"The Halving Cycles Theory can't keep being right because it's too obvious!"

The same words were said during the entire cycle 4 bull run.

As price continues to decline, targets change, and time frames change.

"I'm buying at 30 - 40k at the end of the year"…

Strap in, but don't get too excited! The bear market has a ways to go...

Volatility is shriveling up again after the move to 60k, another standard trait of the bear market.

Time and price wise, I think we're about 30% through the bear market. That's a pretty…

The current bear market is now closer to cycle 2 (2018) than it is to cycle 3 (2022).

Bitcoin is at -48% from the cycle top. 2018 was -50% at the same time, and 2023 was - 30%.

The trick is not to get too ancy to jump in; this is a slow process.

With only…

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So far, both of the local lows have respected the heaviest blocks of volume on the volume profile. The latest obviously being 62k - 71k.

The interesting part is how thin the volume is between 62k and 30k...

The next big block of volume is up to a 40k drop…

The most popular cycle bottom indicator being used is Weekly RSI.

Simply put, it's oversold, and other times that's happened were the cycle bottom.

So what's the difference this time? Why wouldn't the bottom be in?

Most RSI time frames show that Bitcoin…

A bounce after the first low of the bear market makes sense.

So far, everything is right where it should be. It's the exact time frame expected according to the Halving Cycles Theory, and price at the first low band of the Bear Bands.

The next important…

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1st pivot of the bear market almost complete on the Price Oscillator Phases; the price boost is just what we needed.

2 more pivots to go until the cycle bottom!

Another surge of early euphoria is setting in as Bitcoin bounces.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by just how bad the bear market can get.

There were lots of bottom calls in November last year, and they're starting to spring up again. The further the price declines, the more convincing they will be.
…

The age old saying is "Don't fight the trend." In this case, I think that's the Halving Cycle.

People fought tooth and nail for a breakdown of the 4 year cycle all the way up in the last bull market (2023 - 2025), and it turned out just as it always did.…

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This looks like a classic end to a money flow strength triple top.

The phases played out perfectly last cycle, with the final note being the end of money flow in November 2025, signaling the cycle top was in.

The end of the bear market (phase 1) comes…

We know standard Weekly RSI is at cycle bottom levels, but let's look at it a different way...

This is the Weekly RSI of Bitcoin's Realized Market Cap, which gives us a similar result to what metrics like Puell Multiple, MVRV, and NUPL tell us:

Bitcoin…

Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!

Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.

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The current Bitcoin bear market now lines up with last cycle's (2022) after a brief period of worse performance.

According to other cycles, the most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k, where drawdowns unify from June to September.

That's…

Bitcoin Moon Momentum Phases

On phase 1 of 2 of the bear market...

In the bear market zone of the monthly stochastic RSI, right on time.

According to the typical time frame once it's entered, the bear market will last until November of this year, which lines up with the Halving Cycles Theory.

The big thought now is "This…

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March 26th of the bear market is looking more or less like any other bear market March 26th, hanging out around Level 2 of the Magic Bands V2.

The cycle bottom band is at 28.5k and has been precisely retested in each cycle.

However... It's good practice…