Market - This Week

Monday
• US - Empire State Manf Index (MAY)
• China - Industrial Production (APR)

Tuesday
• US - Retail Sales (APR)
• Canada - CPI Inflation (APR)
• UK - Jobs Report (APR)

Wednesday
• US - Building Permits (APR)
• US - Housing Starts (APR)
• Europe - CPI Inflation (APR)

Thursday
• US - Philly Fed Manf Index (MAY)
• US - Existing Home Sales (APR)


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Protocol TL;DR: Cowswap

• Uses CoW protocol for gasless P2P token trades
• Coincidence of Wants (CoW) enables direct asset exchanges without AMMs
• Trades are settled via batch auctions, reducing MEV extraction and DEX AMM dependence
• Batch auctions mitigate slippage and enhance execution
• Solvers compete for best execution price, adhering to DAO rules to avoid penalties
• Rewards for solvers are split based on value provided
• Cowswap's growth in monthly volumes attracts large traders seeking better execution

Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly

• 4th consecutive week of outflows
• Outflows of $54M, bringing the total outflow to $200M. Bitcoin accounted for 80% of the outflows
• Europe saw significant outflows, while the US had most of its outflows from investors closing short positions
• Total assets under management decreased by 13% (since their mid-April peak) due to price declines
• Inflows were observed in eight altcoins, indicating growing investor interest in alts
• Cardano, Tron, and Sandbox had notable inflows (in realtion to other alts), while BNB experienced outflows

Bitcoin's halving & Fed's next easing cycle

• Bitcoin's fourth halving expected in roughly 345 days
• Around the same time (until EOY or beginning of next year), the Fed is expected to shift from a tightening to an easing policy due to economic downturns
• May boost Bitcoin prices, as one money supply (USD) expands while another (Bitcoin) becomes more scarce
• Previous Bitcoin halvings led to significant price increases, and this one might coincide with the Fed's easing
• Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 is decreasing
• Indicating it may outperform equities when risk-taking returns to the market

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, coupled with potential Fed easing, may trigger a significant price rise

xNFTs (Solana ecosystem)

• Executable NFTs (xNFTs), combining NFTs and applications in one tokenized asset
• Can be executed within a Web3 wallet called “Backpack,” eliminating the need for external applications
• Are still experimental and limited to Solana and the Backpack wallet
• Function using executable programming scripts, with assets and code combined into one asset
• Backpack is an xNFT operating system for deploying, discovering, and executing xNFT apps
• React xNFT is a framework for building executable NFTs
• Coral, the team behind xNFTs and Backpack, has developed Anchor, a popular open-source framework for Solana app development in Rust

Stablecoins - Update

• Tether plans to invest up to 15% of its stablecoin profits into Bitcoin
• Regulation on stablecoins is under progress, with likely differentiation between Fed-regulated "payment stablecoins" and others
• USDC is likely to qualify as a payment stablecoin, while USDT will not due to its diverse backing assets
• Uncertainty over stablecoin issuers getting access to Fed Master Accounts
• If DeFi becomes mainstream, safe collateral may become insufficient for all stablecoins
• Stablecoin innovations continue, exploring alternatives to government-backed options
• DeFi protocols are also expanding their stablecoin offerings and developing their own solutions

Level Finance

Decentralized, non-custodial perpetual exchange

read more: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1659659786038681604?s=20

Get ready to dive deep into the world of crypto.

This week's issue is a gold mine of reports you won't want to miss!

Crypto Bullets TL;DR: @cryptobullets_bot

Take a ride on Bitcoin's thrilling roller coaster, from its triumphant return as Digital Gold to the historical halving events.

In this issue:
• The Halving and Catalyst to Drive the Bitcoin Price Up
• Bitcoin's Next Move
• Economic Overview
• Altcoin and Protocol Updates
• 7 Altcoin TA
• Key Industry News from the past week

We've curated the most pivotal reports and bundled them in our latest CryptoBullets TL;DR issue, just for you.

Latest issue: @cryptobullets_bot

So, sit back get the new issue, grab a coffee, and enjoy all the important information waiting for you.

Don't wait, get the edge now!

This week, you will all get Crypto Bullets for free. We are changing the format.

$1650 in current subscriptions, you will get it from me, summarized, right here, one by one. You will know the source, and key takeaways.

If you like what you see, you can subscribe for further.

If not, at least maybe these bullets will find you well.

Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)

Debt Ceiling and Implications for Liquidity and Market

• The U.S. has hit its debt ceiling in 2023, leading to a funds crisis as its Treasury General Account (TGA) is at a low of $57 billion.

• Once the debt ceiling is resolved, the Treasury aims to boost the TGA to $550 billion by issuing new debt, either as bills (short term), coupons (medium term ), or bonds (long term).

• Depending on the type of debt issued, different market actors would be the primary buyers: Money Market Funds for short-term, banks for medium-term (unlikely, unless the Fed relaxes the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio), and possibly the Federal Reserve for long-term debt.

• The decision of who becomes the primary buyer will significantly impact market liquidity and could lead to major market effects.

(Source: ReflexivityResearch)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660639524752433154?s=20

How will Bitcoin be affected by the contraction of the money supply?

• Contraction of the money supply (M2) is rare and is happening for the first time in 60 years.

• This could impact Bitcoin in two ways: reduced liquidity (less "new" money for investment) and decreased perception of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

• Historically, M2 changes haven't strongly correlated with Bitcoin prices, except post-COVID.

• Since 2020, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets like stocks has increased, making it more susceptible to traditional liquidity factors.

• If M2 contraction lasts long, Bitcoin might be negatively impacted.

• Experts predict the contraction will continue until a recession prompts the Federal Reserve to initiate Quantitative Easing, which could then positively affect Bitcoin. But until then, Bitcoin may face volatility.

(Source: ECOINOMETRICS)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660698777085198341?s=20

Tether Announces Bitcoin Purchase Program

• Will allocate 15% of its net realized operating profits towards buying Bitcoin
• Made a $1.48 billion profit in Q1 2023, largely due to high interest rates
• $1.5 billion in BTC and $3.4 billion of gold as reserves
• Tether has been able to back their stablecoins with short duration assets, earn yield, and retain it
• The Bitcoin purchases could help counteract sell pressure on Bitcoin in high-interest environments
• This strategy may also offset selling pressure from liquidation of seized assets and Mt. Gox repayments
• If other stablecoin issuers adopt this strategy, it could lead to more positive flows for Bitcoin

(Source: ReflexivityResearch)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660913545175785473?s=20

New Bitcoin 2023 Highs More Likely As Time Goes On?

• BTC confirms bearish trends, closing below $27600 for the second week
• Increased rejection and sell-side volume could trigger a downside continuation
• BTC currently finds support at the 200-week MA
• On a monthly scale, BTC is within a sparsely supported $23300-$28900 range
• If no retest (2015-like retest) of the lowering Macro Downtrend occurs soon, it might become unfeasible
• $22500 is the Macro Downtrend retest zone for May
• $21100 for June
• Four Year Cycle suggests a drop below $20k, but higher than $15500 in early 2024
• If no Macro Downtrend retest soon (May, June, July, latest August), BTC may see new 2023 highs before a 2024 drop

(Source: Rekt Capital)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660967134036361220?s=20

Update on the Ripple vs. SEC Case

• The SEC vs. Ripple Labs case was reopened due to newly unsealed documents potentially favoring Ripple.
• Ripple Labs obtained documents associated with a 2018 SEC speech discussing ETH and XRP.
• Despite SEC's resistance, Judge Torres ordered a public release of these documents.
• The public versions of the documents are due for release on June 13th.
• Ripple's confidence seems to be high as they expand and invest, possibly due to the contents of these documents.
• The documents may contain information contradicting the SEC's cryptocurrency regulations.
• Experts predict Ripple may face fines for early XRP sales, but future sales and the token might not be considered securities.
• The case's outcome could affect other crypto firms and potentially influence altcoin prices.

(Source: ReflexivityResearch)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661125826006466560?s=20

Market Insights

• Traditional 60/40 investment portfolios had the worst performance ever last year.
• Shahidi's "eBalanced" portfolio offers similar returns but less risk.
• Investors are increasingly interested in instruments with positive real yields.
• The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility and money market funds are gaining popularity.
• High-risk 0DTE equity options are now 45% of traded S&P 500 options.
• The Fed is urged to reconsider its rate hiking strategy.
• The Fed has failed to significantly reduce its balance sheet post-2008 crisis.
• The rising student loan debt and forgiveness proposals risk creating a moral hazard.
• Debt cancellation may increase the federal deficit, potentially leading to higher taxes.
• Economists warn that debt cancellation could negatively impact credit incentives.

(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)

Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly

• Digital asset investments experienced a fifth consecutive week of outflows, reaching $232M.
• Weekly trading volumes were 40% below the average for the year.
• The broader market saw its lowest trading volume since late 2020, at $20Bn.
• Germany had the most significant outflows $24M, followed by the US $5M and Switzerland $3.3M.
• Minor inflows occurred in Brazil $1.3M and Canada $2.2M.
• Bitcoin saw outflows of $33M, marking a consistent five-week decline.
• Short-bitcoin experienced minor outflows of $1.3M.
• Despite overall negative sentiment, altcoins (except Ethereum) saw inflows, led by Avalanche and Litecoin.
• Blockchain equity ETFs reported a slight outflow of $2M for the second week in a row.

Bitcoin is decoupling from risk assets

• Is showing a declining correlation with the stock market.
• BTC and stock market still show similar long-term trends, but day-to-day factors are changing.
• BTC-related stocks have varying levels of correlation with BTC, with holding companies showing the highest.
• Large BTC miners have shown the most correlation with BTC.
• BTC and ETH remain highly correlated; Bitcoin and gold's correlation is slightly increasing.
• Bitcoin derivatives show a slowing uptrend and balanced positions between long and short BTC.
• "Max pain strike (at $37k)" and the current BTC price have a significant gap, suggesting potential volatility.

(Source: Ecoinometrics)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661631426045804544?s=20

Update for Altcoin Report buyers

If you followed the first rule of the report and got a good entry, you know that some alts are performing well right now, especially considering that the whole market went down.
If you have read the report, you know that these are not pump & dump tokens.

And one altcoin performs notably well.

Check the Twitter page of this project and you will know why.

If you want, you can also derisk this position
(If you haven't already done that last night after the run).

But keep in mind that the narrative has not yet occurred and there are still some catalysts that are coming up in the next months. Look closely at the updates from the project and be smart.

We have also seen on-chain activities that have frontrun the news and are still holding.

Probably insiders.

We will continue to monitor it and keep you up to date.

Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)

Germany enters recession, dollar charges back

• The US dollar shows strength despite a challenging fiscal outlook.
• China's devaluation of the yuan indicates weak global demand.
• Germany is in recession due to decreased global demand, raising questions about the US.
• The US economy remains resilient, with no expected recession until 2024 at the earliest.
• Commodity prices and housing markets show potential deflationary pressures due to a strong dollar and high interest rates.
• Corporate bonds appear to be acting normally despite these pressures.
• Bitcoin's price action could indicate a shift in its correlation with traditional stocks.

(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)

RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661815692729917452?s=20