⚠️ Key Events This Week
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.”
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🚨 Powell emergency speech in 1 hour
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
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Crypto flash
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
✅
Crypto flash
Powell Remarks
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
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Crypto flash
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
✅
Crypto flash
📉 History’s biggest trading losses — even pros blow up:
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: The US Department of War announces it will be holding a press conference at 8 AM ET today.
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"day trading is a scam"
"you can't make money trading"
Those are the words spoken by the fearful the ones who quit.
Don't let losers influence you with their negative world view.
You are strong.
They are weak.
You can do it brother.
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Crypto flash
"you can't make money trading"
Those are the words spoken by the fearful the ones who quit.
Don't let losers influence you with their negative world view.
You are strong.
They are weak.
You can do it brother.
✅
Crypto flash
🇺🇸 Defense ETF trade request before Iran strikes raises questions
FT reports that broker for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approached BlackRock in Feb 2026 with a multi-million request to invest in a defense ETF, weeks before strikes on Iran.
The fund manages $3.1B and holds major Pentagon contractors. The deal did not go through.
Pentagon denies the report, calling it false and demanding a retraction.
Timing alone is enough to get attention.
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Crypto flash
FT reports that broker for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approached BlackRock in Feb 2026 with a multi-million request to invest in a defense ETF, weeks before strikes on Iran.
The fund manages $3.1B and holds major Pentagon contractors. The deal did not go through.
Pentagon denies the report, calling it false and demanding a retraction.
Timing alone is enough to get attention.
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Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump tells countries to “go to the Strait and just take it.”
A possible signal that the US is withdrawing from the war.
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A possible signal that the US is withdrawing from the war.
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⚡️ JUST IN: France joins Spain and Italy in blocking US aircraft movements over its territory.
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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran's IRGC issues a warning that they will target 18 US technology companies if the US continues "targeted assassinations" of Iranian leaders, beginning on April 1st.
The companies include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Meta, Boeing, and others.
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Crypto flash
The companies include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Meta, Boeing, and others.
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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran's President Pezeshkian says Iran is ready to end the war with the US but wants guarantees.
US stocks are surging on the news.
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US stocks are surging on the news.
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S&P 500 has been perfectly mimicking the MOVE Index since 2025.
This shows that the stock market dump isn't over yet.
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This shows that the stock market dump isn't over yet.
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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump will address the nation today at 9 PM ET to provide an important update on Iran.
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Stop breaking your rules brother.
Your kids or future kids are counting on you.
Your future self is counting on you.
That moment of impulse is not worth throwing all your goals and dreams away for.
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Crypto flash
Your kids or future kids are counting on you.
Your future self is counting on you.
That moment of impulse is not worth throwing all your goals and dreams away for.
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Crypto flash
Oil price has crashed nearly -8% today to $96.98 after Trump said US will end war and leave Iran in 2-3 weeks.
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⚡️ JUST IN: Iranian parliament says “The Strait of Hormuz will not open, we have not held any negotiations, and we will not hold them”
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Warren Buffett says he is waiting for a larger move to the downside and considers the March move insignificant.
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⚡️ JUST IN: US and Iran discussing ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to officials.
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