Lululemon (LULU) shares plunged 20% following their earnings release. They are now trading at their lowest level since 2018.
I looked into this company earlier this year, well before the latest data came in. In this post, I’ll share some retrospective alpha👇 on why I decided to pass on it back then, so you know what warning signs to look out for.
Let’s take a retrospective look at the company as if we were analyzing it at the start of this year. Back then (just like now), the price looked very tempting.
However, margins across the board were contracting compared to the company’s own historical averages (and continuous expansion is critical). On top of that, guidance was already weak back then, another major red flag signaling a sharp slowdown across all key metrics �
The company has clearly peaked and isn't poised for growth anytime soon. With companies like this—especially outside the tech sector—it’s best not to buy in hoping for a miracle. The odds of finding a new growth catalyst are slim. Just look at Nike, which has been sliding for five years now.
A miracle could always happen, of course, but let’s not gamble with our own money 🤩
Is it worth doing breakdowns of underperforming companies? Drop a like to let me know 👍
I looked into this company earlier this year, well before the latest data came in. In this post, I’ll share some retrospective alpha
Lululemon is a leading global designer, distributor, and retailer of premium athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories.
Let’s take a retrospective look at the company as if we were analyzing it at the start of this year. Back then (just like now), the price looked very tempting.
The positives:🔠 Consistently growing year-over-year revenue (everything looks great on the surface)🔠 Solid cash reserves on the balance sheet🔠 There is debt, but it doesn't pose an immediate threat—all good here🔠 Free Cash Flow isn’t skyrocketing, but it’s certainly not bad either🔠 P/E Ratio dropped to 9.83 (looks like a no-brainer buy, right?)🔠 Strong margins compared to peers—Lululemon outpaces the vast majority of the market in profitability
However, margins across the board were contracting compared to the company’s own historical averages (and continuous expansion is critical). On top of that, guidance was already weak back then, another major red flag signaling a sharp slowdown across all key metrics �
The company has clearly peaked and isn't poised for growth anytime soon. With companies like this—especially outside the tech sector—it’s best not to buy in hoping for a miracle. The odds of finding a new growth catalyst are slim. Just look at Nike, which has been sliding for five years now.
A miracle could always happen, of course, but let’s not gamble with our own money 🤩
Is it worth doing breakdowns of underperforming companies? Drop a like to let me know 👍
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Bears are still expecting Bitcoin below $50k this fall. Their scenario could play out if BTC doesn’t push above $83k anytime soon 🐼
Bearish divergences on the 4H and 1D are also fueling their optimism.
What’s your move?
🕊 – Waiting for a drop toward ~$50k
🐳 – Long only, all the way to $170k
👍 – Buying now, and loading up more if it dips
Bearish divergences on the 4H and 1D are also fueling their optimism.
What’s your move?
🕊 – Waiting for a drop toward ~$50k
🐳 – Long only, all the way to $170k
👍 – Buying now, and loading up more if it dips
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US gas prices have surged to a 3-month high of $4.15 per gallon. And that’s good news 🤒
Trump’s failure to bring down gas prices will force his hand ahead of the midterm elections:
🟢 Avoid further escalation to keep oil prices in check
🟢 Pump the stock and crypto markets to shore up Republican support
This strategy also carries serious risks:
🔴 A Republican defeat works in Iran’s favor, giving them every incentive to escalate on their own
🔴 The narrative that "Trump = market rally" could shatter if Republicans get routed in the midterms (the odds of Democrats taking both chambers sit at 52%)
American voters don’t care about another Trump "victory" in the Iranian conflict—they care about the price at the pump.
Trump’s failure to bring down gas prices will force his hand ahead of the midterm elections:
This strategy also carries serious risks:
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AI will wipe out humanity before December 31, 2029 💀
Right now, everyone is buzzing about the emerging threat of artificial superintelligence (AGI) taking control or outright annihilating the meatbags known as humans.
Timeline:
All three point to the central issue: corporations cannot afford to halt AGI development because someone else will inevitably build it first. Yet, not a single company currently knows how to keep AGI under control.
What’s next:
Drop a 🔥 if you want an in-depth breakdown focused on the economic and market fallout.
Right now, everyone is buzzing about the emerging threat of artificial superintelligence (AGI) taking control or outright annihilating the meatbags known as humans.
Timeline:
▶️ The "Godfather of AI" and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton warns of catastrophic consequences if superintelligence is built without the means to control it▶️ Anthropic AI researcher Jacob Coxon announces his departure from both the company and the entire industry, convinced that AI could destroy humanity before the end of the decade▶️ Evan Hubinger, an AI safety lead at Anthropic, echoed his former colleague’s forecast, estimating a 10% chance of human extinction
All three point to the central issue: corporations cannot afford to halt AGI development because someone else will inevitably build it first. Yet, not a single company currently knows how to keep AGI under control.
What’s next:
⏺ The prize for building AGI is simply too massive for anyone to freeze development and cap neural networks at their current level⏺ Regulatory and corporate oversight will slow down the pace, but investors will interpret this as de-risking the sector and pour even more capital into AI stocks🟢 The AI turf wars for market share in play, depending on the outcome, AI companies may face a major valuation reset, but sectors like cybersecurity and energy are set to win regardless
Drop a 🔥 if you want an in-depth breakdown focused on the economic and market fallout.
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Btw, recently came across info that five years ago Nike set targets to bring the share of 'racial and ethnic minorities' to 35% in corporate roles and 30% among directors by 2025. Executive bonuses were tied to gender and racial diversity (DEI) metrics.
I honestly don't even know what to say... Somewhere, a miscalculation was made, but where???
I honestly don't even know what to say... Somewhere, a miscalculation was made, but where???
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Finally, an iPhone made for crypto bros... 😁
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Over 10 clients pay $100k a month for a 1.5-2 second head start on Trump's Truth Social posts.
And here's what they get😵💫
And here's what they get
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US government debt investors have just locked in their worst 10-year return in 223 years. Anyone who held Treasuries over the past decade lost money and that is before accounting for inflation 🩸
What happened:
As a result, while the rolling 10-year return on Treasuries had averaged 5.41% since 1793, by August 2026 it dropped to -1.85%. It is easy to see why the Treasury feels compelled to step into the bond market immediately, rolling out "diet QE" tomorrow by doubling its Treasury buyback program.
What’s next:
What happened:
▶️ In 2016, 10-year yields plunged to historic lows of 1.36%-1.5%▶️ In 2020–2021, the Fed fired up the printing press to counter the economic fallout of the pandemic, creating nearly $5 trillion out of thin air▶️ In 2022–2023, the Fed hiked interest rates from 0% to over 5% to combat inflation▶️ The nominal price of long-term Treasuries collapsed on the secondary market as newly issued yields surged, leaving coupon payments incapable of offsetting the capital losses
As a result, while the rolling 10-year return on Treasuries had averaged 5.41% since 1793, by August 2026 it dropped to -1.85%. It is easy to see why the Treasury feels compelled to step into the bond market immediately, rolling out "diet QE" tomorrow by doubling its Treasury buyback program.
What’s next:
If Bessent’s plan succeeds and yields decline, equities and crypto will gain fresh fuel to rally, convinced that the Treasury is ready to extinguish the fire with pure liquidity.
If the Treasury's plan falters, the reverse will unfold, opening up prime discount-buying opportunities. In that scenario, the US would be left with only one viable playbook: financial repression. Rates would be artificially pinned below inflation so the national debt can be inflated away through dollar devaluation.
Markets would be flooded with virtually limitless liquidity, but nominal asset gains would be eroded by that very currency depreciation. In the end, the only investors walking away with real wealth will be those whose assets can outpace inflation.
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Every generation makes the exact same mistake...
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Stop AI immediately! The narrative around the existential threat of AI to humanity is gaining serious momentum, with Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Elon Musk personally jumping into the fray. And this is where things get really interesting, casting doubt on their true motives.
The AI threat stormed onto the current agenda following a viral resignation post by an Anthropic employee. Soon after, the company itself dropped a bombshell titled "A 10% chance that AGI will wipe out humanity," doubling down on the narrative with a report on biological weapons development.
The heavyweights have entered the ring:
▶️ Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publishes an essay on the necessity of restricting AI development
▶️ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backs his primary rival, while OpenAI’s IPO gets pushed back to next year
▶️ Elon Musk chimes in to remind everyone he warned us all back in spring 2023:
When you put all the pieces together, what emerges isn't a genuine existential threat to humanity, because nobody actually intends to halt development. Instead, it looks like an orchestrated PR and marketing campaign where:
🟢 Anthropic aims for a record-breaking IPO, positioning itself as the only player capable of "protecting humanity" from AI
🟢 OpenAI lands the perfect pretext to delay its IPO until it can present financials strong enough to keep the bubble from bursting
💬 The AI boom marches on, markets will climb even higher, and any operational shortcomings or financial hiccups can simply be written off as "safety concerns."
The AI threat stormed onto the current agenda following a viral resignation post by an Anthropic employee. Soon after, the company itself dropped a bombshell titled "A 10% chance that AGI will wipe out humanity," doubling down on the narrative with a report on biological weapons development.
The heavyweights have entered the ring:
"I have seen the development of many technologies, but none carried this level of risk. In my view, AGI poses a significantly greater risk than nuclear weapons."
When you put all the pieces together, what emerges isn't a genuine existential threat to humanity, because nobody actually intends to halt development. Instead, it looks like an orchestrated PR and marketing campaign where:
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Wall Street top picks based on current market conditions 🐳
🛢 Trump is promising to end the war in Iran only after the midterm Congressional elections (November 3), while Iran intends to fight until 2029 and has seized control of a second maritime route out of the Middle East. The energy crisis is gaining momentum, and American oil producers are the ones profiting most from it:
💊 On August 19, Moderna surged 134% in a single day. AI has significantly accelerated new drug development; according to Bank of America, the next pharma winners will be:
🕡 In late August, Nvidia set a new revenue record, confirming that AI demand remains robust.
P.S. On Bitcoin, Wall Street whales are split down the middle: half are looking for $100k by year-end, while the other half expects $50k.
🛢 Trump is promising to end the war in Iran only after the midterm Congressional elections (November 3), while Iran intends to fight until 2029 and has seized control of a second maritime route out of the Middle East. The energy crisis is gaining momentum, and American oil producers are the ones profiting most from it:
⏺ Occidental Petroleum⏺ EOG Resources🔴 Marathon Petroleum – +137% YTD, makes sense to enter on a pullback🟢 Chevron – recently closed a $7B deal with Venezuela⏺ Enterprise Products
💊 On August 19, Moderna surged 134% in a single day. AI has significantly accelerated new drug development; according to Bank of America, the next pharma winners will be:
⏺ AstraZeneca – strong pipeline of new drugs and an attractive risk/reward profile⏺ Genmab – high conviction in positive Phase 3 clinical trial results later this year
Bank of America echoes this strong demand and recommends Micron Technology, viewing the recent dip in memory chipmakers as a buying opportunity. Current price: $977; the bank's target price: $1,550.
P.S. On Bitcoin, Wall Street whales are split down the middle: half are looking for $100k by year-end, while the other half expects $50k.
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Bitcoin’s peak price in the next cycle will land between $170k and $190k 😎
The math:
⏺ BTC gains slow down by an average of 28% each cycle: 115x → 21.7x → 7.9x
⏺ The next bull market will yield a 2.2x to 3.9x multiple from the $58k bottom: a range of $128k to $229k
⏺ Averaging the data points gives a potential peak of up to $190k
What’s your bull market prediction?
🐳 – $200k+
👍 – $170k max
🕊 – No bull run coming
The math:
What’s your bull market prediction?
🐳 – $200k+
👍 – $170k max
🕊 – No bull run coming
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💡 Investment Idea: Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is a core, foundational "supercompany" serving as irreplaceable infrastructure for the entire global semiconductor industry.
Together with its primary rival, Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence forms a global duopoly in Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software.
🤖 Without Cadence software, tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, Broadcom, and Amazon physically cannot design modern microchips. It is a vital "silent monopolist", without which the semiconductor industry would simply grind to a halt.
🚨 The company’s core moat lies in its EDA software duopoly alongside its front-runner integration of AI tools for electronic and chip design. Cadence Design Systems is an ideal candidate for a core, foundational portfolio holding.
Its valuation currently sits well below market levels, and it boasts substantially stronger financial metrics compared to Synopsys.
Together with its primary rival, Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence forms a global duopoly in Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software.
Business Overview & Competition
The company develops EDA software, hardware emulation systems, and pre-designed semiconductor IP blocks. Cadence software translates engineers' high-level architectural designs into physical transistor layouts for AI, automotive, and data centers.
The market is effectively split between two giants, Cadence and Synopsys, with Siemens EDA standing as the third notable player.
Cadence commands roughly 28–30% of the global EDA market. While not a pure monopoly, its duopoly with Synopsys controls over 60% of the entire industry. Breaking into this space is virtually impossible for a newcomer; developing comparable software demands decades of work by thousands of specialized engineers.
Long-Term Contracts
The business model relies on multi-year (typically 3-year) renewable subscriptions and licenses, boasting renewal rates exceeding 90–95%. Strategic multi-year agreements are locked in with leading tech clients (Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm) as well as U.S. government entities, including DARPA and defense contractors like Lockheed Martin.
Pros & Cons
Pros: Extremely high switching costs—engineers spend years mastering the Cadence ecosystem, making a platform shift a massive financial and operational risk for chipmakers; high ROI and strong pricing power against inflation.
Cons: Geopolitical export controls and restrictions on selling cutting-edge EDA software to China.
Its valuation currently sits well below market levels, and it boasts substantially stronger financial metrics compared to Synopsys.
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We were all waiting for a decision on the Clarity Act, but the Democrats rejected the version proposed by the Republicans. Clearly, the Democrats smell Republican "blood" ahead of the elections, and right now they are simply going to ignore anything coming from the opposing aisle.
It’s completely unclear what Trump and his Republican circle are thinking ahead of the elections. Trump was supposed to create an investor's "paradise", markets rallying across the board, rate cuts, and clear skies ahead. Yet because of Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices, that plan is stalling.
To me, it feels odd to think they will hike rates, considering Kevin Warsh (at the Fed) is clearly Trump’s appointee and someone who, judging by indirect signs, intends to flood the economy with liquidity. However, oil prices remain high and bond yields are climbing, leaving them with little other choice 🤔
When the rate-cut cycle reverses direction, markets often face a short-term shock, but they adapt and continue upward over the long run.
That said, one must realize that a 25 bps hike followed by a solid liquidity injection will still have a net positive effect on crypto and the broader markets. Whatever the rate happens to be in that specific moment won't really matter.
The smartest move right now is to wait until Wednesday, evaluate the final Fed numbers and rhetoric, and only build a trading plan once the market shows its hand.
It’s completely unclear what Trump and his Republican circle are thinking ahead of the elections. Trump was supposed to create an investor's "paradise", markets rallying across the board, rate cuts, and clear skies ahead. Yet because of Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices, that plan is stalling.
To me, it feels odd to think they will hike rates, considering Kevin Warsh (at the Fed) is clearly Trump’s appointee and someone who, judging by indirect signs, intends to flood the economy with liquidity. However, oil prices remain high and bond yields are climbing, leaving them with little other choice 🤔
When the rate-cut cycle reverses direction, markets often face a short-term shock, but they adapt and continue upward over the long run.
That said, one must realize that a 25 bps hike followed by a solid liquidity injection will still have a net positive effect on crypto and the broader markets. Whatever the rate happens to be in that specific moment won't really matter.
Just a reminder: rates were elevated prior to 2025, and that didn't stop both traditional markets and crypto from outperforming to the upside.
The smartest move right now is to wait until Wednesday, evaluate the final Fed numbers and rhetoric, and only build a trading plan once the market shows its hand.
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