⚡️ JUST IN: President Trump announces a 10-day pause in the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran, extending the delay until April 6th.
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
There’s a moment right before an impulsive trade where something shifts internally.
If you can learn to notice that moment, even briefly, you’re already in a different position.
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Crypto flash
If you can learn to notice that moment, even briefly, you’re already in a different position.
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Crypto flash
London-based hedge fund Caxton Associates is down more than $1.3B in March. The fund run by Andrew Law dropped about 15% after betting on UK rate cuts and a rise in gold.
The Iran conflict flipped both trades. Gilt yields jumped to 2008 highs, while gold fell around 15% since the war began.
Even large funds get caught on the wrong side when the macro shifts fast.
So don’t stress over a -5% on a virtual prop account.
This was a tough month across the board.
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Crypto flash
The Iran conflict flipped both trades. Gilt yields jumped to 2008 highs, while gold fell around 15% since the war began.
Even large funds get caught on the wrong side when the macro shifts fast.
So don’t stress over a -5% on a virtual prop account.
This was a tough month across the board.
✅
Crypto flash
🚨 UBS halted withdrawals on a $469 million real estate fund for up to 3 years.
Translation: “Sorry, we don’t have your money.”
This is how it starts.
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Crypto flash
Translation: “Sorry, we don’t have your money.”
This is how it starts.
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Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump and senior White House officials have been informed that Iran's counter-proposal to the US peace plan will be announced today, according to CBS News.
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament accused the US of publicly promoting negotiations while secretly planning a ground attack.
He stated that Iran’s armed forces are prepared and waiting for the US to arrive.
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Crypto flash
He stated that Iran’s armed forces are prepared and waiting for the US to arrive.
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Crypto flash
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“About once every two years the market falls 10%.
Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline.
That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes.
If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.”
– Peter Lynch
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Crypto flash
Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline.
That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes.
If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.”
– Peter Lynch
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Crypto flash
It takes longer to master yourself than it does to master your system.
You can become a great analyst in 1–2 years.
But stopping yourself from acting like a cunt when executing your system can take years.
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Crypto flash
You can become a great analyst in 1–2 years.
But stopping yourself from acting like a cunt when executing your system can take years.
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Crypto flash
⚠️ Key Events This Week
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
Focus: US labor and consumer data amid ongoing Iran conflict. Rising oil prices fuel inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
🔴 Monday
● Fed Chair Powell speaks – tone on inflation and rates may move markets.
🟡 Tuesday
● March Consumer Confidence & Feb JOLTS – gauge consumer sentiment and labor demand.
🔴 Wednesday
● March ADP & Retail Sales – early labor signal and consumer spending under high fuel costs.
🟡 Thursday
● Jobless Claims – fresh labor market read.
🔴 Friday
● March Jobs Report – top event. Will confirm labor strength or weakness, shaping Fed outlook.
Main drivers: Jobs data, Iran tensions, oil prices. Watch Friday’s report and oil-linked sentiment.
#JobsReport #OilPrices #FedWatch
Crypto flash
⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.”
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Crypto flash
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Crypto flash
🚨 Powell emergency speech in 1 hour
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
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Crypto flash
Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.
How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down
✅
Crypto flash
Powell Remarks
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
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Crypto flash
-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
-There are risks to both sides of mandate
-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized
-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary
-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time
-Inflation expectations appear anchored
-Not facing yet the question of what to do
✅
Crypto flash
📉 History’s biggest trading losses — even pros blow up:
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash
Adolf Merckle: ~$1B on VW short (2008 squeeze).
Hunt Bros: ~$1.7B on silver (leverage + regulation shift).
Metallgesellschaft: ~$1.3B on oil (futures mismatch).
Orange County: ~$1.7B (leveraged rate bets → bankruptcy).
LTCM: ~$1.8B+ (arbitrage collapse post-Russia default).
UBS: ~$2.3B (unauthorized trades).
Aracruz: ~$2.5B on FX (dollar move wrecked hedge).
Sumitomo: ~$2.6B on copper (manipulation failed).
SocGen: ~$4.9B (hidden index bets unwound in crash).
Amaranth: ~$6.6B (gas spread bet backfired).
Morgan Stanley: ~$9B (subprime derivatives).
JPMorgan: ~$9B (London Whale hedge gone wild).
Same lesson:
Idea doesn’t matter.
Risk and size decide fate.
#Trading #RiskManagement #Lessons
Crypto flash