New Bitcoin 2023 Highs More Likely As Time Goes On?

• BTC confirms bearish trends, closing below $27600 for the second week
• Increased rejection and sell-side volume could trigger a downside continuation
• BTC currently finds support at the 200-week MA
• On a monthly scale, BTC is within a sparsely supported $23300-$28900 range
• If no retest (2015-like retest) of the lowering Macro Downtrend occurs soon, it might become unfeasible
• $22500 is the Macro Downtrend retest zone for May
• $21100 for June
• Four Year Cycle suggests a drop below $20k, but higher than $15500 in early 2024
• If no Macro Downtrend retest soon (May, June, July, latest August), BTC may see new 2023 highs before a 2024 drop

(Source: Rekt Capital)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660967134036361220?s=20

Update on the Ripple vs. SEC Case

• The SEC vs. Ripple Labs case was reopened due to newly unsealed documents potentially favoring Ripple.
• Ripple Labs obtained documents associated with a 2018 SEC speech discussing ETH and XRP.
• Despite SEC's resistance, Judge Torres ordered a public release of these documents.
• The public versions of the documents are due for release on June 13th.
• Ripple's confidence seems to be high as they expand and invest, possibly due to the contents of these documents.
• The documents may contain information contradicting the SEC's cryptocurrency regulations.
• Experts predict Ripple may face fines for early XRP sales, but future sales and the token might not be considered securities.
• The case's outcome could affect other crypto firms and potentially influence altcoin prices.

(Source: ReflexivityResearch)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661125826006466560?s=20

Market Insights

• Traditional 60/40 investment portfolios had the worst performance ever last year.
• Shahidi's "eBalanced" portfolio offers similar returns but less risk.
• Investors are increasingly interested in instruments with positive real yields.
• The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility and money market funds are gaining popularity.
• High-risk 0DTE equity options are now 45% of traded S&P 500 options.
• The Fed is urged to reconsider its rate hiking strategy.
• The Fed has failed to significantly reduce its balance sheet post-2008 crisis.
• The rising student loan debt and forgiveness proposals risk creating a moral hazard.
• Debt cancellation may increase the federal deficit, potentially leading to higher taxes.
• Economists warn that debt cancellation could negatively impact credit incentives.

(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)

Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly

• Digital asset investments experienced a fifth consecutive week of outflows, reaching $232M.
• Weekly trading volumes were 40% below the average for the year.
• The broader market saw its lowest trading volume since late 2020, at $20Bn.
• Germany had the most significant outflows $24M, followed by the US $5M and Switzerland $3.3M.
• Minor inflows occurred in Brazil $1.3M and Canada $2.2M.
• Bitcoin saw outflows of $33M, marking a consistent five-week decline.
• Short-bitcoin experienced minor outflows of $1.3M.
• Despite overall negative sentiment, altcoins (except Ethereum) saw inflows, led by Avalanche and Litecoin.
• Blockchain equity ETFs reported a slight outflow of $2M for the second week in a row.

Bitcoin is decoupling from risk assets

• Is showing a declining correlation with the stock market.
• BTC and stock market still show similar long-term trends, but day-to-day factors are changing.
• BTC-related stocks have varying levels of correlation with BTC, with holding companies showing the highest.
• Large BTC miners have shown the most correlation with BTC.
• BTC and ETH remain highly correlated; Bitcoin and gold's correlation is slightly increasing.
• Bitcoin derivatives show a slowing uptrend and balanced positions between long and short BTC.
• "Max pain strike (at $37k)" and the current BTC price have a significant gap, suggesting potential volatility.

(Source: Ecoinometrics)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661631426045804544?s=20

Update for Altcoin Report buyers

If you followed the first rule of the report and got a good entry, you know that some alts are performing well right now, especially considering that the whole market went down.
If you have read the report, you know that these are not pump & dump tokens.

And one altcoin performs notably well.

Check the Twitter page of this project and you will know why.

If you want, you can also derisk this position
(If you haven't already done that last night after the run).

But keep in mind that the narrative has not yet occurred and there are still some catalysts that are coming up in the next months. Look closely at the updates from the project and be smart.

We have also seen on-chain activities that have frontrun the news and are still holding.

Probably insiders.

We will continue to monitor it and keep you up to date.

Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)

Germany enters recession, dollar charges back

• The US dollar shows strength despite a challenging fiscal outlook.
• China's devaluation of the yuan indicates weak global demand.
• Germany is in recession due to decreased global demand, raising questions about the US.
• The US economy remains resilient, with no expected recession until 2024 at the earliest.
• Commodity prices and housing markets show potential deflationary pressures due to a strong dollar and high interest rates.
• Corporate bonds appear to be acting normally despite these pressures.
• Bitcoin's price action could indicate a shift in its correlation with traditional stocks.

(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661815692729917452?s=20

Altcoin Market Update

- Chainlink (LINK)

- Stacks (STX)

- Cosmos (ATOM)

- Solana (SOL)

- Oasis Protocol (ROSE)

- Power Ledger (POWR)


Charts and updates: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661839479680671746?s=20


Note: React with 🔥 if the future updates should always be with a chart.

Updates (P.1)

Kwenta
• Kwenta outperforms GMX in trading volume due to reduced trading fees and an incentives program.

Bitcoin Inscriptions
• Bitcoin inscriptions and marketplace volumes are dropping, indicating reduced interest.

Change in Apple's Position on Crypto Integrations
• Crypto product STEPN integrates Apple Pay, simplifying the crypto experience and encouraging adoption.

Ethereum Security
• Vitalik discourages reliance on Ethereum validators for fund recovery in case of exploits or bugs.
• Bridges that wrap assets are seen as risky, with atomic swaps recommended instead.
• Validiums are preferred over sidechains for their enhanced security.

Cosmos Security Model Updates
• Cosmos introduces "Replicated Security" and develops new security models to cover validator running costs.
• Besides Replicated Security, Opt-in Security and Mesh Security models are under development.

Your feedback is important to us. Thank you for providing it and for the messages 🙂

Today we have another Altcoin Market Update for you.

- Litecoin (LTC)

- Cardano (ADA)

- Polygon (MATIC)

- Polkadot (DOT)

- The Graph (GRT)

- Avalanche (AVAX)

- Anker (ANKR)

- Lido Dao (LDO)

Charts and updates: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1662214161177403392?s=20

Who Has The Bitcoin? A Closer Look At The Bitcoin Supply

• Around 47% of Bitcoin supply is traceable; 4 million are lost.
• Major Bitcoin holders include exchanges, Grayscale Trust, and companies like MicroStrategy.
• Binance and Coinbase hold the majority of Bitcoin on exchanges.
• Long-term Bitcoin holding is historically high, and coins on exchanges are decreasing.
• Bitcoin's 'illiquid supply' (held by entities), rarely sold coins, is at an all-time high.
• Bitcoin's supply is becoming more distributed, especially among smaller, retail holders.
• Large Bitcoin holdings often represent custodians for many users.
• Bitcoin ownership is transparent and easily auditable.
• Bitcoin adoption is widespread and growing, further distributing its supply.

(Source: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1662341142208192513?s=20

Interest rate derivatives in crypto

• Crypto interest rate derivatives struggled in 2022.
• Voltz and IPOR boosted the sector in 2023 by introducing DeFi interest rate swaps.


IPOR Protocol

• DeFi protocol enabling Interest Rates Derivatives on Ethereum.
• IPOR v1: IPOR Index, IPOR AMM, liquidity pools, and Asset Management contracts.
• (New) IPOR v2 aims to become the central hub for DeFi credit, connecting diverse markets.
• Will leverage Ethereum staking and liquid staking derivatives for new risk management tools.
• IPOR v2 will bridge DeFi and traditional finance rates, facilitating arbitrage.
• Launch July

Voltz

• Interest Rate Swaps for Volatile Yields
• Utilizes a concentrated liquidity virtual AMM mechanism
• vAMMs are virtual liquidity pools used for price discovery, not spot trading
• Traders provide liquidity to each other in vAMMs, enabling leveraged positions
• vAMMs use funding rate mechanisms to incentivize accurate price tracking
• Voltz V2 allows Voltz to act as a base layer for derivatives trading
• (New) SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) rates on Avalanche

(Source: delphidigital)

New CryptoBullets Issue for Free

We've listened, we've learned, and now we're leveling up!

Following the invaluable feedback we received from you last week, we are thrilled to announce that starting next week, we're going to supercharge your experience with enhanced insights, specifically tailored for you.

There will also be some surprises waiting for you next week. Stay tuned!

In the meantime, grab a cup of coffee, read the new CryptoBullets issue and enjoy your Sunday.

Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)

Market - This Week

Tuesday
• US - CB Consumer Confidence (MAY)
• China - Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

Wednesday
• US - JOLTs Job Openings (APR)
• Canada - GDP (MAR)
• Germany - CPI Inflation (MAY)
• Germany - Unemployment (MAY)

Thursday
• US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
• US - ADP Employment (MAY)
• UK - Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
• Europe - CPI Inflation (MAY)

Friday
• US - Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY)
• US - Unemployment (MAY)

Note: As mentioned in the TAO section yesterday, keep these unlocks in mind.

• Optimism token unlock this week (around $250M/ 3.6%) - 31 May
• 1inch token unlock this week (around $99M/ 16.7%) - 02 Jun

State of Crypto Market Structure

• Crypto trading volumes declined significantly
• Binance's market share has decreased to 56%, benefiting other exchanges like Huobi, Kraken, and Kucoin
• Offshore exchanges, making up 86% of volume, and decentralized exchanges, are likely to grow due to US regulatory uncertainty
• Liquidity for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains flat, leading to higher market volatility
• TUSD's activity has grown on centralized exchanges, while BUSD's has declined
• Stablecoins, especially Tether, dominate trading pairs on centralized exchanges
• Decentralized exchange volumes are steadily increasing (Uniswap dominating) relative to centralized exchanges

_

Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly

• Digital assets had the 6th week of outflows ($39M) totaling $272M
• Trading volumes were low last week, at 58% of this year’s average
• Bitcoin saw outflows of $11M; short-bitcoin saw a 36% decrease in AuM (also $11M)
• Altcoins had outflows: Algorand $8M and Ethereum $5.9M; Litecoin and Uniswap had minor inflows
• Blockchain equities had outflows of $3.4M last week

Regulatory Developments of This Week

• Huobi HK extends services in Hong Kong amid new regulatory regime.
• China hints at softer cryptocurrency stance with a plan to foster Web3 development.
• Republicans in the US block Biden's proposed 30% tax on crypto mining firms.
• LBRY files a brief that could aid Ripple Finance in their ongoing SEC lawsuit.
• Ripple vs. SEC case outcome could influence future crypto regulation.

Note: Watch the outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling agreement. Possible short-term opportunities. If the agreement is passed, then the price will reflect it. High volatility (very likely). Protect your positions.

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1663847950395617280?s=20

If you used the token unlock information from the last free Crypto Bullets issue, you should be in profit.

Great work!

1inch dip was not that big, but you have to keep in mind that the unlock is still to come.

One possibility is to secure these positions.

Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)


RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1663908643358556162?s=20

The Bitcoin on-chain accumulation score is warming up

• Small Bitcoin holders (under 1BTC) have been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin over the past three months.

• Large Bitcoin holders have been distributing their coins, likely due to exchanges reallocating holdings.

• The "accumulation score" shows Bitcoin holder sentiment. Despite stagnant BTC price in May, the score rose, suggesting optimism among holders.

• This bullish sentiment might not be enough to significantly push the market higher.

• CME Bitcoin futures market shows a lack of enthusiasm as the premium over the spot market decreases, open interest remains stagnant, and net positions of hedge funds and asset managers remain unchanged.

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1664225720929755136?s=20

Opportunities on Starknet

The zk narrative is not here yet, but once it comes many projects in the ecosystems will benefit. Here are four projects that can be tested and will most likely have an airdrop.

- zkLend
- Layerswap
- Briq
- JediSwap

Here you can find some easy ways to qualify for the possible airdrops: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1664635423228932098?s=20