The SAR & The Bollinger Bands are still telling to be careful. The price is going up into the 20 Week MA, which is the middle of the Bollinger Bands. Let’s see if we can break above the middle line and the SAR. Also pay attention to the volume decrease over the last 3 weeks.
We are in bear territory until we close above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and spend an entire candle above it, which is insanely important. Also it’s hard to be bullish until we have a weekly close above the last swing high at 8400, knocking out the SAR points.
📌 Currently there is no indication that the bear market has ended, but Bitcoin still has the ability to move into its resistance point of the 30 Week MA.
We are in bear territory until we close above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and spend an entire candle above it, which is insanely important. Also it’s hard to be bullish until we have a weekly close above the last swing high at 8400, knocking out the SAR points.
📌 Currently there is no indication that the bear market has ended, but Bitcoin still has the ability to move into its resistance point of the 30 Week MA.
CryptoBullet
BTC Shorts rose after the #ETF rejection. When the short squeeze happened, the shorts dropped but now the shorts are almost back to where they were. So the market is once again ready for another short squeeze. It’s gonna happen again, guys. The market isn’t…
Please, reread the referred post.
📈 We are getting closer & closer to our target of 7500.
On the 23rd of August we wrote that there would be a dramatic decrease in BTC Shorts. And we've got it.
Look at how shorts have deleveraged since then (~ 90% decrease). That creates a nice environment for price to fall, maybe not now, but in the future.
📌 Pay attention to how shorts has significantly grown today. The crowd rarely shorts against the market move.
On the 23rd of August we wrote that there would be a dramatic decrease in BTC Shorts. And we've got it.
Look at how shorts have deleveraged since then (~ 90% decrease). That creates a nice environment for price to fall, maybe not now, but in the future.
📌 Pay attention to how shorts has significantly grown today. The crowd rarely shorts against the market move.
CryptoBullet
Take note of the big jump in volumes on the yesterday's gravestone doji. That calls for caution. A high volume move above the rising wedge hurdle would signal bullish continuation.
Called you to be cautious after that spike in volume & gravestone doji. Hope that helped you save some money from the dramatic fall.
📰 BREAKING: Investment bank Goldman Sachs has reportedly dropped plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading desk, for now at least.
What a coincidence...
What a coincidence...
CryptoBullet
BTC Shorts rose after the #ETF rejection. When the short squeeze happened, the shorts dropped but now the shorts are almost back to where they were. So the market is once again ready for another short squeeze. It’s gonna happen again, guys. The market isn’t…
Please, read the reffered post.
On the 23rd of August we called that a Dead Cat Bounce with the final target range of 7000-7500 and it worked perfectly.
On the 23rd of August we called that a Dead Cat Bounce with the final target range of 7000-7500 and it worked perfectly.
CryptoBullet
📈 We are getting closer & closer to our target of 7500. On the 23rd of August we wrote that there would be a dramatic decrease in BTC Shorts. And we've got it. Look at how shorts have deleveraged since then (~ 90% decrease). That creates a nice environment…
Guys, also reread this referred post. Very important point regarding BTC shorts.
The BTC shorts are really leveraged, again. Right now we are in a good position for a short squeeze. That huge player hardly wants to take all that people on board with him.
📌 So, the most we can count on is a rebound to 6600 in order to wipe out those excessive shorts. Be careful and do not trade without stop losses.
📌 So, the most we can count on is a rebound to 6600 in order to wipe out those excessive shorts. Be careful and do not trade without stop losses.
We are convinced that there is still more bearishness to come. The question is where will price be.
📌 There is price & time to every bear market. They both have to play out.
If a lower price target (potential bottom) gets hit too early, we have to add a lower price target. If a time period is hit too early before a low and price target, extend your time.
Markets like to correct to significant prior highs.
What level will BTC bounce at? Your best bet is lower fibonachi line which is close to the prior high of 5k.
📌 There is price & time to every bear market. They both have to play out.
If a lower price target (potential bottom) gets hit too early, we have to add a lower price target. If a time period is hit too early before a low and price target, extend your time.
Markets like to correct to significant prior highs.
What level will BTC bounce at? Your best bet is lower fibonachi line which is close to the prior high of 5k.
How will Bitcoin bottom?
Regarding bottom, we need a sharp rebound low like what we saw in January 2015 or an extended period of time near the low of bear market. Unfortunately, for the 2014-15 bear market we got both. Getting both is actually rare. That bear market was very painful, because we not only fell 90%, we sharply rebounded & then the pain of 9 months was felt.
When BTC capitulation?
History suggests we might not see capitulation like we did during the infamous 2014-2015 bear market until price gets closer to 5k.
📌True capitulation occurred when long term ascending support broke & the high of the previous bull run was surpassed.
Regarding bottom, we need a sharp rebound low like what we saw in January 2015 or an extended period of time near the low of bear market. Unfortunately, for the 2014-15 bear market we got both. Getting both is actually rare. That bear market was very painful, because we not only fell 90%, we sharply rebounded & then the pain of 9 months was felt.
When BTC capitulation?
History suggests we might not see capitulation like we did during the infamous 2014-2015 bear market until price gets closer to 5k.
📌True capitulation occurred when long term ascending support broke & the high of the previous bull run was surpassed.
Notice how the 26-year gold bear market never had a spike low. It was slow bleed and then it just got stuck at the bottom.
Bitcoin didn't had a slow bleed. It had a capitulation crash and then it got stuck for an extended period of time for Bitcoin relatively speaking. Gold just had flatness at the low.
Bitcoin didn't had a slow bleed. It had a capitulation crash and then it got stuck for an extended period of time for Bitcoin relatively speaking. Gold just had flatness at the low.
So, bear markets bottom like the S&P 500 or like gold for years. Keep in mind S&P 500 is more volatile than Gold, and Bitcoin is more volatile than the S&P. Hence BTC moves much faster.
We are hoping that we are not going to see both of the worlds like we did in 2015.
We are hoping that we are not going to see both of the worlds like we did in 2015.
On the weekly timeframe we are having a little bit of a bounce. Almost got to 6600 just like we predicted 8 days ago.
The Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten up a little bit. Let’s see where that goes.
Last time (August 23rd, BTC was at 6400) we called it a dead cat bounce with its ultimate target of 7500 and we almost got there.
We are bouncing again from the 6k region. This has been a pretty good bounce, not as strong as the previous one yet, but this time around we are going to be limited by 7000 mark. There are still too many Shorts. BTC Longs/ BTC Shorts ratio is 0.7.
📌The more time 6k holds the price, the more likely it is to break. The fact that we fell from 7400 in such a violent manner is very bearish. We are still in a dead cat bounce.
The Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten up a little bit. Let’s see where that goes.
Last time (August 23rd, BTC was at 6400) we called it a dead cat bounce with its ultimate target of 7500 and we almost got there.
We are bouncing again from the 6k region. This has been a pretty good bounce, not as strong as the previous one yet, but this time around we are going to be limited by 7000 mark. There are still too many Shorts. BTC Longs/ BTC Shorts ratio is 0.7.
📌The more time 6k holds the price, the more likely it is to break. The fact that we fell from 7400 in such a violent manner is very bearish. We are still in a dead cat bounce.
Based on the last two weekly closings, BTC must break lower low within the next 20 days if it wants to go down. Failure to break lower is unlikely (give it a 25% chance).
Entire market is oversold except Bitcoin. From the technical perspective BTC has the best setup for further breakdown within the mentioned period. If it does, the crash will be your opportunity to buy extremely cheap ALTs.
In addition the second half of September is full of significant events, so high volatility is expected.
📌 Important dates for Bitcoin:
19 Sep: CBOE Futures Expiration
21 Sep: Direxion ETF Final Deadline
28 Sep: CME Futures Expiration
30 Sep: CBOE VanEck /SolidX ETF Deadline
Entire market is oversold except Bitcoin. From the technical perspective BTC has the best setup for further breakdown within the mentioned period. If it does, the crash will be your opportunity to buy extremely cheap ALTs.
In addition the second half of September is full of significant events, so high volatility is expected.
📌 Important dates for Bitcoin:
19 Sep: CBOE Futures Expiration
21 Sep: Direxion ETF Final Deadline
28 Sep: CME Futures Expiration
30 Sep: CBOE VanEck /SolidX ETF Deadline
Yesterday we saw a sharp drop to 6100 and a swift uptick to 6550 just around CBOE Futures Expiration time. There was a big volume spike on these moves.
Like we mentioned earlier, important dates bring high volatility.
Like we mentioned earlier, important dates bring high volatility.
The Shorts still around historic high. We continue to emphasize that this is weird with the prices at the low. It’s hard to accurately interpret this.
The ratio of Longs to Shorts is at an all time low, which means Shorts are overleveraged. But they are overleveraged at a point when the price of BTC is prime for a big drop. We are dealing with uncharted territory.
📌 The last two times we has such a Longs/Shorts ratio, Bitcoin doubled in price. But this time the situation is different, because we are in a bear market.
Stay cautious.
The ratio of Longs to Shorts is at an all time low, which means Shorts are overleveraged. But they are overleveraged at a point when the price of BTC is prime for a big drop. We are dealing with uncharted territory.
📌 The last two times we has such a Longs/Shorts ratio, Bitcoin doubled in price. But this time the situation is different, because we are in a bear market.
Stay cautious.
