Bitcoin is trying to break out right now.

• But we still need strong candle closes above resistance to confirm the trend is really shifting upward.

The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin is still in Extreme Fear.

• This usually means investors are very cautious, even though some see it as a dip-buying opportunity.

• On-chain data suggests Bitcoin may not have hit the final bottom yet.

• MVRV is around 1.2, while past cycle bottoms usually happened below 1.0.

Bitcoin took about 11 months to rise from $70K to $125K.

• But it only took 5 months to drop back to $70K, showing how fast corrections can happen in crypto.

Bitcoin is still below the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price.

• As long as price stays under this level, the market usually remains in a downtrend.

Since the US-Iran war started 15 days ago

S&P 500: -3.85%
Nasdaq: -3%
Gold: -5.5%
Silver: -13.22%

Bitcoin: 7.75%
The crypto market added $240 billion.

If Bitcoin drops about $5,000 from the current price, more than $3.4B in long positions could get liquidated.

Large liquidations like this can push the price down even faster.

Bitcoin is around $71.8K with momentum slowly improving.

After bouncing from $66K–$68K, BTC is forming higher lows while traders watch $73K resistance.

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In past mid-term election years, Bitcoin has dropped more than 60%.

• In 2026, BTC is currently down about 33%.

• If the same pattern repeats, it suggests another major drop could still happen before the final bottom.

A whale holds a $42M short on Bitcoin.

The position shows about -$33.9M total PnL with rising risk.

With BTC near $71.7K, the large short is under increasing pressure.

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Over the last 5 weeks, Bitcoin is up 3.6%, while the S&P 500 is down 2.2%.

Along with Gold rising 3.7%, this suggests Bitcoin may be acting more like a hedge asset.

The altcoin market cap is falling while Bitcoin continues to dominate market momentum.

This usually means capital is rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin.

A whale just opened a $42M short position on Bitcoin with 40x leverage.

Over the last 2 months, this trader has already lost about $59M.

The electrical production cost of Bitcoin has dropped below $50,000.

This suggests the estimated bottom price floor may be moving lower.

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Bitcoin has liquidity around $74K–$75K (short liquidations) and below $70K (long liquidations).

Since BTC is showing some strength, price could move up to take the $74K–$75K liquidity first.

A good amount of sell liquidity is building between $75K–$80K for Bitcoin.

That usually means many sell orders are sitting in that range, so price could face strong resistance there and it may act as a local top if buying pressure slows down.

Spot demand for Bitcoin is strong, meaning real buyers are active.

Perp traders are getting aggressive, but as long as spot buying continues, price can keep moving higher.

A whale just bought $30.4M worth of Bitcoin.

In the last 2 weeks, this wallet has accumulated 1,960 BTC worth about $144M, showing strong confidence in Bitcoin.