Trump: Rate Cuts Tied to Iran Conflict Resolution
Donald Trump, in a Fortune interview, indicated that interest rate cuts might be delayed until the war with Iran ends. He reportedly said, "You can’t really look at the figures until the war is over."
Trump also asserted that Iran is "dying to sign" a ceasefire but then delivers documents unrelated to the actual agreements.
Donald Trump, in a Fortune interview, indicated that interest rate cuts might be delayed until the war with Iran ends. He reportedly said, "You can’t really look at the figures until the war is over."
Trump also asserted that Iran is "dying to sign" a ceasefire but then delivers documents unrelated to the actual agreements.
South Korea's April Crude Imports: No Iranian Oil, Overall Decline
Preliminary data from Korea Customs Service reveals South Korea imported no crude oil from Iran in April. This mirrors the situation from April last year.
Overall, the world's fifth-largest crude buyer saw total imports drop to 8.5 million tonnes last month, down from 11 million tonnes a year earlier. Final figures will be released by KNOC later this month.
Preliminary data from Korea Customs Service reveals South Korea imported no crude oil from Iran in April. This mirrors the situation from April last year.
Overall, the world's fifth-largest crude buyer saw total imports drop to 8.5 million tonnes last month, down from 11 million tonnes a year earlier. Final figures will be released by KNOC later this month.
German Inflation Confirmed at 2.9% in April
Germany's inflation rate saw a slight acceleration to 2.9% in April, the federal statistics office announced, confirming earlier preliminary figures. This rise in consumer prices, harmonized for comparison across EU countries, follows a 2.8% year-on-year increase recorded in March.
Germany's inflation rate saw a slight acceleration to 2.9% in April, the federal statistics office announced, confirming earlier preliminary figures. This rise in consumer prices, harmonized for comparison across EU countries, follows a 2.8% year-on-year increase recorded in March.
ECB Warns Banks to Brace for AI-Powered Cyberattacks
The European Central Bank is pressing euro area banks to swiftly prepare for cyberattacks leveraging advanced AI models like Anthropic's Mythos. Frank Elderson, ECB board member, emphasized that while eurozone banks lack access to Mythos, this only heightens the urgency for action. US banks, with early access, are already using the tool to identify system weaknesses.
Elderson stressed the need to address not only current threats but also anticipate future, more aggressive AI models. He urged banks and their contractors to promptly fix even minor vulnerabilities, noting that a widening global access gap, with Japanese banks potentially gaining Mythos access, underscores the critical need for immediate preparedness against this significant cybersecurity challenge.
The European Central Bank is pressing euro area banks to swiftly prepare for cyberattacks leveraging advanced AI models like Anthropic's Mythos. Frank Elderson, ECB board member, emphasized that while eurozone banks lack access to Mythos, this only heightens the urgency for action. US banks, with early access, are already using the tool to identify system weaknesses.
Elderson stressed the need to address not only current threats but also anticipate future, more aggressive AI models. He urged banks and their contractors to promptly fix even minor vulnerabilities, noting that a widening global access gap, with Japanese banks potentially gaining Mythos access, underscores the critical need for immediate preparedness against this significant cybersecurity challenge.
Markets Jittery Amid Mideast Impasse, Inflation Fears, and Altman Scrutiny
US stock futures are subdued as hopes for a swift US-Iran resolution fade. President Trump reportedly rejected Iran's peace offer as "unacceptable," fueling concerns of renewed conflict and pushing oil prices above $105 a barrel. This surge intensifies inflation worries ahead of crucial US consumer price data today, which analysts expect to show an annual increase to 3.7%.
Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are scrutinizing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's business dealings and potential conflicts of interest, ahead of the ChatGPT-maker's anticipated IPO. This adds another layer of uncertainty to market sentiment.
US stock futures are subdued as hopes for a swift US-Iran resolution fade. President Trump reportedly rejected Iran's peace offer as "unacceptable," fueling concerns of renewed conflict and pushing oil prices above $105 a barrel. This surge intensifies inflation worries ahead of crucial US consumer price data today, which analysts expect to show an annual increase to 3.7%.
Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are scrutinizing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's business dealings and potential conflicts of interest, ahead of the ChatGPT-maker's anticipated IPO. This adds another layer of uncertainty to market sentiment.
US Adults Feel Financially Sound, But Job Concerns Rise
A recent Federal Reserve survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of US adults (73%) felt financially stable last year, rating themselves as "doing okay" or "living comfortably." This figure remains consistent with the previous year's findings.
However, inflation persists as a major concern for over 90% of respondents, though the intensity of this worry has slightly eased. More notably, anxieties about job security have increased, with 42% now expressing concern about finding or holding employment, up from 37% previously. This trend aligns with a reported slowdown in hiring.
The survey also noted declines in financial well-being for low-income households, young adults, and Black adults. Only 26% rated the national economy as "good" or "excellent," a dip from the previous year. For the first time, the poll found about one in four workers used AI tools at work, generally expecting career enhancement rather than job displacement.
A recent Federal Reserve survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of US adults (73%) felt financially stable last year, rating themselves as "doing okay" or "living comfortably." This figure remains consistent with the previous year's findings.
However, inflation persists as a major concern for over 90% of respondents, though the intensity of this worry has slightly eased. More notably, anxieties about job security have increased, with 42% now expressing concern about finding or holding employment, up from 37% previously. This trend aligns with a reported slowdown in hiring.
The survey also noted declines in financial well-being for low-income households, young adults, and Black adults. Only 26% rated the national economy as "good" or "excellent," a dip from the previous year. For the first time, the poll found about one in four workers used AI tools at work, generally expecting career enhancement rather than job displacement.
USDA Removes 10 Lenders from Rural Development Program
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has expelled ten lenders from its OneRD Guaranteed Lending Program. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins cited "irresponsible and noncompliant actions" for the decision, emphasizing the need to protect American taxpayers and bolster rural development.
These removed lenders are collectively responsible for approximately $620 million in delinquent loans, representing about 47% of the program's total. The USDA expects this action to improve customer service for the more than 750 remaining participating lenders.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has expelled ten lenders from its OneRD Guaranteed Lending Program. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins cited "irresponsible and noncompliant actions" for the decision, emphasizing the need to protect American taxpayers and bolster rural development.
These removed lenders are collectively responsible for approximately $620 million in delinquent loans, representing about 47% of the program's total. The USDA expects this action to improve customer service for the more than 750 remaining participating lenders.
Experts Weigh In on April's Hot CPI Report
April's consumer inflation surged, largely due to oil price hikes fueled by the Middle East conflict. Headline CPI climbed 0.6% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, surpassing estimates and marking the highest annual rate since May 2023. Core CPI also surprised, rising 0.4% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y.
Energy costs, up 3.8% M/M and 17.9% Y/Y, drove over 40% of the monthly CPI growth. Analysts warn this oil-driven inflation is pushing consumer prices higher, with some suggesting inflation likely hasn't peaked and could hit a "four-handle" soon.
The data has prompted traders to increase bets on future interest rate hikes. Experts believe the Federal Reserve will hold rates through summer, with potential for hikes rather than cuts given persistent inflation and a strong labor market. Wall Street saw declines following the report.
April's consumer inflation surged, largely due to oil price hikes fueled by the Middle East conflict. Headline CPI climbed 0.6% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, surpassing estimates and marking the highest annual rate since May 2023. Core CPI also surprised, rising 0.4% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y.
Energy costs, up 3.8% M/M and 17.9% Y/Y, drove over 40% of the monthly CPI growth. Analysts warn this oil-driven inflation is pushing consumer prices higher, with some suggesting inflation likely hasn't peaked and could hit a "four-handle" soon.
The data has prompted traders to increase bets on future interest rate hikes. Experts believe the Federal Reserve will hold rates through summer, with potential for hikes rather than cuts given persistent inflation and a strong labor market. Wall Street saw declines following the report.
US Tariffs & Shifting Tastes Drive Global Wine Trade to New Lows in 2025
Global wine trade faced significant headwinds in 2025, largely due to US tariffs and evolving consumer preferences, the international wine body OIV reported. Exports plummeted 4.7% in volume and 6.7% in value, marking the lowest levels seen since 2009.
Consumption also hit a 60-year low, dropping 2.7% to levels not seen since 1957. Economic pressures and changing tastes are deterring drinkers. The sector is innovating with wine tourism, sustainability, and lower-alcohol products to adapt to these challenges, while production remains near historic lows.
Global wine trade faced significant headwinds in 2025, largely due to US tariffs and evolving consumer preferences, the international wine body OIV reported. Exports plummeted 4.7% in volume and 6.7% in value, marking the lowest levels seen since 2009.
Consumption also hit a 60-year low, dropping 2.7% to levels not seen since 1957. Economic pressures and changing tastes are deterring drinkers. The sector is innovating with wine tourism, sustainability, and lower-alcohol products to adapt to these challenges, while production remains near historic lows.
Drone Strike Hits UAE Nuclear Plant Amid Iran War Deadlock
A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE. Officials reported no radiological impact or injuries, and did not attribute blame.
This comes as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The war, initiated Feb 28 with US/Israeli strikes on Iran, has seen Iranian retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, targeting energy infrastructure.
Washington and Tehran remain far apart on demands. The US demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and open shipping; Iran seeks war compensation and an end to blockades. Trump threatens renewed attacks, while Iran warns of a "self-made quagmire." The ongoing conflict has triggered a severe oil supply crisis.
A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE. Officials reported no radiological impact or injuries, and did not attribute blame.
This comes as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The war, initiated Feb 28 with US/Israeli strikes on Iran, has seen Iranian retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, targeting energy infrastructure.
Washington and Tehran remain far apart on demands. The US demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and open shipping; Iran seeks war compensation and an end to blockades. Trump threatens renewed attacks, while Iran warns of a "self-made quagmire." The ongoing conflict has triggered a severe oil supply crisis.
US Upstream Oil & Gas Deals Hit Two-Year High in Q1 2026
US upstream oil and gas dealmaking surged to $38 billion in Q1 2026, marking a two-year high, according to Enverus. The $25 billion merger of Devon and Coterra, closed last week, was the primary driver, impacting major shale formations.
Dealmaking saw a brief slowdown in March due to crude price volatility. US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered Middle East conflict, disrupting shipping and causing Brent crude to swing wildly between $77 and $118.
However, higher oil prices are now expected to fuel a rebound. Enverus anticipates a "tsunami of consolidation," with elevated prices encouraging private E&P sales and public firms' deal appetite. Mitsubishi's $7.6 billion acquisition of Aethon Energy was also a significant transaction.
US upstream oil and gas dealmaking surged to $38 billion in Q1 2026, marking a two-year high, according to Enverus. The $25 billion merger of Devon and Coterra, closed last week, was the primary driver, impacting major shale formations.
Dealmaking saw a brief slowdown in March due to crude price volatility. US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered Middle East conflict, disrupting shipping and causing Brent crude to swing wildly between $77 and $118.
However, higher oil prices are now expected to fuel a rebound. Enverus anticipates a "tsunami of consolidation," with elevated prices encouraging private E&P sales and public firms' deal appetite. Mitsubishi's $7.6 billion acquisition of Aethon Energy was also a significant transaction.
China to Address US Rare Earth Shortages
China has agreed to address U.S. concerns over shortages of specialty rare earths, according to a White House announcement. These critical materials, including yttrium and scandium, are vital for defense, aerospace, and chipmaking, and have been impacted by Beijing's export controls.
Previous efforts last October to ensure free flow were largely ineffective. The new commitment, detailed in a factsheet after a recent summit, also extends to restrictions on rare earth processing equipment and technology. China refines over 90% of the world's rare earths, closely guarding its dominant expertise. Beijing's Ministry of Commerce did not mention rare earths in its own summary.
China has agreed to address U.S. concerns over shortages of specialty rare earths, according to a White House announcement. These critical materials, including yttrium and scandium, are vital for defense, aerospace, and chipmaking, and have been impacted by Beijing's export controls.
Previous efforts last October to ensure free flow were largely ineffective. The new commitment, detailed in a factsheet after a recent summit, also extends to restrictions on rare earth processing equipment and technology. China refines over 90% of the world's rare earths, closely guarding its dominant expertise. Beijing's Ministry of Commerce did not mention rare earths in its own summary.
Harvard Faculty Vote to Curb Grade Inflation
Harvard University faculty are currently voting on a significant proposal to limit "A" grades in undergraduate courses. The measure seeks to cap "A"s at no more than 20% of a class, plus four additional students.
This initiative marks the most substantial attempt in decades to address grade inflation at the institution. Grades of "A" constituted roughly 60% by mid-2025, a figure that had more than doubled since 2006. While recent efforts saw this drop to 53% last fall, critics argue inflation complicates student evaluation for employers and graduate schools.
Voting concludes next week, with results anticipated on May 20. Despite considerable faculty support for tackling this issue, vocal opposition means the proposal's passage is not guaranteed.
Harvard University faculty are currently voting on a significant proposal to limit "A" grades in undergraduate courses. The measure seeks to cap "A"s at no more than 20% of a class, plus four additional students.
This initiative marks the most substantial attempt in decades to address grade inflation at the institution. Grades of "A" constituted roughly 60% by mid-2025, a figure that had more than doubled since 2006. While recent efforts saw this drop to 53% last fall, critics argue inflation complicates student evaluation for employers and graduate schools.
Voting concludes next week, with results anticipated on May 20. Despite considerable faculty support for tackling this issue, vocal opposition means the proposal's passage is not guaranteed.
AI Driving Significant Corporate Layoffs
AI is increasingly behind corporate workforce reductions, a new UBS Global Research report reveals. Corporate optimism for AI's role in cutting labor costs is accelerating; 42% of companies now expect AI to reduce hiring, up from 31% in Oct 2025.
The latest Job Cuts Report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas notes 26% of recent announced corporate layoffs were explicitly AI-driven. This pushes year-to-date AI-driven cuts to 16%, a sharp rise from 0% last year and 5% for all of 2025.
A UBS economist cautions this data, while showing clear layoff momentum, primarily reflects public announcements from larger, tech-heavy corporations, accounting for only ~5% of total monthly layoffs.
AI is increasingly behind corporate workforce reductions, a new UBS Global Research report reveals. Corporate optimism for AI's role in cutting labor costs is accelerating; 42% of companies now expect AI to reduce hiring, up from 31% in Oct 2025.
The latest Job Cuts Report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas notes 26% of recent announced corporate layoffs were explicitly AI-driven. This pushes year-to-date AI-driven cuts to 16%, a sharp rise from 0% last year and 5% for all of 2025.
A UBS economist cautions this data, while showing clear layoff momentum, primarily reflects public announcements from larger, tech-heavy corporations, accounting for only ~5% of total monthly layoffs.
Russian Crypto Users Neglect Asset Origin Checks
A recent study reveals that nearly half (48.4%) of Russian crypto market participants do not verify the origin of their digital assets or counterparties. This highlights a significant compliance gap, with only 51.6% performing such checks.
While AML mechanisms evolve, they aren't standard yet. Exchange-integrated functions (26.6%) are the top tool for checks, followed by specialized services like BitOK (11.7%).
The survey also reveals 73.6% held crypto over three years, weathering the 2022 crash, and 57.4% use digital assets for business. A significant 56.7% allocate over 30% of their portfolio to crypto, with trading (26.5%) and investments (25.5%) being primary uses.
Most users (55.9%) opt for non-custodial wallets, while 38.6% use centralized exchanges. Bybit dominates among traders (36.9%), with 87.4% leveraging their positions.
A recent study reveals that nearly half (48.4%) of Russian crypto market participants do not verify the origin of their digital assets or counterparties. This highlights a significant compliance gap, with only 51.6% performing such checks.
While AML mechanisms evolve, they aren't standard yet. Exchange-integrated functions (26.6%) are the top tool for checks, followed by specialized services like BitOK (11.7%).
The survey also reveals 73.6% held crypto over three years, weathering the 2022 crash, and 57.4% use digital assets for business. A significant 56.7% allocate over 30% of their portfolio to crypto, with trading (26.5%) and investments (25.5%) being primary uses.
Most users (55.9%) opt for non-custodial wallets, while 38.6% use centralized exchanges. Bybit dominates among traders (36.9%), with 87.4% leveraging their positions.
Thailand's Central Bank Signals No Rush on Rate Hikes
Thailand's central bank (BoT) signals no rush to hike rates, as the supply-side inflation outlook improves for next year. Second-round inflation risks are limited, despite temporary rises this year from energy prices. The current 1.00% policy rate remains appropriate for economic recovery.
The MPC unanimously held rates in April, noting a dimmed economic outlook and heightened risks from the Middle East conflict. Consumption-based stimulus offers only transient support; focus remains on structural transformation. Growth forecasts rose to 2.1% this year and 2.6% for next, aided by a 400B baht loan decree. Headline inflation is projected at 3.1% this year, easing to 1.4% by 2027, within the 1-3% target.
Thailand's central bank (BoT) signals no rush to hike rates, as the supply-side inflation outlook improves for next year. Second-round inflation risks are limited, despite temporary rises this year from energy prices. The current 1.00% policy rate remains appropriate for economic recovery.
The MPC unanimously held rates in April, noting a dimmed economic outlook and heightened risks from the Middle East conflict. Consumption-based stimulus offers only transient support; focus remains on structural transformation. Growth forecasts rose to 2.1% this year and 2.6% for next, aided by a 400B baht loan decree. Headline inflation is projected at 3.1% this year, easing to 1.4% by 2027, within the 1-3% target.
Global Governments Shield Consumers from Surging Energy Costs
Governments worldwide are deploying varied measures to protect households from soaring energy expenses, attributed to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Strategies include direct fuel subsidies, tax cuts, and releasing national reserves. Many nations are promoting energy conservation, public transport, or boosting domestic production.
Other actions involve controlling exports, capping essential prices, and accelerating alternative fuel blends, showcasing a global effort to ease the economic burden.
Governments worldwide are deploying varied measures to protect households from soaring energy expenses, attributed to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Strategies include direct fuel subsidies, tax cuts, and releasing national reserves. Many nations are promoting energy conservation, public transport, or boosting domestic production.
Other actions involve controlling exports, capping essential prices, and accelerating alternative fuel blends, showcasing a global effort to ease the economic burden.
Verus DeFi Protocol Suffers $11M Exploit, Rattles ETH Market
Ethereum's price is struggling to hold $2,100 following a significant cross-chain bridge exploit. The Verus-Ethereum bridge was targeted, leading to an attacker draining 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC. This haul was then swapped for 5,402.4 ETH, valued at over $11 million.
This incident highlights ongoing systemic risks, echoing past large bridge exploits like Kelp DAO's $293M and Drift's $270M losses. Such vulnerabilities consistently result in major financial drains within the DeFi ecosystem.
Currently, ETH trades around $2,110 with weak momentum (RSI 34). Maintaining the $2,100 support level is critical; a breach could trigger further declines. Resistance levels are noted at $2,200 and $2,250. This exploit adds considerable friction to any potential recovery for Ethereum.
Ethereum's price is struggling to hold $2,100 following a significant cross-chain bridge exploit. The Verus-Ethereum bridge was targeted, leading to an attacker draining 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC. This haul was then swapped for 5,402.4 ETH, valued at over $11 million.
This incident highlights ongoing systemic risks, echoing past large bridge exploits like Kelp DAO's $293M and Drift's $270M losses. Such vulnerabilities consistently result in major financial drains within the DeFi ecosystem.
Currently, ETH trades around $2,110 with weak momentum (RSI 34). Maintaining the $2,100 support level is critical; a breach could trigger further declines. Resistance levels are noted at $2,200 and $2,250. This exploit adds considerable friction to any potential recovery for Ethereum.
Brokerages Forecast S&P 500 Rally in 2026 Amid Global Challenges
Top investment banks anticipate the S&P 500 index will continue its ascent into 2026. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions potentially disrupting energy flows and fueling inflation, strategists believe strong corporate earnings and momentum in artificial intelligence will largely counteract short-term economic impacts.
However, a persistent rise in oil prices remains a significant risk, potentially increasing recessionary pressures. Forecasts for the S&P 500 generally range from the low 7,000s to over 8,000, with Morgan Stanley recently raising its target. Global GDP growth is projected between 2.4% and 3.3%, while US growth is seen around 1.7% to 2.6%.
Top investment banks anticipate the S&P 500 index will continue its ascent into 2026. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions potentially disrupting energy flows and fueling inflation, strategists believe strong corporate earnings and momentum in artificial intelligence will largely counteract short-term economic impacts.
However, a persistent rise in oil prices remains a significant risk, potentially increasing recessionary pressures. Forecasts for the S&P 500 generally range from the low 7,000s to over 8,000, with Morgan Stanley recently raising its target. Global GDP growth is projected between 2.4% and 3.3%, while US growth is seen around 1.7% to 2.6%.
Corn Futures Hold Steady as US-China Summit Unfolds
CBOT corn futures saw little change Wednesday, as traders awaited outcomes from the U.S.-China leadership summit in Beijing. President Trump is currently meeting President Xi, advocating for increased U.S. business access.
Market participants are keenly watching for potential Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. corn, wheat, or distillers dried grains. While a farm deal might emerge, analysts anticipate no major new soybean purchases beyond existing agreements.
July corn futures gained 3/4 cent to $4.80-3/4 per bushel, marking its highest level since May 5. Separately, weekly U.S. ethanol production increased while inventories declined.
CBOT corn futures saw little change Wednesday, as traders awaited outcomes from the U.S.-China leadership summit in Beijing. President Trump is currently meeting President Xi, advocating for increased U.S. business access.
Market participants are keenly watching for potential Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. corn, wheat, or distillers dried grains. While a farm deal might emerge, analysts anticipate no major new soybean purchases beyond existing agreements.
July corn futures gained 3/4 cent to $4.80-3/4 per bushel, marking its highest level since May 5. Separately, weekly U.S. ethanol production increased while inventories declined.
BofA Weighs Stagflation Risk Amid Elevated Inflation
Bank of America economists are debating whether the US economy faces stagflation or reflation, as supply and demand shocks persist and inflation remains above target.
April inflation data surprised higher: core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, and headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year. Despite this, consumer spending shows resilience, with robust retail sales and BofA's aggregated card data indicating growth. This suggests reflation, but fading fiscal tailwinds could test consumer and labor strength.
BofA anticipates hawkish FOMC minutes, reinforcing the Fed’s tough stance on persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The bank now expects no Fed rate cuts this year, pushing any potential cuts to late 2026-2027. A tightening labor market would be crucial for reflation and rate hikes to become the bank’s base case scenario.
Bank of America economists are debating whether the US economy faces stagflation or reflation, as supply and demand shocks persist and inflation remains above target.
April inflation data surprised higher: core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, and headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year. Despite this, consumer spending shows resilience, with robust retail sales and BofA's aggregated card data indicating growth. This suggests reflation, but fading fiscal tailwinds could test consumer and labor strength.
BofA anticipates hawkish FOMC minutes, reinforcing the Fed’s tough stance on persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The bank now expects no Fed rate cuts this year, pushing any potential cuts to late 2026-2027. A tightening labor market would be crucial for reflation and rate hikes to become the bank’s base case scenario.