The US collected a record $288 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was over 3x higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($82 billion).
Who is paying this tax?
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Who is paying this tax?
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⚠️ US CPI in 1 Hour
📊 Core inflation is expected at 0.3% month over month, slightly higher than last month.
📊 Headline inflation is seen at 0.3% month over month, unchanged.
📊 Year over year CPI is expected at 2.5%, down from 2.7%.
If inflation comes in hotter, yields and the dollar can rise while risk assets pull back.
If it cools, markets may price in easier Fed policy.
How does the market react?
👍 Up
👎 Down
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📊 Core inflation is expected at 0.3% month over month, slightly higher than last month.
📊 Headline inflation is seen at 0.3% month over month, unchanged.
📊 Year over year CPI is expected at 2.5%, down from 2.7%.
If inflation comes in hotter, yields and the dollar can rise while risk assets pull back.
If it cools, markets may price in easier Fed policy.
How does the market react?
👍 Up
👎 Down
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Headline CPI came in below expectations both m/m and y/y, pointing to easing price pressure. Core CPI matched forecasts, though it accelerated compared to the previous month.
Overall, the data is moderately positive for markets and may reinforce expectations of a softer Fed policy path.
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Overall, the data is moderately positive for markets and may reinforce expectations of a softer Fed policy path.
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📈 A Practical Way to Eliminate Overtrading
Overtrading is a structural problem, not discipline. Vague rules let your brain fill gaps: the chart looks good, the move feels strong. That’s where bad trades start.
Turn every rule into a clear yes/no. Your setup is a checklist, not a feeling. Decide quickly—debate and it isn’t your trade.
📊 Limit exposure to charts. More scanning = more opportunities. Keep a watchlist. Check at set times. Let alerts bring you to the chart.
📊 Add friction before execution: write rule, invalidation, target. If you can’t answer, you don’t click. This pause filters bad trades.
📊 Automate where possible. If rules are clear, parts can be automated: alerts, conditional orders, partial executions. Less emotion at entry means fewer trades.
Overtrading dies when the system becomes boring; boring is where money is made.
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Overtrading is a structural problem, not discipline. Vague rules let your brain fill gaps: the chart looks good, the move feels strong. That’s where bad trades start.
Turn every rule into a clear yes/no. Your setup is a checklist, not a feeling. Decide quickly—debate and it isn’t your trade.
📊 Limit exposure to charts. More scanning = more opportunities. Keep a watchlist. Check at set times. Let alerts bring you to the chart.
📊 Add friction before execution: write rule, invalidation, target. If you can’t answer, you don’t click. This pause filters bad trades.
📊 Automate where possible. If rules are clear, parts can be automated: alerts, conditional orders, partial executions. Less emotion at entry means fewer trades.
Overtrading dies when the system becomes boring; boring is where money is made.
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Every successful investment strategy really comes down to two things:
1. Let your winners run
2. Cut your losers short
It’s simple to say but very hard to do.
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1. Let your winners run
2. Cut your losers short
It’s simple to say but very hard to do.
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✅ @trading
Crypto flash
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Always take profit before the screenshot
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"Money has no utility to me. Time has utility to me."
~ Warren Buffett
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~ Warren Buffett
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The ability to do nothing is something.
Take notes
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Take notes
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After 2–3 years of trading, you’ll figure it out.
The hardest part of the trading skill is doing nothing.
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The hardest part of the trading skill is doing nothing.
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Crypto flash
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These are the quants you’re competing against in China.
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You don’t need perfect conditions to move forward.
You need consistency and intent.
Everything else is optional.
What’s your excuse?
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You need consistency and intent.
Everything else is optional.
What’s your excuse?
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Crypto flash
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Your biggest trading flex isn’t a green day.
It’s taking consecutive small losses without revenge trading.
That’s elite execution.
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It’s taking consecutive small losses without revenge trading.
That’s elite execution.
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Crypto flash
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⚠️ Key Events This Week
Holiday week, but inflation drives. Core PCE anchors; FOMC minutes and Fed communication shape moves.
About 15% of S&P 500 report earnings, and 10 Fed speakers, so positioning risk stays elevated.
• Monday
- Presidents’ Day, U.S. markets closed
Liquidity thins; flows may build ahead of midweek releases.
🔴 Wednesday
- December Durable Goods Orders
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
Minutes show inflation risk and rate timing; tone shifts feed rate pricing.
• Thursday
- Initial Jobless Claims
Claims track labor conditions; sustained changes matter more than a single print.
🔴 Friday
- December Core PCE Inflation data
- Q4 GDP
- Services / Manufacturing PMI
Core PCE anchors rate expectations; GDP momentum; PMI shows activity/prices.
Main focus: Wednesday minutes and Friday Core PCE data.
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Holiday week, but inflation drives. Core PCE anchors; FOMC minutes and Fed communication shape moves.
About 15% of S&P 500 report earnings, and 10 Fed speakers, so positioning risk stays elevated.
• Monday
- Presidents’ Day, U.S. markets closed
Liquidity thins; flows may build ahead of midweek releases.
🔴 Wednesday
- December Durable Goods Orders
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
Minutes show inflation risk and rate timing; tone shifts feed rate pricing.
• Thursday
- Initial Jobless Claims
Claims track labor conditions; sustained changes matter more than a single print.
🔴 Friday
- December Core PCE Inflation data
- Q4 GDP
- Services / Manufacturing PMI
Core PCE anchors rate expectations; GDP momentum; PMI shows activity/prices.
Main focus: Wednesday minutes and Friday Core PCE data.
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🇺🇸 US Oil Output Turns Negative Year Over Year
US oil production has slipped into annual decline for the first time in 5 years.
At the same time, oil is one of the most heavily shorted assets in over a decade.
Supply tightening while positioning leans hard one way.
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US oil production has slipped into annual decline for the first time in 5 years.
At the same time, oil is one of the most heavily shorted assets in over a decade.
Supply tightening while positioning leans hard one way.
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Crypto flash
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The official White House account congratulated Americans on Presidents’ Day with a graphic featuring Donald Trump and the quote: “I was the hunted, and now I’m the hunter.”
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🎯 The problem with perfect entries
Perfectionism around entries is one of the most expensive traits in trading.
Many traders obsess over the exact level. The clean wick touch. The perfect fill. It looks like discipline. In reality, it creates hesitation and missed trades.
Markets are probabilistic. When you draw a single line and expect price to react perfectly from it, you are forcing rigidity onto something fluid.
A good trade is not about how pretty the entry looks. It is about context, confirmation, and controlled risk.
Two shifts help a lot:
📊 Move from exact lines to zones
📊 Move from touch-based entries to confirmation-based entries
Instead of shorting the first touch of a level, wait for a pullback and a break of structure. Instead of buying the exact low, wait for strength to confirm.
Yes, you might enter slightly worse. But you gain clarity and consistency.
Perfection sounds precise. In practice, it often blocks execution.
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Perfectionism around entries is one of the most expensive traits in trading.
Many traders obsess over the exact level. The clean wick touch. The perfect fill. It looks like discipline. In reality, it creates hesitation and missed trades.
Markets are probabilistic. When you draw a single line and expect price to react perfectly from it, you are forcing rigidity onto something fluid.
A good trade is not about how pretty the entry looks. It is about context, confirmation, and controlled risk.
Two shifts help a lot:
📊 Move from exact lines to zones
📊 Move from touch-based entries to confirmation-based entries
Instead of shorting the first touch of a level, wait for a pullback and a break of structure. Instead of buying the exact low, wait for strength to confirm.
Yes, you might enter slightly worse. But you gain clarity and consistency.
Perfection sounds precise. In practice, it often blocks execution.
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✅ @trading
Crypto flash
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50% profit on $1,000 is $500
5% profit on $100,000 is $5,000
Chase bigger capital not bigger returns
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Crypto flash
5% profit on $100,000 is $5,000
Chase bigger capital not bigger returns
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✅ @trading
Crypto flash
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If you spent $10 million per day for the past 2,000 years since Jesus was born, you would have spent about $7.4 trillion by now.
The US national debt is $38.7 trillion.
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The US national debt is $38.7 trillion.
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WARNING: The biggest stock market crash in history is imminent warns Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor Dad Author.
And the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 stock market collapses.
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And the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 stock market collapses.
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📈 Behavioural Slippage: the return you never capture
“Behavioural Slippage” is the gap between what your system identifies and what you earn. It stems from real-time sub-optimal decisions: missed trades, hesitation, early exits—things backtests miss.
Without recording every idea, precise measurement is nearly impossible. Yet the gap exists and is usually larger than expected.
One manager who tracked all ideas and outcomes saw nearly 40% difference in returns over 3 years. He was profitable, yet much potential gain never materialized.
The solution starts with acceptance: the gap exists and may be bigger than comfortable.
Then identify its sources and treat reduction as an ongoing project. Track behavior. Review decisions. Narrow the edge–execution gap.
The system may be good enough; execution is the real variable.
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“Behavioural Slippage” is the gap between what your system identifies and what you earn. It stems from real-time sub-optimal decisions: missed trades, hesitation, early exits—things backtests miss.
Without recording every idea, precise measurement is nearly impossible. Yet the gap exists and is usually larger than expected.
One manager who tracked all ideas and outcomes saw nearly 40% difference in returns over 3 years. He was profitable, yet much potential gain never materialized.
The solution starts with acceptance: the gap exists and may be bigger than comfortable.
Then identify its sources and treat reduction as an ongoing project. Track behavior. Review decisions. Narrow the edge–execution gap.
The system may be good enough; execution is the real variable.
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✅ @trading
Crypto flash
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