UPDATE: Arthur Hayes questions whether native multisig on Solana could have prevented the Drift hack.
🚨 UPDATE: Polygon introduces Private Mempool, direct transaction routing to validators, bypassing public mempool risks.
JUST IN: THE CTFC AND DOJ FILE LAWSUIT AGAINST THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, ITS GOVERNOR, AND ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR TRYING TO REGULATE PREDICTION MARKETS, SAYING THEY HAVE NO AUTHORITY
BREAKING: Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz.
Details include:
1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be "supervised and coordinated” with Iran and Oman
2. Iran says "these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage"
3. This is reportedly a "post-war draft" and aimed to "prevent aggression in the future"
4. Iran says that even in peaceful conditions, traffic should be monitored
It appears Iran is positioning for long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Details include:
1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be "supervised and coordinated” with Iran and Oman
2. Iran says "these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage"
3. This is reportedly a "post-war draft" and aimed to "prevent aggression in the future"
4. Iran says that even in peaceful conditions, traffic should be monitored
It appears Iran is positioning for long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz.
There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis.
As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April.
Asset owners will be the only winners in the long-run.
As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April.
Asset owners will be the only winners in the long-run.
BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement after firing Attorney General Pam Bondi.
BREAKING: Dated Brent crude oil prices have surged to $141/barrel, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil supply away from the blocked Strait of Hormuz at a record pace:
Crude oil shipments from Yanbu, a port on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, are up to ~5 million barrels per day, DOUBLING in just 2 weeks.
This comes as the 746-mile East-West pipeline is now operating at full capacity of ~7 million barrels per day.
Of this supply, ~5 million barrels per day are being exported ~2 million barrels per day are being refined in Saudi.
The surge in exports from Yanbu has now offset ~45% of lost Persian Gulf shipments this month.
To put this into perspective, exports from this port were at just ~1 million barrels per day before the war in January and February.
Saudi Arabia is actively looking for workarounds to the Hormuz closure.
Crude oil shipments from Yanbu, a port on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, are up to ~5 million barrels per day, DOUBLING in just 2 weeks.
This comes as the 746-mile East-West pipeline is now operating at full capacity of ~7 million barrels per day.
Of this supply, ~5 million barrels per day are being exported ~2 million barrels per day are being refined in Saudi.
The surge in exports from Yanbu has now offset ~45% of lost Persian Gulf shipments this month.
To put this into perspective, exports from this port were at just ~1 million barrels per day before the war in January and February.
Saudi Arabia is actively looking for workarounds to the Hormuz closure.
UPDATE: US Authorities seize $600K in crypto linked to hardware wallet phishing attack targeting Ledger users.
BREAKING: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed long-term for both the US and Israel.
US oil prices have officially marked their highest close since June 2022.
US oil prices have officially marked their highest close since June 2022.
US household exposure to the stock market has never been higher:
Equities now make up 25.63% of total US household net worth, the highest since data began in the 1940s.
This surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 19.56% and the 1968 high of 22.01%.
The percentage has almost TRIPLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis low of 8.77%.
This means a significant correction in stocks could trigger a sharp pullback in spending, particularly among higher-income households who drive a significant part of consumption.
Consumer expenditures currently represent ~69% of US GDP, near an all-time high.
The US economy has never been more dependent on stock market performance.
Equities now make up 25.63% of total US household net worth, the highest since data began in the 1940s.
This surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 19.56% and the 1968 high of 22.01%.
The percentage has almost TRIPLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis low of 8.77%.
This means a significant correction in stocks could trigger a sharp pullback in spending, particularly among higher-income households who drive a significant part of consumption.
Consumer expenditures currently represent ~69% of US GDP, near an all-time high.
The US economy has never been more dependent on stock market performance.
BREAKING: The US will likely target more bridges in Iran after conducting their first strike on an Iranian bridge today just hours after President Trump threatened to bomb the country "back to the Stone Ages," per Axios.
Details include:
1. Trump has said the US could conduct such attacks to "punish" the Iranian government if it won't cut a deal
2. US defense officials claim the strike on the bridge was conducted for military purposes to prevent the IRC from moving weapons across the bridge
3. The Iranian mission to the UN said that the attack on the bridge was part of a series of US and Israeli strikes against civilian targets in Iran
4. Iran's Foreign Minister says "striking civilian structures, 'including unfinished bridges,' would not convince Iranians to surrender"
The Iran War appears to be escalating again.
Details include:
1. Trump has said the US could conduct such attacks to "punish" the Iranian government if it won't cut a deal
2. US defense officials claim the strike on the bridge was conducted for military purposes to prevent the IRC from moving weapons across the bridge
3. The Iranian mission to the UN said that the attack on the bridge was part of a series of US and Israeli strikes against civilian targets in Iran
4. Iran's Foreign Minister says "striking civilian structures, 'including unfinished bridges,' would not convince Iranians to surrender"
The Iran War appears to be escalating again.
US government job openings are falling:
Government job openings dropped -51,000 in February, to 701,000, the 2nd-lowest since December 2020.
Since the 2022 peak, available vacancies in the government have dropped -524,000 and are now in-line with the pre-pandemic levels.
Furthermore, federal government job openings fell -3,000, to 89,000, the 2nd-lowest since the 2020 pandemic low.
This is also in-line with the lows recorded in 2017 and 2018.
Meanwhile, the government hiring rate stood at 1.4%, one of the lowest levels since mid-2020 and matching the 2016 and 2017 lows.
Government hiring is frozen.
Government job openings dropped -51,000 in February, to 701,000, the 2nd-lowest since December 2020.
Since the 2022 peak, available vacancies in the government have dropped -524,000 and are now in-line with the pre-pandemic levels.
Furthermore, federal government job openings fell -3,000, to 89,000, the 2nd-lowest since the 2020 pandemic low.
This is also in-line with the lows recorded in 2017 and 2018.
Meanwhile, the government hiring rate stood at 1.4%, one of the lowest levels since mid-2020 and matching the 2016 and 2017 lows.
Government hiring is frozen.
Forward-looking data points to a further increase in US unemployment:
The gap between consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to find" is down to just 5.8 points in March, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
This comes as just 27.3% of consumers say jobs are “plentiful," down from ~55.0% in 2022.
At the same time, 21.5% say jobs are "hard to find," up from ~10.0% over the same period.
Historically, this measure has been one of the most reliable leading indicators of rising unemployment.
Furthermore, current levels in this indicator have only been seen prior to or during a US recession since the 1990s.
The job market is set for even more weakness.
The gap between consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to find" is down to just 5.8 points in March, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
This comes as just 27.3% of consumers say jobs are “plentiful," down from ~55.0% in 2022.
At the same time, 21.5% say jobs are "hard to find," up from ~10.0% over the same period.
Historically, this measure has been one of the most reliable leading indicators of rising unemployment.
Furthermore, current levels in this indicator have only been seen prior to or during a US recession since the 1990s.
The job market is set for even more weakness.
BREAKING: 50% of Iran's missile launchers and thousands of attack drones remain intact and in Iran's arsenal despite daily US-Israeli strikes, per CNN.
US intelligence also shows a "large percentage" of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles intact, allowing them to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
US intelligence also shows a "large percentage" of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles intact, allowing them to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
JUST IN: Binance founder CZ is set to launch his book "Freedom of Money" next week.
JUST IN: WBTC has been added as collateral on SparkLend on TRON, expanding Bitcoin liquidity, market depth, and stablecoin borrowing in DeFi.
In 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto gave his response to a question about Bitcoin and the rise of quantum computing
“we can still transition to something stronger”
“we can still transition to something stronger”