Oil Surges Over 1% After UAE Drone Attack
Crude prices climbed Monday, driven by a drone attack on a UAE nuclear power plant. This incident coincided with stalled efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and reports that President Trump is weighing military options against Tehran.
Brent crude rose 1.24% to $110.62/barrel, while U.S. WTI gained 1.75% to $107.26/barrel.
Crude prices climbed Monday, driven by a drone attack on a UAE nuclear power plant. This incident coincided with stalled efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and reports that President Trump is weighing military options against Tehran.
Brent crude rose 1.24% to $110.62/barrel, while U.S. WTI gained 1.75% to $107.26/barrel.
Bitcoin Steadies Amid Geopolitical Jitters and Inflation Watch
Bitcoin saw minimal movement today, hovering near $81,276. Market sentiment remains cautious due to escalating US-Iran tensions, with President Trump reportedly considering military options, which trimmed earlier weekend gains to $82,000.
Investors are also keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A significant rise in inflation, potentially driven by energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, could further dampen expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Such a scenario typically bodes poorly for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Broader altcoin markets also reflect this cautious mood.
Bitcoin saw minimal movement today, hovering near $81,276. Market sentiment remains cautious due to escalating US-Iran tensions, with President Trump reportedly considering military options, which trimmed earlier weekend gains to $82,000.
Investors are also keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A significant rise in inflation, potentially driven by energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, could further dampen expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Such a scenario typically bodes poorly for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Broader altcoin markets also reflect this cautious mood.
Inflation Fears Mount as Global Stocks Hit New Records
US producer prices saw their biggest monthly jump in four years, fueling expectations of a possible Fed rate hike. Core consumer prices also rose above forecasts, pushing bond yields higher.
Despite inflation concerns, global stock markets are surging. Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs. European and Asian shares also climbed, with Japan's Nikkei hitting a new peak. The AI boom continues to drive gains, as the semiconductor index soared 64% in six weeks. TSMC upped its chip demand forecast to $1.5 trillion by 2030.
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes over tomorrow. US-China talks yielded little for investors.
US producer prices saw their biggest monthly jump in four years, fueling expectations of a possible Fed rate hike. Core consumer prices also rose above forecasts, pushing bond yields higher.
Despite inflation concerns, global stock markets are surging. Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs. European and Asian shares also climbed, with Japan's Nikkei hitting a new peak. The AI boom continues to drive gains, as the semiconductor index soared 64% in six weeks. TSMC upped its chip demand forecast to $1.5 trillion by 2030.
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes over tomorrow. US-China talks yielded little for investors.
Inflation Shakes Markets, Chips Down
US equities, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell as April's stronger-than-expected 3.8% CPI — a 3-year high — rattled sentiment, pushing bond yields higher and dimming hopes for rate cuts. Real wage growth turned negative.
Semiconductor stocks took a hit, with the SOX index dropping 3%. Qualcomm plunged 11.5% and Intel 7%, amidst broader tech weakness. This followed a significant rally and new scrutiny over AI firm Anthropic's share transfer policies.
Elsewhere, oil prices rose past $100 a barrel. The UK saw its 30-year bond yields surge to 1998 highs and Sterling weaken, as political pressure mounted on Keir Starmer after recent election setbacks, raising concerns over future fiscal policy.
US equities, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell as April's stronger-than-expected 3.8% CPI — a 3-year high — rattled sentiment, pushing bond yields higher and dimming hopes for rate cuts. Real wage growth turned negative.
Semiconductor stocks took a hit, with the SOX index dropping 3%. Qualcomm plunged 11.5% and Intel 7%, amidst broader tech weakness. This followed a significant rally and new scrutiny over AI firm Anthropic's share transfer policies.
Elsewhere, oil prices rose past $100 a barrel. The UK saw its 30-year bond yields surge to 1998 highs and Sterling weaken, as political pressure mounted on Keir Starmer after recent election setbacks, raising concerns over future fiscal policy.
Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Not Reached, Warn Experts
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan states Bitcoin has not yet hit its cycle bottom, despite the February 6th drop. He foresees more "shocks" and believes the crypto winter started in January 2025. Hougan suggests institutional involvement could limit future post-halving drawdowns to 50-60%, a "new reality" differing from historical 80-90% drops.
Conversely, Santiment reports an "alarming" divergence: retail aggressively buys dips while institutions have sold significant volumes. They also note declining on-chain activity. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden concurs, predicting a "stagnation" phase where Bitcoin could fall another $10,000-$20,000. She notes V-shaped bottoms are rare without external economic stimulus.
Santiment also points to positive signals like reduced overly optimistic social media forecasts and a 30-day MVRV of -6, indicating potential for a recovery rally.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan states Bitcoin has not yet hit its cycle bottom, despite the February 6th drop. He foresees more "shocks" and believes the crypto winter started in January 2025. Hougan suggests institutional involvement could limit future post-halving drawdowns to 50-60%, a "new reality" differing from historical 80-90% drops.
Conversely, Santiment reports an "alarming" divergence: retail aggressively buys dips while institutions have sold significant volumes. They also note declining on-chain activity. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden concurs, predicting a "stagnation" phase where Bitcoin could fall another $10,000-$20,000. She notes V-shaped bottoms are rare without external economic stimulus.
Santiment also points to positive signals like reduced overly optimistic social media forecasts and a 30-day MVRV of -6, indicating potential for a recovery rally.
Kelp & Aave Begin Major Asset Recovery After $292M Hack
Protocols Kelp and Aave have commenced asset recovery following April's $292M exploit. Developers plan to return 117,132 rsETH to users within two weeks.
Key recovery steps are complete, including burning the exploiter's rsETH on Arbitrum. Funds will be progressively refilled from Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe into the LayerZero OFT adapter on mainnet. Kelp anticipates reopening withdrawals within 24 hours of the first mainnet transfer, reinstating deposits, minting, and cross-chain transfers.
Security upgrades have been implemented: LayerZero bridge now uses four independent nodes and 64 blocks for transaction confirmation, up from one node and 42 blocks. Kelp is also transitioning to Chainlink's CCIP. LayerZero previously acknowledged its default security was insufficient for high-value protocols. This incident, likely by Lazarus Group, was the year's largest DeFi hack.
Protocols Kelp and Aave have commenced asset recovery following April's $292M exploit. Developers plan to return 117,132 rsETH to users within two weeks.
Key recovery steps are complete, including burning the exploiter's rsETH on Arbitrum. Funds will be progressively refilled from Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe into the LayerZero OFT adapter on mainnet. Kelp anticipates reopening withdrawals within 24 hours of the first mainnet transfer, reinstating deposits, minting, and cross-chain transfers.
Security upgrades have been implemented: LayerZero bridge now uses four independent nodes and 64 blocks for transaction confirmation, up from one node and 42 blocks. Kelp is also transitioning to Chainlink's CCIP. LayerZero previously acknowledged its default security was insufficient for high-value protocols. This incident, likely by Lazarus Group, was the year's largest DeFi hack.
Gold Plummets to 1.5-Month Low Amid Rising Yields & Iran Tensions
Gold prices reached a 1.5-month low in Asian trade, pressured by surging global yields and heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $4,483.67/oz.
Markets fear a prolonged Middle East conflict will fuel energy-driven inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. This boosts the appeal of other assets over non-yielding gold, increasing its opportunity cost. US 10-year Treasury yields hit a one-month high, while Japanese 10-year yields reached a 29-year peak.
Tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump issuing warnings and considering renewed military action as peace talks stall. A strengthening dollar also added pressure on broader metal prices, with silver and platinum also seeing declines.
Gold prices reached a 1.5-month low in Asian trade, pressured by surging global yields and heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $4,483.67/oz.
Markets fear a prolonged Middle East conflict will fuel energy-driven inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. This boosts the appeal of other assets over non-yielding gold, increasing its opportunity cost. US 10-year Treasury yields hit a one-month high, while Japanese 10-year yields reached a 29-year peak.
Tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump issuing warnings and considering renewed military action as peace talks stall. A strengthening dollar also added pressure on broader metal prices, with silver and platinum also seeing declines.
Japan's Q1 GDP Expected to Show Second Quarter of Growth
Japan's economy likely expanded for a second consecutive quarter in Q1, fueled by recovering exports and solid domestic demand. A Reuters poll forecasts an annualized GDP growth of 1.7% for January-March, following a 1.3% rise in the previous quarter.
Private consumption and capital investment remained relatively firm. While Middle East tensions had a limited economic impact in Q1, analysts caution about potential future downside risks from higher crude oil prices and supply constraints. Net external demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to the growth.
This economic data will be a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it considers future interest rate adjustments. The preliminary Q1 GDP figures are due on May 19.
Japan's economy likely expanded for a second consecutive quarter in Q1, fueled by recovering exports and solid domestic demand. A Reuters poll forecasts an annualized GDP growth of 1.7% for January-March, following a 1.3% rise in the previous quarter.
Private consumption and capital investment remained relatively firm. While Middle East tensions had a limited economic impact in Q1, analysts caution about potential future downside risks from higher crude oil prices and supply constraints. Net external demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to the growth.
This economic data will be a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it considers future interest rate adjustments. The preliminary Q1 GDP figures are due on May 19.
GE Aerospace CEO Visits China's State Planner
GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp was in Beijing Friday, visiting the headquarters of China's powerful state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This follows China's agreement to order 200 Boeing jets, a deal struck after President Trump's talks with Xi Jinping.
This marks China's first US-made commercial jet purchase in nearly a decade. As Boeing's primary engine supplier, GE Aerospace stands to benefit, despite the order falling short of market expectations. Culp is part of a US business delegation accompanying Trump. GE Aerospace offered no immediate comment on the visit's purpose.
GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp was in Beijing Friday, visiting the headquarters of China's powerful state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This follows China's agreement to order 200 Boeing jets, a deal struck after President Trump's talks with Xi Jinping.
This marks China's first US-made commercial jet purchase in nearly a decade. As Boeing's primary engine supplier, GE Aerospace stands to benefit, despite the order falling short of market expectations. Culp is part of a US business delegation accompanying Trump. GE Aerospace offered no immediate comment on the visit's purpose.
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as New Fed Chair
The U.S. Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh, a 56-year-old lawyer and financier, as the next Federal Reserve Chair. He assumes leadership from Jerome Powell, whose term ends Friday, as the central bank grapples with rising inflation and interest rate debates.
His confirmation followed Republican-majority approval, with Senator Thom Tillis lifting his blockade after the DOJ cleared Powell of a renovation inquiry. Many Democrats opposed Warsh, fearing for the central bank's monetary policy independence and questioning his autonomy from the Trump administration. Powell will remain a Fed governor.
Warsh has pledged to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, calling its bond holdings "__fiscal policy in disguise__." His tenure begins amid debates on potential rate hikes to combat inflation spreading beyond tariffs and oil price impacts.
The U.S. Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh, a 56-year-old lawyer and financier, as the next Federal Reserve Chair. He assumes leadership from Jerome Powell, whose term ends Friday, as the central bank grapples with rising inflation and interest rate debates.
His confirmation followed Republican-majority approval, with Senator Thom Tillis lifting his blockade after the DOJ cleared Powell of a renovation inquiry. Many Democrats opposed Warsh, fearing for the central bank's monetary policy independence and questioning his autonomy from the Trump administration. Powell will remain a Fed governor.
Warsh has pledged to shrink the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, calling its bond holdings "__fiscal policy in disguise__." His tenure begins amid debates on potential rate hikes to combat inflation spreading beyond tariffs and oil price impacts.
Russian Gold Producer Stake Auction Fails
Russia's auction of a 67.2% stake in gold producer Uzhuralzoloto, seized from businessman Konstantin Strukov, failed to attract any bidders. The federal agency Rosimushchestvo had valued the stake at 140.43 billion roubles.
The sale was declared invalid due to a lack of applications by the submission deadline. A court ruling in July had transferred the majority stake to state ownership, part of Russia's broader asset nationalizations. Uzhuralzoloto is one of Russia's top 10 gold mining companies.
Russia's auction of a 67.2% stake in gold producer Uzhuralzoloto, seized from businessman Konstantin Strukov, failed to attract any bidders. The federal agency Rosimushchestvo had valued the stake at 140.43 billion roubles.
The sale was declared invalid due to a lack of applications by the submission deadline. A court ruling in July had transferred the majority stake to state ownership, part of Russia's broader asset nationalizations. Uzhuralzoloto is one of Russia's top 10 gold mining companies.
Dune Analytics Cuts 25% of Staff, Shifts Focus to AI and Institutions
Dune Analytics announced a major restructuring, leading to a 25% reduction in its workforce. CEO Fredrik Haga stated the move aims to sharpen focus on core data products, AI implementation, and institutional clients.
The platform will prioritize AI integration and catering to traditional finance, expecting a mass migration of assets to blockchain. They also launched Dune MCP for simplified dashboard creation without SQL knowledge. Haga assured the company retains sufficient capital and continues to ensure on-chain data accessibility.
This trend is not isolated. Coinbase and Block also announced cuts, with DL News closing due to similar shifts. OpenAI's Sam Altman previously suggested AI is sometimes an excuse for layoffs, while Snap replaced 1000 employees with AI to save $500M.
Dune Analytics announced a major restructuring, leading to a 25% reduction in its workforce. CEO Fredrik Haga stated the move aims to sharpen focus on core data products, AI implementation, and institutional clients.
The platform will prioritize AI integration and catering to traditional finance, expecting a mass migration of assets to blockchain. They also launched Dune MCP for simplified dashboard creation without SQL knowledge. Haga assured the company retains sufficient capital and continues to ensure on-chain data accessibility.
This trend is not isolated. Coinbase and Block also announced cuts, with DL News closing due to similar shifts. OpenAI's Sam Altman previously suggested AI is sometimes an excuse for layoffs, while Snap replaced 1000 employees with AI to save $500M.
Brazil Police Target Ex-Rio Governor, Refit Owner in Tax Probe
Brazilian federal police are investigating former Rio de Janeiro governor Claudio Castro and Refit refinery owner Ricardo Magro. The probe focuses on a fuel industry conglomerate suspected of tax evasion, asset concealment, and transferring funds abroad.
The Supreme Court has frozen approximately 52 billion reais ($10.4 billion) in assets and suspended the implicated companies' operations. A suspect is also slated for an Interpol Red Notice.
This development follows President Lula's past call for the US to arrest the Refit owner, who resides there. Castro resigned in March and was previously barred from office for eight years over electoral misconduct.
Brazilian federal police are investigating former Rio de Janeiro governor Claudio Castro and Refit refinery owner Ricardo Magro. The probe focuses on a fuel industry conglomerate suspected of tax evasion, asset concealment, and transferring funds abroad.
The Supreme Court has frozen approximately 52 billion reais ($10.4 billion) in assets and suspended the implicated companies' operations. A suspect is also slated for an Interpol Red Notice.
This development follows President Lula's past call for the US to arrest the Refit owner, who resides there. Castro resigned in March and was previously barred from office for eight years over electoral misconduct.
Iran Demands Release of Citizens Detained by Kuwait
Iran's Foreign Minister stated Kuwait unlawfully attacked an Iranian boat, detaining four citizens in the Gulf. Tehran demands their immediate release and reserves response rights.
Kuwait had announced it arrested four alleged Revolutionary Guards members attempting sea infiltration. This marks the latest regional tension between the nations.
Iran's Foreign Minister stated Kuwait unlawfully attacked an Iranian boat, detaining four citizens in the Gulf. Tehran demands their immediate release and reserves response rights.
Kuwait had announced it arrested four alleged Revolutionary Guards members attempting sea infiltration. This marks the latest regional tension between the nations.
Treasury Yields Surge to May 2025 Highs Amid Oil Jumps & Inflation
Longer-dated Treasury yields hit May 2025 highs Friday, driven by a 3% oil price surge. Trump's comments on Iran amplified fears of Middle East energy disruptions, boosting inflation concerns.
This week's data already showed US consumer prices at a three-year high and producer prices seeing their largest jump in four years. The 2-year note yield climbed to 4.062%, the 10-year to 4.552%, and the 30-year to 5.0992% – all reaching levels last seen in March/May 2025.
Longer-dated Treasury yields hit May 2025 highs Friday, driven by a 3% oil price surge. Trump's comments on Iran amplified fears of Middle East energy disruptions, boosting inflation concerns.
This week's data already showed US consumer prices at a three-year high and producer prices seeing their largest jump in four years. The 2-year note yield climbed to 4.062%, the 10-year to 4.552%, and the 30-year to 5.0992% – all reaching levels last seen in March/May 2025.
BoE Rates Seen Stable, Yet Hike Calls Grow Amid Inflation Fears
A Reuters poll suggests the Bank of England will hold borrowing costs at 3.75% this year. However, nearly 40% of economists now foresee at least one rate hike, a significant shift. This change is fueled by the Iran war's impact on energy prices, pushing inflation forecasts higher to 3.6% by Q4, well above the 2% target.
Financial markets, meanwhile, price in two rises. Despite Governor Bailey's caution against expecting hikes, BoE chief economist Huw Pill voted for an increase last month. Analysts, including HSBC, are adjusting their models, with some now predicting multiple hikes. While tight financial conditions might ease pressure, renewed cost-of-living strains are anticipated, adding complexity to the BoE's future decisions.
A Reuters poll suggests the Bank of England will hold borrowing costs at 3.75% this year. However, nearly 40% of economists now foresee at least one rate hike, a significant shift. This change is fueled by the Iran war's impact on energy prices, pushing inflation forecasts higher to 3.6% by Q4, well above the 2% target.
Financial markets, meanwhile, price in two rises. Despite Governor Bailey's caution against expecting hikes, BoE chief economist Huw Pill voted for an increase last month. Analysts, including HSBC, are adjusting their models, with some now predicting multiple hikes. While tight financial conditions might ease pressure, renewed cost-of-living strains are anticipated, adding complexity to the BoE's future decisions.
US, Japan Pledge "Robust" FX Coordination Amid Yen Volatility
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted "constant and robust" coordination with Japan on "undesirable, excessively volatile" currency moves following talks with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama in Tokyo. This implies Washington's broad understanding of Japan's recent yen-buying intervention, aimed at countering its weakening currency and rising import costs.
Katayama confirmed Japan's responses align with a joint US-Japan statement permitting intervention against excessive market volatility. She emphasized the ongoing need for close coordination. While markets hoped for stronger warnings against yen weakness, Bessent's statements underscored continued cooperation. Bessent also met with Japan's METI minister to strengthen ties in energy and critical minerals.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted "constant and robust" coordination with Japan on "undesirable, excessively volatile" currency moves following talks with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama in Tokyo. This implies Washington's broad understanding of Japan's recent yen-buying intervention, aimed at countering its weakening currency and rising import costs.
Katayama confirmed Japan's responses align with a joint US-Japan statement permitting intervention against excessive market volatility. She emphasized the ongoing need for close coordination. While markets hoped for stronger warnings against yen weakness, Bessent's statements underscored continued cooperation. Bessent also met with Japan's METI minister to strengthen ties in energy and critical minerals.
Copper Plunges Amid Strong Dollar, Weak China Data
Copper prices hit a week-low Monday, pressured by a robust U.S. dollar, disappointing economic figures from top consumer China, and rising oil prices.
The London Metal Exchange's benchmark three-month contract dropped 2.75% to $13,555.00 per metric ton. This decline highlights the impact of currency shifts and China's economic health on industrial metals.
Copper prices hit a week-low Monday, pressured by a robust U.S. dollar, disappointing economic figures from top consumer China, and rising oil prices.
The London Metal Exchange's benchmark three-month contract dropped 2.75% to $13,555.00 per metric ton. This decline highlights the impact of currency shifts and China's economic health on industrial metals.
New Zealand Inflation Expectations Climb in Q2
A recent Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey indicates a projected rise in the nation's near-term inflation over the next two years. Two-year inflation expectations, a key metric for RBNZ policy, increased to 2.53% in Q2 from 2.37% in Q1. Additionally, the survey revealed a jump in one-year price increase forecasts, reaching 3.41% from 2.59% previously.
A recent Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey indicates a projected rise in the nation's near-term inflation over the next two years. Two-year inflation expectations, a key metric for RBNZ policy, increased to 2.53% in Q2 from 2.37% in Q1. Additionally, the survey revealed a jump in one-year price increase forecasts, reaching 3.41% from 2.59% previously.
Samsung Strike Threatens South Korea's Economy
Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol warned a potential Samsung Electronics strike poses a significant risk to South Korea's economic growth, exports, and markets. The chipmaking giant and its union failed to agree on a pay deal. Unionized workers plan an 18-day strike beginning May 21.
Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol warned a potential Samsung Electronics strike poses a significant risk to South Korea's economic growth, exports, and markets. The chipmaking giant and its union failed to agree on a pay deal. Unionized workers plan an 18-day strike beginning May 21.
Bhutan Denies Major Bitcoin Reserve Sale
A representative for Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) has refuted claims that Bhutan sold off a significant portion of its national Bitcoin reserve.
According to Arkham Intelligence, the kingdom held approximately 13,000 BTC at its peak, but much was reportedly moved and sold, with only 3121 BTC remaining in a tracked wallet. Despite DHI's denial ("_I don't recall when we last sold Bitcoins_"), the representative declined to comment on fund movements, nor did they deny Arkham's tracked addresses or confirm remaining crypto volumes. Arkham analysts suggest transfers to centralized exchanges like OKX and Galaxy Digital strongly indicate sales.
A representative for Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) has refuted claims that Bhutan sold off a significant portion of its national Bitcoin reserve.
According to Arkham Intelligence, the kingdom held approximately 13,000 BTC at its peak, but much was reportedly moved and sold, with only 3121 BTC remaining in a tracked wallet. Despite DHI's denial ("_I don't recall when we last sold Bitcoins_"), the representative declined to comment on fund movements, nor did they deny Arkham's tracked addresses or confirm remaining crypto volumes. Arkham analysts suggest transfers to centralized exchanges like OKX and Galaxy Digital strongly indicate sales.