Corn Futures Hold Steady as US-China Summit Unfolds
CBOT corn futures saw little change Wednesday, as traders awaited outcomes from the U.S.-China leadership summit in Beijing. President Trump is currently meeting President Xi, advocating for increased U.S. business access.
Market participants are keenly watching for potential Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. corn, wheat, or distillers dried grains. While a farm deal might emerge, analysts anticipate no major new soybean purchases beyond existing agreements.
July corn futures gained 3/4 cent to $4.80-3/4 per bushel, marking its highest level since May 5. Separately, weekly U.S. ethanol production increased while inventories declined.
CBOT corn futures saw little change Wednesday, as traders awaited outcomes from the U.S.-China leadership summit in Beijing. President Trump is currently meeting President Xi, advocating for increased U.S. business access.
Market participants are keenly watching for potential Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. corn, wheat, or distillers dried grains. While a farm deal might emerge, analysts anticipate no major new soybean purchases beyond existing agreements.
July corn futures gained 3/4 cent to $4.80-3/4 per bushel, marking its highest level since May 5. Separately, weekly U.S. ethanol production increased while inventories declined.
BofA Weighs Stagflation Risk Amid Elevated Inflation
Bank of America economists are debating whether the US economy faces stagflation or reflation, as supply and demand shocks persist and inflation remains above target.
April inflation data surprised higher: core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, and headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year. Despite this, consumer spending shows resilience, with robust retail sales and BofA's aggregated card data indicating growth. This suggests reflation, but fading fiscal tailwinds could test consumer and labor strength.
BofA anticipates hawkish FOMC minutes, reinforcing the Fed’s tough stance on persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The bank now expects no Fed rate cuts this year, pushing any potential cuts to late 2026-2027. A tightening labor market would be crucial for reflation and rate hikes to become the bank’s base case scenario.
Bank of America economists are debating whether the US economy faces stagflation or reflation, as supply and demand shocks persist and inflation remains above target.
April inflation data surprised higher: core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, and headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year. Despite this, consumer spending shows resilience, with robust retail sales and BofA's aggregated card data indicating growth. This suggests reflation, but fading fiscal tailwinds could test consumer and labor strength.
BofA anticipates hawkish FOMC minutes, reinforcing the Fed’s tough stance on persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The bank now expects no Fed rate cuts this year, pushing any potential cuts to late 2026-2027. A tightening labor market would be crucial for reflation and rate hikes to become the bank’s base case scenario.
US Energy Agency Forecasts Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Closure, Higher Fuel Prices
The U.S. Department of Energy's statistical arm projects the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively shut through late May, with a gradual reopening commencing in June. This ongoing closure, linked to Iran's conflict, has severely disrupted global energy markets, stranding millions of barrels of Middle Eastern exports and intensifying concerns over worldwide fuel shortages.
The U.S. Department of Energy's statistical arm projects the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively shut through late May, with a gradual reopening commencing in June. This ongoing closure, linked to Iran's conflict, has severely disrupted global energy markets, stranding millions of barrels of Middle Eastern exports and intensifying concerns over worldwide fuel shortages.
US Refiners See Biofuel Profits Soar Amid Mandates & High Diesel Prices
After years of squeezed margins, U.S. oil refiners are finally making significant profits from renewable fuels. New government mandates from the EPA require record biofuel blending, including a 60% boost in biodiesel and renewable diesel, alongside existing ethanol quotas. This, coupled with surging diesel prices driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran, has created a "strong tailwind."
Major players like Valero and HF Sinclair report substantial profit swings in their renewable divisions, while Phillips 66 narrowed losses. The mandates also bolster prices for tradable Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which are up over 80% this year.
However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Past ventures have failed, and high feedstock costs or the allure of maximizing conventional diesel output amidst global tightness could temper future expansion. It's unclear if this is a sustained shift or a temporary spike.
After years of squeezed margins, U.S. oil refiners are finally making significant profits from renewable fuels. New government mandates from the EPA require record biofuel blending, including a 60% boost in biodiesel and renewable diesel, alongside existing ethanol quotas. This, coupled with surging diesel prices driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran, has created a "strong tailwind."
Major players like Valero and HF Sinclair report substantial profit swings in their renewable divisions, while Phillips 66 narrowed losses. The mandates also bolster prices for tradable Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which are up over 80% this year.
However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Past ventures have failed, and high feedstock costs or the allure of maximizing conventional diesel output amidst global tightness could temper future expansion. It's unclear if this is a sustained shift or a temporary spike.
Trump: Xi May Free Pastor, But Tycoon Lai's Case 'Tough'
US President Donald Trump stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping is "very seriously considering" releasing a detained pastor. However, Trump conveyed Xi's view that the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai "is a tough one."
Trump recounted his plea to Xi for Lai's release, citing his age and health, but described Xi's response as "not positive," leaving him "not optimistic" about the outcome.
Lai, founder of the now-shuttered Apple Daily, received a 20-year sentence in February for national security offenses, including collusion. His high-profile case has drawn significant global concern.
Pastor Jin Mingri of Zion Church was arrested in November with nearly 30 others amid a crackdown on Chinese Christians. This followed new rules banning unauthorized online preaching and "foreign collusion."
US President Donald Trump stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping is "very seriously considering" releasing a detained pastor. However, Trump conveyed Xi's view that the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai "is a tough one."
Trump recounted his plea to Xi for Lai's release, citing his age and health, but described Xi's response as "not positive," leaving him "not optimistic" about the outcome.
Lai, founder of the now-shuttered Apple Daily, received a 20-year sentence in February for national security offenses, including collusion. His high-profile case has drawn significant global concern.
Pastor Jin Mingri of Zion Church was arrested in November with nearly 30 others amid a crackdown on Chinese Christians. This followed new rules banning unauthorized online preaching and "foreign collusion."
China Mandates EV Safety Priority
China's industry ministry, along with market regulators and state fire administration, has directed automakers and battery manufacturers to prioritize electric vehicle safety. This instruction follows a video conference focused on strengthening EV safety management. Companies are now required to ensure safety across all operations, from research and development to manufacturing, supply chains, and after-sales service.
China's industry ministry, along with market regulators and state fire administration, has directed automakers and battery manufacturers to prioritize electric vehicle safety. This instruction follows a video conference focused on strengthening EV safety management. Companies are now required to ensure safety across all operations, from research and development to manufacturing, supply chains, and after-sales service.
European Wheat Prices Climb as Heat Threatens Crops
European wheat prices rose as traders assessed the impact of record May temperatures on winter crops across Western Europe. Benchmark September milling wheat on Euronext gained 1% to 214.75 euros per metric ton.
Parts of Western Europe, including France, the EU’s largest grain producer, the UK, and Spain, are experiencing unprecedented May heat, with forecasts predicting continued high temperatures. Such late May heatwaves can severely damage crops during sensitive spring growth stages, before they develop summer heat tolerance.
Meanwhile, Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, plans to ship 60 million tons this season, having already supplied 52 million tons. EU wheat exports also reached 20.94 million metric tons by May 24, a 6% increase from last season.
European wheat prices rose as traders assessed the impact of record May temperatures on winter crops across Western Europe. Benchmark September milling wheat on Euronext gained 1% to 214.75 euros per metric ton.
Parts of Western Europe, including France, the EU’s largest grain producer, the UK, and Spain, are experiencing unprecedented May heat, with forecasts predicting continued high temperatures. Such late May heatwaves can severely damage crops during sensitive spring growth stages, before they develop summer heat tolerance.
Meanwhile, Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, plans to ship 60 million tons this season, having already supplied 52 million tons. EU wheat exports also reached 20.94 million metric tons by May 24, a 6% increase from last season.
SharpLink Rejects Saylor's Crypto Strategy, Favors Ethereum Staking
SharpLink Gaming CEO Joseph Shalom criticized Michael Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy. Ethereum firms, like SharpLink, favor staking income and simplified balances. Shalom views Ethereum as a superior reserve asset, offering passive income. SharpLink holds 868,699 ETH (~$1.96B), emphasizing equity and staking for stability, contrasting with firms hurt by early convertible debt. He predicts asset tokenization, stablecoin growth, 24/7 trading, and Ethereum's decoupling from Bitcoin, driven by DeFi, RWA tokenization, and AI.
Separately, Bit Digital's Q1 revenue hit $27.9M (-13.6%). The company pivots from Bitcoin mining to the Ethereum ecosystem and AI infrastructure, backed by 155,444 ETH holdings and control of AI operator WhiteFiber. CEO Sam Tabar sees finance's future at the intersection of AI and Ethereum.
SharpLink Gaming CEO Joseph Shalom criticized Michael Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy. Ethereum firms, like SharpLink, favor staking income and simplified balances. Shalom views Ethereum as a superior reserve asset, offering passive income. SharpLink holds 868,699 ETH (~$1.96B), emphasizing equity and staking for stability, contrasting with firms hurt by early convertible debt. He predicts asset tokenization, stablecoin growth, 24/7 trading, and Ethereum's decoupling from Bitcoin, driven by DeFi, RWA tokenization, and AI.
Separately, Bit Digital's Q1 revenue hit $27.9M (-13.6%). The company pivots from Bitcoin mining to the Ethereum ecosystem and AI infrastructure, backed by 155,444 ETH holdings and control of AI operator WhiteFiber. CEO Sam Tabar sees finance's future at the intersection of AI and Ethereum.
Trump to Discuss Iran Military Options
President Donald Trump is expected to convene with his top national security advisers in the Situation Room on Tuesday. The meeting's focus will be on potential military action options concerning Iran. This development comes from a Sunday report, citing two US officials. The claims made in the report are not yet officially confirmed.
President Donald Trump is expected to convene with his top national security advisers in the Situation Room on Tuesday. The meeting's focus will be on potential military action options concerning Iran. This development comes from a Sunday report, citing two US officials. The claims made in the report are not yet officially confirmed.
South Africa's Unemployment Climbs to 32.7% in Q1
South Africa's jobless rate rose to 32.7% in the first quarter, up from 31.4%, exceeding economist forecasts. This means 8.1 million people are unemployed.
The increase was driven by significant job losses in construction and community services, despite some gains in manufacturing and mining sectors.
This weakening labor market comes as the IMF recently cut SA's 2026 economic growth forecast to 1%. Rising global energy and food prices, exacerbated by the US/Israel-Iran conflict, pose further economic challenges for the oil-importing nation.
South Africa's jobless rate rose to 32.7% in the first quarter, up from 31.4%, exceeding economist forecasts. This means 8.1 million people are unemployed.
The increase was driven by significant job losses in construction and community services, despite some gains in manufacturing and mining sectors.
This weakening labor market comes as the IMF recently cut SA's 2026 economic growth forecast to 1%. Rising global energy and food prices, exacerbated by the US/Israel-Iran conflict, pose further economic challenges for the oil-importing nation.
Oil Prices Ease Amid Hormuz Fears, US Inventory Watch
Oil prices eased in Asian trade after a three-day rally, as traders weighed ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and U.S. inventory data. Brent fell 0.4% to $107.36, WTI 0.3% to $101.91.
Concerns grew after President Trump called an Iran ceasefire "on life support," hinting at prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, crucial for 1/5 of global oil, remains largely shut. EIA forecasts its closure until late May, projecting a steeper 2.6M bpd global inventory drawdown. Saudi Aramco CEO warned full market recovery may not occur until 2027.
API data showed U.S. crude stocks fell for a fourth straight week. Firm U.S. inflation and potential higher interest rates could temper future fuel demand, partially offsetting supply gains.
Oil prices eased in Asian trade after a three-day rally, as traders weighed ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and U.S. inventory data. Brent fell 0.4% to $107.36, WTI 0.3% to $101.91.
Concerns grew after President Trump called an Iran ceasefire "on life support," hinting at prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, crucial for 1/5 of global oil, remains largely shut. EIA forecasts its closure until late May, projecting a steeper 2.6M bpd global inventory drawdown. Saudi Aramco CEO warned full market recovery may not occur until 2027.
API data showed U.S. crude stocks fell for a fourth straight week. Firm U.S. inflation and potential higher interest rates could temper future fuel demand, partially offsetting supply gains.
Pentagon: US War in Iran Costs Hit $29 Billion
The U.S. war in Iran has now cost $29 billion, a senior Pentagon official confirmed. This represents a $4 billion increase from late last month's $25 billion estimate. Acting comptroller Jules Hurst attributed the rise to updated equipment repair, replacement, and operational expenses.
The new figure emerges as Democrats leverage war costs in public debate ahead of midterm elections. While the precise method for reaching $29 billion is unclear, an earlier March estimate placed the first six days at $11.3 billion.
The U.S. war in Iran has now cost $29 billion, a senior Pentagon official confirmed. This represents a $4 billion increase from late last month's $25 billion estimate. Acting comptroller Jules Hurst attributed the rise to updated equipment repair, replacement, and operational expenses.
The new figure emerges as Democrats leverage war costs in public debate ahead of midterm elections. While the precise method for reaching $29 billion is unclear, an earlier March estimate placed the first six days at $11.3 billion.
Democrats Demand Ethical Amendments to CLARITY Act
The US Senate Banking Committee has released a new version of the CLARITY Act, a cryptocurrency regulation bill. While Chairman Tim Scott praised it as "good faith work" aimed at consumer protection and fighting illicit finance, Democrats are critical of its ethical shortcomings.
The bill offers legal certainty for DeFi developers and restricts stablecoin issuers from paying interest that makes them resemble bank deposits. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called these terms a compromise.
However, a major point of contention is the absence of provisions addressing conflicts of interest for officials. Democrats insist on banning public servants from profiting from crypto assets, citing claims of the Trump family earning $1.4 billion from crypto deals. Earlier amendments proposing such bans were not included.
The US Senate Banking Committee has released a new version of the CLARITY Act, a cryptocurrency regulation bill. While Chairman Tim Scott praised it as "good faith work" aimed at consumer protection and fighting illicit finance, Democrats are critical of its ethical shortcomings.
The bill offers legal certainty for DeFi developers and restricts stablecoin issuers from paying interest that makes them resemble bank deposits. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called these terms a compromise.
However, a major point of contention is the absence of provisions addressing conflicts of interest for officials. Democrats insist on banning public servants from profiting from crypto assets, citing claims of the Trump family earning $1.4 billion from crypto deals. Earlier amendments proposing such bans were not included.
Bitcoin Climbs Past $80K Amid US Regulatory Push, Global Tensions Weigh
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $80,351.5 after US lawmakers advanced the "Clarity Act," aiming for a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework. This legislative progress fueled overnight strength, pushing the world's largest crypto above the $80,000 mark.
However, gains were capped by broader market caution. Uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks, where semiconductor controls weren't discussed, and President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, warning of further military action without a peace deal, tempered investor enthusiasm. These geopolitical concerns, alongside inflationary worries from the Iran conflict, limited crypto's upward momentum. Altcoins generally saw muted performance.
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $80,351.5 after US lawmakers advanced the "Clarity Act," aiming for a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework. This legislative progress fueled overnight strength, pushing the world's largest crypto above the $80,000 mark.
However, gains were capped by broader market caution. Uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks, where semiconductor controls weren't discussed, and President Trump's hawkish stance on Iran, warning of further military action without a peace deal, tempered investor enthusiasm. These geopolitical concerns, alongside inflationary worries from the Iran conflict, limited crypto's upward momentum. Altcoins generally saw muted performance.
Private Credit Funds Slash Loan Values Amid Rising Borrower Stress
Private credit funds have marked down over 10% of their loans by at least 50%. This signals "deep distress" as corporate borrowers in the $3.5 trillion market struggle with growing debt burdens due to sustained high interest rates.
Writedowns are at their highest since the pandemic, with smaller funds seeing 13% of loans valued below 50 cents on the dollar. Major firms like Carlyle and Blackstone are cutting fund values, and regulators warn of systemic risks. Delayed reporting and slumping returns (1.8% in Q4 2025) fuel investor unease, as a third lack trusted private market data.
Private credit funds have marked down over 10% of their loans by at least 50%. This signals "deep distress" as corporate borrowers in the $3.5 trillion market struggle with growing debt burdens due to sustained high interest rates.
Writedowns are at their highest since the pandemic, with smaller funds seeing 13% of loans valued below 50 cents on the dollar. Major firms like Carlyle and Blackstone are cutting fund values, and regulators warn of systemic risks. Delayed reporting and slumping returns (1.8% in Q4 2025) fuel investor unease, as a third lack trusted private market data.
US-Iran War Strains Global Financial Markets
The ongoing Middle East conflict is severely testing global finance. Asian currencies are plummeting, with Indonesia's rupiah hitting a record low, as the region faces critical oil import exposure. Central banks are intervening.
Japan's yen weakens further, burdened by high energy costs despite official support.
A new food shock looms for emerging economies as fertiliser supplies and energy prices surge.
Consumers globally feel the squeeze: US gasoline prices jumped over $4.50/gallon, fueling inflation expectations (ECB survey: 1-year expectations to 4.0%). The airline industry is hit hard; Spirit Airlines ceased operations, and European airline stocks are down 14% due to soaring jet fuel.
Bond markets show renewed fragility. US 10-year Treasury yields are nearing a "danger zone" above 4.5%, signaling instability for equities and credit.
The ongoing Middle East conflict is severely testing global finance. Asian currencies are plummeting, with Indonesia's rupiah hitting a record low, as the region faces critical oil import exposure. Central banks are intervening.
Japan's yen weakens further, burdened by high energy costs despite official support.
A new food shock looms for emerging economies as fertiliser supplies and energy prices surge.
Consumers globally feel the squeeze: US gasoline prices jumped over $4.50/gallon, fueling inflation expectations (ECB survey: 1-year expectations to 4.0%). The airline industry is hit hard; Spirit Airlines ceased operations, and European airline stocks are down 14% due to soaring jet fuel.
Bond markets show renewed fragility. US 10-year Treasury yields are nearing a "danger zone" above 4.5%, signaling instability for equities and credit.
Oil Surges Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions After UAE Drone Attack
Oil prices jumped over 1% in early Asian trade, with Brent crude reaching $110.71 a barrel, fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions.
A recent drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant, reportedly by Iran or its proxies, intensified concerns. US President Trump warned the "clock is ticking" for Iran, while the US and Israel discuss potential military operations.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global oil shipments, further underpinning crude prices.
Oil prices jumped over 1% in early Asian trade, with Brent crude reaching $110.71 a barrel, fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions.
A recent drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant, reportedly by Iran or its proxies, intensified concerns. US President Trump warned the "clock is ticking" for Iran, while the US and Israel discuss potential military operations.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global oil shipments, further underpinning crude prices.
ECB May Hike Rates Due to Iran War, Says Bundesbank Chief
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel suggests the ECB may need to raise rates, citing the Iran war and high energy prices. He warns that rate hikes are increasingly likely unless inflation fundamentally changes.
Nagel points to a shift towards an "adverse scenario" in ECB projections. He expects inflation to broaden beyond fuel, with supply shocks impacting all goods over 18 months.
Despite economic pressures, Nagel, a hawkish member, emphasizes the ECB's commitment to price stability. He affirmed their mandate, vowing to "do our job" and keep inflation near 2% in the medium term.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel suggests the ECB may need to raise rates, citing the Iran war and high energy prices. He warns that rate hikes are increasingly likely unless inflation fundamentally changes.
Nagel points to a shift towards an "adverse scenario" in ECB projections. He expects inflation to broaden beyond fuel, with supply shocks impacting all goods over 18 months.
Despite economic pressures, Nagel, a hawkish member, emphasizes the ECB's commitment to price stability. He affirmed their mandate, vowing to "do our job" and keep inflation near 2% in the medium term.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Reportedly Joins Trump's China Trip
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is set to join President Trump's China visit this week, accompanying over a dozen other U.S. executives. His inclusion, confirmed by insiders, follows his absence from the initial White House executive list.
This occurs as Nvidia's powerful H200 chips have yet to be sold in China, citing difficulties with Chinese government permission, as noted by a U.S. official last month.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is set to join President Trump's China visit this week, accompanying over a dozen other U.S. executives. His inclusion, confirmed by insiders, follows his absence from the initial White House executive list.
This occurs as Nvidia's powerful H200 chips have yet to be sold in China, citing difficulties with Chinese government permission, as noted by a U.S. official last month.
China's April Output & Sales Miss Forecasts
Official data reveals China's industrial output grew 4.1% in April, a slowdown from March's 5.7% and below the 5.9% forecast. Retail sales, a key consumption gauge, rose by a mere 0.2%, sharply decelerating from 1.7% in March and significantly missing the 2% expectation.
Adding to concerns, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly contracted 1.6% in the first four months of the year. This marks a reversal from the 1.7% rise in Jan-March and widely missed economists' predictions for a 1.6% expansion.
Official data reveals China's industrial output grew 4.1% in April, a slowdown from March's 5.7% and below the 5.9% forecast. Retail sales, a key consumption gauge, rose by a mere 0.2%, sharply decelerating from 1.7% in March and significantly missing the 2% expectation.
Adding to concerns, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly contracted 1.6% in the first four months of the year. This marks a reversal from the 1.7% rise in Jan-March and widely missed economists' predictions for a 1.6% expansion.
Unitree Unveils Manned Transformable Mecha GD01
Chinese firm Unitree has revealed the GD01, calling it the world's first production-ready manned mecha. This civilian vehicle, weighing around 500kg with a pilot, features a human cockpit and can move on two or four limbs. Priced from $650,000, a demonstration showed it breaking a concrete wall. The company urges "Friendly and Safe" use.
This launch follows Unitree's recent successes, including G1 humanoid robots performing synchronized flips in December 2025 and a humanoid becoming a monk in Seoul in May 2026. Unitree aims to sell 20,000 humanoids in 2026, a significant jump from 5,500, with its entry-level R1 model costing around $6,000 and available internationally. China is rapidly advancing in the "robot race."
Chinese firm Unitree has revealed the GD01, calling it the world's first production-ready manned mecha. This civilian vehicle, weighing around 500kg with a pilot, features a human cockpit and can move on two or four limbs. Priced from $650,000, a demonstration showed it breaking a concrete wall. The company urges "Friendly and Safe" use.
This launch follows Unitree's recent successes, including G1 humanoid robots performing synchronized flips in December 2025 and a humanoid becoming a monk in Seoul in May 2026. Unitree aims to sell 20,000 humanoids in 2026, a significant jump from 5,500, with its entry-level R1 model costing around $6,000 and available internationally. China is rapidly advancing in the "robot race."