A few Points About the Market Situation now

Social Media Noise and Herd Mentality
People live and make decisions based on the noise they hear on social media. It’s always been this way. There are so-called opinion leaders who often understand the market no better than the average trader, but they have more money and influence. They push narratives and recycle old ideas. Remember when everyone was screaming that Bitcoin would never fall below its previous high of $19K? We calmly went to $15,500, debunking that myth. Yet, those same "gurus" came up with endless explanations, blaming manipulation, instead of simply admitting they were wrong.
Similar patterns emerged with the halving narrative: “Bitcoin has never set a new high before a halving.” This time, the "experts" were wrong again. Their random predictions based on past patterns didn’t work, but they found a new explanation—this time, it’s all about ETFs.

The ETF Hype
The crowd was waiting for ETFs, thinking institutions would swoop in, buying Bitcoin and altcoins at high prices, while they were “smart” for filling bags with altcoins beforehand. Now, many of these traders are sitting with a -90% loss on altcoins, while Bitcoin dominance has been rising for over two years. Institutional liquidity hasn’t flowed into altcoins, which, let’s be honest, are just glorified “poocoins” with fancier branding.
The problem? Unrealistic expectations of miracles and a “supercycle,” a narrative pushed for two years by people who just want to break even. The market is oversaturated with tokens, but more tokens don’t mean more players or liquidity. No new money is being printed; it’s just rotating from one token to another, draining gambler wallets.

Timing Expectations
If you’re an investor choosing a startup (and yes, any token is essentially a startup or a money-laundering scheme), invest knowing it can fail at any moment. Don’t fool yourself into thinking fundamentals are everything—they’re just a fancy wrapper. Take or CHIA as examples: their fundamentals were the same when they were $500 and $1,500, yet now they’re $3 and $17, respectively.
Charts don’t lie. Fundamentals don’t guarantee success. If you’re investing, don’t tie yourself to specific timelines. Set alerts for your zones of interest and wait. If you’re trading, trade wisely and with a strategy. And don’t forget the importance of stop losses. Any “internet coin” can be delisted by exchanges or regulators at any moment. The fundamentals will remain the same, but without liquidity, there’s no interest.

Cycles Are Always Different
Don’t blindly assume crypto will grow “just because it’s crypto.” It’s not 2017 anymore. The idea that everything grows just because it exists is outdated. Funds are here to make money. They launch countless airdrop projects, participate in seed rounds, and then dump tokens post-listing. Projects often have a suspicious “untracked allocation” note, which typically exceeds 30%.
A perfect example is BBL. Despite claims of locked allocations, tokens magically find their way into circulation, with prices tanking below listing levels. How? Anonymous wallets slowly sell off tokens, feeding ideas of future SocialFi innovations. I fell for one of these ideas too—lesson learned.

Will There Be an Altseason?
There will be, but the question is when. Looking at ETH/BTC charts, it’s clear where price levels might stop and where they could bounce. On a bull market, as many people will lose money as they did in the bear market—I’ve been saying this since 2022.
The hardest part isn’t buying or holding through a drawdown; it’s selling. Most traders have no idea where to sell. And when you’re in a good profit and everyone around you is screaming “to the moon,” it’s tough to summon the courage to press “sell.” And when you're in a good plus, when everyone around you supports you with posts, you're unlikely to muster up the courage to click sell! You'll wait! For what? Who knows! Probably a million from the 100 dollars invested! After all, these are the kinds of stories we're usually told! It's beautiful!

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