Kremlin Holds High Expectations for Putin's China Visit
Russia anticipates significant outcomes from President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to China on Tuesday and Wednesday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov characterized the nations' relationship as a "particularly privileged and strategic partnership."
The visit aims to further bolster this partnership, which has deepened since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia after the Ukraine conflict. Russia, a major natural resources producer, will send a high-level delegation. Discussions are expected to encompass all bilateral economic matters, including the potential Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Russia anticipates significant outcomes from President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to China on Tuesday and Wednesday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov characterized the nations' relationship as a "particularly privileged and strategic partnership."
The visit aims to further bolster this partnership, which has deepened since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia after the Ukraine conflict. Russia, a major natural resources producer, will send a high-level delegation. Discussions are expected to encompass all bilateral economic matters, including the potential Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Federal Regulators Crack Down on Prediction Market Bets
Federal prosecutors and regulators are cracking down on suspicious betting in political prediction markets. The CFTC and Justice Department are demanding information from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
This follows a surge in wagers tied to political events, laws, and military operations, fueling insider trading concerns. Examples include a soldier's $400k profit on Polymarket from confidential intel on Venezuela's leader, and suspicious oil bets before an Iran strike announcement.
Oversight gaps are highlighted: Kalshi lacks employer data, while offshore Polymarket skips user identity verification. Officials warn of "serious consequences for market integrity" as existing laws, designed for corporate stocks, struggle with government actions. More cases are expected.
Federal prosecutors and regulators are cracking down on suspicious betting in political prediction markets. The CFTC and Justice Department are demanding information from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
This follows a surge in wagers tied to political events, laws, and military operations, fueling insider trading concerns. Examples include a soldier's $400k profit on Polymarket from confidential intel on Venezuela's leader, and suspicious oil bets before an Iran strike announcement.
Oversight gaps are highlighted: Kalshi lacks employer data, while offshore Polymarket skips user identity verification. Officials warn of "serious consequences for market integrity" as existing laws, designed for corporate stocks, struggle with government actions. More cases are expected.
Pakistan Delivers Revised Iran Peace Plan to US
Mediator Pakistan has shared a revised Iranian proposal with the US to end the Mideast conflict. A Pakistani source warned sides "don’t have much time" to narrow differences. Iran's FM confirmed views were conveyed, but gave no details.
A fragile ceasefire holds after six weeks, but talks are stalled. President Trump warned Iran "the Clock is Ticking," urging them to "get moving, FAST," and is set to discuss military options.
Sticking points include Iran's nuclear program and US demands for open Hormuz, against Iran's call for war compensation, end to blockades, and security guarantees. Recent drone attacks on Gulf nations have heightened tensions, pushing oil prices up and fueling inflation worries. The conflict's impact on gas prices also poses political risks for Trump ahead of midterm elections.
Mediator Pakistan has shared a revised Iranian proposal with the US to end the Mideast conflict. A Pakistani source warned sides "don’t have much time" to narrow differences. Iran's FM confirmed views were conveyed, but gave no details.
A fragile ceasefire holds after six weeks, but talks are stalled. President Trump warned Iran "the Clock is Ticking," urging them to "get moving, FAST," and is set to discuss military options.
Sticking points include Iran's nuclear program and US demands for open Hormuz, against Iran's call for war compensation, end to blockades, and security guarantees. Recent drone attacks on Gulf nations have heightened tensions, pushing oil prices up and fueling inflation worries. The conflict's impact on gas prices also poses political risks for Trump ahead of midterm elections.
Japan Considers Supplementary Budget for Energy Costs, Kyodo Reports
Japan's government is reportedly weighing a supplementary budget to assist households struggling with elevated gasoline and utility expenses. This measure comes amidst the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has contributed to rising energy prices.
Japan's government is reportedly weighing a supplementary budget to assist households struggling with elevated gasoline and utility expenses. This measure comes amidst the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has contributed to rising energy prices.
Lock.com Launches Early Access with Innovative Crypto Wallet Security
Quantography Labs unveils Lock.com, a hardware-free crypto wallet now in early access. It redefines digital asset security with an isolated, air-gapped approach.
It eliminates dedicated hardware wallets; private keys stay on a fully offline signer, never touching the internet, while transactions broadcast from connected devices. This leverages existing user hardware, addressing current crypto security flaws and preventing common fund losses.
The architecture integrates advanced post-quantum cryptographic standards like ML-DSA and ML-KEM. Early access aims to gather user feedback for future general availability.
Quantography Labs unveils Lock.com, a hardware-free crypto wallet now in early access. It redefines digital asset security with an isolated, air-gapped approach.
It eliminates dedicated hardware wallets; private keys stay on a fully offline signer, never touching the internet, while transactions broadcast from connected devices. This leverages existing user hardware, addressing current crypto security flaws and preventing common fund losses.
The architecture integrates advanced post-quantum cryptographic standards like ML-DSA and ML-KEM. Early access aims to gather user feedback for future general availability.
Harvard Endowment Chief Narvekar to Retire After Decade of Turnaround
N.P. "Narv" Narvekar, CEO of Harvard University’s $56.9 billion endowment, has notified the board of his retirement plans, eyeing a late 2027 departure for succession planning.
Hired in 2016, Narvekar inherited a $35.7 billion fund with structural performance lags. He spearheaded a comprehensive operational restructuring, moving to an agile generalist framework with 90% external asset management.
This overhaul lifted performance, yielding an 8.1% annualized return over three years, outpacing rivals and reversing earlier lags. His strategy involved liquidating underperforming assets, doubling allocations to private equity/venture capital, and boosting hedge fund exposure, securing lucrative allocations and direct stakes.
The endowment remains Harvard's crucial fiscal anchor, providing a significant portion of its operating budget.
N.P. "Narv" Narvekar, CEO of Harvard University’s $56.9 billion endowment, has notified the board of his retirement plans, eyeing a late 2027 departure for succession planning.
Hired in 2016, Narvekar inherited a $35.7 billion fund with structural performance lags. He spearheaded a comprehensive operational restructuring, moving to an agile generalist framework with 90% external asset management.
This overhaul lifted performance, yielding an 8.1% annualized return over three years, outpacing rivals and reversing earlier lags. His strategy involved liquidating underperforming assets, doubling allocations to private equity/venture capital, and boosting hedge fund exposure, securing lucrative allocations and direct stakes.
The endowment remains Harvard's crucial fiscal anchor, providing a significant portion of its operating budget.
Bitcoin Advocate Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair
The US Senate has approved Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell whose term concludes May 15. Warsh secured approval with 54 votes to 45, beginning a four-year term as chair and a 14-year term on the Board of Governors. He previously served on the Fed's board from 2006 to 2011.
Warsh is recognized for his supportive stance on digital assets, once labeling Bitcoin an "important asset" for economic assessment. Financial disclosures show his investments in crypto ventures such as dYdX, Polychain Capital, and Dapper Labs, alongside holdings in Solana and Optimism tokens. His tenure is expected to focus on interest rate policy, a key area of past debate.
The US Senate has approved Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell whose term concludes May 15. Warsh secured approval with 54 votes to 45, beginning a four-year term as chair and a 14-year term on the Board of Governors. He previously served on the Fed's board from 2006 to 2011.
Warsh is recognized for his supportive stance on digital assets, once labeling Bitcoin an "important asset" for economic assessment. Financial disclosures show his investments in crypto ventures such as dYdX, Polychain Capital, and Dapper Labs, alongside holdings in Solana and Optimism tokens. His tenure is expected to focus on interest rate policy, a key area of past debate.
Trump Dismisses China's Role in Iran Conflict
President Trump, en route to China, stated he doesn't need Beijing's help to resolve the Iran war or secure the Strait of Hormuz. He asserted the US would "win" the conflict, "peacefully or otherwise." Despite a tenuous ceasefire, US and Iranian demands remain far apart, with Washington seeking an end to Tehran's nuclear program and free passage, while Iran demands compensation and an end to blockades.
Iran appears to be solidifying its control over the Strait, making deals with regional partners. Meanwhile, Trump dismissed economic pressures on Americans as a factor in his strategy, insisting his sole focus is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The conflict has severely impacted global oil supplies and is unpopular with US voters. Iranian officials remain defiant, expanding their Strait of Hormuz zone and conducting military drills.
President Trump, en route to China, stated he doesn't need Beijing's help to resolve the Iran war or secure the Strait of Hormuz. He asserted the US would "win" the conflict, "peacefully or otherwise." Despite a tenuous ceasefire, US and Iranian demands remain far apart, with Washington seeking an end to Tehran's nuclear program and free passage, while Iran demands compensation and an end to blockades.
Iran appears to be solidifying its control over the Strait, making deals with regional partners. Meanwhile, Trump dismissed economic pressures on Americans as a factor in his strategy, insisting his sole focus is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The conflict has severely impacted global oil supplies and is unpopular with US voters. Iranian officials remain defiant, expanding their Strait of Hormuz zone and conducting military drills.
Hungary's New Finance Minister Vows Euro Adoption by 2030
Hungary's new Finance Minister, Andras Karman, has pledged a significant economic policy overhaul under Prime Minister Peter Magyar. He aims to unlock frozen European Union funding within months and meet all criteria for euro adoption by 2030.
Karman stated the nation's economy requires a "change of direction," moving away from the previous government's reliance on a weakening currency. Plans include reforming taxation and economic planning for greater transparency and predictability.
This shift comes amid criticism of stagnant growth under the former administration. The new government targets a budget deficit below 3% of GDP, a key step towards euro readiness.
Hungary's new Finance Minister, Andras Karman, has pledged a significant economic policy overhaul under Prime Minister Peter Magyar. He aims to unlock frozen European Union funding within months and meet all criteria for euro adoption by 2030.
Karman stated the nation's economy requires a "change of direction," moving away from the previous government's reliance on a weakening currency. Plans include reforming taxation and economic planning for greater transparency and predictability.
This shift comes amid criticism of stagnant growth under the former administration. The new government targets a budget deficit below 3% of GDP, a key step towards euro readiness.
BNP Paribas & Dubai Advance Asset Tokenization
BNP Paribas Asset Management has launched an Ethereum-based pilot to tokenize money market funds. This initiative issues tokenized MMF shares via AssetFoundry, exploring how public blockchains integrate into regulated financial structures with controlled access for authorized participants. It builds on a previous private blockchain project.
Meanwhile, the Dubai Land Department is progressing its real estate tokenization pilot using XRP Ledger. Following an initial phase that tokenized over $5 million in assets, the current stage focuses on enabling controlled secondary trading of these digital properties, enhancing market efficiency and transparency.
The overall market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) is estimated at $25 billion, with Ethereum leading at $14.9 billion, and XRP Ledger holding $460 million. This trend highlights growing institutional adoption of blockchain for traditional assets.
BNP Paribas Asset Management has launched an Ethereum-based pilot to tokenize money market funds. This initiative issues tokenized MMF shares via AssetFoundry, exploring how public blockchains integrate into regulated financial structures with controlled access for authorized participants. It builds on a previous private blockchain project.
Meanwhile, the Dubai Land Department is progressing its real estate tokenization pilot using XRP Ledger. Following an initial phase that tokenized over $5 million in assets, the current stage focuses on enabling controlled secondary trading of these digital properties, enhancing market efficiency and transparency.
The overall market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) is estimated at $25 billion, with Ethereum leading at $14.9 billion, and XRP Ledger holding $460 million. This trend highlights growing institutional adoption of blockchain for traditional assets.
Vietnam Urges US to Release Oil Tanker Amid Blockade
Vietnam's state oil company, PVOIL, has appealed to the U.S. Navy to permit a crude oil tanker carrying Iraqi oil to pass through its Middle East Gulf blockade. The vessel is crucial for supplying Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery (NSRP), which faces critically low feedstock inventories.
The Maltese-flagged supertanker, Agio Fanourios I, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basra crude, was redirected by U.S. forces in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. military confirmed this as part of its expanded enforcement of a blockade against Iran, which now targets "contraband" cargoes, contributing to disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz region.
PVOIL stressed the cargo's "extreme importance" to Vietnam, asserting it is unequivocally Iraqi crude. They warned that further delays risk halting refinery operations, causing "cascading consequences for millions of Vietnamese consumers, businesses, and public services."
Vietnam's state oil company, PVOIL, has appealed to the U.S. Navy to permit a crude oil tanker carrying Iraqi oil to pass through its Middle East Gulf blockade. The vessel is crucial for supplying Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery (NSRP), which faces critically low feedstock inventories.
The Maltese-flagged supertanker, Agio Fanourios I, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basra crude, was redirected by U.S. forces in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. military confirmed this as part of its expanded enforcement of a blockade against Iran, which now targets "contraband" cargoes, contributing to disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz region.
PVOIL stressed the cargo's "extreme importance" to Vietnam, asserting it is unequivocally Iraqi crude. They warned that further delays risk halting refinery operations, causing "cascading consequences for millions of Vietnamese consumers, businesses, and public services."
Investors Brace for Sustained High US Treasury Yields
Investors are bracing for US Treasury yields to remain higher longer, skeptical incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can tame inflation stoked by surging oil prices amid Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices are seen as the primary inflation driver. Investors demand greater compensation for risk, pushing long-dated yields up.
This directly raises borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds, potentially hurting stocks, economic growth, and profits. Many are cutting long-duration bond exposure; 10-year Treasuries could reach 5%.
Warsh faces challenges; a "dovish" stance on cuts could fuel inflation expectations. Rate hikes won't fix global oil prices. A steeper yield curve is anticipated: short rates steady, long rates climb due to sticky inflation and reduced Fed demand from Warsh's balance sheet plans. Building consensus will take time.
Investors are bracing for US Treasury yields to remain higher longer, skeptical incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can tame inflation stoked by surging oil prices amid Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices are seen as the primary inflation driver. Investors demand greater compensation for risk, pushing long-dated yields up.
This directly raises borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds, potentially hurting stocks, economic growth, and profits. Many are cutting long-duration bond exposure; 10-year Treasuries could reach 5%.
Warsh faces challenges; a "dovish" stance on cuts could fuel inflation expectations. Rate hikes won't fix global oil prices. A steeper yield curve is anticipated: short rates steady, long rates climb due to sticky inflation and reduced Fed demand from Warsh's balance sheet plans. Building consensus will take time.
US Debt Threatens Warsh's Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
Incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's market footprint. However, analysts warn that rising US federal debt and a potential decline in Treasury appeal could severely constrain his efforts.
Reducing the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet risks increasing long-term interest rates, detrimental to businesses and the government, or forcing the Fed to intervene to suppress borrowing costs. Research suggests US Treasuries are losing their "convenience yield," implying higher borrowing expenses for the nation.
While Warsh champions a smaller central bank role, opinions vary. Some experts don't view the current balance sheet as problematic, while others caution against aggressive reduction. Navigating these fiscal realities while pursuing a less interventionist Fed will be a complex task for Warsh.
Incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's market footprint. However, analysts warn that rising US federal debt and a potential decline in Treasury appeal could severely constrain his efforts.
Reducing the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet risks increasing long-term interest rates, detrimental to businesses and the government, or forcing the Fed to intervene to suppress borrowing costs. Research suggests US Treasuries are losing their "convenience yield," implying higher borrowing expenses for the nation.
While Warsh champions a smaller central bank role, opinions vary. Some experts don't view the current balance sheet as problematic, while others caution against aggressive reduction. Navigating these fiscal realities while pursuing a less interventionist Fed will be a complex task for Warsh.
US Treasury Secretary to Meet South Korean President on Wednesday
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Wednesday, according to a statement from the South Korean presidency. Bessent will arrive in South Korea Wednesday morning. His visit also includes a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and participation in trade discussions with a US delegation. These engagements precede a summit of world leaders later this week.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Wednesday, according to a statement from the South Korean presidency. Bessent will arrive in South Korea Wednesday morning. His visit also includes a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and participation in trade discussions with a US delegation. These engagements precede a summit of world leaders later this week.
Casper Network Unveils "Casper Manifest" Roadmap
Casper Network has published its multi-year technical roadmap, the "Casper Manifest," aiming to become the foundational infrastructure for regulated real-world asset tokenization and the emerging machine economy.
The Manifest outlines nine key initiatives, including EVM compatibility, gasless transactions, and smart accounts for enhanced user experience. It also focuses on compliant security tokens (aligned with ERC-3643), transaction privacy, and AI agent micropayments via the X402 standard. Furthermore, the roadmap introduces a native token registry for consistent costs and quantum-safe cryptography.
These initiatives are designed to make blockchain frictionless for users, trusted by institutions, and native for machines, ensuring future-proof infrastructure for broader adoption. Initial rollouts, like X402 micropayments, are expected soon, with other features following through 2027.
Casper Network has published its multi-year technical roadmap, the "Casper Manifest," aiming to become the foundational infrastructure for regulated real-world asset tokenization and the emerging machine economy.
The Manifest outlines nine key initiatives, including EVM compatibility, gasless transactions, and smart accounts for enhanced user experience. It also focuses on compliant security tokens (aligned with ERC-3643), transaction privacy, and AI agent micropayments via the X402 standard. Furthermore, the roadmap introduces a native token registry for consistent costs and quantum-safe cryptography.
These initiatives are designed to make blockchain frictionless for users, trusted by institutions, and native for machines, ensuring future-proof infrastructure for broader adoption. Initial rollouts, like X402 micropayments, are expected soon, with other features following through 2027.
UBS Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast to Late 2026
UBS now anticipates the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2026, pushing back its previous September forecast. This revision stems from persistent goods inflation, robust economic growth, and rising supply-side uncertainty, which allow policymakers more time.
Economists note that conditions for an earlier cut, such as sustained core goods disinflation, have not materialized. April core PCE goods inflation tracked 0.3% MoM, with AI-linked software pricing offsetting disinflation in other sectors. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has also risen.
Solid Q1 domestic final sales (2.5%) and stable unemployment further diminish the urgency for near-term easing, leaving inflation as the primary policy concern. UBS now projects two cuts by Q1 2027, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.00%-3.25%. Despite market speculation, the bank maintains the bar for a rate hike remains high; the next move is still a cut.
UBS now anticipates the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2026, pushing back its previous September forecast. This revision stems from persistent goods inflation, robust economic growth, and rising supply-side uncertainty, which allow policymakers more time.
Economists note that conditions for an earlier cut, such as sustained core goods disinflation, have not materialized. April core PCE goods inflation tracked 0.3% MoM, with AI-linked software pricing offsetting disinflation in other sectors. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has also risen.
Solid Q1 domestic final sales (2.5%) and stable unemployment further diminish the urgency for near-term easing, leaving inflation as the primary policy concern. UBS now projects two cuts by Q1 2027, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.00%-3.25%. Despite market speculation, the bank maintains the bar for a rate hike remains high; the next move is still a cut.
Cybersecurity Update: New Bitcoin Swap Scam, Android Trojan, and Crypto Wallet Phishing
Hackers are deploying a sophisticated scheme to swap Bitcoin addresses during crypto arbitrage. Malicious JavaScript is injected into browser sessions (e.g., Swapzone), replacing legitimate deposit addresses with attacker's wallets and manipulating displayed rates to deceive users into direct crypto theft.
A new Android Trojan, "Massiv," masquerades as IPTV apps to steal digital identities and bank access. It uses overlay attacks, keylogging, and remote control. Targeting European users, it leverages the common installation of unofficial APKs for such apps.
Trezor and Ledger hardware wallet users are targeted with physical phishing letters. These fake security alerts instruct recipients to scan QR codes and enter seed phrases on fraudulent sites for "account verification," risking significant asset loss.
Hackers are deploying a sophisticated scheme to swap Bitcoin addresses during crypto arbitrage. Malicious JavaScript is injected into browser sessions (e.g., Swapzone), replacing legitimate deposit addresses with attacker's wallets and manipulating displayed rates to deceive users into direct crypto theft.
A new Android Trojan, "Massiv," masquerades as IPTV apps to steal digital identities and bank access. It uses overlay attacks, keylogging, and remote control. Targeting European users, it leverages the common installation of unofficial APKs for such apps.
Trezor and Ledger hardware wallet users are targeted with physical phishing letters. These fake security alerts instruct recipients to scan QR codes and enter seed phrases on fraudulent sites for "account verification," risking significant asset loss.
Bitcoin Slips Below $77K Amid Surging Yields & Oil
Bitcoin extended weekend losses, falling below $77,000 to $76,946.6, its lowest level since May 1. The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $80,000 last week but could not sustain momentum.
This downturn is largely attributed to surging global bond yields and rising oil prices, linked to escalating Iran tensions. Higher energy costs fuel inflation worries, prompting investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets.
Rising yields increase the attractiveness of safer fixed-income investments, drawing capital away from cryptocurrencies. Traders are now scaling back expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating rates to remain elevated, with some even forecasting a potential hike this year. Altcoins also broadly retreated, mirroring the global risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin extended weekend losses, falling below $77,000 to $76,946.6, its lowest level since May 1. The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $80,000 last week but could not sustain momentum.
This downturn is largely attributed to surging global bond yields and rising oil prices, linked to escalating Iran tensions. Higher energy costs fuel inflation worries, prompting investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets.
Rising yields increase the attractiveness of safer fixed-income investments, drawing capital away from cryptocurrencies. Traders are now scaling back expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating rates to remain elevated, with some even forecasting a potential hike this year. Altcoins also broadly retreated, mirroring the global risk-off sentiment.
US Treasury Chief Calls on G7 for Iran Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated he will urge G7 finance ministers to enforce the sanctions regime on Iran. The goal is to deny funding to what Bessent described as Iran’s "war machine."
Bessent also mentioned that a recent U.S. delegation trip to China, led by President Trump, was "very successful."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated he will urge G7 finance ministers to enforce the sanctions regime on Iran. The goal is to deny funding to what Bessent described as Iran’s "war machine."
Bessent also mentioned that a recent U.S. delegation trip to China, led by President Trump, was "very successful."
Fed Governor Stephen Miran Resigns, Cites Deregulation Wins
Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran has tendered his resignation, effective upon his successor's swearing-in.
In his letter, Miran stressed the Fed's need to consider nonmonetary forces, including reduced immigration's impact on population growth and deregulation's disinflationary effect on supply. He also highlighted biases in inflation measurement, citing portfolio fees and AI-driven software changes, warning against combating "fake inflation."
Miran supported Vice Chair Bowman's regulatory adjustments, which released over $100 billion for banks and eased leverage constraints, aiming to boost lending. He also backed removing reputational risk as a channel for imposing political preferences on banks. Miran expressed support for Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh's future policy directions, including balance sheet reduction.
Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran has tendered his resignation, effective upon his successor's swearing-in.
In his letter, Miran stressed the Fed's need to consider nonmonetary forces, including reduced immigration's impact on population growth and deregulation's disinflationary effect on supply. He also highlighted biases in inflation measurement, citing portfolio fees and AI-driven software changes, warning against combating "fake inflation."
Miran supported Vice Chair Bowman's regulatory adjustments, which released over $100 billion for banks and eased leverage constraints, aiming to boost lending. He also backed removing reputational risk as a channel for imposing political preferences on banks. Miran expressed support for Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh's future policy directions, including balance sheet reduction.
Emerging Markets Forecast to Outperform in 2H
Emerging market (EM) equities are anticipated to lead global gains in the second half of the year, driven by compelling valuations, a projected shift in central bank policies, and signs of economic recovery in China.
Analysts highlight the expanding AI trade as a key catalyst. EM AI plays offer attractive valuations and significant upside compared to developed market tech giants. The semiconductor space also shows continued strength, with supply constraints supporting fundamentals.
A softening US dollar, currently trading at a premium, is expected to provide a tailwind for EM assets. Geopolitical factors, including "green shoots" in China, further support this bullish outlook.
The valuation gap between EM and developed markets is at historic extremes, with EM trading at a record-low 12x forward P/E. Low institutional positioning and accelerating capital inflows suggest substantial potential.
Emerging market (EM) equities are anticipated to lead global gains in the second half of the year, driven by compelling valuations, a projected shift in central bank policies, and signs of economic recovery in China.
Analysts highlight the expanding AI trade as a key catalyst. EM AI plays offer attractive valuations and significant upside compared to developed market tech giants. The semiconductor space also shows continued strength, with supply constraints supporting fundamentals.
A softening US dollar, currently trading at a premium, is expected to provide a tailwind for EM assets. Geopolitical factors, including "green shoots" in China, further support this bullish outlook.
The valuation gap between EM and developed markets is at historic extremes, with EM trading at a record-low 12x forward P/E. Low institutional positioning and accelerating capital inflows suggest substantial potential.