В свежем эссе Артур Хейс выкатил прогноз, от которого могут закружиться головы даже у ветеранов крипторынка. Его главный тезис - стейблкоины, выпускаемые крупнейшими банками США, становятся новым инструментом скрытого печатного станка. Но не ФРС, а самих банков. Разбираем суть.

Получение доступа к

$5,5 трлн

ликвидности через выпуск безопасных стейблов.

И нет, не Пауэлл разгонит рынок. А

Скотт Бессент

и

Wall Street

.

Hayes is back with us. And not without fire again.

In a fresh essay, Arthur Hayes rolled out a prediction that could make even veterans of the crypto market dizzy. His main thesis is that steiblcoins, issued by the largest banks in the United States, are becoming a new tool of the hidden printing press. But not the Fed, but the banks themselves. Breaking down the gist of it.

What is Hayes proposing?
Quid Pro Stablecoin is what he calls a model in which banks issue their own stables backed by T-bills (US government debt). You get the effect of dark QE, without the noise, inflationary arguments and resonance in the stock markets.

It's not the Fed turning on the machine. It's JPMorgan pushing the button.

Why do banks benefit from this?
Reduced compliance and IT costs (estimated up to $20 billion in savings per year).

Gaining access to $5.5 trillion in liquidity through issuance of safe staples.

Participating in the creation of a new financial landscape where bank = payment system + treasury + DeFi hub.

The GENIUS Act is the entry ticket
Future legislation will likely sweep the field clean of uncontrolled USDC-type stables by limiting issuance to only those with a banking license. And guess who's at the top of the list? That's right - JPM, BoA, Citi.

Hayes argues: small fintechs won't survive, the giants with government guarantees will win.

Potential
Bank capitalization could grow from $2.1 trillion to $3.9 trillion if the market starts to take into account returns from staples.

Stablecoins will open the floodgates of liquidity into crypto. Straight from treasuries to BTC and ETH.

BTC: $90K → $1M?
Short term correction? Possibly. But according to Hayes, an influx of liquidity through new instruments is the way to $1,000,000 per BTC by 2028.

And no, it won't be Powell who will drive the market up. It's Scott Bessent and Wall Street.

This game isn't just betting on bitcoin. Bet it also on those who print new money. And that money has a banking license.

🪙 BTC: $108 107 (-0.51%)

🪙 ETH: $2 521 (-0.35%)

🪙 BNB: $654 (-0.08%)

🪙 SOL: $147 (-1.41%)

Happy weekend, friends!

BTC: $108,107 (-0.51%)

ETH: $2,521 (-0.35%)

BNB: $654 (-0.08%)

SOL: $147 (-1.41%)

The crypto world is slow but alert on the weekend. There is a fluctuation, but there is no panic)

What are your plans for the weekend?

> Инвесторы заняли выжидательную позицию - активность гаснет, новостей много, но решений пока нет.
> Цены консолидируются, но сетевой импульс ослабевает. И это важный момент: когда цена стоит, а интерес падает - рынок теряет топливо.
> Возможен сценарий накопления перед всплеском - подобное уже видели в 2020 и 2023.

Volumes are stalling. Is the market on pause?

While bitcoin is holding above $100k, things are not so chipper under the hood. According to Glassnode, exchange activity has been on the decline since early June, with average monthly trading volume falling to $5.9 billion. And while that's still above the yearly average ($5.5 billion), the gap is only 7% (an indicator of sluggishness).

What this could mean:

> Investors have taken a wait-and-see stance - activity is muted, news is plentiful, but there are no decisions yet.
> Prices are consolidating, but the network momentum is weakening. And this is an important point: when the price stands and interest falls, the market loses fuel.
> A scenario of accumulation before a surge is possible - we have already seen this in 2020 and 2023.

In such periods, the market is particularly sensitive to news and reports. One announcement and the movement will be dramatic. In the meantime, a lull in which the next big decision takes shape.

Are you ready for the market to pick a direction when everyone yawns?

🪙 BTC: $108 019 (-0.06%)

🪙 ETH: $2 511 (-0.40%)

🪙 BNB: $654 (-0.20%)

🪙 SOL: $147 (+0.02%)

The weekend is in full swing!

BTC: $108,019 (-0.06%)

ETH: $2,511 (-0.40%)

BNB: $654 (-0.20%)

SOL: $147 (+0.02%)
According to the data, the market is in a light red zone, and volatility will be minimal over the weekend, so you can spend the weekend out of the market))

How will you spend your day today, or who will be trading?)

> С июля 2024 объём BTC у кошельков от 100 до 1,000 BTC (так называемые «молодые киты», включая фонды, компании, частные институционалы) вырос с 3.9 млн до 4.76 млн BTC - это огромная концентрация.

> Напротив, крупные и старые держатели (1k–10k BTC) постепенно сокращают запасы.

- ранние майнеры, OG и старые деньги выходят,

- на их место приходят фонды, институции, ETF и госструктуры.

"BlackRock же покупает BTC!"

Но по факту это их клиенты, те самые новые хомяки. Это как думать, что сам

Uber

ест всю еду, заказанную в

Uber Eats

.

Рынок входит в фазу агрессивного распределения. И если история повторится, следующим звеном в цепочке будут альткоины. Финал бычьего цикла почти всегда проходит именно там, на массовом

FOMO

и переоценке хайпа.

The whales are getting active. Someone starts the final act?

On the background of seeming calmness on the market, an important signal - 5 wallets with 10,000 BTC each since 2011 have woken up. These addresses have not moved for almost 15 years and suddenly started to move within a day. Coincidence?

At the same time:

> Since July 2024, the BTC volume of wallets between 100 and 1,000 BTC (so-called “young whales” including funds, companies, private institutions) has grown from 3.9 million to 4.76 million BTC - a huge concentration.

> In contrast, large and old holders (1k-10k BTC) are gradually reducing holdings.

This is the redistribution:

- early miners, OG and old money are exiting,

- replaced by funds, institutions, ETFs and government agencies.

It's a classic end of the cycle: those who bought at the bottom are fixing, and newcomers are coming in on the hay, but through sophisticated ETF-wrapped instruments.

- Some might say:

“BlackRock buys BTC!”
But in fact it's their customers, the very new hamsters. It's like thinking that Uber itself eats all the food ordered from Uber Eats.

The market is entering a phase of aggressive distribution. And if history repeats itself, the next link in the chain will be altcoins. The finale of a bull cycle almost always takes place there, on massive FOMO and reassessment of the hype.

🪙 BTC: $108 982 (+0.81%)

🪙 ETH: $2 576 (+2.21%)

🪙 BNB: $662 (+1.17%)

🪙 SOL: $152 (+2.65%)

Happy New Week, Friends!

New week - new opportunities!
BTC: $108 982 (+0.81%)

ETH: $2 576 (+2.21%)

BNB: $662 (+1.17%)

SOL: $152 (+2.65%)

The crypto world expects clarity at the beginning of the week. It's not the right time for aggressive entries, especially with leverage. It's better to wait for reports or new signal news.

What are your plans for the week?

- Тарифы варьируются от 10% до 70%, в зависимости от страны и категории товаров
- Письма будут отправлены уже сегодня (7 июля)
- Новые пошлины вступят в силу 1 августа 2025, после 90-дневного "переходного окна"

🇬🇧

Сделка с Великобританией заключена: базовая ставка 10%, с возможностью льгот

🇻🇳

Вьетнам получил смягчение — 20% вместо потенциальных 46%

🇮🇳

С Индией всё сложно — сельхозвопросы остаются камнем преткновения

> Риски глобального замедления. Тарифы = рост издержек, снижение спроса

> Угроза инфляции в США - импорт подорожает, а это значит, ФРС может быть вынуждена держать ставку дольше

> Позитив для крипты? В моменты геоэкономической напряжённости спрос на альтернативные активы (BTC, золото) исторически усиливается

Tariff season begins: Trump deploys trade artillery

Global trade seems to be entering a phase of high turbulence again. On Friday night, Donald Trump announced that he has signed letters to 12 countries outlining future tariff rates on their exports to the US.

- The tariffs range from 10% to 70%, depending on the country and product category
- The letters will be sent as early as today (July 7)
- The new duties will take effect on August 1, 2025, after a 90-day transition window

Trump didn't specify who exactly is on the list, but we do know that negotiations with Japan, the EU and India have stalled.

UK deal done: prime rate of 10%, with the possibility of incentives
Vietnam gets easing - 20% instead of potential 46%
Things are complicated with India - agricultural issues remain a stumbling block

Why it matters to markets:

> Risks of a global slowdown. Tariffs = higher costs, lower demand

> US inflation threat - imports will get more expensive, which means the Fed may be forced to keep the rate longer

> A positive for crypto? In times of geo-economic tensions, demand for alternative assets (BTC, gold) has historically increased

Watch the list of countries, the markets will get specifics and most likely a spike in volatility. Good luck in the market!

🪙 BTC: $108 212 (-0.70%)

🪙 ETH: $2 552 (-0.70%)

🪙 BNB: $659 (-0.30%)

🪙 SOL: $149 (-1.54%)

🌐

Капитализация рынка: $3.33T

💸

Объём за 24ч: $100B

🔗

Объём DeFi: $31B

🪙

Стейблкоины: $265B

👑

Доминация BTC: 64.5%

Good day, crypto gang!

Main coins:
BTC: $108,212 (-0.70%)

ETH: $2,552 (-0.70%)

BNB: $659 (-0.30%)

SOL: $149 (-1.54%)

Global indicators:
Market capitalization: $3.33T

24-hour volume: $100B

DeFi volume: $31B

Stablecoins: $265B

BTC dominance: 64.5%

What are your plans for the day?

Strive (CeFi) - $750M

Twenty One Capital - $585M

Securitize - $400M

Kalshi, Auradine, ZenMEV - $135M–$185M

While retail is hesitating, funds are attacking!

June ended the second quarter with a strong finish: according to CryptoRank, over $5.14 billion was raised during Q2 2025 - an all-time record in recent years.

Amid general market apathy on the part of retail participants, institutional investors are not just active, they are super optimistic.

Large rounds are closing on projects such as:

Strive (CeFi) - $750M

Twenty One Capital - $585M

Securitize - $400M

Kalshi, Auradine, ZenMEV - $135M-$185M

The irony is that while most are waiting “from below”, the big players are building infrastructure and pouring billions into future leaders. Let's not forget “money always goes where growth is expected”.

History teaches, the reversal begins when the crowd turns away and the insiders silently buy in. Q2 seems to have given a very loud hint...

🪙 BTC: $108 766 (+0.28%)

🪙 ETH: $2 619 (+2.47%)

🪙 BNB: $662 (+0.21%)

🪙 SOL: $152 (+1.87%)

Биткоин уверенно держится выше $105K, ETH показывает самый большой рост за 24 часа!

Good morning, friends!

The market looks like this:
BTC: $108,766 (+0.28%)

ETH: $2,619 (+2.47%)

BNB: $662 (+0.21%)

SOL: $152 (+1.87%)

Bitcoin is confidently holding above $105K, and ETH is showing the biggest growth in 24 hours!

What are your plans for trading or relaxing?

Зона поддержки - $2500

Первое сопротивление - $2600–2660

Ключевой барьер - $2730

Ethereum ETFs, confidence not in words, but in inflows

While the market argues about the short-term, spot ETH ETFs have recorded net inflows for the eighth consecutive week, cumulatively over 61,000 ETH, according to Glassnode data. And it's no longer just a spike in interest, but a sustainable institutional dynamic.

Such regular inflows from funds, a clear signal that the big players see Ethereum as not just an altcoin, but an infrastructure asset with a future. Not speculation, but convinced buys.

Technically:

Support zone - $2500

First resistance - $2600-2660

Key barrier - $2730.

While retail continues to guess “where will the price go”, funds are doing what they know how to do - accumulate regularly while it's cheaper. Good luck in the market!

🪙 BTC: $111 386 (+2.39%)

🪙 ETH: $2 813 (+6.97%)

🪙 BNB: $671 (+1.34%)

🪙 SOL: $158 (+3.42%)

Рынок показал хороший рост! Конечно ещё не время для агрессивных входов, но если вы уже в LONG, то нужно поставить стопы ближе к входу!

It's the middle of the week, friends!

BTC: $111,386 (+2.39%)

ETH: $2,813 (+6.97%)

BNB: $671 (+1.34%)

SOL: $158 (+3.42%)

The crypto world showed good growth in the middle of the week! Of course it's not the time for aggressive entries, especially with leverage, if you are already in LONG, then you need to put stops closer to the entry!

🎁

🎁

🎁

🎁

🎁

Share, who managed to grab gifts with Snoop Dogg? Unfortunately I didn't, they were sold out in 1-2 minutes((

- Крупные держатели (1k–10k BTC) продолжают идеальное накопление. Они спокойно игнорируют рыночный шум и покупают на коррекциях.

- Ритейл

(1–10 BTC)

- в режиме распродажи, фиксируя прибыль или поддаваясь панике.

Different strategies - one goal. BTC accumulation data

Fresh data from Glassnode clearly shows:

- Large holders (1k-10k BTC) continue to accumulate perfectly. They quietly ignore market noise and buy on corrections.
- Retail (1-10 BTC) are in sell-off mode, locking in profits or succumbing to panic.

A clear contrast in behavior. While whales see a strategic opportunity, retail appears to be playing emotion again.

At times like these, it's not worth guessing who's right. It's better to choose to make your own choice, hold or sell. Good luck in the market!

🪙 BTC: $117 604 (+5.65%)

🪙 ETH: $2 986 (+6.82%)

🪙 BNB: $688 (+2.62%)

🪙 SOL: $163 (+3.87%)

It's an extreme working day!

BTC: $117,604 (+5.65%)

ETH: $2,986 (+6.82%)

BNB: $688 (+2.62%)

SOL: $163 (+3.87%)

According to the data, the market is in the green zone, and yesterday and today, it has shown good positive movements)) I think we'll be walking around 115-120k$ on the weekend.

How will you relax tonight?)

Исторически, LTH начинают активно продавать, когда прибыль переваливает за 300%+.

When will the “old guys” start exiting?

It's an interesting point on the chart, long-term BTC (LTH) holders are now on average in the plus side at 215% of their entry cost. That's not peak euphoria yet, but it's not zero either.

What's important:

Historically, LTH starts to sell off aggressively when profits go over 300%+.

We were already in this zone in 2024 (maxing out at 357% returns). That's when the first powerful offloading started.

Right now the market is more in the “partial fixing” phase than at the point of a massive exit.

The current level is not the bull market finale, but it is not the accumulation phase either. It is the midpoint where some are fixing and the smart ones are picking up.

It is at times like these that the real endurance game begins. Good luck in the market!

🪙 BTC: $117 604 (-0.27%)

🪙 ETH: $2 947 (-1.35%)
🪙 XRP: $2. 765 (+7.14%)
🪙 BNB: $690 (+0.03%)
🪙 SOL: $162 (-1.95%)

Рынок сейчас взял небольшую паузу, обычно волатильность на выходных минимальная, поэтому что-то ловить без мысленно, но если с коротким стопом, то можно!

It's the weekend, friends!

BTC: $117,604 (-0.27%)

ETH: $2,947 (-1.35%)

XRP: $2,765 (+7.14%)

BNB: $690 (+0.03%)

SOL: $162 (-1.95%)

The market is currently taking a short break, and volatility is usually minimal on weekends, so it's difficult to catch anything without a mental plan. However, if you use a short stop, it's possible!

What are your plans for the weekend? Who will be grilling kebabs, and who will be trading?))

📉 Истинный пик цикла наступает не тогда, когда все в ожидании отката, а когда рынок перестаёт бояться слово "коррекция".

Thoughts out loud - about the bullish trend and bearish delusions

It is interesting to watch history repeat itself: as soon as BTC shows strong growth and forms a local maximum, voices immediately appear: "that's it, the bear market has begun." But practice shows: a real reversal begins when the majority no longer expects a fall, but only euphoria.

The true peak of the cycle comes not when everyone is expecting a rollback, but when the market stops being afraid of the word "correction".

Global liquidity is worth mentioning separately, the M2 aggregate continues to grow. And yes, Bitcoin still reacts to it. But it is important to remember: correlation does not mean endless growth. At some point, liquidity may continue to expand, and BTC, on the contrary, will already be looking for its peak in the cycle.

Follow not only the chart and indicators, but also the mood of the crowd. Often, it is in them that the most accurate signal is hidden.

How do you determine the market phases? Share your observations in the comments. Good luck in the market!