There’s a moment right before an impulsive trade where something shifts internally.
If you can learn to notice that moment, even briefly, you’re already in a different position.
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Crypto flash
If you can learn to notice that moment, even briefly, you’re already in a different position.
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Crypto flash
London-based hedge fund Caxton Associates is down more than $1.3B in March. The fund run by Andrew Law dropped about 15% after betting on UK rate cuts and a rise in gold.
The Iran conflict flipped both trades. Gilt yields jumped to 2008 highs, while gold fell around 15% since the war began.
Even large funds get caught on the wrong side when the macro shifts fast.
So don’t stress over a -5% on a virtual prop account.
This was a tough month across the board.
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Crypto flash
The Iran conflict flipped both trades. Gilt yields jumped to 2008 highs, while gold fell around 15% since the war began.
Even large funds get caught on the wrong side when the macro shifts fast.
So don’t stress over a -5% on a virtual prop account.
This was a tough month across the board.
✅
Crypto flash
🚨 UBS halted withdrawals on a $469 million real estate fund for up to 3 years.
Translation: “Sorry, we don’t have your money.”
This is how it starts.
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Crypto flash
Translation: “Sorry, we don’t have your money.”
This is how it starts.
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Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump and senior White House officials have been informed that Iran's counter-proposal to the US peace plan will be announced today, according to CBS News.
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament accused the US of publicly promoting negotiations while secretly planning a ground attack.
He stated that Iran’s armed forces are prepared and waiting for the US to arrive.
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Crypto flash
He stated that Iran’s armed forces are prepared and waiting for the US to arrive.
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Crypto flash
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“About once every two years the market falls 10%.
Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline.
That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes.
If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.”
– Peter Lynch
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Crypto flash
Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline.
That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes.
If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.”
– Peter Lynch
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Crypto flash
It takes longer to master yourself than it does to master your system.
You can become a great analyst in 1–2 years.
But stopping yourself from acting like a cunt when executing your system can take years.
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Crypto flash
You can become a great analyst in 1–2 years.
But stopping yourself from acting like a cunt when executing your system can take years.
✅
Crypto flash
⚠️ Key Events This Week
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.”
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
🚨 Powell emergency speech in 1 hour
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
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Crypto flash
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
✅
Crypto flash
Powell Remarks
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
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Crypto flash
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
✅
Crypto flash
📉 History’s biggest trading losses — even pros blow up:
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: The US Department of War announces it will be holding a press conference at 8 AM ET today.
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
"day trading is a scam"
"you can't make money trading"
Those are the words spoken by the fearful the ones who quit.
Don't let losers influence you with their negative world view.
You are strong.
They are weak.
You can do it brother.
✅
Crypto flash
"you can't make money trading"
Those are the words spoken by the fearful the ones who quit.
Don't let losers influence you with their negative world view.
You are strong.
They are weak.
You can do it brother.
✅
Crypto flash