$BTC Mid Term View
Trendline break: BTC has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline that supported price from mid year. This suggests loss of bullish momentum and potential for correction or consolidation.
Scenario Breakdown: A daily/2D close below $102,000 would confirm a short term top, opening downside targets around $94,000 → $88,000 aligning with prior structure lows and high volume nodes.
Key supports:
$102,000 – $104,000 → short-term retest (currently testing)
$88,000 – $94,000 → medium support cluster
$70,000 –$75,000 → major structural support (green block), also aligns with the post-ETF consolidation base
Trendline break: BTC has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline that supported price from mid year. This suggests loss of bullish momentum and potential for correction or consolidation.
Scenario Breakdown: A daily/2D close below $102,000 would confirm a short term top, opening downside targets around $94,000 → $88,000 aligning with prior structure lows and high volume nodes.
Key supports:
$102,000 – $104,000 → short-term retest (currently testing)
$88,000 – $94,000 → medium support cluster
$70,000 –$75,000 → major structural support (green block), also aligns with the post-ETF consolidation base
The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq-100 remains high at ~0.8; however, BTC reacts more significantly to Nasdaq losses than to gains.
This negative performance skew is now at levels last seen in late 2022, yet we are currently sitting near all-time highs.
Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry does not typically appear near market tops but rather surfaces near bottoms.
This negative performance skew is now at levels last seen in late 2022, yet we are currently sitting near all-time highs.
Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry does not typically appear near market tops but rather surfaces near bottoms.
#BTC broke the multi month ascending trendline → medium term structure turning bearish
Expecting a move toward 94k → 88.5k. If 88.5k fails, a deeper drop into the 74k–76k demand zone becomes likely
Expecting a move toward 94k → 88.5k. If 88.5k fails, a deeper drop into the 74k–76k demand zone becomes likely
BTC is testing the ascending trendline + green demand zone again after another rejection from the 92.5k–94k supply zone (grey).
✔️ Bullish case: Hold above trendline → bounce → another attempt toward 92–93k.
❌ Bearish case: Clean break & 4H close below 90k / trendline → likely drop to 88.5k → 86k.
Right now momentum is weak, reaction from the green zone decides next move.
✔️ Bullish case: Hold above trendline → bounce → another attempt toward 92–93k.
❌ Bearish case: Clean break & 4H close below 90k / trendline → likely drop to 88.5k → 86k.
Right now momentum is weak, reaction from the green zone decides next move.
$ETH: The recent bounce came from a strong demand zone ~2.7k–2.9k, which is holding for now.
Current move looks like a relief rally toward the upper channel, not a confirmed trend reversal yet.
Key resistance: ~3.2k–3.4k (channel top). Rejection here = likely continuation down.
Bullish confirmation: clean daily close above the channel + hold above ~3.3k.
Risk: lose the 2.7k demand → opens path back toward 2.5k.
Bias: cautious short-term bounce, macro still needs confirmation.
Good for tactical longs from demand, but trend traders should wait for a breakout.
Current move looks like a relief rally toward the upper channel, not a confirmed trend reversal yet.
Key resistance: ~3.2k–3.4k (channel top). Rejection here = likely continuation down.
Bullish confirmation: clean daily close above the channel + hold above ~3.3k.
Risk: lose the 2.7k demand → opens path back toward 2.5k.
Bias: cautious short-term bounce, macro still needs confirmation.
Good for tactical longs from demand, but trend traders should wait for a breakout.