Интересная деталь: весь прошлый месяц шортистов было заметно больше, чем лонгистов. Но сейчас ситуация постепенно начинает меняться. Трейдеры снова начинают набирать лонги, и под текущей ценой уже накопилось более $500 млн потенциальных ликвидаций.

Поэтому сейчас я бы не исключал

ещё одного неприятного выноса

для тех, кто слишком рано поверил в разворот.

Longists are starting to believe in the market again

An interesting detail: over the past month, there were noticeably more shorts than longists. But now the situation is gradually starting to change. Traders are starting to gain long positions again, and more than $500 million of potential liquidations have already accumulated under the current price.

On the one hand, this is not much compared to the billions of shorts that are above.
But on the other hand, this is quite enough for the market to first decide to collect exactly this liquidity.

Therefore, now I would not rule out another unpleasant takeaway for those who believed in the reversal too early.

The market likes to punish haste! What do you think will be collected first?

Лично я по-прежнему допускаю сценарий с ложным пробоем вверх, после которого рынок быстро вернётся обратно и протестирует поддержку ещё раз.

There are no surprises for BTC yet

The price continues to hold near $63.8k, but buyers still cannot confidently push through the resistance.

Personally, I still accept a scenario with a false breakout, after which the market will quickly return and test the support again.

Until we see a consolidation above $64k on the daily timeframe, for me, the priority remains for the correction. The market looks too calm right now, and such a lull usually doesn't last long.

ликвидности сверху всё ещё больше, а значит сценарий с хорошим шорт-сквизом никуда не исчез.

Но локально я бы не удивился ещё одному неприятному движению вниз перед продолжением роста.

Why wouldn't I rush into BTC longs!

Until recently, the market was heavily skewed towards shorts, but now the situation is gradually changing. Recently, many new long positions have entered the market, and some of the liquidity has already accumulated very close to the current price.

That's why opening a long account right now doesn't seem like the safest idea. It may be more profitable for the market to go lower first, collect these stops and only then move on.

At the same time, the global picture remains interesting:
there is still more liquidity from above, which means that the scenario with a good short-squeeze has not disappeared.

But locally, I would not be surprised at another unpleasant downward movement before continuing growth.

What do you think we'll see first?

Один из крупных держателей перевёл на Binance более 43 000 Ethereum, что по текущим ценам составляет около $75 млн. Обычно такие переводы заставляют рынок напрячься, потому что нередко они предшествуют продаже актива.

A large transfer of ETH to the exchange attracted the attention of the market

One of the major holders has transferred more than 43,000 Ethereum to Binance, which at current prices is about $75 million. Usually, such transfers make the market tense, because they often precede the sale of an asset.

It is also interesting that, according to on-chain data, this position is still in serious decline. If the investor really decides to capitulate and fix the loss, the market may receive additional pressure from sellers.

Of course, transferring to the stock exchange does not mean selling. But such movements of major players should always be kept in mind. Personally, I would not rush to averaging now and wait for the market to digest this volume.

What do you think the whale is doing?

🔗 Глава CryptoQuant считает, что эпоха, когда альты росли просто вслед за Bitcoin, может постепенно уходить в прошлое.

It looks like the viola market is really changing!

The head of CryptoQuant believes that the era when altos grew simply following Bitcoin may gradually become a thing of the past.

Previously, everything was relatively simple: BTC is growing → capital is flowing into alts → alts are showing even stronger growth. Now this scheme is working worse and worse. In recent months, we have seen weak inflows into altcoins and a continued outflow of capital from many old projects.

And if this trend continues, then not everyone will survive in the new cycle. Investors will choose projects more carefully, and the mere fact of the coin's existence may no longer be enough for growth. In fact, the market is gradually shifting from the principle of "everything is growing" to the principle of "the best are growing".

Do you think we'll see the classic altseason again?

Деньги действительно заходят в альты, только не во все подряд. Растут в основном отдельные сильные проекты с хорошим нарративом и ликвидностью. А вот большое количество старых монет по-прежнему остаётся под давлением и даже обновляет минимумы. Поэтому пока это больше похоже не на классический альтсезон, а на рынок выборочных победителей.

Not everything that grows is the altseason!

Now many are starting to talk about the beginning of the altseason, because almost half of the coins in the top 50 have performed better than Bitcoin in recent months. But if you look deeper, the picture looks a little different!

Money does go into altos, but not into everything. Mostly individual strong projects with a good narrative and liquidity are growing. But a large number of old coins are still under pressure and even updating the lows. Therefore, for now it looks more like a market of selective winners rather than a classic altseason.

In my opinion, the real altseason will begin when not individual projects, but a large part of the market will start earning. In the meantime, you have to choose coins much more carefully than in previous cycles.

What do you think about the current alt market?

Конечно, история не обязана повторяться один в один. Но такие закономерности всегда интересно держать в голове, особенно когда настроение на рынке остаётся довольно осторожным. Лично я думаю, что июль вполне может оказаться намного интереснее предыдущего месяца. Главное — не ждать, что рынок сразу полетит без откатов. Волатильность ещё наверняка никуда не денется.

Well, friends, July has arrived!

The new month starts with some pretty interesting statistics. If you look at the history of Bitcoin since 2013, then the "red" June was very often followed by the "green" July.

Of course, history doesn't have to repeat itself one-on-one. But such patterns are always interesting to keep in mind, especially when the market mood remains rather cautious. Personally, I think July may well turn out to be much more interesting than the previous month. The main thing is not to expect that the market will immediately fly without rollbacks. Volatility is definitely not going anywhere yet.

Let's see if July justifies its historical statistics this time.

What do you think this month will be like?

🇺🇸 Среда — публикация протокола прошлого заседания ФРС. Рынок будет искать любые намёки на дальнейшую политику регулятора.
🇺🇸 Четверг — традиционные данные по заявкам на пособие по безработице и свежий баланс ФРС.
🇬🇧 Пятница и суббота — конференция Arbitrum Open House, где могут появиться интересные новости по экосистеме.

Have a good evening and have a productive week!

If you look at the calendar, the beginning of the week promises to be quite calm. The really interesting events start only on Wednesday. What we keep in focus:
Wednesday - publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting. The market will be looking for any hints on the future policy of the regulator.
Thursday — traditional data on applications for unemployment benefits and the Fed's fresh balance sheet.
Friday and Saturday - the Arbitrum Open House conference, where interesting news on the ecosystem may appear.

So you can safely devote the first few days to market analysis, but closer to the middle of the week, volatility may well start to grow!

Who has any plans for this week?

Когда монеты массово выводят с бирж, это обычно говорит о том, что инвесторы не собираются продавать их в ближайшее время. Они переводят активы на холодные кошельки и делают ставку на долгосрочное хранение. Конечно, это не означает, что завтра рынок обязательно начнёт расти. Но такие вещи часто становятся фундаментом, который заметен только спустя время.

Иногда самые сильные сигналы появляются не на графике цены, а именно в поведении крупных участников рынка.

While many people are only watching the price, the market is giving a more important signal!

Stocks of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges continue to decline. For BTC, this has been the minimum since 2017, and for ETH, it has been the same since 2015.

Why do I personally pay attention to this?
When coins are massively withdrawn from exchanges, it usually means that investors are not going to sell them in the near future. They transfer assets to cold wallets and rely on long-term storage. Of course, this does not mean that the market will necessarily start growing tomorrow. But such things often become the foundation, which is noticeable only after a while.

Sometimes the strongest signals do not appear on the price chart, but rather in the behavior of large market participants.

What are your thoughts on this?)

Думаю многие сталкивались с тем, что сейчас сложно оплатить зарубежные сервисы, оформить подписку или спокойно расплатиться за границей без лишних заморочек. Я нашел идеальный вариант, который решает сразу все эти проблемы и причем сейчас еще с очень хорошей скидкой!

Конечно, никто не может гарантировать, что история снова повторится. Сегодня на рынке уже есть ETF, институциональные инвесторы и совсем другой уровень капитала. Но именно такие вещи я люблю держать в голове. Не потому что они дают точный прогноз, а потому что помогают лучше понимать, где мы можем находиться внутри большого цикла.

Лично я считаю, что циклы не исчезают — они лишь немного меняют форму. Поэтому полностью игнорировать подобную статистику точно не стоит!!

What if the market is moving according to the same scenario all the time?

There is one pattern that has been attracting attention for more than a decade! Almost every Bitcoin cycle follows a very similar structure.: first, a long growth phase, and then about a year of full-fledged correction.

Of course, no one can guarantee that history will repeat itself again. Today, there are already ETFs, institutional investors, and a completely different level of capital on the market. But that's the kind of thing I like to keep in mind. Not because they provide an accurate forecast, but because they help us better understand where we may be inside a large cycle. Personally, I think that cycles don't disappear — they just change shape a bit. Therefore, it is definitely not worth ignoring such statistics completely!!

Do you generally believe that the BTC market is still moving in cycles, or do you think that past models have already stopped working?

Промокод вводится прямо при выпуске карты в разделе «Сервисы → Маркет карт». Сам давно искал что-то подобное, поэтому решил сразу поделиться с вами 🤝