This looks like a classic end to a money flow strength triple top.

The phases played out perfectly last cycle, with the final note being the end of money flow in November 2025, signaling the cycle top was in.

The end of the bear market (phase 1) comes…

We know standard Weekly RSI is at cycle bottom levels, but let's look at it a different way...

This is the Weekly RSI of Bitcoin's Realized Market Cap, which gives us a similar result to what metrics like Puell Multiple, MVRV, and NUPL tell us:

Bitcoin…

Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!

Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.

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The current Bitcoin bear market now lines up with last cycle's (2022) after a brief period of worse performance.

According to other cycles, the most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k, where drawdowns unify from June to September.

That's…

Bitcoin Moon Momentum Phases

On phase 1 of 2 of the bear market...

In the bear market zone of the monthly stochastic RSI, right on time.

According to the typical time frame once it's entered, the bear market will last until November of this year, which lines up with the Halving Cycles Theory.

The big thought now is "This…

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March 26th of the bear market is looking more or less like any other bear market March 26th, hanging out around Level 2 of the Magic Bands V2.

The cycle bottom band is at 28.5k and has been precisely retested in each cycle.

However... It's good practice…

Again we find that this March in the bear market is really no different than any other.

Short-term MVRV makes a bearish retest in January/February, followed by a brief bounce and high in March.

There are typically two more bearish retests to follow before…

Using Realized Market Cap, I've created the simple bands, different from the Magic Bands, which use Volume and are more specific.

It's nice to have easy, effective price models, which this does well. A cycle bottom band, a top band, and a midline.

Price…

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The S&P 500 has dropped by about 10% from its most recent high, so how does that fit into the cycle?

The last important high was the 15-year high in December 2024, and the next one is not due until 2028. Local highs and corrections (like now) are still possible…

SOPR profit is low, but not cycle bottom low.

The metric continues its journey to high loss territory, set to take place later this year according to the Halving Cycles Theory.

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Current bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 52%
Length of correction: 186 days

Average bear market stats:

Highest drawdown: 82%
Length of correction: 391 Days

The absolute most consistent thing about Bitcoin has been the Halving Cycle, almost as consistent…

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Introducing... my cycles theory for Gold, which I am calling the "10/4 Cycles Theory".

It says that Gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 - 11 years, while the bear market takes 4 - 5 years.

In February of this year, the bull market…

Interestingly, at the same relative RMC RSI in each cycle, Bitcoin was 1 month out from reaching cycle bottom prices or retesting the RMC Moving Average.

42.5k in a month? Maybe.

Would that be the cycle bottom? Also maybe, in the same way that June 2022…

No pattern is bulletproof, but flags/channels on Bitcoin for the past 2 cycles have done a great job of showing what to expect.

And for the past 2 months, price has been in a textbook bear flag.

This is our second bear flag of the 2026 bear market. For…

Divergence on Monthly SMIO is playing out just as it should for the bear market

The point 1 threshold was crossed in February, now we wait for the regular bullish divergence to form point 2 (the cycle bottom)

Time estimation is 9 - 12 months from point…