Let's look at the business cycle, which has been the biggest counterargument to the Halving Cycle since the cycle top in October 2025.

We're using Global PMI, which is a monthly survey of businesses across the world, measuring manufacturing and services…

It's just your average Bear Market May on Logarithmic MVRV.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (people holding for 1 year or more) are moving in the direction we want.

The metric is about 60% way to high long-term holder interest/maximum long-term holder stockpiling (blue).

The more interested they get in buying, the more…

The Bear Flag active since early February is now tied for the longest running since November 2021 at 100 days.

Price is rejecting from the top of the flag.

Again, the flag typically breaks down after the second major retest of the top, which is now complete.…

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Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom.

But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel.

Crosses into…

A simple observation for the cycle bottom using the TRIX indicator on the Monthly.

Good accuracy, just waiting on a crossover.

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k.

We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms.

This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real…

Looking strictly at the proportion of this bear market to others, it's clear people are way too desperate to turn this into a buying opportunity.

"But... how can the Halving Cycles Theory, which has become popular now, continue to repeat if everyone knows…

Ahhh, a clean retest of the bottom of the bear flag.

This is also the likely place for it to finally break to the downside, since we've completed the second major retest of the top.

Sentiment is in the gutter, but that's not going to stop price from going…

Lots of discussion on the Halving Cycle lately...

Love it or hate it, the Halving Cycles Theory is one of the only models made for Bitcoin that has actually worked.

People doubted the cycle all the way up from November 2022 to October 2025, and they're…

I'll throw my 2 cents in on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale...

The amount sold compared to what Strategy holds is extremely small; most people know this.

The more interesting implication is the psychological shift from "I will never sell" to "I will sell…

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The bear flag has now broken to the downside!

That means it's time to start looking at lower prices that typically come very quickly after that happens.

The next support on the Volume Profile is 38k - 43k. This is also the cycle bottom target of Realized…

The Bear Flag broke after the second major retest of the upper part of the channel, just as almost all of them have.

Take note of the swift moves to the downside after that happens. Usually price gets where it's going in 1 - 2 weeks.

Probably not the last…

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up.

If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss.

Even from people…

No closes yet, but it seems very likely that Bitcoin locks in a break below the First Low Bear Band, triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k.

The cycle bottom target here is on the lower end of my projections at 28.5k.

I am being very patient…

Bitcoin's 2026 bear market performance is now closest to the first bear market in 2014.

The unification zone (where all bear markets have lined up) starts in just 10 days, which means Bitcoin would need to be at least 50k by June 18th.

Everything's right…

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Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory.

It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year.

Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before…

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear.

From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.