Traditional metrics like NUPL still say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is not in. That joins MVRV and the Puell Multiple.

I'm not very interested in looking for a cycle bottom right now anyway because the most accurate "metric", The Halving Cycles Theory, is still…

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Everyone has their opinion on what "everyone" is thinking right now, so I'll be adding mine as an update to the Bitcoin Calendar of the Masses:

"Bottom is in, We Did It!"

There are lots of confident claims that the cycle bottom is in, citing some profit…

The Second Low Band of the Bear Bands has confirmed its breakdown, and price has retested it as resistance.

The timeline for this model is August - October to reach 44.5k, and November - January to reach 29k.

Given the amount of space (not very much) that…

Some metrics like SMII or others which you've seen across X are already bottomed out. Here, that happened in February this year. Not only that... bullish divergence is starting to form.

So, how is this not the cycle bottom then?

Take March 2024 for example.…

According to the average amount of time in a Bear Market, Bitcoin is at 70% completion.

The drawdown is still very shallow at 53%, even when accounting for diminishing. That's over 20% less than the previous cycle.

Time-wise, not too much to go. Price-wise…

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Some long-term holder data shows that long-term holding is maxed out and at cycle bottom levels, but my long-term holder metric does not.

That being said, it is pretty close.

Current position lines us up with "one more big move to the cycle bottom": September…

The Second Low of the Bear Market (solid orange dot) is coming soon. The window for it is August - October this year.

The last important Halving Cycles Theory point was the First Low (hollow orange dot), which came perfectly in its January - March window…

Pretty standard bear market stuff on the Simple Bands so far!

Break below the mid-line, retest as resistance (orange arrow), and pause halfway to the cycle bottom band which is where we are now.

The cycle bottom band price is 46k and is typically hit twice.

No 3rd "7" (or A13), no deal!

Recently, the final 7 did flash, but it disappeared with the bump up in price. The bearish trend has now reset.

It will be at least 2 months before the next potential 7 is able to appear for the cycle bottom.

For some, the challenge of the bear market will be buying too late or not at all, but I think for most it will be buying too early.

Never have I seen so many people so eager to buy the cycle bottom.

There's a case to be made that this is it, but there was…

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According to the 2 Week Klinger Oscillator, which has been very accurate for the cycle bottom, this isn't it!

Bitcoin is still bumping its head hard against the First Low Band of the Bear Bands.

I could see one band being left out this cycle, but two? Unlikely.

In other words, 46k is still a prime target for August to October. 29k is also not off the table for…

The Money Flow Index shows just how similar the bear markets are.

The current position is the rebound from the first low, as usual around July.

Two more important points to go, which we already know from the Halving Cycles Theory: the Second Low and the…

With some Bitcoin miner talk going around, I thought it'd be a great time to share some thoughts.

Yes, the hash rate and mining difficulty have fallen in a big way, but the amount of decline is similar to some other extremes like July 2021 or December 2018.…

An update on this bear market's compared to others...

Where other Bear Markets have lined up from June to September (the unification zone), this cycle has stayed well above so far. Not bad!

A full catch-up would require a move to 35k by September. That…

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August and September are right around the corner, two notorious months for being poor performers, and the bear market is no exception.

At least a 30% correction is standard, which would take Bitcoin to the low-to-mid 40ks.

An addtional 30% correction is…

Just before hitting the high long-term holder area, the metric stopped out and has now bounced back above the mid-line. A first of its kind for a bear market.

So, long-term holder buying has not reached cycle bottom levels, and momentum has slowed down tremendously.