Watch now | Bitcoin Data Newsletter Premium

The S&P 500 has dropped by about 10% from its most recent high, so how does that fit into the cycle?

The last important high was the 15-year high in December 2024, and the next one is not due until 2028. Local highs and corrections (like now) are still possible…

SOPR profit is low, but not cycle bottom low.

The metric continues its journey to high loss territory, set to take place later this year according to the Halving Cycles Theory.

Watch now | Bitcoin Data Newsletter | Friday Video Update

Current bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 52%
Length of correction: 186 days

Average bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 82%
Length of correction: 391 Days

The absolute most consistent thing about Bitcoin has been the Halving Cycle, almost as consistent…

Watch now | Bitcoin Data Newsletter Premium

Introducing... my cycles theory for Gold, which I am calling the "10/4 Cycles Theory".

It says that Gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 - 11 years, while the bear market takes 4 - 5 years.

In February of this year, the bull market…

Interestingly, at the same relative RMC RSI in each cycle, Bitcoin was 1 month out from reaching cycle bottom prices or retesting the RMC Moving Average.

42.5k in a month? Maybe.

Would that be the cycle bottom? Also maybe, in the same way that June 2022…

No pattern is bulletproof, but flags/channels on Bitcoin for the past 2 cycles have done a great job of showing what to expect.

And for the past 2 months, price has been in a textbook bear flag.

This is our second bear flag of the 2026 bear market. For…

Divergence on Monthly SMIO is playing out just as it should for the bear market

The point 1 threshold was crossed in February, now we wait for the regular bullish divergence to form point 2 (the cycle bottom)

Time estimation is 9 - 12 months from point…

Watch now | Bitcoin Data Newsletter Premium

A Bear Market Update

The cycle 4 bear market has now taken the lead as the "least worst" bear market so far, at - 41% from ATHs.

Still though, price action remains very close to other cycles.

The unification zone (where all previous bear markets align)…

The S&P 500 is now fully recovered and at ATHs.

Just as the Quartercent Cycles Theory suggested, the next important high is not due until the "19 Year" high in 2028.

Can Bitcoin still continue its bear market in its own cycle while the rest of the market…

Despite a 52% decline from the cycle top and some indicators at cycle bottom levels, the long-term holder needle hasn't really moved.

Their levels are still showing the highest offloading and the least interest in buying.

And looking at the track record…

It's the constant thought that "it's different this time" that allows the Halving Cycles Theory to continue without a scratch for 16 years.

Bitcoin continues its rally from the First Low of the bear market, and it doesn't have anywhere special to be until…

Bitcoin's first pivot of the bear market on the Price Oscillator has been dragging, but it looks like it's finally trying to lock in.

This is the first of three, with the third being the cycle bottom.

Time frame is still spot on. Other pivots were May 2014…

The bigger question for crypto is, where do we go from here?

It is no secret that Bitcoin's returns are diminishing. Even by a model that was made to factor that in, the cycle top still came 1 band lower than projected.

On top of that, Altcoins are in shambles.…

Watch now | Bitcoin Data Newsletter Premium

Bitcoin's at tough resistance here, just one example of many being the Simple Bands Midline at 78k.

Common mid-bear market stuff, also seen in June 2014 and April 2018. 2022 stayed below without retesting.

The cycle bottom band remains at 42k.

The bear bands project a cycle bottom price of 28k, while the Simple Bands project 42k.

So then, what will it be?

It could be either. Here's the thought process when looking for a cycle bottom:

Watch for the majority of cycle bottom data to trigger, then…

Be wary of the "Always" indicators.

"Bitcoin always bottoms when Weekly RSI goes oversold!"

Yes, it has so far, but that does not mean it always will.

Let's remember the 200 Week SMA, which had never been broken to the downside before June 2022. It was…