It's the constant thought that "it's different this time" that allows the Halving Cycles Theory to continue without a scratch for 16 years.

Bitcoin continues its rally from the First Low of the bear market, and it doesn't have anywhere special to be until…

Bitcoin's first pivot of the bear market on the Price Oscillator has been dragging, but it looks like it's finally trying to lock in.

This is the first of three, with the third being the cycle bottom.

Time frame is still spot on. Other pivots were May 2014…

The bigger question for crypto is, where do we go from here?

It is no secret that Bitcoin's returns are diminishing. Even by a model that was made to factor that in, the cycle top still came 1 band lower than projected.

On top of that, Altcoins are in shambles.…

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Bitcoin's at tough resistance here, just one example of many being the Simple Bands Midline at 78k.

Common mid-bear market stuff, also seen in June 2014 and April 2018. 2022 stayed below without retesting.

The cycle bottom band remains at 42k.

The bear bands project a cycle bottom price of 28k, while the Simple Bands project 42k.

So then, what will it be?

It could be either. Here's the thought process when looking for a cycle bottom:

Watch for the majority of cycle bottom data to trigger, then…

Be wary of the "Always" indicators.

"Bitcoin always bottoms when Weekly RSI goes oversold!"

Yes, it has so far, but that does not mean it always will.

Let's remember the 200 Week SMA, which had never been broken to the downside before June 2022. It was…

The predominant pattern here is still very much a bear flag, and now Bitcoin is at the top of the channel, the point where people start to question whether the bottom is in.

Some quick stats:

Current bear flag time: 86 Days
Longest bear flag time (since…

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It's times like these that I start to look like a perma bear, but really I'm just supporting the cycle to continue as usual, which is the bear market to play out in full. (End of 2026)

Fear and Greed has returned to neutral, similar to other cycles at this…

According to the average Bitcoin Bear Market time (391 days), the bear market is at 55% complete. We're 216 days in.

The lowest drawdown point is still -52%, about 25% higher than the previous cycle.

So, in a cycle that has shown no signs of changing, we…

Bitcoin continues to ride on the broader enthusiasm of the stock market to complete a bear market bounce.

The new *shiny thing*, like Gold and precious metals just months ago, has become semiconductors and other AI related investments.

The 2 Week Aroon…

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Let's look at the business cycle, which has been the biggest counterargument to the Halving Cycle since the cycle top in October 2025.

We're using Global PMI, which is a monthly survey of businesses across the world, measuring manufacturing and services…

It's just your average Bear Market May on Logarithmic MVRV.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (people holding for 1 year or more) are moving in the direction we want.

The metric is about 60% way to high long-term holder interest/maximum long-term holder stockpiling (blue).

The more interested they get in buying, the more…

The Bear Flag active since early February is now tied for the longest running since November 2021 at 100 days.

Price is rejecting from the top of the flag.

Again, the flag typically breaks down after the second major retest of the top, which is now complete.…

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Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom.

But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel.

Crosses into…

A simple observation for the cycle bottom using the TRIX indicator on the Monthly.

Good accuracy, just waiting on a crossover.

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k.

We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms.

This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real…