quite impressive, and it could very well continue higher into the next major resistance on the VRPV at $70k. We would then also need to break that level before we can further increase the probability that the macro bottom is in.

Keep a VERY close eye on this level over the coming days as we head into the weekly close. This might be the most important weekly candle close we’ve seen in months.

Let’s take another look at the $DXY this week… 👀

As I expected, we have seen a strong bounce off the 200EMA to start this week as escalations in the Middle East continue.

My target is still the 103-104 level, which would likely correspond with more downward pressure on the risk asset market, as risk assets have an inverse correlation with the $DXY.

Until we break back below the 200EMA, my target of 103-104 will still be in play, even if we chop around at this level for another few weeks.

I definitely recommend keeping an eye on how price develops here over the coming weeks!

$BTC has rejected from its short term resistance… 👀

As I talked about earlier this week, it was likely we were going to see some sort of short term rejection as we rallied into one of the strongest resistance zones in the current range.

Between $65.7k and $67k, we have a BUNCH of resistance confluence that I already explained would be very difficult for price to break through.

I expect price to dip into its next strong support level at $64k in the short term. From there, we’ll see if price can bounce and retest the highs, or if it falls through $64k and heads to the next support level around $61k.

Keep a very close eye on price action as we head into the weekend…

$BTC has ONCE AGAIN done exactly what I expected… 👀

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, I was expecting another short term pullback to retest both the $64k level on the VRVP and the uptrend that price has been forming over the past week.

Clearly, as we can see, price has fallen right back to both of those exact levels and is still currently attempting to hold that support.

If we continue to fall through this strong support level, we will very likely see price find its next level of support around $61k. I do believe price will at least see some sort of short term bounce from this current level, as it is a strong support range on the VRVP.

This is the level we should be keeping an eye on as we head into the weekend. If we start to bounce, we will likely retest the highs once again. But if we break down, we are likely going to retest $61k, as I mentioned before.

Keep a very close eye on this chart!

$BTC has started to bounce from the exact level I’ve been talking about… 👀

In yesterday’s post, I talked about the possibility of a short term bounce from the $64k VRVP support and the current multi-week uptrend. As we can see, this is exactly where price has started to bounce from.

Since it is the weekend, we haven’t seen a very strong bounce, which is pretty expected. If this bounce continues, I’d keep a close eye on price action tomorrow evening before the weekly candle close, when we usually see volume start to pick back up.

If we see a strong bounce, we will likely retest the local highs once again. But if we fail to break those highs and reject, it will be difficult for this current support level to hold up as strongly another time.

If we break the highs, I would target a short term rally into $69k. If we break down from $64k here, then I would expect price to dump into $61k.

Keep a very close eye on these levels!

$BTC on the macro is still struggling to become bullish… 👀

As I’ve been talking about for weeks, the $65.7k level on the weekly chart is our prior BOS that we must see reclaimed via a weekly candle close before the macro charts objectively start to look bullish.

Since we failed to see the weekly candle close a few hours ago break above that level, I am still not expecting a longer-term macro rally and instead expect more downside.

It is only once we break above $65.7k on the weekly that we can FINALLY start to entertain much higher time frame reversals. Until then, we must recognize that we are still objectively in a downtrend.

Keep a close eye on this level as we head into a new week!

$BTC is seeing a strong breakdown here at resistance… 👀

As I’ve been discussing in my past few posts, $BTC was very likely to start developing a short term breakdown if we continued to reject from resistance, and as we can see, this is exactly what has started to play out over the past few hours.

Price has now broken down from both the horizontal support at $64k AND the multi-week uptrend that it had been respecting. Now that this breakdown has been confirmed, I’d expect the next level of support to be around $63k-$61k, which price has now started to enter.

If we can’t hold $61k, then we will very likely start to see this short term dump develop into a higher time frame move and potentially new macro lows. Clearly, as I’ve been talking about for weeks, the weekly resistance between $65.7k-$66k has been unbelievably well respected.

Keep a very close eye on these levels as we head into the week AND as we get the major FOMC meeting news in the coming days!

$BTC is still looking quite weak here on the short term charts… 👀

After price failed to hold the $64k level, we have now seen that prior support flip into clear resistance, and $BTC is now experiencing repeated rejections from it.

If we continue to fail this retest of resistance at $64k, price will very likely fall to the next major support level around $61k. The most bullish scenario would be for price to break back above $64k and then reclaim the downtrend that has formed over the past few days.

If we can break above that downtrend, we will still then need to clear the major macro resistance sitting between $65.7k and $67k that we’ve been discussing for weeks. So it’s safe to say that $BTC is currently facing much stronger headwinds than tailwinds on the short term charts.

Keep a very close eye on these levels as we continue through the week!

The stock market is starting to print some concerning signs… 👀

I haven’t made a post on the S&P 500 in a while due to the crazy amount of chop and indecision we’ve seen from the index while sitting just below its ATHs.

But as we can now see, the stock market has begun to reject from its prior highs and has now fallen below the daily 50 EMA for the first time since the -20% Iran war crash.

This level has clearly been a strong area of support, where we saw major bounces back in June and again over the past few days. But now that this level has been broken, it could be a sign of further continuations lower to come.

It’s likely we see some level of support around the 100 EMA, which is now quickly approaching after today’s bloody daily candle close. If stocks continue lower on the HTF, it will be a major headwind for $BTC and the entire crypto market.

Highly recommend keeping a very close eye on stocks over the next few weeks!