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Crypto Banter Signals
Clearly visible are spikes in 2017 and 2021 - we have no reason to believe that 2024 will be any different.

This is the case across most crypto-related subreddits.

Many of these subreddits have quality content, which keeps people engaged.

What do you do when you're part of a community of like-minded people who make you laugh and provide helpful information on demand?

You buy the token - and there's the thesis.

There's a high likelihood these new degens will buy the official token for their subreddit when we hit the "buy anything" stage of euphoria.

All of the following tokens have the same general characteristics, with the key metric being the potential for the subreddit to record a surge in subscriber growth.
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MOON (r/CryptoCurrency)

MOON is the community token for the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit, which has over 7.6 million members and is one of the most active subreddits on the site.

At launch, MOON was distributed to all r/CryptoCurrency users based on the amount of karma they had accrued on the subreddit up to that point. The token was originally launched as an ERC-20 token but has been ported to Arbitrum, making the token much more accessible.

In terms of utility, there's really not a lot. It's a SocialFi token, meaning that r/Cryptocurrency users can tip people MOONs for a good post/comment, etc.

This adds value to the community and drives engagement - people post for clout most of the time, and MOON adds the "steroids" factor.

If we call "RedditFi" a sector, MOON would be Bitcoin—it has the largest subscriber count and the highest market cap.

Tokenomics
There are currently 80.6 million MOONs circulating, with an uncapped supply.
The inflation rate is around 900k MOON per mon...
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Technical analysis
MOON rallied close to 600% in a 24-day period between February 23 and March 17, reaching an all-time high of $0.67.

Over the past three days, the token has undergone a healthy correction to $0.39. Currently, MOON is trying to recover from the support range of $0.39-$0.29, but prolonged consolidation in this range is possible. Fibonacci's golden zone of 0.5-0.618 lies between this range, so structurally, MOON should bounce from this range. The Relative Strength Index has also undergone a reset, falling under the overbought zone. While this indicates a subsiding bullish pressure, it allows the market to breathe and prepare for a second leg.
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DONUT (r/ethtrader)
Hot on the heels of MOON comes DONUT, the community token of the subreddit equivalent of an Ethereum degen paradise.

This sub is more focused on discussing developments in that ecosystem, so it has fewer subscribers as a natural result.

With just over 2.2 million subscribers, r/ethtrader is one of the more active communities owing to the "maxi" mindset amongst many of its followers. I.e. everyone has an opinion, and everyone wants to share it - it's essentially a huge echo chamber, as all subreddits usually are.

Still, as Ethereum has the second-largest market cap, and with an Ethereum ETF on the horizon, this token could do well.
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Tokenomics
DONUT has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~220.5 million.
Inflation figures vary wildly every month, but a rough estimate is between 250-300k per month.

With a market cap of ~$5 million, DONUT leaves much wiggle room regarding upside potential.

Valuation
Now, the issue with token-specific subreddits is that, if anything, r/ethtrader members are more likely to buy ETH or Ethereum-related tokens.
Even more likely, they'll sell DONUT rewards to buy that ETH. As such, we'll have to reduce our expectations.

The above is a recent comment made by one of the r/ethtraders - but it also shows the current state of the subreddit.

Now, imagine the sentiment he's complaining about, but there are 3/4/5 times more members in there shilling DONUT.

Therefore, although we've got a lower projection for DONUT, we still believe it can reach as high as $200 million this year.

This places DONUT at a price of ~$0.90 from a current price of $0.023, a ~40x from here.
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Technical analysis

DONUT has experienced a strong correction of around 68% after reaching a high of $0.06 on March 12. It is currently at around $0.02, with minor recovery in play.

The long-term accumulation is between $0.012 and $0.004, but bids can be placed at the confluence of 100-ema and 200-ema, as presented in the chart. This has acted as bullish support in 2024.

One caution to be noted is DONUT's low trading volume of only $132,000 for a market cap of $4.4 million.

It is not the worst, but it should have been higher for a trending token.
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BRICK (r/FortNiteBR)

This one is a bit different. We're all aware of Fortnite (if you aren't, you've been living in another dimension where Fortnite was never created).

Although it's a game and not a crypto project, we cannot forget the community—standing at over 4.1 million members.

FortNiteBR is fast becoming one of the largest communities on Reddit thanks to the EpicGames marketing-industrial complex.

BRICK is their subreddit community token and operates in exactly the same way as MOON and DONUT.

The key here is that many Fortnite players will spend hundreds of dollars on skins. Why not a community token related to Fortnite?

Speculators are even more likely to buy BRICKs because they've heard of Fortnite - again, who hasn't?
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Tokenomics
BRICK has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~64 million.
Inflation figures are unclear, but we believe that BRICK is modelled after MOON.

With a market cap of ~$ $7.8 million, there's a clear disparity between Fortnite's popularity, its subreddit community size, and that low market cap.
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Valuation
Considering the longevity Fortnite has already displayed, we envision the subscriber count on the subreddit will increase continuously in the foreseeable future.
It's important to note that BRICK is not in any way endorsed by Fortnite or EpicGames.

As interactions increase, BRICK comes to the forefront as more subscribers get paid and become more knowledgeable about the sub and the token.

Therefore, we think that BRICK can reach a $500 million market cap, considering the same mechanics as the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit.

People have less reason to sell unless they want to make a quick buck from rewards.

With that valuation in mind, this sets the target at $7.80 per BRICK, a 64x from the current price of $0.12
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Technical analysis
BRICK experienced a 50% drop from $0.24 to $0.12. However, on the daily chart, the price is recovering with a 12% rise.

Fundamentally, BRICK has followed a traditional resistance-support-based price action, and it is currently retracing from a long-term resistance that turned support at $0.118. Another positive confluence to the re-test is that the support of $0.118 is coupled with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line.

Strong demand here may allow BRICK to gradually recover near its recent high of $0.24. BRICK represented a decent trading volume of over $600,000 for its $9 million market cap.
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How to buy

MOON

MOON is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. CoinEx
3. Crypto.com
Additionally, you can get MOON directly on-chain via Arbitrum Nova.
First, you need to bridge ETH (or another asset) with Arbitrum Nova.

MOON can then be purchased via RCPSwap.

DONUT

DONUT is not on any CEX, but you can find it on UNISwap.

BRICK

BRICK is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. Gate.io
3. CoinEx
4. Crypto.com
Additionally, it can be found on RCPSwap on Arbitrum Nova (same process as MOON)
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🇺🇸 The US government made 2.4 X on 💰BTC

CryptoQuant CEO announced that the US government is holding 210,392 BTC seized from all sorts of criminals and these assets are currently making an unrealized gain of x2.4.

Their value exceeds $14 billion.👀
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Bitcoin slows down as on-chain data hints at a ranging market

Following yesterday's FOMC and Powell Press Conference, markets ripped higher.

However, the "smarter" markets, such as the Bond market, aren't really buying into the Fed's narrative. This could have a longer-term implication for risk assets/crypto.

We have also laid out what we expect the environment to be like in the coming months and how we're looking to play it.

Let's dive into it below.

TLDR
1. Markets rallied after the Fed signalled potential rate cuts in 2024, but bond yields suggest scepticism over the Fed's dovish stance.
2. On-chain metrics and trading indicators have become overheated, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation period for crypto prices.
3. Bitcoin could trade rangebound between $60k and $69k for 2-8 weeks to allow indicators to reset before the next bullish leg higher.
4. Big-cap crypto indexes are facing resistance, supporting the case for some consolidation before attempting fresh breakouts.
5. The overall outlook remains bullish, with any pullbacks seen as buying opportunities ahead of the next upswing.
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The Fed, Powell and the markets' reaction
Going into the FOMC and Powell's Press Conference, the key things we were looking for were whether there was a change in the Dot Plot from 3 interest rate cuts down to 2 rate cuts in 2024 and whether there would be talk of a reduction in QT, i.e., reducing the runoff of the Fed's Balance Sheet each month.
The Dot Plot remained the same, with three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed admitted that it saw stronger economic growth, strong employment, and slightly higher inflation than initially suggested in its Dot Plot in December 2023.

So, overall, they've recognised that inflation may be more difficult to get down to their 2% mandated target, yet they've maintained 3 interest rate cuts.

Surely, you taper this back to 2 interest rate cuts if you see inflation not smoothly coming down to target? The reason is that if the Interest rate is not as restrictive as the Fed thinks it is (it's not squashing growth or employment or the inflation rate as much as they'd like), then you can't cut interest rates and make the rate even less restrictive otherwise you'll have an inflation problem again.

The Bond market recognises this, which is why Yields are flat/up today—they're not buying that the Fed will cut three times this year. How can they work with an economy that is as strong as it is?

The rate needs to remain restrictive (higher for longer), particularly with a strong economy, if they want the inflation rate to come down. If the Bond market bought that there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, it would have rallied, i.e., Yields would have fallen substantially. Yet they're flat/higher...

Alongside this, Powell brought up QT (the Fed running off its Balance Sheet) and suggested that they may begin to taper the runoff, i.e., sell (in this case mature) fewer assets each month.

This is a net positive for liquidity. Perhaps the reason for this is that the Reverse Repo Programme is drawing down to 0, having been at $2.5 trillion two years ago. This has been over a $2 trillion stimulus to markets over this period.

The fact that Powell brought this up indicates that the committee (the FOMC) had discussed it and may look to introduce this sooner rather than later. Powell suggested that the Fed were looking to taper to prolong QT by doing less each month but dragging out the process for longer.

Again, perhaps this is another story that the bond market just isn't buying; hence, yields are flat/up.
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Markets' reaction
Personally (Tom), I see Powell and the Fed as having been overly dovish yesterday, and with further thought, I believe they've shown their hand - they want rate cuts.
They acknowledged stronger economic growth and a stronger labour market, and they expect inflation to be higher than previously anticipated over the next 18 months. Yet they stick with 3 rate cuts rather than 2. Alongside this, in the Press Conference, Powell was asked about;

the very loose financial conditions, and he didn't bite back = dovish.
Hotter than expected January and February inflation points, Powell somewhat dismissed it as "a bumpy ride down to 2% inflation" = dovish.
Dismissive of the tapering to the Balance Sheet = dovish.
Overall, I (Tom) see this as a Fed with a bias to cut - good for risk assets/Crypto - and a Fed that is now perhaps tolerant of a 2-3% inflation rate rather than a strict 2% inflation rate. But, they would never outright say this.
Overall, the above is good for risk assets in the short and medium term but less so in the long term.
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On-chain and trading indicator metrics
We will keep this section shorter.
We have covered in prior updates that some of the on-chain and Trading Indicators have been in overheated/overbought territory for a while, which has historically seen them pull back from this area.

This would likely mean a deep pullback in prices or a period of consolidation. This may mean that Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $69k for a time that allows these metrics some time to cool off before the next potential leg higher.

We would see this as bullish for the market if there were 2 to 6 weeks where prices remained rangebound and, therefore, reset these indicators. It's important to remember that there must be periods of consolidation, even boredom, to have a sustained move higher.

Secondly, we have been closely focusing on the market mechanics. We've seen very high Funding Rates and high Open Interest, indicating that there's a large leverage build-up with the bias to be Long. We're now seeing that despite Open Interest being 10% off from its highs, funding has reset considerably, closer to that 0.01% level (a far healthier level).

This shows a rebalancing in positioning, which was needed and a reason we have been less risk-on in the prior few weeks.

Look at the Binance pairs below. They are all in the 0.01-0.02% territory—this is much better.
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⚡️ JUST IN: Over 67% of all #Bitcoin💰 has not moved in the last year 👀
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Bullish on Solana? Don't Ignore this rising star

This time last year, many people were worried that Solana was on its way out. Fast forward to today, and it's clear those fears were premature.

Solana is not just surviving; it's thriving, thanks, in part, to the innovative projects that it hosts.

In this report, we take a closer look at a pivotal piece of the Solana ecosystem. It is hard to be bullish on Solana without being bullish on this project.

This project is the heart and soul of Solana, and if Solana lives up to expectations in the 2024/2025 bull run, this project will be one of the top performers in this season.

Let's dive in!

TLDR
Jupiter is a decentralised swap aggregator and an important infrastructure for the Solana ecosystem.
Volumes are very impressive and have tripled since we last covered it.
It has a launchpad with over 20 projects wanting to be listed.
We remain bullish on JUP and expect it to perform well in line with SOL.