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Welcome to CommodityScope
Global commodity market intelligence for professionals.
We track prices, trends and developments across:
• Energy & Refined Products
• Grains & Oilseeds
• Fertilizers
• Metals
• Freight & Shipping
CommodityScope brings key market information together in one place — helping traders, buyers, suppliers and analysts follow global commodity markets faster.
Market data. Trade intelligence. Global perspective.
🌐 commodityscope.com
Global commodity market intelligence for professionals.
We track prices, trends and developments across:
• Energy & Refined Products
• Grains & Oilseeds
• Fertilizers
• Metals
• Freight & Shipping
CommodityScope brings key market information together in one place — helping traders, buyers, suppliers and analysts follow global commodity markets faster.
Market data. Trade intelligence. Global perspective.
🌐 commodityscope.com
CommodityScope | Market Intelligence pinned «Welcome to CommodityScope Global commodity market intelligence for professionals. We track prices, trends and developments across: • Energy & Refined Products • Grains & Oilseeds • Fertilizers • Metals • Freight & Shipping CommodityScope brings key market…»
Crude repriced twice. The cost of moving the barrel did not.
Diplomacy around Hormuz was enough to take the Dubai prompt premium down to $17.92/b by September 22, about $12/b lower on the week, and to pull ICE November Brent through $100, to $99.25. No agreement was reached. On September 24 the move reversed: November Dubai and Oman were assessed above $117/b, and Dated Brent near $125.52/b. The next session gave part of that back. November Dubai fell to about $113.29/b.
Freight stayed on the other side of that move.
Persian Gulf–China VLCC freight held near w1145, about $238/mt, against roughly w800, or $159/mt, for a Gulf of Oman loading. The gap is close to $80/mt before war-risk premium. VLCC earnings peaked near $1.019 million/day on September 21 and paused above $1 million. The next ship did not pause. US Gulf–UK Continent Aframax freight reached w625. Arab Gulf–UK Continent LR2 freight hit $156.11/mt, and Arab Gulf–Japan LR freight rose from w775 to w875.
More oil left the Gulf than in August, through a narrower corridor. Reported Hormuz crude exits were 7.64 million b/d in the September 18–21 window, and ship-to-ship transfers averaged about 8 million b/d so far in September, both up from 5.4 million b/d in August. Daily crossings were still 13–14 ships, against more than 130 before the conflict. Yanbu has not loaded crude since September 12. At least 24 million barrels were reported for lifting off the Omani coast in September and October.
Europe is short the sour barrel it can run, not every barrel. Johan Sverdrup was assessed at $24.21/b over Dated Brent on September 22. October West African crude was still long, with unsold volume put near 30 million barrels.
Products did not loosen when flat prices fell. ARA diesel and gasoil stocks ended near 1.636 million mt, about 25% below a year earlier. Middle East diesel into Europe averaged about 110,000 b/d, the lowest since February 2020. Russia's producer export ban runs through October. A US blanket diesel-export ban was set aside. The option remains open.
Inland Europe is a separate constraint. Rhine water at Kaub fell from about 22 cm on September 18 to about 5 cm, with forecasts near 1 cm around September 29.
Asia is where the spread now pays for a westbound voyage. The gasoil East-West spread widened to −$199.82/mt on September 23, the lowest since the marker began in 2009. That arb still has to clear LR freight near $156/mt. Fujairah product stocks rose 59% in the week to September 21. China is cutting runs because delivered crude is late and expensive. Lower Chinese crude demand does not automatically mean more product exports in October.
A softer benchmark is not a cheaper delivered barrel.
https://commodityscope.com
Diplomacy around Hormuz was enough to take the Dubai prompt premium down to $17.92/b by September 22, about $12/b lower on the week, and to pull ICE November Brent through $100, to $99.25. No agreement was reached. On September 24 the move reversed: November Dubai and Oman were assessed above $117/b, and Dated Brent near $125.52/b. The next session gave part of that back. November Dubai fell to about $113.29/b.
Freight stayed on the other side of that move.
Persian Gulf–China VLCC freight held near w1145, about $238/mt, against roughly w800, or $159/mt, for a Gulf of Oman loading. The gap is close to $80/mt before war-risk premium. VLCC earnings peaked near $1.019 million/day on September 21 and paused above $1 million. The next ship did not pause. US Gulf–UK Continent Aframax freight reached w625. Arab Gulf–UK Continent LR2 freight hit $156.11/mt, and Arab Gulf–Japan LR freight rose from w775 to w875.
More oil left the Gulf than in August, through a narrower corridor. Reported Hormuz crude exits were 7.64 million b/d in the September 18–21 window, and ship-to-ship transfers averaged about 8 million b/d so far in September, both up from 5.4 million b/d in August. Daily crossings were still 13–14 ships, against more than 130 before the conflict. Yanbu has not loaded crude since September 12. At least 24 million barrels were reported for lifting off the Omani coast in September and October.
Europe is short the sour barrel it can run, not every barrel. Johan Sverdrup was assessed at $24.21/b over Dated Brent on September 22. October West African crude was still long, with unsold volume put near 30 million barrels.
Products did not loosen when flat prices fell. ARA diesel and gasoil stocks ended near 1.636 million mt, about 25% below a year earlier. Middle East diesel into Europe averaged about 110,000 b/d, the lowest since February 2020. Russia's producer export ban runs through October. A US blanket diesel-export ban was set aside. The option remains open.
Inland Europe is a separate constraint. Rhine water at Kaub fell from about 22 cm on September 18 to about 5 cm, with forecasts near 1 cm around September 29.
Asia is where the spread now pays for a westbound voyage. The gasoil East-West spread widened to −$199.82/mt on September 23, the lowest since the marker began in 2009. That arb still has to clear LR freight near $156/mt. Fujairah product stocks rose 59% in the week to September 21. China is cutting runs because delivered crude is late and expensive. Lower Chinese crude demand does not automatically mean more product exports in October.
A softer benchmark is not a cheaper delivered barrel.
https://commodityscope.com
WHEAT PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
US winter wheat declined around $5–8/MT this week.
The market continues to face pressure from:
• High global wheat supplies
• Expectations of improving Black Sea export flows
• Favorable rainfall across the US winter wheat belt
commodityscope.com
#Wheat #Grain #BlackSea #Commodities #Agriculture #CommodityTrading
US winter wheat declined around $5–8/MT this week.
The market continues to face pressure from:
• High global wheat supplies
• Expectations of improving Black Sea export flows
• Favorable rainfall across the US winter wheat belt
commodityscope.com
#Wheat #Grain #BlackSea #Commodities #Agriculture #CommodityTrading
📊 COMMODITYSCOPE — DAILY MARKET BRIEF
28 September 2026
Oil and product markets remain dominated by Middle East logistics, extreme tanker freight and tightening regional supply. Fertilizer markets stay comparatively quiet ahead of the next Indian urea tender.
🛢 CRUDE OIL
🔸 Hormuz traffic dropped sharply: only 13 vessels crossed on 27 September, versus 21 a day earlier and around 130 ships/day before the conflict.
🔸 VLCC freight remains extreme.
Persian Gulf → China, 270kt: WS1150
Gulf of Oman → Far East: WS795
Global VLCC earnings remain above $1 million/day.
🔸 Dated Brent: $124.02/bbl
🔸 Dubai Nov: $109.50/bbl
🔸 WTI Nov: $92.60/bbl
🔸 Saudi crude flows through Yanbu are recovering sharply, with loadings indicated at 2.8 million b/d for the week starting 28 September.
🔸 China continues to avoid US crude: the 20% tariff remains in place, while US crude and propane were excluded from the latest tariff-reduction framework.
🚢 FREIGHT & FLOWS
🔸 Bab al-Mandab traffic increased to 42 vessels, including 18 product tankers.
🔸 WAF → East VLCC: WS497
🔸 Russian Urals imports into China are expected near 7.5 million barrels in October, the highest level since April.
🔸 Libya resumed operations at Zawiya and crude flows from the 300,000 b/d El Sharara field.
⛽ EUROPEAN PRODUCTS
European refined-product prices corrected sharply:
• NWE gasoline 10 ppm CIF: $1,245.50/MT — down $68.25
• Eurobob FOB Rotterdam: $1,169.75/MT — down $68.25
• ULSD 10 ppm FOB NWE: $1,450.50/MT — down $32.25
• Jet FOB NWE: $1,502.75/MT — down $23.50
Meanwhile, physical constraints remain significant.
🔸 Rhine water level at Kaub fell to just 2 cm and could reach zero.
🔸 ARA jet/kero stocks declined 6.1% w/w to 510,000 MT.
🔸 Mediterranean HSFO supply remains tight, while a VLSFO squeeze is building toward month-end.
🌏 ASIA / ARAB GULF
Clean tanker freight east of Suez remains exceptionally firm.
🔸 Persian Gulf LR2 indications: WS850–900
🔸 LR1: WS850–975
Singapore fuel oil continues to show contrasting dynamics:
• Marine Fuel 0.5%S cash differential: $30.62/MT, down 21.2% w/w
• 380 CST HSFO cash differential: $47.92/MT, up 17% w/w
Singapore heavy-distillate stocks fell to a 4-week low of 19.78 million barrels.
🌾 FERTILIZERS
Urea markets remain relatively quiet ahead of the 7 October Indian tender.
🇨🇳 China prilled urea FOB: $370–380/t
🇨🇳 Granular urea cargo to Australia: around $450/t FOB
🇪🇬 Egypt granular urea FOB: $535/t
🇮🇷 Iran Pardis tender: 30,000–60,000 t, October loading
European gas eased:
🔥 TTF month-ahead: $25.25/mmBtu
🇺🇸 Henry Hub: $2.96/mmBtu
📌 KEY MARKET SIGNAL
The market is currently being driven less by outright supply availability and more by shipping constraints, route risk and freight economics.
Extremely expensive Persian Gulf freight, disruption around Hormuz, low Rhine water levels and tightening regional product balances continue to reshape physical commodity flows.
CommodityScope
Market intelligence for physical commodity traders.
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Diesel #ULSD #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Urea #Fertilizers #NaturalGas #Trading #CommodityTrading
28 September 2026
Oil and product markets remain dominated by Middle East logistics, extreme tanker freight and tightening regional supply. Fertilizer markets stay comparatively quiet ahead of the next Indian urea tender.
🛢 CRUDE OIL
🔸 Hormuz traffic dropped sharply: only 13 vessels crossed on 27 September, versus 21 a day earlier and around 130 ships/day before the conflict.
🔸 VLCC freight remains extreme.
Persian Gulf → China, 270kt: WS1150
Gulf of Oman → Far East: WS795
Global VLCC earnings remain above $1 million/day.
🔸 Dated Brent: $124.02/bbl
🔸 Dubai Nov: $109.50/bbl
🔸 WTI Nov: $92.60/bbl
🔸 Saudi crude flows through Yanbu are recovering sharply, with loadings indicated at 2.8 million b/d for the week starting 28 September.
🔸 China continues to avoid US crude: the 20% tariff remains in place, while US crude and propane were excluded from the latest tariff-reduction framework.
🚢 FREIGHT & FLOWS
🔸 Bab al-Mandab traffic increased to 42 vessels, including 18 product tankers.
🔸 WAF → East VLCC: WS497
🔸 Russian Urals imports into China are expected near 7.5 million barrels in October, the highest level since April.
🔸 Libya resumed operations at Zawiya and crude flows from the 300,000 b/d El Sharara field.
⛽ EUROPEAN PRODUCTS
European refined-product prices corrected sharply:
• NWE gasoline 10 ppm CIF: $1,245.50/MT — down $68.25
• Eurobob FOB Rotterdam: $1,169.75/MT — down $68.25
• ULSD 10 ppm FOB NWE: $1,450.50/MT — down $32.25
• Jet FOB NWE: $1,502.75/MT — down $23.50
Meanwhile, physical constraints remain significant.
🔸 Rhine water level at Kaub fell to just 2 cm and could reach zero.
🔸 ARA jet/kero stocks declined 6.1% w/w to 510,000 MT.
🔸 Mediterranean HSFO supply remains tight, while a VLSFO squeeze is building toward month-end.
🌏 ASIA / ARAB GULF
Clean tanker freight east of Suez remains exceptionally firm.
🔸 Persian Gulf LR2 indications: WS850–900
🔸 LR1: WS850–975
Singapore fuel oil continues to show contrasting dynamics:
• Marine Fuel 0.5%S cash differential: $30.62/MT, down 21.2% w/w
• 380 CST HSFO cash differential: $47.92/MT, up 17% w/w
Singapore heavy-distillate stocks fell to a 4-week low of 19.78 million barrels.
🌾 FERTILIZERS
Urea markets remain relatively quiet ahead of the 7 October Indian tender.
🇨🇳 China prilled urea FOB: $370–380/t
🇨🇳 Granular urea cargo to Australia: around $450/t FOB
🇪🇬 Egypt granular urea FOB: $535/t
🇮🇷 Iran Pardis tender: 30,000–60,000 t, October loading
European gas eased:
🔥 TTF month-ahead: $25.25/mmBtu
🇺🇸 Henry Hub: $2.96/mmBtu
📌 KEY MARKET SIGNAL
The market is currently being driven less by outright supply availability and more by shipping constraints, route risk and freight economics.
Extremely expensive Persian Gulf freight, disruption around Hormuz, low Rhine water levels and tightening regional product balances continue to reshape physical commodity flows.
CommodityScope
Market intelligence for physical commodity traders.
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Diesel #ULSD #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Urea #Fertilizers #NaturalGas #Trading #CommodityTrading
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET SNAPSHOT
29 SEP 2026
🛢 CRUDE
Dated Brent $119.09/bbl ▼ $4.93
Dubai Nov $107.50/bbl ▼ $2.00
WTI Nov $89.39/bbl ▼ $3.21
Brent/Dubai Nov -$1.28/bbl
Yanbu loadings: 2.8M b/d
Prior week: 77kb/d
Hormuz transits: 16 vessels ▲ from 13
A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting Hormuz on Sep 28. Fire extinguished; no casualties or oil spill reported.
—
🚢 CRUDE FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1105
Inside-PG VLCC indications: WS1100–1350
Gulf of Oman: WS730–750
WAF → East 260kt: WS500 ▲3
Ceyhan → Med Aframax: WS635 ▼7.5
Black Sea → Med 135kt: WS505 ▲5
Inside-PG loadings continue to command a major premium.
—
⛽ CLEAN TANKERS
PG → Japan LR1 55kt: WS890
PG → Japan LR2 75kt: WS875
Global MR weighted TCE:
$54,949/day ▲ $3,194
Global CTI:
$113,505/day ▲ $2,452
MR freight reached record highs, with prompt tonnage tight through early October.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
ICE LSGO front-month
$1,393.50/MT ▼ $51
Jet CIF NWE
$1,490/MT ▼ $40
Naphtha CIF NWE
$816/MT ▼ $22
NWE gasoline 10ppm CIF
$1,255.25/MT ▲ $9.75
Eurobob barge
$1,175.25/MT ▲ $5.50
Jet premium over ICE LSGO:
$96.50/MT ▲ $11
Diesel remains under pressure from strong supply, while gasoline moved higher.
NWE VLSFO availability: very tight
Rhine @ Kaub: -1 cm
European crude supply remains tight, while rising USGC → Europe Aframax freight is supporting North Sea differentials.
—
🌏 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore marine fuel 0.5% premium:
$28.62/MT ▼ $2
Singapore 380 CST HSFO premium:
$46.95/MT
Asian ULSD: rangebound / softer
Jet/kero fundamentals remain soft on healthy regional supply.
Fuel-oil flows remain constrained by Middle East tensions and reduced Russian arrivals.
—
🏭 REFINING
China state-owned refinery throughput:
8.39M b/d
Utilization: 76.4%
October throughput expected to lose momentum as crude availability tightens.
USGC refiners may need to cut crude runs by nearly 1.9M b/d to balance domestic product supply under one S&P Global scenario.
US SPR: final 40M bbl tranche released from the previously announced drawdown programme.
—
🌾 UREA
China approved a fourth tranche of urea export allocations.
Market estimate: ~1.5–2.0M tonnes
Potential cumulative export availability since July:
7–9M tonnes
Immediate FOB reaction:
Middle East granular urea
$445–455/t ▼ $15
Nigeria granular urea
$470–485/t ▼ $12.50
Egypt granular urea
$535/t FOB
China prilled urea
$370–380/t FOB
China’s additional export allocation is now the key bearish signal for the international urea market.
—
🔥 GAS
TTF front-month:
€69.12/MWh ▼6% d/d
Sep 14 high: €82.57/MWh
Indicative ammonia gas cost at current TTF:
~$830s/t
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Crude prices corrected sharply, but physical freight remains highly dislocated.
The key divergences today:
Crude flat prices ↓
MR / LR freight ↑
European diesel ↓
Gasoline ↑
VLSFO tight
China urea export availability ↑ → FOB urea ↓
Physical logistics continue to trade independently from headline flat-price direction.
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Diesel #ULSD #Gasoline #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #NaturalGas #CommodityTrading
29 SEP 2026
🛢 CRUDE
Dated Brent $119.09/bbl ▼ $4.93
Dubai Nov $107.50/bbl ▼ $2.00
WTI Nov $89.39/bbl ▼ $3.21
Brent/Dubai Nov -$1.28/bbl
Yanbu loadings: 2.8M b/d
Prior week: 77kb/d
Hormuz transits: 16 vessels ▲ from 13
A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting Hormuz on Sep 28. Fire extinguished; no casualties or oil spill reported.
—
🚢 CRUDE FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1105
Inside-PG VLCC indications: WS1100–1350
Gulf of Oman: WS730–750
WAF → East 260kt: WS500 ▲3
Ceyhan → Med Aframax: WS635 ▼7.5
Black Sea → Med 135kt: WS505 ▲5
Inside-PG loadings continue to command a major premium.
—
⛽ CLEAN TANKERS
PG → Japan LR1 55kt: WS890
PG → Japan LR2 75kt: WS875
Global MR weighted TCE:
$54,949/day ▲ $3,194
Global CTI:
$113,505/day ▲ $2,452
MR freight reached record highs, with prompt tonnage tight through early October.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
ICE LSGO front-month
$1,393.50/MT ▼ $51
Jet CIF NWE
$1,490/MT ▼ $40
Naphtha CIF NWE
$816/MT ▼ $22
NWE gasoline 10ppm CIF
$1,255.25/MT ▲ $9.75
Eurobob barge
$1,175.25/MT ▲ $5.50
Jet premium over ICE LSGO:
$96.50/MT ▲ $11
Diesel remains under pressure from strong supply, while gasoline moved higher.
NWE VLSFO availability: very tight
Rhine @ Kaub: -1 cm
European crude supply remains tight, while rising USGC → Europe Aframax freight is supporting North Sea differentials.
—
🌏 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore marine fuel 0.5% premium:
$28.62/MT ▼ $2
Singapore 380 CST HSFO premium:
$46.95/MT
Asian ULSD: rangebound / softer
Jet/kero fundamentals remain soft on healthy regional supply.
Fuel-oil flows remain constrained by Middle East tensions and reduced Russian arrivals.
—
🏭 REFINING
China state-owned refinery throughput:
8.39M b/d
Utilization: 76.4%
October throughput expected to lose momentum as crude availability tightens.
USGC refiners may need to cut crude runs by nearly 1.9M b/d to balance domestic product supply under one S&P Global scenario.
US SPR: final 40M bbl tranche released from the previously announced drawdown programme.
—
🌾 UREA
China approved a fourth tranche of urea export allocations.
Market estimate: ~1.5–2.0M tonnes
Potential cumulative export availability since July:
7–9M tonnes
Immediate FOB reaction:
Middle East granular urea
$445–455/t ▼ $15
Nigeria granular urea
$470–485/t ▼ $12.50
Egypt granular urea
$535/t FOB
China prilled urea
$370–380/t FOB
China’s additional export allocation is now the key bearish signal for the international urea market.
—
🔥 GAS
TTF front-month:
€69.12/MWh ▼6% d/d
Sep 14 high: €82.57/MWh
Indicative ammonia gas cost at current TTF:
~$830s/t
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Crude prices corrected sharply, but physical freight remains highly dislocated.
The key divergences today:
Crude flat prices ↓
MR / LR freight ↑
European diesel ↓
Gasoline ↑
VLSFO tight
China urea export availability ↑ → FOB urea ↓
Physical logistics continue to trade independently from headline flat-price direction.
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Diesel #ULSD #Gasoline #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #NaturalGas #CommodityTrading
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET SNAPSHOT
30 SEP 2026
🛢 CRUDE
Dated Brent $120.44/bbl ▲ $1.35
Dubai Nov $106.19/bbl ▼ $1.31
Dubai Dec $98.56/bbl ▼ $3.11
Brent Dec $99.02/bbl ▲ $1.94
Brent/Dubai Nov -$3.05/bbl
Cash Dubai has corrected sharply from the recent $128/bbl peak on Sep 16.
Dubai forward structure also softened, with the Nov/Dec spread narrowing to $2.49/bbl.
—
🚢 CRUDE FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1105
Inside PG: WS1050–1200
Gulf of Oman: WS700–750
WAF → East 260kt: WS500
WAF → UKC 130kt: WS515 ▲70
Black Sea → Med 135kt: WS522.5 ▲17.5
Ceyhan → Med Aframax: WS630 ▼5
Black Sea → Med Aframax: WS675 ▼15
Yanbu → South Korea VLCC fixtures: $5.5M lumpsum via Suez.
Inside-PG cargoes continue to command a substantial premium versus Gulf of Oman loadings.
—
⛽ CLEAN FREIGHT
PG → Japan LR1 55kt: WS925
PG → Japan LR2 75kt: WS925
PG → UKC LR2 90kt:
$175.28/MT ▲11.88%
LR2 freight on WCI → UKC crossed $10M lumpsum.
A key fixture:
Sikka → UKC diesel, 11 Oct: $11M
MR supply remains tight across the region, while LR rates continue to receive spillover support from the exceptionally firm MR market.
—
⚠️ HORMUZ / PHYSICAL RISK
Three tankers were reported hit by unknown projectiles around the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz transits Sep 29: 19 vessels
Monthly average: 21
Bab al-Mandab: 43 crossings, including 17 tankers.
Middle East crude exports through Hormuz, Fujairah and Red Sea terminals averaged almost 13M b/d during Sep 1–28 — still 36% below the pre-war February level of 20.2M b/d.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
Jet CIF NWE
$1,592.25/MT ▲ $102.25
ICE LSGO front-month
$1,464/MT ▲ $70.50
Jet premium over LSGO
$128.25/MT ▲ $31.75
Jet/ULSD regrade
+$2.41/bbl
FOB Rotterdam VLSFO 0.5%
$633.75/MT ▲ $19.25
Jet and diesel reversed sharply higher after the prior session's selloff.
NWE VLSFO remains very tight, with healthy LSFO demand across NWE and the Mediterranean.
Rhine @ Kaub: 1 cm
Further decline expected.
—
🇷🇺 RUSSIAN PRODUCTS
Russia extended product export restrictions:
Diesel / gasoil / marine gasoil: through Oct 31
Jet fuel: through Nov 30
Gasoline: through Jan 31, 2027
S&P Global CERA estimates around 3M b/d of Russia's 7M b/d refining capacity has been affected by drone attacks.
—
🌏 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore 10ppm gasoil: 173.11 ▲3.11
Singapore naphtha: 92.52 ▲0.58
Singapore 380 CST HSFO cash premium:
$44.62/MT
East-West 0.5%S spread:
$152/MT ▲ from $145
Singapore expects around 1.5–1.6M MT of LSFO arrivals from the West in October.
The widening East-West spread continues to support arbitrage economics into Asia.
—
🌾 UREA
Global urea prices remain under pressure following the latest Chinese export quota allocation.
Egypt granular FOB:
$520–535/t ▼ $7.50
Middle East granular FOB:
$440–450/t ▼ $5
Nigeria granular FOB:
$465–480/t ▼ $5
Brazil granular CFR:
$465–490/t ▼ $7.50
China prilled FOB:
$365–380/t ▼ $2.50
NOLA barges:
$430–435/st
Fresh Chinese availability remains the dominant bearish driver across international nitrogen markets.
—
🔥 GAS
TTF front-month: €72.42/MWh ▲ >4%
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Dated Brent ↑
Dubai ↓
Dirty freight firm / selective spikes ↑
LR freight ↑↑
Jet & diesel ↑ sharply
VLSFO tight
Urea ↓
The physical market remains heavily distorted by Hormuz risk, tanker availability and regional product shortages.
Flat-price crude is giving mixed signals, while freight and refined-product dislocations remain the dominant drivers of physical commodity economics.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #Dubai #Diesel #JetFuel #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #LR2 #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
30 SEP 2026
🛢 CRUDE
Dated Brent $120.44/bbl ▲ $1.35
Dubai Nov $106.19/bbl ▼ $1.31
Dubai Dec $98.56/bbl ▼ $3.11
Brent Dec $99.02/bbl ▲ $1.94
Brent/Dubai Nov -$3.05/bbl
Cash Dubai has corrected sharply from the recent $128/bbl peak on Sep 16.
Dubai forward structure also softened, with the Nov/Dec spread narrowing to $2.49/bbl.
—
🚢 CRUDE FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1105
Inside PG: WS1050–1200
Gulf of Oman: WS700–750
WAF → East 260kt: WS500
WAF → UKC 130kt: WS515 ▲70
Black Sea → Med 135kt: WS522.5 ▲17.5
Ceyhan → Med Aframax: WS630 ▼5
Black Sea → Med Aframax: WS675 ▼15
Yanbu → South Korea VLCC fixtures: $5.5M lumpsum via Suez.
Inside-PG cargoes continue to command a substantial premium versus Gulf of Oman loadings.
—
⛽ CLEAN FREIGHT
PG → Japan LR1 55kt: WS925
PG → Japan LR2 75kt: WS925
PG → UKC LR2 90kt:
$175.28/MT ▲11.88%
LR2 freight on WCI → UKC crossed $10M lumpsum.
A key fixture:
Sikka → UKC diesel, 11 Oct: $11M
MR supply remains tight across the region, while LR rates continue to receive spillover support from the exceptionally firm MR market.
—
⚠️ HORMUZ / PHYSICAL RISK
Three tankers were reported hit by unknown projectiles around the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz transits Sep 29: 19 vessels
Monthly average: 21
Bab al-Mandab: 43 crossings, including 17 tankers.
Middle East crude exports through Hormuz, Fujairah and Red Sea terminals averaged almost 13M b/d during Sep 1–28 — still 36% below the pre-war February level of 20.2M b/d.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
Jet CIF NWE
$1,592.25/MT ▲ $102.25
ICE LSGO front-month
$1,464/MT ▲ $70.50
Jet premium over LSGO
$128.25/MT ▲ $31.75
Jet/ULSD regrade
+$2.41/bbl
FOB Rotterdam VLSFO 0.5%
$633.75/MT ▲ $19.25
Jet and diesel reversed sharply higher after the prior session's selloff.
NWE VLSFO remains very tight, with healthy LSFO demand across NWE and the Mediterranean.
Rhine @ Kaub: 1 cm
Further decline expected.
—
🇷🇺 RUSSIAN PRODUCTS
Russia extended product export restrictions:
Diesel / gasoil / marine gasoil: through Oct 31
Jet fuel: through Nov 30
Gasoline: through Jan 31, 2027
S&P Global CERA estimates around 3M b/d of Russia's 7M b/d refining capacity has been affected by drone attacks.
—
🌏 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore 10ppm gasoil: 173.11 ▲3.11
Singapore naphtha: 92.52 ▲0.58
Singapore 380 CST HSFO cash premium:
$44.62/MT
East-West 0.5%S spread:
$152/MT ▲ from $145
Singapore expects around 1.5–1.6M MT of LSFO arrivals from the West in October.
The widening East-West spread continues to support arbitrage economics into Asia.
—
🌾 UREA
Global urea prices remain under pressure following the latest Chinese export quota allocation.
Egypt granular FOB:
$520–535/t ▼ $7.50
Middle East granular FOB:
$440–450/t ▼ $5
Nigeria granular FOB:
$465–480/t ▼ $5
Brazil granular CFR:
$465–490/t ▼ $7.50
China prilled FOB:
$365–380/t ▼ $2.50
NOLA barges:
$430–435/st
Fresh Chinese availability remains the dominant bearish driver across international nitrogen markets.
—
🔥 GAS
TTF front-month: €72.42/MWh ▲ >4%
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Dated Brent ↑
Dubai ↓
Dirty freight firm / selective spikes ↑
LR freight ↑↑
Jet & diesel ↑ sharply
VLSFO tight
Urea ↓
The physical market remains heavily distorted by Hormuz risk, tanker availability and regional product shortages.
Flat-price crude is giving mixed signals, while freight and refined-product dislocations remain the dominant drivers of physical commodity economics.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #Dubai #Diesel #JetFuel #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #LR2 #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
❤3
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET SNAPSHOT
🛢 CRUDE / MIDDLE EAST
December cash Dubai premium to futures:
+$12.695/bbl ▲17.5¢
UAE crude tender: ≥11M bbl sold
Upper Zakum: ≥6M bbl
Das Blend: 5M bbl
Most cargoes were heard awarded STS across Fujairah–Sohar.
Differentials vs Platts Dubai:
Upper Zakum: near parity
Das Blend: just below +$5/bbl
Umm Lulu: +$6–7/bbl
IOC also bought 2M bbl Basrah Medium from Vitol at -$32/bbl vs Platts Dubai FOB Basrah for Oct 22–31 loading.
⚠️ HORMUZ / MIDDLE EAST FLOWS
Middle East crude exports via Hormuz, Fujairah and Red Sea terminals:
\~13M b/d during Sep 1–28
vs 10.7M b/d in August
Still 36% below the prewar February level of 20.2M b/d.
Bab al-Mandab traffic fell to 31 ships on Sep 30 — lowest since Sep 16.
Suez traffic has been recovering as more vessels reroute through the canal.
🚢 DIRTY FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt:
WS1120
Inside PG: WS1050–1150
Gulf of Oman: WS750–770
The freight premium for loading inside the Persian Gulf remains extreme.
WAF → UKC Suezmax 130kt:
WS745 ▲230
Black Sea → Med 135kt:
WS732.5 ▲210
WAF → East VLCC 260kt:
WS520 ▲20
Brazil → China VLCC:
WS490 ▲23
WAF Suezmax remains hot, with cargoes accumulating against tightening tonnage availability.
⛽ ASIA GASOIL / JET
Singapore gasoil Nov/Dec spread:
+$7.60/bbl
vs +$5.98/bbl
FOB Singapore 10ppm gasoil cash diff:
+$3.22/bbl
Jet/kero cash diff:
+$2.07/bbl ▲83¢
Jet/kero Oct/Nov spread:
+$7.60/bbl
vs +$3.30/bbl
Russia's full diesel export ban remains in force through Oct 31.
India cut the export tax on diesel to ₹16/litre from ₹20/litre.
🇨🇳 CHINA PRODUCT EXPORTS
October product exports are expected around:
3.85M MT
September:
4.36–4.58M MT
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
Jet CIF NWE:
$1,603.50/MT ▲ $11.25
Jet premium over ICE LSGO:
$152.25/MT ▲ $24
ICE LSGO Oct:
$1,451.25/MT ▼ $12.75
NWE ULSD 10ppm FOB:
$1,449.25/MT ▼ $14.75
Med ULSD 10ppm FOB:
$1,440.50/MT ▼ $21.25
Naphtha CIF NWE:
$864.75/MT ▲ $24
Jet remains the standout strength in Europe while diesel weakens.
ARA jet stocks:
437kt ▼14.31% w/w
🛢 FUEL OIL / BUNKERS
Singapore 380 CST HSFO Oct/Nov spread:
$47.50/MT
vs $41.00
380 CST HSFO cash premium:
$40.67/MT
Singapore delivered bunker premium:
$59.24/MT ▲19% w/w
East-West 0.5%S spread:
$152/MT
Singapore Oct LSFO arrivals from West:
1.5–1.6M MT
NWE VLSFO availability remains tight.
Rotterdam 0.5%S marine fuel traded around:
$628–631/MT
🚢 CLEAN FREIGHT
Global CTI non-eco:
$122,708/day ▲ $1,509
New record.
Eco CTI:
$129,781/day
MR Singapore → Australia round-trip earnings:
\~$75,000/day
Four months ago:
\~$32,000/day
WCI → UKC LR rates appear to have peaked around $11M lumpsum, while MR freight continues climbing in North Asia.
Cross-Med MR: WS340 ▲30
Black Sea → Med: WS365 ▲25
UKC → USAC: WS207.5 ▲7.5
🌾 UREA
China's fourth export allocation round continues to pressure global urea.
Expected new availability:
1.5–2.0M MT
Egypt granular FOB:
$510–525/t ▼ $10
Middle East granular FOB:
$440–450/t
Nigeria granular FOB:
$460–470/t ▼ $7.50
Brazil CFR:
$465–485/t ▼ $2.50
China granular FOB:
$435–440/t
NOLA FOB:
$430–435/st
India IPL tender:
1.7M MT, closing Oct 7
Bangladesh tender:
up to 200kt, closing Oct 14.
MARKET SIGNAL
Middle East crude flows ↑
PG freight premium remains extreme
WAF / Black Sea Suezmax ↑↑
Jet premiums ↑
European diesel ↓
Clean tanker earnings at record highs
VLSFO / HSFO structure firm
Urea ↓
Tanker scarcity, regional export restrictions and product inventory tightness continue to dictate physical commodity economics.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Dubai #Diesel #JetFuel #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #Suezmax #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
🛢 CRUDE / MIDDLE EAST
December cash Dubai premium to futures:
+$12.695/bbl ▲17.5¢
UAE crude tender: ≥11M bbl sold
Upper Zakum: ≥6M bbl
Das Blend: 5M bbl
Most cargoes were heard awarded STS across Fujairah–Sohar.
Differentials vs Platts Dubai:
Upper Zakum: near parity
Das Blend: just below +$5/bbl
Umm Lulu: +$6–7/bbl
IOC also bought 2M bbl Basrah Medium from Vitol at -$32/bbl vs Platts Dubai FOB Basrah for Oct 22–31 loading.
⚠️ HORMUZ / MIDDLE EAST FLOWS
Middle East crude exports via Hormuz, Fujairah and Red Sea terminals:
\~13M b/d during Sep 1–28
vs 10.7M b/d in August
Still 36% below the prewar February level of 20.2M b/d.
Bab al-Mandab traffic fell to 31 ships on Sep 30 — lowest since Sep 16.
Suez traffic has been recovering as more vessels reroute through the canal.
🚢 DIRTY FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt:
WS1120
Inside PG: WS1050–1150
Gulf of Oman: WS750–770
The freight premium for loading inside the Persian Gulf remains extreme.
WAF → UKC Suezmax 130kt:
WS745 ▲230
Black Sea → Med 135kt:
WS732.5 ▲210
WAF → East VLCC 260kt:
WS520 ▲20
Brazil → China VLCC:
WS490 ▲23
WAF Suezmax remains hot, with cargoes accumulating against tightening tonnage availability.
⛽ ASIA GASOIL / JET
Singapore gasoil Nov/Dec spread:
+$7.60/bbl
vs +$5.98/bbl
FOB Singapore 10ppm gasoil cash diff:
+$3.22/bbl
Jet/kero cash diff:
+$2.07/bbl ▲83¢
Jet/kero Oct/Nov spread:
+$7.60/bbl
vs +$3.30/bbl
Russia's full diesel export ban remains in force through Oct 31.
India cut the export tax on diesel to ₹16/litre from ₹20/litre.
🇨🇳 CHINA PRODUCT EXPORTS
October product exports are expected around:
3.85M MT
September:
4.36–4.58M MT
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
Jet CIF NWE:
$1,603.50/MT ▲ $11.25
Jet premium over ICE LSGO:
$152.25/MT ▲ $24
ICE LSGO Oct:
$1,451.25/MT ▼ $12.75
NWE ULSD 10ppm FOB:
$1,449.25/MT ▼ $14.75
Med ULSD 10ppm FOB:
$1,440.50/MT ▼ $21.25
Naphtha CIF NWE:
$864.75/MT ▲ $24
Jet remains the standout strength in Europe while diesel weakens.
ARA jet stocks:
437kt ▼14.31% w/w
🛢 FUEL OIL / BUNKERS
Singapore 380 CST HSFO Oct/Nov spread:
$47.50/MT
vs $41.00
380 CST HSFO cash premium:
$40.67/MT
Singapore delivered bunker premium:
$59.24/MT ▲19% w/w
East-West 0.5%S spread:
$152/MT
Singapore Oct LSFO arrivals from West:
1.5–1.6M MT
NWE VLSFO availability remains tight.
Rotterdam 0.5%S marine fuel traded around:
$628–631/MT
🚢 CLEAN FREIGHT
Global CTI non-eco:
$122,708/day ▲ $1,509
New record.
Eco CTI:
$129,781/day
MR Singapore → Australia round-trip earnings:
\~$75,000/day
Four months ago:
\~$32,000/day
WCI → UKC LR rates appear to have peaked around $11M lumpsum, while MR freight continues climbing in North Asia.
Cross-Med MR: WS340 ▲30
Black Sea → Med: WS365 ▲25
UKC → USAC: WS207.5 ▲7.5
🌾 UREA
China's fourth export allocation round continues to pressure global urea.
Expected new availability:
1.5–2.0M MT
Egypt granular FOB:
$510–525/t ▼ $10
Middle East granular FOB:
$440–450/t
Nigeria granular FOB:
$460–470/t ▼ $7.50
Brazil CFR:
$465–485/t ▼ $2.50
China granular FOB:
$435–440/t
NOLA FOB:
$430–435/st
India IPL tender:
1.7M MT, closing Oct 7
Bangladesh tender:
up to 200kt, closing Oct 14.
MARKET SIGNAL
Middle East crude flows ↑
PG freight premium remains extreme
WAF / Black Sea Suezmax ↑↑
Jet premiums ↑
European diesel ↓
Clean tanker earnings at record highs
VLSFO / HSFO structure firm
Urea ↓
Tanker scarcity, regional export restrictions and product inventory tightness continue to dictate physical commodity economics.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Dubai #Diesel #JetFuel #FuelOil #VLSFO #HSFO #Freight #VLCC #Suezmax #Tankers #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
COMMODITYSCOPE | WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 3, 2026
Physical markets ended the week with a major shift: the freight shock is no longer only a Persian Gulf story — it has spread aggressively into the Atlantic and Black Sea.
CRUDE & FREIGHT
• Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted despite improving Middle East export volumes.
• PG–China VLCC held near w1135 versus Gulf of Oman around w750–800 — the location premium remains extreme.
• Saudi Yanbu loadings recovered to ~2.8 mb/d, restoring part of Red Sea export flexibility.
• WAF–Europe Suezmax freight surged from ~$75.7/mt to ~$150.6/mt in four days.
• Black Sea–Med Suezmax reached ~w967.5.
• Brazil–China VLCC freight hit a record w625.
• High freight is now forcing West African crude differentials sharply lower.
REFINED PRODUCTS
• G7 agreed a coordinated 100 mb strategic stock release, including front-loaded diesel.
• ICE LSGO dropped $95.75/mt in one session to $1,355.50/mt.
• But physical Europe remains tight: ARA jet stocks fell 14.3% w/w to 437 kt — lowest since 2020.
• ARA diesel stocks rose 11% to 1.816 mt, but largely because Rhine logistics are blocking inland movement.
• Kaub fell to around 0 cm — effectively separating ARA inventories from inland German supply.
• China’s October product exports are uncertain after late quotas, Golden Week customs disruption and reported cargo cancellations.
• Singapore jet/kero cash premium jumped to +$5.41/b vs MOPS, a five-month high.
• Russia extended the diesel export ban through October.
FERTILIZERS
• Urea weakened after another round of Chinese export allocations.
• Egypt granular: $510–525/mt FOB.
• Middle East: $440–450/mt FOB.
• Brazil: $465–485/mt CFR.
• India’s 1.7 mt IPL tender on Oct 7 is now the key global pricing event.
AGRI
• US corn: −$12/mt.
• Soybeans: −$12–15/mt.
• Soymeal: −$24–30/mt.
• Winter wheat: −$8–10/mt.
• Harvest pressure and improved soymeal availability are now dominating US agri markets.
MARKET SIGNAL
Supply is improving faster than logistics.
More crude is available. More strategic barrels are being released. More Chinese urea is entering the system.
But tanker capacity, route access, Rhine logistics and regional product availability remain constrained.
That means headline prices can fall sharply while delivered replacement costs stay elevated.
Full weekly analysis:
https://commodityscope.com/news/261003
Physical markets ended the week with a major shift: the freight shock is no longer only a Persian Gulf story — it has spread aggressively into the Atlantic and Black Sea.
CRUDE & FREIGHT
• Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted despite improving Middle East export volumes.
• PG–China VLCC held near w1135 versus Gulf of Oman around w750–800 — the location premium remains extreme.
• Saudi Yanbu loadings recovered to ~2.8 mb/d, restoring part of Red Sea export flexibility.
• WAF–Europe Suezmax freight surged from ~$75.7/mt to ~$150.6/mt in four days.
• Black Sea–Med Suezmax reached ~w967.5.
• Brazil–China VLCC freight hit a record w625.
• High freight is now forcing West African crude differentials sharply lower.
REFINED PRODUCTS
• G7 agreed a coordinated 100 mb strategic stock release, including front-loaded diesel.
• ICE LSGO dropped $95.75/mt in one session to $1,355.50/mt.
• But physical Europe remains tight: ARA jet stocks fell 14.3% w/w to 437 kt — lowest since 2020.
• ARA diesel stocks rose 11% to 1.816 mt, but largely because Rhine logistics are blocking inland movement.
• Kaub fell to around 0 cm — effectively separating ARA inventories from inland German supply.
• China’s October product exports are uncertain after late quotas, Golden Week customs disruption and reported cargo cancellations.
• Singapore jet/kero cash premium jumped to +$5.41/b vs MOPS, a five-month high.
• Russia extended the diesel export ban through October.
FERTILIZERS
• Urea weakened after another round of Chinese export allocations.
• Egypt granular: $510–525/mt FOB.
• Middle East: $440–450/mt FOB.
• Brazil: $465–485/mt CFR.
• India’s 1.7 mt IPL tender on Oct 7 is now the key global pricing event.
AGRI
• US corn: −$12/mt.
• Soybeans: −$12–15/mt.
• Soymeal: −$24–30/mt.
• Winter wheat: −$8–10/mt.
• Harvest pressure and improved soymeal availability are now dominating US agri markets.
MARKET SIGNAL
Supply is improving faster than logistics.
More crude is available. More strategic barrels are being released. More Chinese urea is entering the system.
But tanker capacity, route access, Rhine logistics and regional product availability remain constrained.
That means headline prices can fall sharply while delivered replacement costs stay elevated.
Full weekly analysis:
https://commodityscope.com/news/261003
CommodityScope
Physical Commodity Markets Weekly | October 3, 2026
Atlantic tanker freight surges, Hormuz remains disrupted, strategic stock releases pressure diesel prices, Chinese export constraints tighten jet supply and agricultural markets weaken under harvest pressure.
😎2
📊 COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — 5 OCT 2026
The main market driver today is the sharp rise in dirty tanker freight, combined with weaker crude differentials and continued disruption across Middle East flows.
🛢 CRUDE / OSP
Saudi Aramco sharply cut November OSPs for Asia:
• Arab Light: -$5/bbl vs Oman/Dubai
• Down $3/bbl m/m
• Medium and Heavy: down $5/bbl
The market had largely expected unchanged OSPs.
Brent Dec: $100.32/bbl ▼ $1.93
WTI Nov: $89.43/bbl ▼ $1.68
The G7 also announced the release of 100M bbl from emergency reserves, alongside additional US SPR barrels.
This adds bearish pressure to second-half October crude fundamentals.
—
🚢 DIRTY FREIGHT
Suezmax and VLCC rates accelerated sharply.
PG → China VLCC 270kt:
WS1185
Gulf of Oman:
WS750–800
WAF → UKC Suezmax 130kt:
WS1000 ▲125 d/d
Black Sea → Med 135kt:
WS1057.5 ▲90
WAF → East VLCC:
WS665 ▲15
GVI 7 Non-Eco:
$1.096M/day
DTI Non-Eco:
$856,790/day
Med / Black Sea freight has moved into levels described by market participants as “uncharted territory.”
—
🌍 PHYSICAL CRUDE
High freight is now weighing directly on crude differentials.
Djeno vs Dated Brent:
-$21.00/bbl ▼ $5.40 d/d
Tupi vs LA Dated Brent:
-$18.15/bbl ▼ $5.80 d/d
WCS Hardisty vs WTI CMA:
-$24.60/bbl
For WCS, this is the weakest level since November 2023.
The rise in transport costs is increasingly eroding the competitiveness of long-haul WAF and Atlantic Basin barrels.
—
⛽ CLEAN PRODUCTS / FREIGHT
The clean tanker market is moving in the opposite direction.
East of Suez LR freight softened as vessel availability increased and fixture activity slowed.
PG → Japan LR1:
WS900
PG → Japan LR2:
WS910
Global Clean Tanker Index:
120,548 ▼963
Global MR weighted TCE:
$58,229/day ▼ $1,523
MR weakness in North Asia is beginning to spill into the LR segment.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
ARA diesel/gasoil stocks rose to:
1.816M MT ▲180kt w/w
Still 18% below the same week last year.
Rhine water level at Kaub improved to around 6 cm, though another decline is expected.
European jet remains supported by limited Asian supply and elevated freight economics, while potential Chinese export restrictions continue to tighten availability.
—
🇷🇺 RUSSIA
Russia’s September seaborne crude exports reached:
4.088M b/d ▲8% m/m
China: 1.415M b/d ▲22% m/m
India: 816kb/d ▼59% m/m
Deputy PM Novak said the diesel export ban could be partially lifted if domestic production returns to surplus.
Meanwhile, another strike hit the Volgograd refinery on Oct. 2.
—
🌾 UREA
Sentiment remains weak after the latest downward adjustment.
Egypt granular FOB:
$500–520/t ▼
NOLA FOB:
$434–438/st ▼
Nigeria, Middle East and Brazil were broadly unchanged.
The IPL tender for 1.7M MT closes this week, while Chinese suppliers remain largely absent during Golden Week.
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Brent / WTI ↓
Dirty freight ↑↑
WAF / Black Sea Suezmax at extreme levels
Physical crude differentials ↓
Clean freight ↓
ARA distillate stocks ↑
Urea sentiment weak
The clearest signal remains the divergence between flat-price crude and physical freight.
Transport costs are now reshaping crude competitiveness and regional flow economics faster than outright benchmark prices.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Freight #VLCC #Suezmax #Tankers #Diesel #JetFuel #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
The main market driver today is the sharp rise in dirty tanker freight, combined with weaker crude differentials and continued disruption across Middle East flows.
🛢 CRUDE / OSP
Saudi Aramco sharply cut November OSPs for Asia:
• Arab Light: -$5/bbl vs Oman/Dubai
• Down $3/bbl m/m
• Medium and Heavy: down $5/bbl
The market had largely expected unchanged OSPs.
Brent Dec: $100.32/bbl ▼ $1.93
WTI Nov: $89.43/bbl ▼ $1.68
The G7 also announced the release of 100M bbl from emergency reserves, alongside additional US SPR barrels.
This adds bearish pressure to second-half October crude fundamentals.
—
🚢 DIRTY FREIGHT
Suezmax and VLCC rates accelerated sharply.
PG → China VLCC 270kt:
WS1185
Gulf of Oman:
WS750–800
WAF → UKC Suezmax 130kt:
WS1000 ▲125 d/d
Black Sea → Med 135kt:
WS1057.5 ▲90
WAF → East VLCC:
WS665 ▲15
GVI 7 Non-Eco:
$1.096M/day
DTI Non-Eco:
$856,790/day
Med / Black Sea freight has moved into levels described by market participants as “uncharted territory.”
—
🌍 PHYSICAL CRUDE
High freight is now weighing directly on crude differentials.
Djeno vs Dated Brent:
-$21.00/bbl ▼ $5.40 d/d
Tupi vs LA Dated Brent:
-$18.15/bbl ▼ $5.80 d/d
WCS Hardisty vs WTI CMA:
-$24.60/bbl
For WCS, this is the weakest level since November 2023.
The rise in transport costs is increasingly eroding the competitiveness of long-haul WAF and Atlantic Basin barrels.
—
⛽ CLEAN PRODUCTS / FREIGHT
The clean tanker market is moving in the opposite direction.
East of Suez LR freight softened as vessel availability increased and fixture activity slowed.
PG → Japan LR1:
WS900
PG → Japan LR2:
WS910
Global Clean Tanker Index:
120,548 ▼963
Global MR weighted TCE:
$58,229/day ▼ $1,523
MR weakness in North Asia is beginning to spill into the LR segment.
—
🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
ARA diesel/gasoil stocks rose to:
1.816M MT ▲180kt w/w
Still 18% below the same week last year.
Rhine water level at Kaub improved to around 6 cm, though another decline is expected.
European jet remains supported by limited Asian supply and elevated freight economics, while potential Chinese export restrictions continue to tighten availability.
—
🇷🇺 RUSSIA
Russia’s September seaborne crude exports reached:
4.088M b/d ▲8% m/m
China: 1.415M b/d ▲22% m/m
India: 816kb/d ▼59% m/m
Deputy PM Novak said the diesel export ban could be partially lifted if domestic production returns to surplus.
Meanwhile, another strike hit the Volgograd refinery on Oct. 2.
—
🌾 UREA
Sentiment remains weak after the latest downward adjustment.
Egypt granular FOB:
$500–520/t ▼
NOLA FOB:
$434–438/st ▼
Nigeria, Middle East and Brazil were broadly unchanged.
The IPL tender for 1.7M MT closes this week, while Chinese suppliers remain largely absent during Golden Week.
—
MARKET SIGNAL
Brent / WTI ↓
Dirty freight ↑↑
WAF / Black Sea Suezmax at extreme levels
Physical crude differentials ↓
Clean freight ↓
ARA distillate stocks ↑
Urea sentiment weak
The clearest signal remains the divergence between flat-price crude and physical freight.
Transport costs are now reshaping crude competitiveness and regional flow economics faster than outright benchmark prices.
commodityscope.com
#CommodityScope #Commodities #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Freight #VLCC #Suezmax #Tankers #Diesel #JetFuel #Urea #Fertilizers #CommodityTrading
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 6, 2026
### CRUDE OIL
Middle East crude markets softened as surging freight costs continued to pressure FOB economics.
• Cash Dubai premium: $10.58/b, ↓$2.88/b d/d — five-week low
• Iraq September exports: 2.96 mb/d, ↑25% MoM
• Saudi East-West pipeline: 5.8 mb/d as of Oct 6
Atlantic Basin differentials weakened sharply under record freight.
• Brazil Tupi: −$19.85/b vs LA Dated Brent strip — lowest since assessment began
• Angolan Hungo: −$19.60/b vs Dated Brent — lowest since 2006
• Nigerian Forcados offers heard around +$4.50/b, down from roughly +$10/b
### DIRTY FREIGHT — RECORD LEVELS
🚢 Gulf of Oman → Far East VLCC: $163.68/mt ↑3.1% — all-time high
🚢 PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1,210
🚢 WAF → Far East VLCC: WS693 ↑28 — record
🚢 Brazil → China VLCC: WS665 ↑35 — record
🚢 Caribbean → UKC 145kt: $162.95/mt — record
🚢 WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS965 ↓35
VLCC demand remains exceptionally strong, with charterers even reviewing VLCCs to cover some Suezmax stems.
### REFINED PRODUCTS
Global middle-distillate supply remains tight despite softer Asian gasoil structure.
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil differential: +$3.21/b ↓$0.21
• Nov/Dec Singapore gasoil spread: $4.40/b
• US distillate stocks estimated at 103.7 mb, ↓1.5 mb w/w
• Inventories remain roughly 12.5% below the five-year average
Policy remains a major variable:
• G7 agreed to release 100 mb from strategic reserves over four months
• China suspended refined-product exports, potentially into November
• Russia is reportedly considering a partial easing of its diesel export ban during October
### MARINE FUELS
Singapore HSFO remains structurally tight.
• 380 CST cash differential: +$45.42/mt
• October ex-wharf premiums: mid/high-$50s/mt over FOB Singapore
Persistent prompt supply tightness continues to support HSFO margins and bunker premiums.
### CLEAN TANKERS
East-of-Suez clean freight remains elevated despite softer MR demand in North Asia.
🚢 Singapore → Australia MR round trip: ~$80,000/day
🚢 South Korea → Australia: ~$60,000/day
🚢 UKC → WAF 37kt: $51.96/mt — near five-month highs
🚢 Med → Med MR: WS352.5 ↑7.5
🚢 Black Sea → Med MR: WS382.5 ↑7.5
Southeast Asian freight remains supported by spillover from extremely expensive Persian Gulf positioning.
### MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Dirty freight is the dominant physical-market signal, with several VLCC routes at record highs.
🔻 Record freight is crushing Atlantic Basin crude differentials, especially Brazil and West Africa.
🔺 HSFO remains tight in Singapore, supporting strong cash and ex-wharf premiums.
🔻 Asian gasoil structure softened, but global distillate inventories remain constrained.
🔺 Clean tanker earnings remain historically elevated despite some easing in North Asian MR demand.
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
### CRUDE OIL
Middle East crude markets softened as surging freight costs continued to pressure FOB economics.
• Cash Dubai premium: $10.58/b, ↓$2.88/b d/d — five-week low
• Iraq September exports: 2.96 mb/d, ↑25% MoM
• Saudi East-West pipeline: 5.8 mb/d as of Oct 6
Atlantic Basin differentials weakened sharply under record freight.
• Brazil Tupi: −$19.85/b vs LA Dated Brent strip — lowest since assessment began
• Angolan Hungo: −$19.60/b vs Dated Brent — lowest since 2006
• Nigerian Forcados offers heard around +$4.50/b, down from roughly +$10/b
### DIRTY FREIGHT — RECORD LEVELS
🚢 Gulf of Oman → Far East VLCC: $163.68/mt ↑3.1% — all-time high
🚢 PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1,210
🚢 WAF → Far East VLCC: WS693 ↑28 — record
🚢 Brazil → China VLCC: WS665 ↑35 — record
🚢 Caribbean → UKC 145kt: $162.95/mt — record
🚢 WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS965 ↓35
VLCC demand remains exceptionally strong, with charterers even reviewing VLCCs to cover some Suezmax stems.
### REFINED PRODUCTS
Global middle-distillate supply remains tight despite softer Asian gasoil structure.
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil differential: +$3.21/b ↓$0.21
• Nov/Dec Singapore gasoil spread: $4.40/b
• US distillate stocks estimated at 103.7 mb, ↓1.5 mb w/w
• Inventories remain roughly 12.5% below the five-year average
Policy remains a major variable:
• G7 agreed to release 100 mb from strategic reserves over four months
• China suspended refined-product exports, potentially into November
• Russia is reportedly considering a partial easing of its diesel export ban during October
### MARINE FUELS
Singapore HSFO remains structurally tight.
• 380 CST cash differential: +$45.42/mt
• October ex-wharf premiums: mid/high-$50s/mt over FOB Singapore
Persistent prompt supply tightness continues to support HSFO margins and bunker premiums.
### CLEAN TANKERS
East-of-Suez clean freight remains elevated despite softer MR demand in North Asia.
🚢 Singapore → Australia MR round trip: ~$80,000/day
🚢 South Korea → Australia: ~$60,000/day
🚢 UKC → WAF 37kt: $51.96/mt — near five-month highs
🚢 Med → Med MR: WS352.5 ↑7.5
🚢 Black Sea → Med MR: WS382.5 ↑7.5
Southeast Asian freight remains supported by spillover from extremely expensive Persian Gulf positioning.
### MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Dirty freight is the dominant physical-market signal, with several VLCC routes at record highs.
🔻 Record freight is crushing Atlantic Basin crude differentials, especially Brazil and West Africa.
🔺 HSFO remains tight in Singapore, supporting strong cash and ex-wharf premiums.
🔻 Asian gasoil structure softened, but global distillate inventories remain constrained.
🔺 Clean tanker earnings remain historically elevated despite some easing in North Asian MR demand.
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
❤1
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 7, 2026
### CRUDE OIL
Crude prices moved sharply higher while prompt Brent structure remained exceptionally tight.
• Dated Brent: $129.09/b ↑$5.19
• Brent Dec: $101.57/b ↑$2.96
• WTI Nov: $88.28/b ↓$1.16
• Dubai Dec: $105.93/b ↑$0.24
Prompt Dated Brent backwardation remains extreme:
• Oct 12–16 CFD: +$20.50/b
• Oct 19–23: ~+$11.70–12.10/b
• Oct 26–30: +$6.50–6.80/b
Middle East physical flows improved, but Hormuz remains the critical risk point. Vitol estimated regional flows reached as much as 14 mb/d over the prior 7–10 days, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was running at 5.8 mb/d.
### DIRTY FREIGHT — NEW RECORDS
VLCC freight pushed to fresh highs across multiple basins.
🚢 Gulf of Oman → Far East: $166.66/mt ↑1.8% — record
🚢 PG → China 270kt: WS1,225
🚢 USGC → China: $240.74/mt ↑6.56% — record
🚢 WAF → East 260kt: WS725 ↑32
🚢 Brazil → China: WS710 ↑10 — record
US Gulf VLCC lump-sum economics also surged:
• USGC → China: ~$81 million
• USGC → UKC: ~$40 million
Charterers are increasingly splitting stems or downsizing as VLCC costs move deeper into historically extreme territory.
### ATLANTIC CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Record freight continues to distort Atlantic Basin crude pricing.
• WCS Hardisty: −$25.30/b vs WTI CMA — widest since Nov 2023
• Dalia: −$11.85/b, ↓$2 d/d
• Girassol: −$7.90/b, ↓$2
• Tupi: −$20.30/b — lowest since 2021
• Castilla: −$17.05/b
At the same time, short-haul North Sea barrels are gaining value as long-haul freight becomes prohibitive.
### REFINED PRODUCTS
Asia refined-product flat prices moved sharply higher:
• Singapore jet/kero: $173.48/b ↑$3.50
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil: $168.36/b ↑$3.62
• Singapore 92 gasoline: $147.31/b ↑$1.44
Europe also saw major flat-price gains:
• NWE jet CIF: $1,611.75/mt ↑$103.75
• NWE ULSD 10ppm FOB: $1,409.25/mt ↑$86.25
• Med jet FOB: $1,555.50/mt ↑$103.00
However, the transatlantic diesel arbitrage remains firmly shut:
• USGC → NWE: −$3.09/b
• USGC → Med: −$4.93/b
Expected US diesel/gasoil loadings to Europe in October are around 1.27 mn mt, down roughly 292kt m/m.
### MARINE FUELS
The East-West 0.5%S fuel-oil spread widened to a record.
• Singapore 0.5%S vs Rotterdam: $173.50/mt
• Previous session: $140/mt
• Singapore 0.5%S cash premium: +$25.90/mt
• Front-month 0.5%S crack: $26.45/b
The East-West spread is now the widest since Platts began the series in 2022.
Fujairah inventories also showed sharp moves:
• Light distillates: 559k bbl ↓1.057 mn bbl w/w
• Middle distillates: 2.292 mn bbl ↓398k
• Heavy residues: 4.723 mn bbl ↑813k
### CLEAN TANKERS
East-of-Suez clean freight remains very firm, especially around the Persian Gulf.
LR1 and LR2 rates moved higher, while some LR2 owners are considering switching vessels into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
Inside-PG loading continues to command a significant premium because of Hormuz risk.
In the Atlantic, however, MR rates weakened:
🚢 USGC → UKC 38kt: WS300 ↓60
🚢 USGC → Brazil: WS370
🚢 USGC → Chile: $3.6 million ↓$0.2m
### US INVENTORIES
US crude inventories fell further:
• Crude stocks: 424.13 mn bbl ↓3.19 mn
• Crude exports: 4.77 mb/d ↑33%
• Cushing stocks: 24.75 mn bbl ↑440k
• Canadian crude imports: 3.89 mb/d
US Gulf refinery utilization remains high at 95.9%.
### UREA
International urea markets remain under downward pressure ahead of India’s latest tender results.
• Middle East granular FOB: $420–430/t ↓$10
• Nigeria FOB: $440–450/t ↓$10
• Egypt FOB: $490–500/t ↓$5
• Brazil CFR: $460–480/t ↓$5
• NOLA FOB: $419–423/st ↓$10.50
India’s IPL tender is seeking 1.7 mn t, with loading by Dec 1.
Market speculation points to offers below $370/t CFR for one Indian coast, which could imply Chinese prilled urea netbacks below $340/t FOB if confirmed.
### MARKET
### CRUDE OIL
Crude prices moved sharply higher while prompt Brent structure remained exceptionally tight.
• Dated Brent: $129.09/b ↑$5.19
• Brent Dec: $101.57/b ↑$2.96
• WTI Nov: $88.28/b ↓$1.16
• Dubai Dec: $105.93/b ↑$0.24
Prompt Dated Brent backwardation remains extreme:
• Oct 12–16 CFD: +$20.50/b
• Oct 19–23: ~+$11.70–12.10/b
• Oct 26–30: +$6.50–6.80/b
Middle East physical flows improved, but Hormuz remains the critical risk point. Vitol estimated regional flows reached as much as 14 mb/d over the prior 7–10 days, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was running at 5.8 mb/d.
### DIRTY FREIGHT — NEW RECORDS
VLCC freight pushed to fresh highs across multiple basins.
🚢 Gulf of Oman → Far East: $166.66/mt ↑1.8% — record
🚢 PG → China 270kt: WS1,225
🚢 USGC → China: $240.74/mt ↑6.56% — record
🚢 WAF → East 260kt: WS725 ↑32
🚢 Brazil → China: WS710 ↑10 — record
US Gulf VLCC lump-sum economics also surged:
• USGC → China: ~$81 million
• USGC → UKC: ~$40 million
Charterers are increasingly splitting stems or downsizing as VLCC costs move deeper into historically extreme territory.
### ATLANTIC CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Record freight continues to distort Atlantic Basin crude pricing.
• WCS Hardisty: −$25.30/b vs WTI CMA — widest since Nov 2023
• Dalia: −$11.85/b, ↓$2 d/d
• Girassol: −$7.90/b, ↓$2
• Tupi: −$20.30/b — lowest since 2021
• Castilla: −$17.05/b
At the same time, short-haul North Sea barrels are gaining value as long-haul freight becomes prohibitive.
### REFINED PRODUCTS
Asia refined-product flat prices moved sharply higher:
• Singapore jet/kero: $173.48/b ↑$3.50
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil: $168.36/b ↑$3.62
• Singapore 92 gasoline: $147.31/b ↑$1.44
Europe also saw major flat-price gains:
• NWE jet CIF: $1,611.75/mt ↑$103.75
• NWE ULSD 10ppm FOB: $1,409.25/mt ↑$86.25
• Med jet FOB: $1,555.50/mt ↑$103.00
However, the transatlantic diesel arbitrage remains firmly shut:
• USGC → NWE: −$3.09/b
• USGC → Med: −$4.93/b
Expected US diesel/gasoil loadings to Europe in October are around 1.27 mn mt, down roughly 292kt m/m.
### MARINE FUELS
The East-West 0.5%S fuel-oil spread widened to a record.
• Singapore 0.5%S vs Rotterdam: $173.50/mt
• Previous session: $140/mt
• Singapore 0.5%S cash premium: +$25.90/mt
• Front-month 0.5%S crack: $26.45/b
The East-West spread is now the widest since Platts began the series in 2022.
Fujairah inventories also showed sharp moves:
• Light distillates: 559k bbl ↓1.057 mn bbl w/w
• Middle distillates: 2.292 mn bbl ↓398k
• Heavy residues: 4.723 mn bbl ↑813k
### CLEAN TANKERS
East-of-Suez clean freight remains very firm, especially around the Persian Gulf.
LR1 and LR2 rates moved higher, while some LR2 owners are considering switching vessels into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
Inside-PG loading continues to command a significant premium because of Hormuz risk.
In the Atlantic, however, MR rates weakened:
🚢 USGC → UKC 38kt: WS300 ↓60
🚢 USGC → Brazil: WS370
🚢 USGC → Chile: $3.6 million ↓$0.2m
### US INVENTORIES
US crude inventories fell further:
• Crude stocks: 424.13 mn bbl ↓3.19 mn
• Crude exports: 4.77 mb/d ↑33%
• Cushing stocks: 24.75 mn bbl ↑440k
• Canadian crude imports: 3.89 mb/d
US Gulf refinery utilization remains high at 95.9%.
### UREA
International urea markets remain under downward pressure ahead of India’s latest tender results.
• Middle East granular FOB: $420–430/t ↓$10
• Nigeria FOB: $440–450/t ↓$10
• Egypt FOB: $490–500/t ↓$5
• Brazil CFR: $460–480/t ↓$5
• NOLA FOB: $419–423/st ↓$10.50
India’s IPL tender is seeking 1.7 mn t, with loading by Dec 1.
Market speculation points to offers below $370/t CFR for one Indian coast, which could imply Chinese prilled urea netbacks below $340/t FOB if confirmed.
### MARKET
❤1
SIGNAL
🔺 VLCC freight continues setting records, with Gulf, USGC and Brazil routes all at extreme levels.
🔺 Prompt crude structure remains exceptionally tight, led by Dated Brent backwardation.
🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain under heavy pressure as freight destroys long-haul economics.
🔺 European and Asian refined-product flat prices jumped sharply, especially jet and diesel.
🔺 Singapore–Rotterdam 0.5%S East-West spread reached a record $173.50/mt.
🔻 Urea continues lower as the market waits for pricing from India’s 1.7 mn t tender.
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
🔺 VLCC freight continues setting records, with Gulf, USGC and Brazil routes all at extreme levels.
🔺 Prompt crude structure remains exceptionally tight, led by Dated Brent backwardation.
🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain under heavy pressure as freight destroys long-haul economics.
🔺 European and Asian refined-product flat prices jumped sharply, especially jet and diesel.
🔺 Singapore–Rotterdam 0.5%S East-West spread reached a record $173.50/mt.
🔻 Urea continues lower as the market waits for pricing from India’s 1.7 mn t tender.
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 8, 2026
Oil, freight and products all moved sharply — but not in the same direction.
CRUDE
Middle East pricing strengthened:
• Platts cash Dubai: $110.70/b ↑$4.77
• Dubai premium vs futures: +$10.72/b ↑$1.30
ADNOC set November Murban at +$11/b vs Platts Dubai, while SOMO cut November Basrah pricing for Asia, with Basrah Medium at −$2.80/b vs Oman/Dubai.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced major US Gulf shut-ins:
• US GoM oil offline: 1.283 mb/d
• WTI Nov: $91.49/b ↑$3.21
• Brent Dec: $104.28/b ↑$4.08
---
DIRTY FREIGHT
The tanker market remains one of the strongest signals in physical oil.
🚢 WAF → East VLCC: WS762.5 ↑37.5
🚢 WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS975 ↑50
🚢 Black Sea → Med: WS1000
🚢 Brazil → China VLCC: WS725 — record
🚢 Vancouver → China Aframax: $15m ↑$1m
Inside the Persian Gulf, VLCC indications reached WS1270–1300, versus roughly WS820–950 from the Gulf of Oman.
That freight gap is increasingly reshaping crude economics across the Atlantic and Middle East.
---
REFINED PRODUCTS
European diesel and jet surged again.
• ICE LSGO: $1,512/mt ↑$91
• NWE ULSD FOB: $1,476.25/mt ↑$67
• Med ULSD FOB: $1,462.50/mt ↑$70.75
• NWE Jet CIF: $1,679.50/mt ↑$67.75
• Med Jet CIF: $1,678.00/mt ↑$67.75
US inventories are also tightening:
• ULSD stocks: 93.73 mb ↓655kb
• Jet stocks: 42.50 mb ↓1.11mb
Jet is becoming increasingly tight as East-of-Suez flows fall, US stocks decline and refiners prioritise diesel.
---
CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR freight strengthened for a second session.
🚢 AG → Japan LR1: WS925
🚢 AG → Japan LR2: WS910
🚢 Yanbu → UKC LR2: ~$12m
Global LR2 TCE pushed above $250k/day, while some owners are considering switching LR2s into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
---
UREA — SHARP BREAK LOWER
India’s IPL tender triggered another major repricing.
• Lowest East Coast offer: $352/t CFR
• China prilled FOB: $320–355/t ↓$35
• Egypt granular FOB: $464–480/t ↓$23
• Brazil CFR: $455–470/t ↓$7.5
The $352/t CFR offer shocked the market and implies Chinese netbacks as low as roughly $320/t FOB.
---
MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Crude flat prices rebounded sharply
🔺 Dirty tanker freight remains historically extreme
🔺 European diesel and jet strengthened again
🔺 US product inventories continue tightening
🔺 Clean LR freight remains firm around Hormuz
🔻 Urea broke sharply lower on India tender pricing
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Shipping #Urea #Commodities
Oil, freight and products all moved sharply — but not in the same direction.
CRUDE
Middle East pricing strengthened:
• Platts cash Dubai: $110.70/b ↑$4.77
• Dubai premium vs futures: +$10.72/b ↑$1.30
ADNOC set November Murban at +$11/b vs Platts Dubai, while SOMO cut November Basrah pricing for Asia, with Basrah Medium at −$2.80/b vs Oman/Dubai.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced major US Gulf shut-ins:
• US GoM oil offline: 1.283 mb/d
• WTI Nov: $91.49/b ↑$3.21
• Brent Dec: $104.28/b ↑$4.08
---
DIRTY FREIGHT
The tanker market remains one of the strongest signals in physical oil.
🚢 WAF → East VLCC: WS762.5 ↑37.5
🚢 WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS975 ↑50
🚢 Black Sea → Med: WS1000
🚢 Brazil → China VLCC: WS725 — record
🚢 Vancouver → China Aframax: $15m ↑$1m
Inside the Persian Gulf, VLCC indications reached WS1270–1300, versus roughly WS820–950 from the Gulf of Oman.
That freight gap is increasingly reshaping crude economics across the Atlantic and Middle East.
---
REFINED PRODUCTS
European diesel and jet surged again.
• ICE LSGO: $1,512/mt ↑$91
• NWE ULSD FOB: $1,476.25/mt ↑$67
• Med ULSD FOB: $1,462.50/mt ↑$70.75
• NWE Jet CIF: $1,679.50/mt ↑$67.75
• Med Jet CIF: $1,678.00/mt ↑$67.75
US inventories are also tightening:
• ULSD stocks: 93.73 mb ↓655kb
• Jet stocks: 42.50 mb ↓1.11mb
Jet is becoming increasingly tight as East-of-Suez flows fall, US stocks decline and refiners prioritise diesel.
---
CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR freight strengthened for a second session.
🚢 AG → Japan LR1: WS925
🚢 AG → Japan LR2: WS910
🚢 Yanbu → UKC LR2: ~$12m
Global LR2 TCE pushed above $250k/day, while some owners are considering switching LR2s into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
---
UREA — SHARP BREAK LOWER
India’s IPL tender triggered another major repricing.
• Lowest East Coast offer: $352/t CFR
• China prilled FOB: $320–355/t ↓$35
• Egypt granular FOB: $464–480/t ↓$23
• Brazil CFR: $455–470/t ↓$7.5
The $352/t CFR offer shocked the market and implies Chinese netbacks as low as roughly $320/t FOB.
---
MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Crude flat prices rebounded sharply
🔺 Dirty tanker freight remains historically extreme
🔺 European diesel and jet strengthened again
🔺 US product inventories continue tightening
🔺 Clean LR freight remains firm around Hormuz
🔻 Urea broke sharply lower on India tender pricing
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Shipping #Urea #Commodities