A Message to Market Newcomers: Adapting to a Changing Crypto Landscape
Friends, especially those who have recently entered the market! Let me be direct—previous cycles were easier. The 2020-2021 market, even with the COVID crash, now looks like a fairy tale. Back then, we had a quick -60% collapse, a rapid recovery, some sideways action, and within five months, new all-time highs across the board.
But today? Things are different. There are millions of tokens flooding the market, brutal sell-offs from funds right after listings, and—perhaps the most painful factor—time exhaustion.
So congratulations, newcomers! You’ve entered at a time you’ll never forget. This brutal experience will shape you, and I doubt anything will surprise you in the next cycle. Even seasoned veterans are panicking, unsure what to do. I wrote about this in 2023—this cycle is breaking old patterns, and even those who have been in the game for years are struggling to adapt.
Before, the formula was simple:
- Money flowed into Bitcoin.
- After a correction or sideways movement, dominance dropped.
-Liquidity moved to Ethereum.
- From Ethereum, altcoins pumped.
- The cycle ended with meme tokens.
Now? Bitcoin and meme tokens are leading the charge. Bitcoin dominance has been above 50% for over a year, and there's no clear sign of liquidity flowing into Ethereum. The old rules are gone. Adaptation is the only way forward.
Read this 2 posts
https://t.me/crypto4lightchats/15348
https://t.me/crypto4lightchats/15540
By 2028, new patterns will emerge. The market can’t fall forever—just like it can’t rise forever. If you’re holding assets, mark your exit points. For some, even breaking even may be the best move, and I’ll likely do the same on some positions.
I still believe in Spring 2025, but right now, be cautious. Avoid impulsive buys just because you think the bottom is close—after all, there could be another -90% drop after the "bottom."
Everything will improve—most likely. But remember how you feel now. Watch the market’s sentiment. When the panic fades and euphoria returns, recall this moment and understand that mastering emotions is just as important as mastering the charts.
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Friends, especially those who have recently entered the market! Let me be direct—previous cycles were easier. The 2020-2021 market, even with the COVID crash, now looks like a fairy tale. Back then, we had a quick -60% collapse, a rapid recovery, some sideways action, and within five months, new all-time highs across the board.
But today? Things are different. There are millions of tokens flooding the market, brutal sell-offs from funds right after listings, and—perhaps the most painful factor—time exhaustion.
So congratulations, newcomers! You’ve entered at a time you’ll never forget. This brutal experience will shape you, and I doubt anything will surprise you in the next cycle. Even seasoned veterans are panicking, unsure what to do. I wrote about this in 2023—this cycle is breaking old patterns, and even those who have been in the game for years are struggling to adapt.
Before, the formula was simple:
- Money flowed into Bitcoin.
- After a correction or sideways movement, dominance dropped.
-Liquidity moved to Ethereum.
- From Ethereum, altcoins pumped.
- The cycle ended with meme tokens.
Now? Bitcoin and meme tokens are leading the charge. Bitcoin dominance has been above 50% for over a year, and there's no clear sign of liquidity flowing into Ethereum. The old rules are gone. Adaptation is the only way forward.
Read this 2 posts
https://t.me/crypto4lightchats/15348
https://t.me/crypto4lightchats/15540
By 2028, new patterns will emerge. The market can’t fall forever—just like it can’t rise forever. If you’re holding assets, mark your exit points. For some, even breaking even may be the best move, and I’ll likely do the same on some positions.
I still believe in Spring 2025, but right now, be cautious. Avoid impulsive buys just because you think the bottom is close—after all, there could be another -90% drop after the "bottom."
Everything will improve—most likely. But remember how you feel now. Watch the market’s sentiment. When the panic fades and euphoria returns, recall this moment and understand that mastering emotions is just as important as mastering the charts.
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Who’s Selling BIO If There Was No Airdrop?
Absolutely right to question this shady tokenomics and fundraising structure—it's one of the biggest issues in the current cycle. Let's break it down.
If there was no retail investment before listing, but the token is being dumped on the market immediately, then logically, someone had pre-listing access to those tokens. And if it's not public investors, it's:
- Funds that got in at private rounds (often undisclosed).
- Exchanges themselves, which might have received an allocation.
- Project teams and insiders, sometimes distributing tokens to various wallets to dump unnoticed.
BIO Case—Suspicious Timeline
- Undisclosed Binance Labs investment (Nov 2024) 🤔
- Listing on Binance (Jan 2025) 💰
- 30% untracked allocation with a vesting period—but no way to verify what’s actually being unlocked and sold.
That’s exactly how they game the system. They publish a vesting schedule to make it look like they’re locked in, but in reality, tokens are being funneled to undisclosed wallets and slowly dumped.
How the Industry Became Rigged for Insiders
1. No Public Access to Early Rounds: Unlike ICOs, where anyone could participate, now only select funds/institutions get in before listing.
2. Airdrop Manipulation: Some teams fake decentralized distribution, but in reality, they control the wallets and dump on retail.
3. Untrackable Fund Wallets: Vesting schedules are just a formality—large investors can spread tokens across multiple addresses to hide sales.
4. Exchanges Are Complicit: They profit from trading fees and early investment rounds, so they have zero incentive to protect retail investors.
5. Insane FDVs: They list projects at crazy valuations ($1B+ FDV) because they know early investors will sell immediately and cash out.
Why Regulation is Needed
Back in the ICO days, things were at least transparent—anyone could join, and the process was public. Now, it’s all behind closed doors, controlled by a handful of funds and exchanges that sell directly to retail without disclosure.
This is why so many projects dump 70-90% post-listing—they’re just exit liquidity for insiders. And this cycle is much worse than previous ones.
If you’re not in the pre-listing round, you’re the exit liquidity for those who were. Always check tokenomics, early funding rounds, vesting schedules, and whether tokens are actually being locked—or just distributed in ways we can’t track.
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Absolutely right to question this shady tokenomics and fundraising structure—it's one of the biggest issues in the current cycle. Let's break it down.
If there was no retail investment before listing, but the token is being dumped on the market immediately, then logically, someone had pre-listing access to those tokens. And if it's not public investors, it's:
- Funds that got in at private rounds (often undisclosed).
- Exchanges themselves, which might have received an allocation.
- Project teams and insiders, sometimes distributing tokens to various wallets to dump unnoticed.
BIO Case—Suspicious Timeline
- Undisclosed Binance Labs investment (Nov 2024) 🤔
- Listing on Binance (Jan 2025) 💰
- 30% untracked allocation with a vesting period—but no way to verify what’s actually being unlocked and sold.
That’s exactly how they game the system. They publish a vesting schedule to make it look like they’re locked in, but in reality, tokens are being funneled to undisclosed wallets and slowly dumped.
How the Industry Became Rigged for Insiders
1. No Public Access to Early Rounds: Unlike ICOs, where anyone could participate, now only select funds/institutions get in before listing.
2. Airdrop Manipulation: Some teams fake decentralized distribution, but in reality, they control the wallets and dump on retail.
3. Untrackable Fund Wallets: Vesting schedules are just a formality—large investors can spread tokens across multiple addresses to hide sales.
4. Exchanges Are Complicit: They profit from trading fees and early investment rounds, so they have zero incentive to protect retail investors.
5. Insane FDVs: They list projects at crazy valuations ($1B+ FDV) because they know early investors will sell immediately and cash out.
Why Regulation is Needed
Back in the ICO days, things were at least transparent—anyone could join, and the process was public. Now, it’s all behind closed doors, controlled by a handful of funds and exchanges that sell directly to retail without disclosure.
This is why so many projects dump 70-90% post-listing—they’re just exit liquidity for insiders. And this cycle is much worse than previous ones.
If you’re not in the pre-listing round, you’re the exit liquidity for those who were. Always check tokenomics, early funding rounds, vesting schedules, and whether tokens are actually being locked—or just distributed in ways we can’t track.
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6👍5
Never say never! NOTcoin after 8 month came in first zone of interest! #notcoin #not
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5🐳3
if you want to see the altseason, visit the historical museum, myths and legends department #ALTSEASON 🫠😀
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👍9🤯8😎6✍2⚡1🐳1
Btc dominance max pain. On dydx example i can confirm utility tokens useless. 3 years in a range and dump under 0.60. Just can congrats the devs 🎉 Next days based on this tariffs wars between countries ill check again my tokens targets and mark a few new one to out at break even. keep your shields up friends. mentally and maybe physically such moments are hard to bear but the market teaches us all the same and each one differently 🤝
5👍11🤝8⚡3🔥3
$2.24 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. I think we've only seen this level of liquidation twice before—during the FTX and Luna crashes.
Everyone was expecting some kind of black swan event. Even I thought a market collapse could be triggered by worsening geopolitical tensions, a new banking crisis in the U.S., the closure or scam of Binance, a major hack of Ethereum protocols, a U.S. crypto ban—anything! But in the end, the crash happened because of Trump’s decision on tariffs.
Who could have predicted that? No one! This is another clear example that we work with probabilities on charts, not certainties. We simply cannot foresee every real-world event that could suddenly push markets up or down.
Tomorrow, Xi Jinping could make a new statement. The European Union might impose tariffs on U.S. products. Trade wars certainly aren’t good for anyone. But the funniest thing is—what do virtual tokens have to do with any of this? 😂
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Everyone was expecting some kind of black swan event. Even I thought a market collapse could be triggered by worsening geopolitical tensions, a new banking crisis in the U.S., the closure or scam of Binance, a major hack of Ethereum protocols, a U.S. crypto ban—anything! But in the end, the crash happened because of Trump’s decision on tariffs.
Who could have predicted that? No one! This is another clear example that we work with probabilities on charts, not certainties. We simply cannot foresee every real-world event that could suddenly push markets up or down.
Tomorrow, Xi Jinping could make a new statement. The European Union might impose tariffs on U.S. products. Trade wars certainly aren’t good for anyone. But the funniest thing is—what do virtual tokens have to do with any of this? 😂
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Key Events for This Week
In addition to trade wars, we have a few major events that will bring volatility! Time will tell whether the market moves up or down.
Right now, market sentiment is not just bearish—it looks like complete loss of faith in crypto. The mood is terrible, and maybe that’s exactly what the main players want to achieve! After all, here we have BlackRock, ETFs, and institutional moves behind the scenes.
At times like these, I always ask myself:
💭 What have "utility" projects been working so hard on for the last 3 years?
If after all that effort, their tokens are at historic bottoms, then what was the point?
🚨 Be careful with futures positions today, especially during the opening of the U.S. session!
🌍 I also expect a response from the European Union and China regarding Trump’s tariffs, which could trigger further market reactions!
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In addition to trade wars, we have a few major events that will bring volatility! Time will tell whether the market moves up or down.
Right now, market sentiment is not just bearish—it looks like complete loss of faith in crypto. The mood is terrible, and maybe that’s exactly what the main players want to achieve! After all, here we have BlackRock, ETFs, and institutional moves behind the scenes.
At times like these, I always ask myself:
💭 What have "utility" projects been working so hard on for the last 3 years?
If after all that effort, their tokens are at historic bottoms, then what was the point?
🚨 Be careful with futures positions today, especially during the opening of the U.S. session!
🌍 I also expect a response from the European Union and China regarding Trump’s tariffs, which could trigger further market reactions!
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My top investment mistakes in this cycle!
Since the portfolio is formed, I can say for sure that this is
BBL / Venom / XCH / GENE and probably DYDX because wasted time with this coin in a range.!🙃
Yes, mistakes happened
Mistakes happen, the example with BBL is a great example that if there are large funds on board and a beautiful token idea, it means nothing! Venom, the same story) Entry points for venom and dydx of course imply possible profit since I bought low but the price still went more than -50%, then with bbl and chia it is most likely not a fact that I will even break even! Gene if they present anything at all about the game with their Tamagotchi)) maybe I'll be lucky enough to break even!
Break even for me would mean the possibility of a lucky chance to leave the token at 0 or with minimal losses, and even if the token continues to grow further, I won't look at this asset! Never again
Good experience that can be measured in numbers equivalent to USD)
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Since the portfolio is formed, I can say for sure that this is
BBL / Venom / XCH / GENE and probably DYDX because wasted time with this coin in a range.!
Yes, mistakes happened
Mistakes happen, the example with BBL is a great example that if there are large funds on board and a beautiful token idea, it means nothing! Venom, the same story) Entry points for venom and dydx of course imply possible profit since I bought low but the price still went more than -50%, then with bbl and chia it is most likely not a fact that I will even break even! Gene if they present anything at all about the game with their Tamagotchi)) maybe I'll be lucky enough to break even!
Break even for me would mean the possibility of a lucky chance to leave the token at 0 or with minimal losses, and even if the token continues to grow further, I won't look at this asset! Never again
Good experience that can be measured in numbers equivalent to USD)
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Guys TradingView launched new The Leap competition! Where we can trade paper account and with prizes (real money or tradingview free plan upgrades)!
Its a demo accounts so youll loose nothing, but can practice
https://www.tradingview.com/the-leap/
Its a demo accounts so youll loose nothing, but can practice
https://www.tradingview.com/the-leap/
5👍4
BTC and ETH on USA session open today and this week
🖤 NY opening
🖤 fund reaction
🖤 ETH close 50% of the wick that was left below or sweep that low and go close the GAPs above
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5👍5
Recommend you to read about tariffs!
📈 - https://x.com/dgt10011/status/1886125163642552606
My targets for BTC personally for me relevant! For Alts also ETH/BTC pair targets, Btc dominance also.
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My targets for BTC personally for me relevant! For Alts also ETH/BTC pair targets, Btc dominance also.
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6👍5🔥4
First video was in August! In February we came to the zone of interest! Remember three things
1 - old patterns of asset behavior on the crypto market do not work, adapt
2 - Binance, Upbit listings are sales, not purchases
3 - IAP model works in 90% of cases
🟥 Watch FULL video now🟥
https://youtu.be/3Y1MwRvn30c
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1 - old patterns of asset behavior on the crypto market do not work, adapt
2 - Binance, Upbit listings are sales, not purchases
3 - IAP model works in 90% of cases
https://youtu.be/3Y1MwRvn30c
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5👍1
Updates for #Rune
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https://youtu.be/ETFZJa5kPGY
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5👍2
Worldcoin updates #wld #worldcoin
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5👍3
FTX will begin paying creditors on February 18
This is the Bahamian branch of the company.
Payments will be received by users who have claims of no more than $50,000. The rest will receive the money later.
I wouldn’t be surprised why, only now, after two years, people are miraculously starting to get their funds back—and only gradually!
Imagine yourself as a crypto investor who had their funds frozen on a scam exchange. When their assets were locked, Bitcoin was worth $16,000–$20,000. They watched helplessly as the market took off without them.
Now, they suddenly have the chance to recover $20,000–$50,000. What’s the first thing they’ll do? Most likely, they’ve already come to terms with their loss and covered their expenses over the past two years. So, they won’t use this money for their everyday life. Instead, they’ll pour it back into the crypto market—because they still want to make a profit!
At first, they won’t invest the full amount, but once they see potential market growth in the spring, not only will they reinvest those recovered funds, but they’ll likely add even more!
Then, around May or perhaps after summer, the bulk of the funds will start being returned to other investors. And those amounts will be even larger! Now, imagine what those investors will do—they’ll throw their money back into the market again! But this time, they’ll be entering a falling market, and they’ll suffer the most. Imagine waiting three years for a payout from a collapsed exchange, reinvesting in crypto, only to lose everything again—it would be devastating!
Two key emotions will be at play here:
Fear of missing out (FOMO)—"Everyone else made money, but I didn’t!"
Frustration and revenge trading—A desperate urge to make up for losses and punish this damn casino!
So, after the 18th, we’ll start seeing new (or rather, old) liquidity entering the market—the kind that has been missing for a proper rally. I expect some positive news to follow around that time.
Let’s just hope that the 10,000 armed Mexicans at the U.S. border don’t start a shootout! I assume you're keeping an eye on macro news?
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This is the Bahamian branch of the company.
Payments will be received by users who have claims of no more than $50,000. The rest will receive the money later.
I wouldn’t be surprised why, only now, after two years, people are miraculously starting to get their funds back—and only gradually!
Imagine yourself as a crypto investor who had their funds frozen on a scam exchange. When their assets were locked, Bitcoin was worth $16,000–$20,000. They watched helplessly as the market took off without them.
Now, they suddenly have the chance to recover $20,000–$50,000. What’s the first thing they’ll do? Most likely, they’ve already come to terms with their loss and covered their expenses over the past two years. So, they won’t use this money for their everyday life. Instead, they’ll pour it back into the crypto market—because they still want to make a profit!
At first, they won’t invest the full amount, but once they see potential market growth in the spring, not only will they reinvest those recovered funds, but they’ll likely add even more!
Then, around May or perhaps after summer, the bulk of the funds will start being returned to other investors. And those amounts will be even larger! Now, imagine what those investors will do—they’ll throw their money back into the market again! But this time, they’ll be entering a falling market, and they’ll suffer the most. Imagine waiting three years for a payout from a collapsed exchange, reinvesting in crypto, only to lose everything again—it would be devastating!
Two key emotions will be at play here:
Fear of missing out (FOMO)—"Everyone else made money, but I didn’t!"
Frustration and revenge trading—A desperate urge to make up for losses and punish this damn casino!
So, after the 18th, we’ll start seeing new (or rather, old) liquidity entering the market—the kind that has been missing for a proper rally. I expect some positive news to follow around that time.
Let’s just hope that the 10,000 armed Mexicans at the U.S. border don’t start a shootout! I assume you're keeping an eye on macro news?
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If I Had Only $1,000, These Are the 5 Cryptos I’d Bet On!
Don't take this video as financial advice. I've already posted detailed analyses of all these tokens. I just want to see what potential gains these five could offer if I were starting from scratch.
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https://youtu.be/M4c1XXeUXbk
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Don't take this video as financial advice. I've already posted detailed analyses of all these tokens. I just want to see what potential gains these five could offer if I were starting from scratch.
https://youtu.be/M4c1XXeUXbk
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If you want to visualize liquidity and understand why this "season" is different, imagine the market as a giant funnel:
1. Liquidity Flow Has Changed – Unlike previous cycles, where retail money poured in freely, this time institutions, funds, and insiders control the majority of capital. The easy retail-driven pumps are less frequent.
2. Distribution Over Hype – Before, hype alone could send alts to new all-time highs (ATH). Now, many tokens have high FDVs (fully diluted valuations), meaning early investors and insiders have large, unlocked bags to offload on retail.
3. Exit Liquidity is Scarce – If everyone is waiting for ATHs, who will be the new buyers? If the expectation is that altcoins will "eventually" reach previous highs, liquidity might not be there to support it at the levels traders hope for.
Key Differences This Cycle
- ETF-driven liquidity – Bitcoin dominance remains high, with institutional demand focused on BTC and ETH rather than speculative alts.
- Retail participation is weaker – Less fresh capital is entering the market compared to previous bull runs.
- Macro uncertainty – Trade wars, interest rate policy, and liquidity tightening affect overall market flows.
🔍 In 2022 marked, unfortunally during bull run (and yeas we are in a bull run but not in altseason) people will loose the same amount of money like in bear market! And marked not all alts will hit new ath! Showed million times examples on Dash, Iota, BCH (open charts 2018-2021) If you're waiting for every altcoin to reach new ATHs, it might be time to adjust your expectations. Liquidity isn't infinite, and this cycle's mechanics are fundamentally different. Better finish cycle with smaller profit but in profit than wait x100 for each token and stuck for next 3 years!
For newbies who perceives any non-native post as bearish and capitulation (its not a bearish post, no i dont think its an end of cycle)
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1. Liquidity Flow Has Changed – Unlike previous cycles, where retail money poured in freely, this time institutions, funds, and insiders control the majority of capital. The easy retail-driven pumps are less frequent.
2. Distribution Over Hype – Before, hype alone could send alts to new all-time highs (ATH). Now, many tokens have high FDVs (fully diluted valuations), meaning early investors and insiders have large, unlocked bags to offload on retail.
3. Exit Liquidity is Scarce – If everyone is waiting for ATHs, who will be the new buyers? If the expectation is that altcoins will "eventually" reach previous highs, liquidity might not be there to support it at the levels traders hope for.
Key Differences This Cycle
- ETF-driven liquidity – Bitcoin dominance remains high, with institutional demand focused on BTC and ETH rather than speculative alts.
- Retail participation is weaker – Less fresh capital is entering the market compared to previous bull runs.
- Macro uncertainty – Trade wars, interest rate policy, and liquidity tightening affect overall market flows.
🔍 In 2022 marked, unfortunally during bull run (and yeas we are in a bull run but not in altseason) people will loose the same amount of money like in bear market! And marked not all alts will hit new ath! Showed million times examples on Dash, Iota, BCH (open charts 2018-2021) If you're waiting for every altcoin to reach new ATHs, it might be time to adjust your expectations. Liquidity isn't infinite, and this cycle's mechanics are fundamentally different. Better finish cycle with smaller profit but in profit than wait x100 for each token and stuck for next 3 years!
For newbies who perceives any non-native post as bearish and capitulation (its not a bearish post, no i dont think its an end of cycle)
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6👍15✍3
Take some time to watch the entire 40-minute podcast from start to finish! You can play it in the background and listen to the insights. Buy, hold, and sell are no longer as simple as they used to be! I'll share my thoughts on what I would do, what I am doing, and what I plan to do. Developing a strategy for investing in the crypto market right now—including the psychology behind investing. #education #crypto #podcast
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https://youtu.be/Aq27OQeenqQ
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