WIF – Crucial Moment Approaching!
A key move is coming soon! For an upside breakout, we need to break the local structure and push beyond the marked level.

On February 3rd, we got a buy signal and locked in a +29% profit. Now, with a stronger divergence and increasing money inflows on the 4H and 12H timeframes, we need a much higher move to confirm a trend shift.

If we fail to break the structure, the next downside targets are $0.53 and possibly $0.38. One thing I don’t like is the stop at $0.55—round numbers often act as liquidity traps, and we tend to revisit them before moving.

Global targets for spring 2025 remain unchanged:

Conservative target: $2.75 #wif
New ATH: Around $7 by the end of the year 🚀

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How to Track Crypto Whales & Big Wallets Like a Pro!
#education

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Bitcoin Dominance Analysis: Altcoin Season or BTC Takeover?

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Jupiter stands out among other coins! A great example of a team that is actually working and delivering real results, not just marketing moves. Hopefully, we’ll see the performance of the Solana ecosystem, with Jupiter becoming a key player! Stay tuned for updates. 🚀 #jupiter #jup

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Bake Price Prediction: Can BakerySwap Explode in 2025? #bake

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Cake price prediction. #cake #pancakeswap

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The market sentiment right now feels just like it did before the FTX collapse. The only difference is that Bitcoin was at $18,000 back then, and now it’s at $97,000.

Let’s be honest—everyone who wanted to profit from Bitcoin has already done so. And in reality, no one really cares where Bitcoin goes from here. What difference does it make to the majority whether Bitcoin reaches $120K or $250K if all the liquidity is in it while most people are stuck in altcoins?

It’s moments like these that expose the true intentions of those who claim to care so much about Bitcoin and the adoption of the crypto sector. The truth is, no one cares. We’re sitting here with bags full of altcoins, and every week the market generously gifts us a new bottom.

Right now, I’m only speculating on intraday futures. Of course, deep down, I want to believe that I can take a “safe” 2-3x leverage, open a position at the absolute bottom, and ride any altcoin to new all-time highs. But by the evening, I end up closing the trade because the latest drop wiped out even those who longed StarkNet at $0.29, liquidating even third-leverage positions after pushing it down to $0.17.

So my thoughts about the spring remain the same—nothing fundamentally new. What’s more frustrating isn’t just the altcoin market itself but the time wasted staring at charts and doing research. And also, how the market has become increasingly dependent on media and external factors over time.

Before, we had decentralization but few participants and little liquidity. Now, we have a massive influx of people and huge liquidity, but the rules are no longer decentralized. The market is now controlled by big Wall Street players, who, in turn, influence media sentiment. And those players are controlled by elites playing geopolitical chess.

A closed loop, where at the very end sit us—the traders and investors—who came here to work on decentralization. The irony.

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CELESTIA Price Prediction. TIA Future Looks Bright? #tia #celestia

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TAO Price Prediction: How High Can Bittensor Go in 2025? #tao

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Looking at this kind of statistics is both laughable, terrible, and astonishing at the same time! DYDX, which has been supposedly building something fundamental for the past three years—major updates, partnerships, a native token, and more—has lost 90% in just three months! The trading volume is nowhere near comparable to Hyperliquid. Just 1,300 unique traders (users) per day…

So, the question arises: What exactly has the team been working so hard on that the platform became irrelevant without ever being truly needed in the first place? How did all the users simply move to other platforms? And how did the token crash from $25 to $1, trade there for three years, and then collapse to $0.60?

Is this what they call "hard work"?

I’ll say it again: fundamentals play absolutely no role! When Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%, or even to 45-40%, any token will pump purely from liquidity rotation, not because the team has done anything meaningful.

Yet, teams will still present the rise of their native tokens as their achievement. #dydx #hype

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DOT updates! #polkadot #dot

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It’s interesting to observe through the metrics that over the past seven days, the RWA sector has been performing the best. However, the prices of the sector's main tokens have barely changed!

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Save this image to understand Risk:Reward #education

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Real Money in Crypto Is Much Less Than Market Capitalization
Yes not so popular opinion! But

The actual amount of money invested in cryptocurrencies is significantly lower than the market capitalization. This is because market capitalization does not account for liquidity or the real volume of money that has been injected into an asset.

Let's turn on the logic.
Why Is Real Money Less Than Market Capitalization?
Early Investors and Low Entry Costs
Many cryptocurrencies were purchased at extremely low prices during their early stages. For example, was worth just a few cents in its early days but now trades for tens of thousands of dollars. Market capitalization reflects the current price, but the actual money invested was much lower.

Liquidity and Trading Volume
Not all coins are actively traded. A large portion is held in wallets and remains out of circulation. The real money in the market refers to the funds actively used for buying and selling on exchanges.

Speculation and Inflated Market Cap
Cryptocurrency prices are often inflated due to speculation, leading to an artificially high market capitalization. However, this does not represent the actual amount of money present in the system.

Estimating the Real Money in Crypto
It is difficult to determine the exact amount of real money in the crypto market, but rough estimates can be made:
I think that real money invested in crypto accounts for only 10-20% of the total market capitalization. This is because a large portion of the market cap consists of "paper profits" rather than actual invested funds.If the total crypto market capitalization is around $3 trillion, the real money in circulation could be between $300 billion and $600 billion.

Bitcoin as an Example
If Bitcoin’s market capitalization is $1 trillion, the real money invested in it might only be $100-200 billion.This discrepancy highlights how market cap can be misleading when assessing the actual liquidity and investment in the space. #BTC

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The Black Swan is a rare, unexpected event with a huge impact that, in hindsight, seems explainable. The term was popularized by Nassim Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

For traders, every correction is, in hindsight, questioned in chats—was this the Black Swan? But if you have read the book, you might have highlighted key points for yourself. If not, here are some of mine!

A Black Swan is something that has:

Unpredictability – No one expected its arrival.

A massive impact – It radically changes the situation.

Hindsight explainability – After the event, people find "logical" reasons for it.

Examples of Black Swans:

The 2008 financial crisis (the collapse of the U.S. housing market).

The 9/11 attacks in 2001 (terrorist attacks that changed global politics).

The COVID-19 pandemic (a blow to the economy, healthcare, and society).

Remember, post-factum, everyone finds a way to prove that whatever happened was predictable just by looking at the chart—because we dropped and filled some gap, took liquidity, or even better, tested one of a million randomly drawn trendlines! But this is all hindsight. Charts are later adjusted to explain an event that, at the time, seemed unimaginable!

Were there any Black Swans in 2023-2024-2025 (current)?

No! A Black Swan is not something everyone sits around expecting!

Some might think Trump's tariff hikes are a Black Swan. But no, absolutely not—Trump's rigid policies could have been predicted well in advance if you paid attention to what he was saying before taking office! The only difference is that few believed him, as people tend to think politicians’ words are often just empty campaign promises. But that turned out to be wrong.

Meanwhile, Europe is in shock, unsure of what to do. The world is changing rapidly, and it turns out Europe has nothing of its own—neither economically, nor militarily, nor in terms of resources!

Does every cycle need a Black Swan, after which the market rises from the ashes, flooded with freshly printed dollars, sending all tokens to the moon?

Of course not!

In my opinion, the next Black Swan will be exactly what I have spoken about before—the collapse of markets due to AI! It is hard to explain how this might happen, but I believe a massive AI failure could trigger a stock market crash, leading to a crypto market collapse. This could be the starting point of a bear market and a breakdown of the global uptrend on the weekly timeframe! But these are just my speculations!

The biggest risk is thinking there is no risk!

I’m sure this sounds familiar! When you think an altcoin has already bottomed—only for it to drop even further. When you take 2-3x leverage—only to get liquidated.

Key Lessons:

The biggest source of mistakes is blind faith in past experience!
This is classic for crypto "gurus"! They got into the market by sheer luck, happened to be early, threw $10,000 into this casino in 2018, and pulled out a few million dollars. Then, they built a fanbase by talking about , , SOL, and Doge simply because those were the hot topics. And by relying solely on historical charts and patterns, they built their so-called "expertise"!

But this "expertise" was beautifully shattered when it was proven that patterns alone don’t work. Some people believe that Bitcoin can never fall below a previous cycle’s high or that every cycle must last exactly 4 years—not 3, not 5. There are so many faulty assumptions like this!

If you don’t have a strategy that can survive chaos, you don’t have a strategy at all!
It’s crucial to have not just a Plan B, but also a Plan C, D, and E!

The desire for control creates an illusion of security.
Stability is not the absence of turmoil but the ability to withstand it.

If this topic interests you, I highly recommend reading the book—or better yet, listening to the audiobook!
That was my little moment of reflection.

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Key events this week

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Regarding the Situation with the President of Argentina

1. Every day, influencers launch hundreds of identical tokens on Solana, and people lose millions daily—yet no one seems to question the need for legal investigations! But if the president tweets about a token, then it’s automatically a scam? So, are we applying double standards based on the status of the person promoting the token?

2. What is this ridiculous information about the "team" behind the Libra token? What team exactly, and what did they even do? Did they just gather a focus group to come up with a name and ticker? Pressed two buttons to deploy a contract on Solana while paying $5 in gas fees? Why would a shitcoin—especially on Solana—even need a team? Maybe a marketing team at best?

3. How do people at Milei’s level even get involved in such nonsense? Either he was aware of the plan from the start, or he’s just an idiot, or maybe he doesn’t even run his own Twitter account—some "team" does.

4. People lost money! Yes, imagine that—99% of people lose money on meme tokens! Everyone acts so surprised as if this is something new. The only difference is that when people lose money on other tokens, they stay quiet about it because they’re too ashamed to admit their stupidity—falling for yet another dog-themed token and losing a couple of thousand dollars. But if you lose money on the president’s meme token, then suddenly it’s a scam? You were robbed? No, you’re just an idiot with a gambling addiction.

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ZkSync Price Prediction. ZK future. Yes who cares about the price if we are here for the blockchain and tech!

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Pnut Coin Price Prediction: Can Peanut Reach New Highs?

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