Looking strictly at the proportion of this bear market to others, it's clear people are way too desperate to turn this into a buying opportunity.

"But... how can the Halving Cycles Theory, which has become popular now, continue to repeat if everyone knows…

Ahhh, a clean retest of the bottom of the bear flag.

This is also the likely place for it to finally break to the downside, since we've completed the second major retest of the top.

Sentiment is in the gutter, but that's not going to stop price from going…

Lots of discussion on the Halving Cycle lately...

Love it or hate it, the Halving Cycles Theory is one of the only models made for Bitcoin that has actually worked.

People doubted the cycle all the way up from November 2022 to October 2025, and they're…

I'll throw my 2 cents in on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale...

The amount sold compared to what Strategy holds is extremely small; most people know this.

The more interesting implication is the psychological shift from "I will never sell" to "I will sell…

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The bear flag has now broken to the downside!

That means it's time to start looking at lower prices that typically come very quickly after that happens.

The next support on the Volume Profile is 38k - 43k. This is also the cycle bottom target of Realized…

The Bear Flag broke after the second major retest of the upper part of the channel, just as almost all of them have.

Take note of the swift moves to the downside after that happens. Usually price gets where it's going in 1 - 2 weeks.

Probably not the last…

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up.

If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss.

Even from people…

No closes yet, but it seems very likely that Bitcoin locks in a break below the First Low Bear Band, triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k.

The cycle bottom target here is on the lower end of my projections at 28.5k.

I am being very patient…

Bitcoin's 2026 bear market performance is now closest to the first bear market in 2014.

The unification zone (where all bear markets have lined up) starts in just 10 days, which means Bitcoin would need to be at least 50k by June 18th.

Everything's right…

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Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory.

It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year.

Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before…

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear.

From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.

Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January…

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On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k.

Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually…

Are bear markets getting less severe over time? Percentage-wise, yes, that's been the trend.

86%, 84%, 77%.

Data-wise, no. Unlike cycle tops which show a clear diminishing across nearly all data, cycle bottoms have been very consistent.

Logarithmic MVRV…

Ah... that looks like a more suitable point 1 for the bear market.

A move to the cycle bottom mark on the Aroon Oscillator, in the same month as all other point 1's (June).

One more move to cycle bottom levels should make point 2.

Just above the unification zone now, where all previous bear market activity lines up. Bitcoin would need to be at least 52k to get there.

Again, this zone also implies a slow grind down to 35k by September.

Compared to other bear markets, there really…

Traditional metrics like NUPL still say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is not in. That joins MVRV and the Puell Multiple.

I'm not very interested in looking for a cycle bottom right now anyway because the most accurate "metric", The Halving Cycles Theory, is still…

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